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Old 08-19-2015, 03:57 PM   #3876
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Based on the Fed minutes today, US rate increase is basically a coin flip now with implied probability from fed fund futures around 45% for Sept increase.
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Old 08-19-2015, 04:03 PM   #3877
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A girl I work with downtown, told me she is buying a place in Squamish and communting...at first I thought she was nuts, but actually it makes allot of sense if you spend most of your time on the north shore and downtown. I would rather live in Squamish then Surrey.....
squamish is the new thing.

for an investor though the ship has almost sailed on it. More and more people are doing exactly what this girl is doing, and development is going to be booming there in the next few years
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Old 08-19-2015, 11:29 PM   #3878
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The bottom falls out of the real estate market, I'm stuck with a place to live that isn't worth much. The bottom falls out of the stock market, I'm stuck with nothing.
This is what I said many pages ago, I remembered getting failed and re-educated about how the system works but really I'm no financial professional, so this is still the view that I hold. I may not get filthy rich by not being able to time the markets and cash in like the pros, but I too am fortunate enough live a happy, financially stress free life
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Old 08-19-2015, 11:43 PM   #3879
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When I look at the assessment for 1789 Kent street north, then no it's not relevant.

Like I said, I am curious.
1785 seems like the ugly duckling of the area. But keep in mind land size is less that half of what is the norm on that block. Is 1789 really that out of whack?

Its nice you're curious, but if you are serious about a house in van/bby/rmd then yes the only relevance assessed values will have on you is to determine the property taxes you'll be paying. If it's a semi desirable area you better be prepared to pay what the market will pay, not what bc assessment says it was worth last year. The fact that a decent house comes with the land is really just the icing on the cake in a lot of cases it seems. It's crazy and stupid, but what can you do.
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Old 08-20-2015, 12:53 AM   #3880
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1785 seems like the ugly duckling of the area. But keep in mind land size is less that half of what is the norm on that block. Is 1789 really that out of whack?

Its nice you're curious, but if you are serious about a house in van/bby/rmd then yes the only relevance assessed values will have on you is to determine the property taxes you'll be paying. If it's a semi desirable area you better be prepared to pay what the market will pay, not what bc assessment says it was worth last year. The fact that a decent house comes with the land is really just the icing on the cake in a lot of cases it seems. It's crazy and stupid, but what can you do.
Went to this open house as I live around the area, 1789 is a pretty cool character home. Always drive by it and never been inside. I believe 1785 is/was the coach house.
I've never been to such a jammed up open house.
The house being barged in from another location is pretty cool too, but indefinitely looks out of place.
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Old 08-20-2015, 04:28 AM   #3881
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This is what I said many pages ago, I remembered getting failed and re-educated about how the system works but really I'm no financial professional, so this is still the view that I hold. I may not get filthy rich by not being able to time the markets and cash in like the pros, but I too am fortunate enough live a happy, financially stress free life
the professionals do not and can not time the market.

the media will pick up on the one time they happen to get it right, but they do not time the market with any regularity or consistency.

it's the same story of what people believe (media driven - it's amazing what sells in papers, financial programs) vs. the truth. this is the whole argument behind investing over the long term, taking the up and down times (for financial assets).

the best proof of this is warren buffet - he doesn't time anything, he buys based on value (is helped by an incredible network and ability to offer more than the average investor, but that's not the point here )
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Old 08-20-2015, 10:58 AM   #3882
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1785 seems like the ugly duckling of the area. But keep in mind land size is less that half of what is the norm on that block. Is 1789 really that out of whack?
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Went to this open house as I live around the area, 1789 is a pretty cool character home. Always drive by it and never been inside. I believe 1785 is/was the coach house.
I've never been to such a jammed up open house.
The house being barged in from another location is pretty cool too, but indefinitely looks out of place.
1789 and 1785 sit on the same piece of land. One is in the front and one is in the rear.
If 1785 is assessed at $400K, not sure how 1789 can be assessed at over $1M and they both sit on the same lot.

But again, all I am is just curious. I know assessments mean nothing to the current market.

blackG5?, what do you think of the area? When I drove by, I saw quite a few transients living out of their cars/RV's that is parked beside those empty lots.
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Old 08-20-2015, 11:21 AM   #3883
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A girl I work with downtown, told me she is buying a place in Squamish and communting...at first I thought she was nuts, but actually it makes allot of sense if you spend most of your time on the north shore and downtown. I would rather live in Squamish then Surrey.....
A coworker of mine bought a house in Squamish during the recession for about 450K. He commutes downtown in a carpool which takes about 45 minutes each way. His family is pretty outdoorsy, so I can see the appeal of living there as it aligns with his lifestyle. I think Squamish has already jumped the shark, but the renovated highway (with no bridges nor tolls) makes it basically a suburb of Metro Vancouver.

