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Old 07-10-2013, 10:12 PM   #926
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It's all simple economics, rates will go up to the per crash rates of 5-6%, affordability will, thus, go down, prices will compensate accordingly, at this time I will likely buy with a 30% downpayment, perhaps more (depends on returns on a diversified investment portfolio at this time, should be 8-10%)

Now, people think, blindly that rates are here to stay - how? Interest rates are a monetary tool to speed up or slow down the economy when need be. If rates are at, effectively 0%, what happens if our economy starts stalling - we NEED rates to normalize so that the next time things f up, rates can be brought back down to allow for easier lending

Now, all of this is overly simplified - but the point remains. The US worked it quite well. Emergency low rates, the economy has turned around GDP per capita is stronger, employment improving, rates are thus increasing (due to fed action), will slow down the growth, but that's necessary as otherwise we'll just bubble again

Unfortunately for Canada, we didn't crash when we should have, due to commodities - the strong dollar has fucked us over - export businesses hurt beyond belief, consumers are loving it, but that's no good for our economy, we're spending money outside of Canada.

What has happened since 2008 in Canada doesn't bode too well for the next 5 years. Sell Canada, buy US is still the right move - not as good as it was 6 months ago (the latter part), I'm just glad the majority of my net worth is in the US and denominated in US $, beyond the increase in asset values in the US, with up coming tapering of QE, the US $ will continue to strengthen, which will continue to hurt commodities above and beyond the china story.

All in all, none of these things bode well for joe public home owner who has entered the market since about 2005, 2006 (let's not forget, house prices in Vancouver and Canada were low up to 2003... What happened then, lending regulators got lax, rates went down, real estate started a stupid rise which has now entirely decoupled from fundamentals (price to income, price to rent) - we WILL return to these fundamentals within the next 5 years, I'd guess nearer 3.

We're fucked, be liquid, earn income from your assets, and never take on 'cheap' money - rates and prices are, generally, inversely related (there are studies that disclaim this, but they're weak and have too many things over simplified to make the point)
Do you see any similarities as to what happened in Ireland as to what will happen here?

3 years for a return to fundamentals eh.
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Old 07-14-2013, 10:53 AM   #927
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Hey 444...is this your blog?

Book and Weblog ? Authored by Garth Turner ? Greater Fool ? Authored by Garth Turner ? The Troubled Future of Real Estate

This guy is a realist on real estate, but its nice that he's calling real estate boards out for their bullshit. Spoiler alert! They lie.
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Old 07-14-2013, 11:00 AM   #928
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I like Garth Turner but although I agree that condos are going to tank, I don't agree with the amount of % decline for SFH as he is projecting.

Plus he caters to people who are old or with families... if you are young, take more risks instead of ETF's and preferred! Not saying shove it all into individual stocks/gold but allocate more of your % into risk.
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Old 07-16-2013, 11:07 AM   #929
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Hey 444...is this your blog?

Book and Weblog ? Authored by Garth Turner ? Greater Fool ? Authored by Garth Turner ? The Troubled Future of Real Estate

This guy is a realist on real estate, but its nice that he's calling real estate boards out for their bullshit. Spoiler alert! They lie.
i frequent that site for a daily read - Garth speaks common sense, simple as that - don't buy into bubbles, stay conservative, invest in assets that pay you while you wait for slow, but pretty much sure, capital appreciation.

i do like the amount of information he gets re: real estate and all the BS that goes with it, he is a great source for up to date information
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Old 07-16-2013, 11:10 AM   #930
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I like Garth Turner but although I agree that condos are going to tank, I don't agree with the amount of % decline for SFH as he is projecting.

Plus he caters to people who are old or with families... if you are young, take more risks instead of ETF's and preferred! Not saying shove it all into individual stocks/gold but allocate more of your % into risk.
i do and don't agree with you - i agree that you should have more exposure to 'risk', i.e. growth markets (global markets, S&P 500, etc) - but these should all be had through ETFs, diversification is key at all ages, it just decreases your risk, while maintaining your return - so risk adjusted, you're getting way higher returns.

unless you have hundreds of thousands of dollars, etfs are the best way to go - most of us don't have the time or the expertise to invest wisely in individual stocks - i feel i have hte latter, but not the former, hence i only invest in longer term investments, mostly through ETFs - if i didn't work for a living, i'd be in a different situation, but i enjoy utilizing my free time to do fun stuff, not review financials and read articles all the time
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Old 07-16-2013, 11:14 AM   #931
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Do you see any similarities as to what happened in Ireland as to what will happen here?

