Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[jasonturbo]

I don't think the issue will be a housing crisis in Canada, it will simply be an economy crisis lol.

Seriously though, jobs dwindle, we have no real sectors we can prop up, we already propped up housing for a decade, they can't drop rates any lower, we have more debt than ever before, and gov can't balance their own books.

Here's what happens, unemployment starts to shoot up, Gov eventually panics and goes into infrastructure mode while trying to roll out new tech initiative to grow that sector in Canada.. meanwhile they run a nasty deficit and sell shitloads of bonds, all while the ratio of taxpayers to pension drawers tanks.

Not even kidding, I am 100% seeking opportunities abroad right now because the Canadian economy is shit. Resource based economy and global growth is slowing, they simply don't need our oil, lumber, minerals like they did 7 years ago.. and while smart kids should have been getting into tech, they were instead getting into lame ass oil and gas/mining jobs because the pay was so much better.

There is no way to soft landing the Canadian economy other than massive long term debt via bond sales (especially with retirement crisis coming soon, right now there are 4.9 tax payers for every CPP drawer, by 2030 there will only be 2.7 tax payers for every CPP drawer) and maintained low interest rates like Japan. Canadian dollar is heading for the 60's in due time I think.

All a matter of opinion, but I would challenge anyone to provide a case for robust economic recovery lol.

And yes, gov will bail out banks/CMHC/stupid homeowners... how can they not?

Bah. In 20 years you will constantly read on the news how millennials got fucked.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by Spoon

Thing is, nobody knows how the cookie's going to crumble. Unlike the US, mortgages here are backed by CMHC. WTF happens when the bubble bursts? They get the government (essentially tax payers) to pay up?

I don't get this philosophy.

In the case of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac (US' CMHC equivalent), they went bankrupt (basically) and US treasure simply backed its obligations and prevented it to go under. As of 2015, they have more or less repaid what the funding they received from the federal gov't. (without adjusting to inflation)

They were able to do it because market revived after the disaster and they cut their losses by taking advantage of federal guarantee. Then the companies themselves started to deflate (as they become smaller and smaller each year)

If it were to happen in Canada, it's more or less the same thing, CMHC would take over the bad properties and unload it little by little. This would actually be the safest way to deflate a RE bubble (let everything come back to its fundamentals). If our gov't had the guts, they'd have exploded the RE bubble back in 2008 (ceasing further guarantee from CMHC and banning any form of sub-prime lending) and we'd have been back to normal already.

Oh, I forgot... our gov't was stupid enough to let the bubble continue to inflate, so instead of the 7 years it took US to recover, it might take few decades for us to do it. Unless Harpie gov't can come up with a feasible long term plan on how to effectively cool down the RE, I don't see how it could be done otherwise.

[iEatClams]

Well with the CAD$ going down, means it will make it cheaper for foreigners to buy our assets like Real estate.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

Well with the CAD$ going down, means it will make it cheaper for foreigners to buy our assets like Real estate.

The thing is, how much more foreign investment can come?

China is in a shithole of its own, wiping out trillions of value within a month frame. Everyone I knew with investment in Chinese stock had lost money.

With the CAD continuing in decline, how attractive is our RE to foreign buyers really?

A Chinese buyer who closed RE just last friday lost almost 2% in exchange rate alone.

I was reading Financial Post or something saying that China is eying resources properties worldwide now that they are "bargain cheap", so investors should watch those stocks. I laughed my ass off... China has no money now. They lost billions in their previous investments, their economy is switching to a domestic demand model, which itself is tanking. Their factories are operating with capacity surpluses and quality jobs started to be hard to find. Foreign investment are starting to flee (you can see the outflow of foreign reserve). Sure they will continue to buy, but the rate would not be anywhere close than before and much less likely in resources as in every forecast think they are going lower.

I think it's about time to start changing mind about Chinese investors. They are no longer as rich as we think before.

[multicartual]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

Not even kidding, I am 100% seeking opportunities abroad right now because the Canadian economy is shit.

I have a few porn site ideas that I'm sure would make money, would cost like 50k-100k to build though...

