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Old 10-06-2013, 11:16 PM   #1326
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Conversation has been pretty light in the last two pages.... Let me try to plunge it back to deep dark discussion

I've been reading this thread for awhile but had nothing good to contribute, so I just kept reading, however something has been bugging me recently, its about rent. We don't know when the drop is going to happen if it happens at all(I believe it will, its just a matter of time), but when it happens, what is going to happen to rent prices?

Right now housing prices and rent is completely unhinged, partly cause housing prices are retardedly high, but also I think due to the demand for rental units is at a all time low as everyone is buying and no one is renting, pushing rents down.

When the drop happens, rates will go up, people can't refinance, housing prices will drop = a lot of upside-down mortgages and a bunch of defaults. A lot of these people will be forced to rent, increasing demand for rental units.

At the same time there are speculators where if it drops enough, will buy a bunch of these cheap properties and rent them out, bringing up the supply.

So my question is, what do you think will happen to rental prices and units? We are renting a 400sqft ground floor suite right now, thinking of possibly making a move to an apartment rental later next year. Would be be wise to lock up a rental contract at the end of 2014 to guaranty ourselves low rent for the short term(12months)?

My predictions are rents are going to go up at least for 10-12 months as people start to default and get foreclosed. Until housing prices reach the bottom and people start buying again and more rental units show up on the market the rental prices won't start coming down until 18-24 months later. This is based purely on what I can see, and what my economics degree taught me, please do correct me if I'm wrong.
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Old 10-06-2013, 11:29 PM   #1327
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with home ownership and mortgage debt at an all time high I doubt rent prices will go up much. if you look through the local ads on renting there are so many choices out there as a lot of homeowners desperately need the extra income.
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Old 10-07-2013, 12:25 AM   #1328
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Rent is super stable. As you said, its disconnected from ownership costs. Rent what you can afford, and don't worry about locking in. If rent in your area plummets, you negotiate( no one ever does) or move.
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Old 10-07-2013, 12:28 AM   #1329
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Originally Posted by EvoFire View Post
Conversation has been pretty light in the last two pages.... Let me try to plunge it back to deep dark discussion

I've been reading this thread for awhile but had nothing good to contribute, so I just kept reading, however something has been bugging me recently, its about rent. We don't know when the drop is going to happen if it happens at all(I believe it will, its just a matter of time), but when it happens, what is going to happen to rent prices?

Right now housing prices and rent is completely unhinged, partly cause housing prices are retardedly high, but also I think due to the demand for rental units is at a all time low as everyone is buying and no one is renting, pushing rents down.

When the drop happens, rates will go up, people can't refinance, housing prices will drop = a lot of upside-down mortgages and a bunch of defaults. A lot of these people will be forced to rent, increasing demand for rental units.

At the same time there are speculators where if it drops enough, will buy a bunch of these cheap properties and rent them out, bringing up the supply.

So my question is, what do you think will happen to rental prices and units? We are renting a 400sqft ground floor suite right now, thinking of possibly making a move to an apartment rental later next year. Would be be wise to lock up a rental contract at the end of 2014 to guaranty ourselves low rent for the short term(12months)?

My predictions are rents are going to go up at least for 10-12 months as people start to default and get foreclosed. Until housing prices reach the bottom and people start buying again and more rental units show up on the market the rental prices won't start coming down until 18-24 months later. This is based purely on what I can see, and what my economics degree taught me, please do correct me if I'm wrong.
Rent can only be increase every 12 months and that raise is no more than the specific allowable amount set forth by the Residential Tenancy Branch. Rates for the following year are released every Sept/Oct so you will be able to see what max increase you will receive.

Almost everyone gets a rental increase until an apartment reaches market value. Once an apartment reaches market value the increase will most likely decrease (maybe 5-20$)....it is all subjective.

The rental market in Downtown Vancouver is driven by demand. Everywhere (Burnaby/Coquitlam/NewWest/Surrey/etc) else tends to be around the same (variation of about $100-ish) with an increase the closer you are to the city and/or proximity to transit and age of building. Newer buildings are always more but you can be stuck in a much smaller space.