3 years for a return to fundamentals eh.
i don't know enough about what happened in Ireland to comment, was a lot of that not to do with the short term bump you get from joining the EU (low tax rates) - but it's the same thing the world over - fundamentals were out of whack in ireland, they came back to the norm (well, actually they overshot the norm, as ALL bursting bubbles do).

just give it time here, people in the US didn't think they could see a bubble either, now our mindset is that US housing is 'cheap' - it's not cheap, it's about long term normal... Canada is just out of whack, hindsight is 20/20 and we will sit back in a couple of years and say 'oh ya, why would anyone spend over a million bucks on a 50's build shit hole in east van? it's worth maybe $300-400K at most'

long term, real estate is valued based on income, both personal income and rental income (those two usually move lock step - have we not noticed that personal incomes aren't moving in Vancouver, nor are rental prices, yet housing prices have gone up ever since 2003 - 2003, the year rates started coming down and the government eased up on lending requirements... am i the only one seeing this?!)
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Old 07-16-2013, 11:46 AM   #932
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long term, real estate is valued based on income, both personal income and rental income (those two usually move lock step - have we not noticed that personal incomes aren't moving in Vancouver, nor are rental prices, yet housing prices have gone up ever since 2003 - 2003, the year rates started coming down and the government eased up on lending requirements... am i the only one seeing this?!)
I will add a couple of points from experience and observation.

Official statistics don't capture the class of immigrants who don't work but bring over millions in cash. It's not just the Chinese, the Saudis are here too especially if you spend time downtown - the number of covered up women with kids is plainly evident.

Of course, drug dealers who prefer to rent newer buildings can easily keep the condo market afloat too. My building was heavily invested by first-time homeowners who rented their suites out to dubious tenants.
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Old 07-16-2013, 12:09 PM   #933
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And now we're talking rentals..and that's now where I can speak to.

In my mind, the worst thing that happened to the condo market was the investor class. You can have a person that puts down their %5-20%(more the 5ers) and buys into a box. They say yay! no more renting! Living next to trash.

Then they meet their neighbor. He is either a drug dealer(Van) or a drug user(surrey) We rent out our townhouse. Guess who lives in the block behind? A Bacon.

Why? What has Gridlock railed against on rs(and others)? Amateur frigging landlords that don't get it. Oh he looks delightful! look! He brought a pocket full of cash...so rent won't be an issue. Joy.

The rental market is softening out here in the 'burbs. Don't quite know why yet. Everyone going out to Surrey? Mom's basement? Maybe the other way...Vancouver is getting cheaper so they are going in.

It has been getting a bit more difficult to rent out stuff. So quality of person is down a smidge, as is rent.
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Old 07-16-2013, 12:47 PM   #934
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I will add a couple of points from experience and observation.

Official statistics don't capture the class of immigrants who don't work but bring over millions in cash. It's not just the Chinese, the Saudis are here too especially if you spend time downtown - the number of covered up women with kids is plainly evident.

Of course, drug dealers who prefer to rent newer buildings can easily keep the condo market afloat too. My building was heavily invested by first-time homeowners who rented their suites out to dubious tenants.
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the rich immigrant class of purchaser gets 99% of the attention, but buys 1% of the properties - they cannot affect the housing market, they're too small.

if you think about it, consider arizona, las vegas, florida after the downturn - they are what people think vancouver is today, with investors buying up all the property and affecting the price - does not happen. prices in those places tanked, something like 50%+ of sales were to investors out of state (huge number were canadian, including myself) - guess what, prices stabalized, but the real ramp up in prices (from HUGELY below long term average, and hugely below cost to rebuild) was driven by locals who now have the confidence and ability to buy properties again.

look at california - prices are really high there, it's locals. the number of investors in the US are decreasing relative to locals as prices go up and yields have become unattractive, risk adjusted - this is the case for me.