People always cite the double-digit interest rates of the 1980s as an example of why it's not a good idea to buy. Let's face it - interest rates will never be in that range in our lifetimes again. I think it's prudent that you calculate your worse-case scenario affordability using 5-6%, but I just don't see interest rates going beyond that in the short to medium term. If interest rates were to climb back to the 7-8% range, everyone of working age in this country would be screwed. We all know that this economy sits on a house of cards, but for most of us who for various reasons are unable to where the jobs are on a dime, we're stuck with it. I guess if all else fails, you could live in an RV on Kent Street and manage your e-business/portfolio using the public library.

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Old 08-20-2015, 11:24 AM   #3884
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wow 45 minutes is fast! when i had to commute from the killarney area to downtown via transit it was almost an hour each way.
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Old 08-20-2015, 11:31 AM   #3885
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wow 45 minutes is fast! when i had to commute from the killarney area to downtown via transit it was almost an hour each way.
Well, the highway is pretty solid and the Lions Gate isn't that bad if there's no accidents and if you catch it 2 lanes in your direction.

I haven't asked him how much it costs to commute, but at least it's stress-free. It helps that his wife does consulting from home, so even if the commuting costs are 250-350/month, it's worth it.
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Old 08-20-2015, 12:19 PM   #3886
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You can get from North Van to whistler in under an hour and a half no problem these days

The thing is, the upper levels highway is a fucking nightmare if there is an accident. When I worked up in British properties and lived in Surrey there was a day where it literally look me 3 hours to get home :/
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Old 08-20-2015, 12:22 PM   #3887
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Don't know bout transients but I think some of the RVs and cars are owned by people that live in the neighborhood. Just less likely to get a ticket when they park there if they are not insured. I live in a town house complex just east of Vic dr. And Marine. Can't complain, pretty quiet and it close to my work.
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Old 08-21-2015, 04:40 AM   #3888
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This story in the Sun proves that every contract you sign must be understood fully:

West End tenants cry foul over high rent hikes

Guy lives a couple (3-4) blocks from the ocean in the west end and appears to have pretty cheap rent (I say that as it says it's a newly renovated interior, good location, and if rent has gone up 20%, he was probably under market rent at $1,5xx), signs a certain type of contract that allows rental increases to whatever the market will bear at lease end, complains when rental increase happens... then goes and buys a place.

no where does the article state what his monthly outlay is on the bought apartment, or if it's like for like. good journalism would probably want to mention that.

when his 5 year mortgage goes up for renewal at higher rates, will he complain to the Vancouver Sun? What about if he tries to sell and has a huge fee to break his mortgage - does he understand that? will he complain to the Sun (which would appear to be anti-renting, or is it anti-landlords?)

this article really rubbed me the wrong way... not so much about rent vs. buy, but more about this whiny bitch who is clearly a bit of an idiot (or at least comes off that way).

NEVER SIGN ANYTHING YOU CAN'T EXPLAIN IN DETAIL TO SOMEONE ELSE

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Old 08-21-2015, 08:33 AM   #3889
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when his 5 year mortgage goes up for renewal at higher rates, will he complain to the Vancouver Sun? What about if he tries to sell and has a huge fee to break his mortgage - does he understand that? will he complain to the Sun (which would appear to be anti-renting, or is it anti-landlords?)

this article really rubbed me the wrong way... not so much about rent vs. buy, but more about this whiny bitch who is clearly a bit of an idiot (or at least comes off that way).

NEVER SIGN ANYTHING YOU CAN'T EXPLAIN IN DETAIL TO SOMEONE ELSE
I guess this story feeds into your overall perspective on Vancouver and the people here (after all, that's why you left), but what makes you think that this guy will be in a world of pain when his first mortgage comes up for renewal? Even if interest rates rise 2% in 5 years time, how much will that raise his payment? We're not talking about a million dollar home here.

Like I said before, what if the assumptions about fundamentals, and affordability are now wrong?
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Old 08-21-2015, 09:04 AM   #3890
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Like I said before, what if the assumptions about fundamentals, and affordability are now wrong?
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Old 08-21-2015, 11:16 AM   #3891
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I guess this story feeds into your overall perspective on Vancouver and the people here (after all, that's why you left), but what makes you think that this guy will be in a world of pain when his first mortgage comes up for renewal? Even if interest rates rise 2% in 5 years time, how much will that raise his payment? We're not talking about a million dollar home here.