Example: I have a couple building by HighGate Mall in Burnaby....1960s, hardwood floors, etc but they are well maintained and a 1 bedroom apt is $800 for about 900 square feet. One block away you can rent a brand new condo at $1200 for 450 square feet.

So, you ask will rents go up? crash? Rents will always go up. The rate of increase may slow, but owners can not afford to decrease (significantly) and freezing rates will hurt. There are times I will have units for $850 that are snapped up with a day...other times I need to price drop to $825. Not a big deal...but they won't be dropping to $700.

At least...thats my opinion.
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Old 10-08-2013, 12:43 AM   #1330
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I thought this guy's insights very insightful. A bit basic and common sense though.

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Old 10-09-2013, 08:29 PM   #1331
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I'm an older guy and still can't afford to buy a place because of the pricing as well as the mortgage rules. It's why I moved into cars, lol.

But seriously the amount of high rises going up is insane. Drive through the Tri-Cities and you'll see. People flock to Vancouver to work and then flock back to burbs to be all like 'lol I'm away from all dat noise'.

I highly recommend driving through Glen Dr. in Coquitlam to envision the future of that city. Greenspace is dwindling.

And then we wonder why our traffic is shit...

And we wonder why bear sightings are more prevalent...

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Old 10-09-2013, 09:51 PM   #1332
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I'm an older guy and still can't afford to buy a place because of the pricing as well as the mortgage rules. It's why I moved into cars, lol.

But seriously the amount of high rises going up is insane. Drive through the Tri-Cities and you'll see. People flock to Vancouver to work and then flock back to burbs to be all like 'lol I'm away from all dat noise'.

I highly recommend driving through Glen Dr. in Coquitlam to envision the future of that city. Greenspace is dwindling.

And then we wonder why our traffic is shit...

And we wonder why bear sightings are more prevalent...

glen dr. in coquitlam i'm fine with. it's in a central area, you want density near a future skytrain station.

I don't like how the city is building soo much new housing in Burke Mountain. There's soo many bears, deers and wild animals there. It's literally acres upon acres of forest land that got demolished so we can build low quality spec housing. The houses are literally on a mountain forest. I just hope it doesn't go further north and further east. If you live in the area, chances are you will see bears every week.
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Old 10-09-2013, 10:38 PM   #1333
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Just even talking about traffic in Fleetwood by my house. I have noticed it go up probably two fold in about a year. And it's only getting worse. 152nd is a cluster fark.
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Old 10-10-2013, 09:02 PM   #1334
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I'm just going to point out the pink elephant here. (On what some people believe) - it's stereotypical but hey, stereotypes have some ounce of truth in them.

Asians/punjabi (brown) have poor build quality.

White/European have higher build quality, don't cheap out on materials.

Or it's like what I heard in China, have a white person on your company = success.
So why wouldn't you want to buy a house made by a white person?
this is true, buyers would rather buy a house built by a "white" person rather then chinese or east indian. even the punjabi realtors themselves have admitted this.

this is why you see a lot of comments on MLS highlighting "european builder", or "italian builder". you wont see no "chinese or east indian" builder remarks.
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Old 10-11-2013, 08:56 AM   #1335
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you wont see no "chinese or east indian" builder remarks.
when it is, i've seen 'custom built' in the listing
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Old 10-16-2013, 11:14 AM   #1336
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Video: A longtime housing bear surveys the market - The Globe and Mail

just another opinion, but it's nice to see a paper publish this vs. the global house pumping party.
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Old 10-16-2013, 01:29 PM   #1337
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Video: A longtime housing bear surveys the market - The Globe and Mail

just another opinion, but it's nice to see a paper publish this vs. the global house pumping party.
Not the most "rambunctious" interviewer there. He kind of has a face for print work.

I think the next tone shift will be in terms of mitigating declines, "we're stable at 10%...bargain territory!" Prices are down but sales are up...come on in! That kind of crap.

I'd like to see their database opened up so we can paint our own pictures of what is happening.
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:38 PM   #1338
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Not the most "rambunctious" interviewer there. He kind of has a face for print work.

I think the next tone shift will be in terms of mitigating declines, "we're stable at 10%...bargain territory!" Prices are down but sales are up...come on in! That kind of crap.