as for drug dealer renters, and i am by no means an expert, but drug dealing is like any business, as is being a gangster - the top 'executives' make all the money, they'll be the flash ones in nice houses paying for everything in cash (until they go to jail or get killed) - but all the drug pusher foot soldiers still live at home with their mum's because they make no money. drug dealers won't ever have any material effect on the rental market.

again, 99% of the attraction in news articles/media, 1% of reality
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Old 07-16-2013, 01:39 PM   #935
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the rich immigrant class of purchaser gets 99% of the attention, but buys 1% of the properties - they cannot affect the housing market, they're too small.


as for drug dealer renters, and i am by no means an expert, but drug dealing is like any business, as is being a gangster - the top 'executives' make all the money, they'll be the flash ones in nice houses paying for everything in cash (until they go to jail or get killed) - but all the drug pusher foot soldiers still live at home with their mum's because they make no money. drug dealers won't ever have any material effect on the rental market.

again, 99% of the attraction in news articles/media, 1% of reality
I don't think we can discount the difference in immigration laws between the US and Canada. We have the investor class which basically allows anyone with enough money to buy PR in Canada. Also, we have a fairly open ended skilled worker immigration class that favours university educated, English speaking immigrants.

We don't know if it's 1% or 99% because no one actually collects statistics on RE purchaser demographics. But, the odds are that it's more than 1% of the RE market.

On the other hand, your typical foot soldier drug dealer makes enough money to survive: rent on a new condo, lease payment for that Range Rover, money for 40s of Grey Goose, meals at Cactus/Joey, etc. They can't save their money, so they spend it all toys and lifestyle. I used to work for one of the chains and I would see it all of the time in my neighbourhood.
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Old 07-16-2013, 02:32 PM   #936
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I used to work for one of the chains and I would see it all of the time in my neighbourhood.
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Not that this has anything to do with RE, but no, no you didn't.

You saw one, maybe two guys that were actually in industry. You saw 30 guys that like to LOOK like they are in the industry. It's Vancouver...looking the part IS the part.
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Old 07-16-2013, 02:34 PM   #937
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I don't think we can discount the difference in immigration laws between the US and Canada. We have the investor class which basically allows anyone with enough money to buy PR in Canada. Also, we have a fairly open ended skilled worker immigration class that favours university educated, English speaking immigrants.

We don't know if it's 1% or 99% because no one actually collects statistics on RE purchaser demographics. But, the odds are that it's more than 1% of the RE market.

On the other hand, your typical foot soldier drug dealer makes enough money to survive: rent on a new condo, lease payment for that Range Rover, money for 40s of Grey Goose, meals at Cactus/Joey, etc. They can't save their money, so they spend it all toys and lifestyle. I used to work for one of the chains and I would see it all of the time in my neighbourhood.
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i think we'll have to agree to disagree on some of these points, as you rightly say there just isn't the hard evidence and numbers behind any of it - i have my opinions, and I'll respect yours
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Old 07-17-2013, 11:02 PM   #938
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Pick of the week.

REALTOR.ca -Property Details V998455

Bit of a fixer, but listed at a steal.

Tell me realtors of the land, tell me that now is the time to buy Vancouver houses.

Edit...looked into it further, and this is down the road for 75k more, so I don't know what kind of crack the owners of house #1 are smoking.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetail...Key=1302252640
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Old 07-17-2013, 11:36 PM   #939
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i don't know enough about what happened in Ireland to comment, was a lot of that not to do with the short term bump you get from joining the EU (low tax rates) - but it's the same thing the world over - fundamentals were out of whack in ireland, they came back to the norm (well, actually they overshot the norm, as ALL bursting bubbles do).

just give it time here, people in the US didn't think they could see a bubble either, now our mindset is that US housing is 'cheap' - it's not cheap, it's about long term normal... Canada is just out of whack, hindsight is 20/20 and we will sit back in a couple of years and say 'oh ya, why would anyone spend over a million bucks on a 50's build shit hole in east van? it's worth maybe $300-400K at most'

long term, real estate is valued based on income, both personal income and rental income (those two usually move lock step - have we not noticed that personal incomes aren't moving in Vancouver, nor are rental prices, yet housing prices have gone up ever since 2003 - 2003, the year rates started coming down and the government eased up on lending requirements... am i the only one seeing this?!)
I guess it's your typical bubble psychology.
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:04 AM   #940
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Pick of the week.