Like I said before, what if the assumptions about fundamentals, and affordability are now wrong?
Let's make some assumptions here.

Factually, rent is cheaper than ownership.

If he was so offended at paying $1,800 for his place, and has bought an identical place, undoubtedly he is paying more. Add 2% higher rates, in today's economic environment in Canada and vancouver, I highly doubt this guy will be able to easily afford this increase.

Based on the article, he comes across as somewhat clueless (not knowing what he was signing, or being surprised by the rate increase for rent), so I assume he hasn't considered rate rises. I would bank on the realtor and mortgage specialist not even raising affordability concerns in light of potential rate increases in 5 years.

Just my thoughts, ur welcome to disagree.
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Old 08-24-2015, 11:55 PM   #3892
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Will China's stock market plunge affect Vancouver real estate?

Will China's stock market plunge affect Vancouver real estate? - British Columbia - CBC News

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Old 08-25-2015, 12:38 AM   #3893
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^ should learn from the Korean, they only let the Chinese to buy Real Estate on Jeju Island, not on the main land. Should consider sending them all to Vancouver Island
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Old 08-25-2015, 12:39 AM   #3894
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The answer is probably no

The things is if you think macroly, there are only 2 remaining avenues of investing that is over inflation 1 is RE and the other is stock market.. As US recovers, Canadian RE will be more attractive to them (much like the 90s)... but unlike the 90s where we have bonds etc, with rock bottom inflation it is either stock or RE, when stocks are volatile, people will head to the other only option left... RE.

Honestly if you are well financed and can pay off a mortgage in 10-15 years.. it is a perfect time to buy.. since the rates even if double is not that much.

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Will China's stock market plunge affect Vancouver real estate?

Will China's stock market plunge affect Vancouver real estate? - British Columbia - CBC News

Spoiler!

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Old 08-25-2015, 07:31 AM   #3895
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huh... when stocks are volatile investors move into bonds lol not RE.
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Old 08-25-2015, 09:12 AM   #3896
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Took all but a bit of my investments out of the stock market for the down payment 1 month ago. Thank fuck. Now when are people going to start selling off their aircooled Porsches since their stocks tanked?
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Old 08-25-2015, 11:15 AM   #3897
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Re: China, I watched an investigative report done by the CBC and they said that roughly only 15% of Chinese have any investment within the stock market, as opposed to 60%+ of North Americans.

Would think a big chunk of those 15% are the wealthy but goes to show a lot of their liquidity won't be directly effected by the markets
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Old 08-25-2015, 12:22 PM   #3898
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In text book cases where bond yield is much closer to stock yield maybe.. but we are not anywhere close to text book case.. we have had 8 years of continuous QE now we have too much liquidity...

Basically the money flows where the most yields are... right now it is not in bonds. As you go down the investment list.. RE yield is still pretty high up there.

Bond yield actually decreased the last few days.

Just like Vancouver real estate prices.. everyone says it will crash.. but so far.. we are back to normal levels.

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huh... when stocks are volatile investors move into bonds lol not RE.
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Old 08-25-2015, 01:37 PM   #3899
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Took all but a bit of my investments out of the stock market for the down payment 1 month ago. Thank fuck. Now when are people going to start selling off their aircooled Porsches since their stocks tanked?
I also took all my money out of the stock market in June to buy another house. Not selling my 993 just yet. (Although Silver Arrow wants to buy it and send it south)

You guys may want to consider Victoria if you want to own and can stand the ferries. For $1.2 million I have two houses and condo (half share that I am selling to my business partner.)

Condo is in Langford and is a 2009 1 bed 1 bath granite counters, stainless etc. Rented out. Purchased 2011 for $235k

House #1 in Langford (suburbia) is a 2010 with a purpose built 2 bd 1 bath suite down and 3 bed 2 bath up both rented. Purchased 2012 for $455k

House #2 is in Saanich just purchased July 1st 2015. 10 mins to downtown Vic. .27 acre lot, 1939 with 1982 addition taking it from 2 bed 1 bath to 3 bed 2 bath and 2 big family rooms and basement space. Long two car garage in the house plus a 700 sq ft workshop in the back. (That sold me )
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Old 08-25-2015, 02:21 PM   #3900
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At that price in Langford I'd be fairly wary of any increase in value due to future developments in the area
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