I'd like to see their database opened up so we can paint our own pictures of what is happening.
that's rob carrick, and yes, he is totally not a tv personality type (he is a print journalist, not sure why he did this interview video)

it's just taking so slow because people are so stupid and still believe we're different... ugh
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:14 PM   #1339
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well the last time real estate had a real drop was in the 80's during the crisis.

mortgage rates were 21%... people were dumping their properties fast.
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Old 10-16-2013, 04:06 PM   #1340
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well the last time real estate had a real drop was in the 80's during the crisis.

mortgage rates were 21%... people were dumping their properties fast.
that's what makes this time around so interesting, and so uncomparable to any other time.

throughout our parents' lifetime, a time where buying and holding real estate made you a small sum of money, interest rates have been going down, from in the 20's % down to basically nothing... where can we go from here? rates cannot stay this low for much longer, as inflation is starting to become an issue, and to cool that we must raise rates... but on the flipside, whenever we had issues, was just easy to lower rates to promote borrowing and growth... no can do anymore. i really wonder what the powers that be will do when we next slow down???!

i have to say, right now is historically such a bad time to buy, i still can't believe people are so blind to it, but hey, not my concern when they lose their shirts and are stuck paying for a house, losing mobillity, freedom, and wealth... our parents really fucked us over on this one - things are WAY riskier at 3% interest than they ever were at 21% interest rates
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Old 10-16-2013, 04:17 PM   #1341
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i have to say, right now is historically such a bad time to buy, i still can't believe people are so blind to it, but hey, not my concern when they lose their shirts and are stuck paying for a house, losing mobillity, freedom, and wealth... our parents really fucked us over on this one - things are WAY riskier at 3% interest than they ever were at 21% interest rates
why do you say our parents fucked us over?

on another note - the banker that helps my family bumped in to my wife and she mentioned that what she's noticing (i guess from clients since she does mortgages too at the bank) is that pricing for old homes are not increasing while pricing for new homes are.

any truth or comments on that? if so, any ideas as to what is the driving force behind that?
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Old 10-16-2013, 04:44 PM   #1342
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On top of every other bad thing we've done, no one wants the fixer upper anymore.

My parents bought a house with a working toilet in the living room. It was $14,000. Water frontage at that.

So, along with the toilet in the living room, it kind of had a kitchen, not a lick of insulation in the place and I kind of remember this skanky orange carpet in the front hall.

We painted during summers. They re-did the front hall(no skank) when I was about 4. The kitchen was a big one. Mom finally had her big country kitchen she wanted.

The point here is, it was a fixer upper in every way possible. They didn't buy it to make it big in real estate, or flip for big bucks.

They bought it to raise kids and live in.

Now?

Granite counters please, and whats the warranty again? OMG...that lawn will take like 20 minutes to cut.

Hey, it's 600,000...that totally sounds reasonable! Sign me the fuck up. We were buying these things on 40 year mortgages, and now we're back to 25...think that moved the price? No!
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Old 10-16-2013, 04:50 PM   #1343
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why do you say our parents fucked us over?

on another note - the banker that helps my family bumped in to my wife and she mentioned that what she's noticing (i guess from clients since she does mortgages too at the bank) is that pricing for old homes are not increasing while pricing for new homes are.

any truth or comments on that? if so, any ideas as to what is the driving force behind that?
they fucked us by lowering rates all the time, and now that they're retiring at the peak, we have nowhere to go but increasing rates, which sucks for us, as a generation or two.

as for no one wanting older properties anymore, i would suggest this is a sign of the times that people are not buying older dumps to knock down and build a mcmansion on... but this was just one comment from one guy, so who knows whats really happening (i have my thoughts, but boy will it take a long time to prove it out)
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Old 10-16-2013, 04:51 PM   #1344
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lol

My friend bought a Duplex for $550,000

It was a serious fixer upper due to previous tenancy. He must of sank another $60k in renovations and landscaping. Now he struggles to make mortgage payments despite having tenants in the basement. His bank account is drained. He goes to school while his fiance works long hours.