REALTOR.ca -Property Details V998455

Bit of a fixer, but listed at a steal.

Tell me realtors of the land, tell me that now is the time to buy Vancouver houses.

Edit...looked into it further, and this is down the road for 75k more, so I don't know what kind of crack the owners of house #1 are smoking.

REALTOR.ca -Property Details V1011179
They're both crazy. First one "value is in the land" - fuck off, second one, whilst nice, I'd pay.. $400k for, tops. Lets not forget 10 years ago, that place would have gone for about that, and I'm not a fan of old, so I would lowball at the $400k mark given

I hate the ppl in this city sometimes for their stupidity, but they will cry as they're in mortgages (not houses) they can't afford
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:12 AM   #941
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Why? As an investor, I prefer having sheep around. I have plenty of patience.

Do you guys check the foreclosure list that is posted at BC Law courts every morning?

The 2 listings are not that insane though.. it is in Mt Pleasant.. A "hipster" / desirable/ switching to high density area of Van West. I would say too bad the first one is short 8 foot width. It will be insane if people will fix it up, they should tear down for high density... What is insane is places in East Van.. Rupert etc asking for the same price.

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I hate the ppl in this city sometimes for their stupidity, but they will cry as they're in mortgages (not houses) they can't afford

Last edited by godwin; 07-18-2013 at 12:22 AM.
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:18 AM   #942
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They're both crazy. First one "value is in the land" - fuck off, second one, whilst nice, I'd pay.. $400k for, tops. Lets not forget 10 years ago, that place would have gone for about that, and I'm not a fan of old, so I would lowball at the $400k mark given

I hate the ppl in this city sometimes for their stupidity, but they will cry as they're in mortgages (not houses) they can't afford
The first guy is gouging. I looked at it, had a chuckle and then thought that Mount Pleasant was a shithole when last I lived in East Van. I guess its not now?

And no crying...they'll get bailed man.

Sales numbers are down. We're being told that this is "cyclical" or "returning to normal" but prices are remaining at their levels. I don't know about you all, but if things aren't selling as much, isn't the next reality to sell for less when that happens?

My prediction, based on a bunch of hunch is that what I'm noticing now, which is a lot of sales in my area of detached homes represents that last push. People wanting out soon, are getting out now. People that have been waiting see the low interest as their reason to jump in. Here in New West, we're a bit of a value proposition, so people come out a little further to make affording it possible.

That's my theory anyway.
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:34 AM   #943
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OH and PS. Was driving down Marine tonight past the Marine Gateway project by the Canada Line.

Totally smelled like hot sweaty trash, so congrats to the fine folks that bought into Rennie's concrete wetdream there.

That's alright, just ask the guys in New West that bought condos next to train tracks how well moving them went
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Old 07-18-2013, 10:11 AM   #944
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Not that this has anything to do with RE, but no, no you didn't.

You saw one, maybe two guys that were actually in industry. You saw 30 guys that like to LOOK like they are in the industry. It's Vancouver...looking the part IS the part.
I base my assessment on the number of RCMP SUVs outside the restaurant every weekend. Or, the people who carried murses, wore obnoxious clothing, and who literally peeled their onions of hundreds in front of me.
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Old 07-18-2013, 10:51 AM   #945
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Pick of the week.

REALTOR.ca -Property Details V998455

Bit of a fixer, but listed at a steal.

Tell me realtors of the land, tell me that now is the time to buy Vancouver houses.

Edit...looked into it further, and this is down the road for 75k more, so I don't know what kind of crack the owners of house #1 are smoking.

REALTOR.ca -Property Details V1011179
The first property is 25x132, narrower but longer than the standard Vancouver lot size of 33x122.

The second property is 56x65, wider than normal, but quite shallow (and less area than a standard lot).

I bought a POS house on a 32x122 lot near Langara in May 2012 for just under $1M...

I'm in the process of building a new house (around $600K), so the finished product will cost me $1.6M in total. This will be my primary residence though.
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Old 07-18-2013, 11:03 AM   #946
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The first property is 25x132, narrower but longer than the standard Vancouver lot size of 33x122.