If this is the dream, count me the fuck out...
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Old 10-16-2013, 04:59 PM   #1345
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Not even fixer-uppers, but people (especially in particular cultures) want BRAND NEW, as if the thought of living in a place previously occupied by other human beings sickens them.
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Old 10-16-2013, 05:01 PM   #1346
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lol

My friend bought a Duplex for $550,000

It was a serious fixer upper due to previous tenancy. He must of sank another $60k in renovations and landscaping. Now he struggles to make mortgage payments despite having tenants in the basement. His bank account is drained. He goes to school while his fiance works long hours.

If this is the dream, count me the fuck out...
Wait, you mean you can't be a student and afford a half million dollar home? Fuck this planet!!!!
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Old 10-16-2013, 05:06 PM   #1347
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lol

My friend bought a Duplex for $550,000

It was a serious fixer upper due to previous tenancy. He must of sank another $60k in renovations and landscaping. Now he struggles to make mortgage payments despite having tenants in the basement. His bank account is drained. He goes to school while his fiance works long hours.

If this is the dream, count me the fuck out...
This IS the dream people are still signing up for. It is fucking sad and WAY fucking scary.

Your friends will be hanging on by a thread for a long time...if they even make it. But, I bet if you asked them a year before they bought and reno'd if they thought that home ownership was a good idea, they would have looked at you as if you were crazy.

"OF COURSE ITS A GOOD IDEA!"

Our parents owned, their parents owned, it is the only way to tell the world that "you have made it"! If we aren't all striving for home ownership, then what the fuck are we doing!?

I totally get it...its hard to resist because everyone around you is buying. You think that MAYBE you are wrong for resisting...its can't be THAT bad?

Yes....yes, it can. You friends are a prime example and what the reality of home ownership is today.
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Old 10-16-2013, 05:06 PM   #1348
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I get the same reaction when my friends that are wanting to buy hear my opinion that their choice is absolutely retarded at this current time. I will feel bad when they are fucked, but I am still going to say, "TOLD YOU SO".

Ill rent thank you.
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Old 10-16-2013, 05:19 PM   #1349
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This IS the dream people are still signing up for. It is fucking sad and WAY fucking scary.

Your friends will be hanging on by a thread for a long time...if they even make it. But, I bet if you asked them a year before they bought and reno'd if they thought that home ownership was a good idea, they would have looked at you as if you were crazy.

"OF COURSE ITS A GOOD IDEA!"

Our parents owned, their parents owned, it is the only way to tell the world that "you have made it"! If we aren't all striving for home ownership, then what the fuck are we doing!?

I totally get it...its hard to resist because everyone around you is buying. You think that MAYBE you are wrong for resisting...its can't be THAT bad?

Yes....yes, it can. You friends are a prime example and what the reality of home ownership is today.
Personally, I find it very scary to commit to a mortgage at this stage of the world's economic evolution (or devolution). Who's to know which industries will be around 20-30 years from now? My friend is only in school because he lost his f/t job (the one that got him qualified for the mortgage in the first place). His industry is dying due to change in the industry itself. Change typically equals more computers and less people.

At most, I'd settle for a Condo but the developers around here seem to be greedy and disgusting with their high strata fees and lackluster construction.

Even if you do rent, it's still a home.
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Old 10-16-2013, 05:39 PM   #1350
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All I can say is to each their own. 4444 has brought many great points ie low interest rates = cheap money
I agree with 4444 that now is not the time to buy if you plan on renting the place out. Well not all of, but for most of 604/778 I agree. There are still certain areas where the per sq ft is less than $700 and rental prices are pretty good with steady rental demand.

GS8's example is an example of what a lot of people should not be doing. Obviously they are struggling because they over extended themselves and quite possibly have over paid for their unit. That is not an example of why home ownership is bad, but a reminder to everyone to buy within their means.
(edit) Just saw GS8's reply that his friend lost his job. Again, this should always have been a concern. Since your friend lost his job, as a couple they really should have re-evaluated things. Should he be looking for a new job, should they sell the house and rent since they are so tight for money. But they choose to tough it out. Same thing can be said about them if they were renting a $800 per month basement. It's part of being an adult, having bills to pay.

BTW, Gridlock, you can still get 30 year mortgages. 25 year mortgages only apply to those people with less than 20% down payment.
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