The second property is 56x65, wider than normal, but quite shallow (and less area than a standard lot).

I bought a POS house on a 32x122 lot near Langara in May 2012 for just under $1M...

I'm in the process of building a new house (around $600K), so the finished product will cost me $1.6M in total. This will be my primary residence though.
ok...can I ask, as an actual first person buyer of RE in Vancouver...how old are you, and what do you do?

**edit, sorry and yes. I didn't get into the specifics on finding a comp for the first house. I just saw a house of similar style and bedroom count. Obviously you get more land on the first deal, which is the value driver.
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Old 07-18-2013, 11:03 AM   #947
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With Bernanke and BoC's indication.. it will look like cheap credit will be around till 2014.. I say 2015 because that's election year.. I am sure the PC would only worry about the bubble after that (or burst it if other parties get into power). So looks like there is still 2 years to play.
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Old 07-18-2013, 11:09 AM   #948
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I bought a POS house on a 32x122 lot near Langara in May 2012 for just under $1M...
dayuuum...

I bought a a house 33x99 in the collingwood area in 09 for under $600 in 2009 and i was complaining it was too much

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I'm in the process of building a new house (around $600K), so the finished product will cost me $1.6M in total. This will be my primary residence though.
that number of $600k, how skookum is that house? we were thinking of either building a new house or moving to a newer house in a better location in the future and i thought building a new house would have ran for around $300k
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Old 07-18-2013, 11:21 AM   #949
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There are so many variables.. like if you want a coach house etc?

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that number of $600k, how skookum is that house? we were thinking of either building a new house or moving to a newer house in a better location in the future and i thought building a new house would have ran for around $300k
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Old 07-18-2013, 12:03 PM   #950
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ok...can I ask, as an actual first person buyer of RE in Vancouver...how old are you, and what do you do?

**edit, sorry and yes. I didn't get into the specifics on finding a comp for the first house. I just saw a house of similar style and bedroom count. Obviously you get more land on the first deal, which is the value driver.
I'm married in in my mid-30s, so not your typical RS user. I work in a "just-below-managerial" position in a large institution, so job security isn't an issue (fingers-crossed). I was very lucky to have bought low in 2003 and sold high in 2012 so that I had a significant downpayment. Therefore, I am not a first-time home buyer.

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dayuuum...

I bought a a house 33x99 in the collingwood area in 09 for under $600 in 2009 and i was complaining it was too much

that number of $600k, how skookum is that house? we were thinking of either building a new house or moving to a newer house in a better location in the future and i thought building a new house would have ran for around $300k
My general contractor's estimate for a basic 2-level house on a standard lot in Vancouver is $350k, or $550k for a basement + 2-level. He is Asian, so that makes him cheaper than a Caucasian building company, but not as cheap as your typical EI builder! He's a family member (and I actually trust him) so he's helping us save wherever possible (including on his "project management fee"), and I'm confident that no corners will be cut. He's also made a lot of minor adjustments to the house plans to make improvements (eg. adjusted the internals of our staircase so that the hot water tank can fit underneath; saves us from putting it in the laundry room, giving us more "space"). A regular GC is not obligated to do that!

Go look at open houses in Vancouver West and Vancouver East, and you'll notice a huge difference in quality of materials, style, and expectations. For example, west side houses will have 10' ceilings on the main floor, theatre rooms and wet bars in the basement, and rentable basement suites will be an afterthought. A house on the east side won't have the super high ceilings, and the basements are almost always built with 1 legal 2-br suite, and another not-so-legal suite.

With that said, you would never build a "basic" house in the west side. My house is on the borderline, just west of Main, so it would pale in comparison to a west side house. However, it would probably be one of the nicer east side houses. If you could categorize Vancouver houses as basic, custom, and luxury, I would put myself in the middle category.

PM me if you want more details.

Edit: I don't think your 33x99 lot qualifies for a laneway house - which would cost an extra 100-200K. And 10 years ago, you could probably build a brand new 3-level house for $300k. Sadly, construction costs have risen...
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Last edited by Gumby; 07-18-2013 at 12:55 PM.
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