[multicartual]

Book and Weblog ? Authored by Garth Turner ? Greater Fool ? Authored by Garth Turner ? The Troubled Future of Real Estate


10 years ago I went to a forum hosted by this guy, people in the audience laughed and a few boo'ed. I remember a bunch of people left during the middle of it. In the lobby afterwards, people said he was the biggest fool of them all! I wasn't really interested in what he said, at the time I had yet to move beyond the personal tragedy that had happened to me. Was fully self-medicating and ignoring adulthood.

Funny, he echoed the exact same shit Jasonturbo just said with his last post...

[Tapioca]

People are just going to continue carrying on.

Canada survived a 0.60 dollar, survived the high-interest environment in the 1980s, crushing recession in the 1990s. The RE bubble may finally burst, but if you have property and can continue to pay the mortgage on it, does it really matter what happens in the market?

Canada will continue to muddle through because it always has. If countries like Canada go truly belly-up, then I'm sure other middling countries like Canada will go belly-up long before Canada does.

[jasonturbo]

Tapioca, it's not to say the world is going to end, it's merely saying you can expect unemployment numbers to increase, wages to stagnate, inflation to climb, and debt to balloon.

In short, there will very likely be a reduction in the quality of life for all Canadians.

[Tapioca]

^ Real wages have been stagnant for 2 decades. Unemployment has been higher before and systemic underemployment has been a reality for the last decade. Manufacturing is all but dead. Debt has been increasing for the last decade also.

Yet, people are getting by, albeit with less savings. Maybe you won't be able to buy more supercars, but people who haven't worked in resource extraction have been muddling along for the last 10-15 years despite systemic changes in the global economy that no central bank has any real effect on.

[Mr.C]

Originally Posted by multicartual

I have a few porn site ideas that I'm sure would make money, would cost like 50k-100k to build though...

With the way the economy is going, getting, uh, actors/actresses should be easy...

[Harvey Specter]

Household debt is another ticking time bomb in Canada. There's people out there who have no savings whatsoever or any other investments they can cash out. Scary times ahead.

[flagella]

It's a scary thing because people have no concept of how high debt leverage can ruin you when you don't have adequate liquidity to cushion you in times of trouble. Otherwise housing market would not have been this heated.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

^ Real wages have been stagnant for 2 decades. Unemployment has been higher before and systemic underemployment has been a reality for the last decade. Manufacturing is all but dead. Debt has been increasing for the last decade also.

Yet, people are getting by, albeit with less savings. Maybe you won't be able to buy more supercars, but people who haven't worked in resource extraction have been muddling along for the last 10-15 years despite systemic changes in the global economy that no central bank has any real effect on.

while i'll admit that few will die from this, look at the shit so many in america live in, or lack of assets they have due to it all being wiped out in 2009...

life will go on, but on average quality of life will decrease.

CAD will likely weaken as soon as Fed announces rate rise in Sept (it's somewhat priced in, but there is still a bit of uncertainty)

we're flirting with 1.30 USD/CAD, i expect 1.40 within a year or two. this recession will hurt, and canada will not easily get out of it.

glad i moved to europe >18 months ago - there were no good jobs then, i'd imagine it will only get worse and worse

[adambomb]

I never knew 4444 moved to Europe. He should mention it more often.

[4444]

Originally Posted by adambomb

I never knew 4444 moved to Europe. He should mention it more often.

just know the Euro is weakening in lockstep with the CAD.

only decent currencies are GBP and USD.

you should consider leaving Canada - will do your life a world of good (you'll know exactly what I mean when you do it), few people leave and want to go back

[westopher]

I'd be proud of that decision too if I had that option earlier. Once my wife is done school I think we will be perusing options out of this country. This is no longer the Canada I grew up in and was proud of to call my home. Frankly, it's embarrassing how we allowed ourselves to be represented by a government that has sold of our sovereignty and resources for next to nothing to delay the inevitability of the economy crumbling. Keep buying shit you can't afford! Keep lending to people to dig themselves into a pit with the hopes it will just go away! That's all Canada's economy is based on at the moment.

[Z3guy]

I can appreciate people's desire to seek greener pastures for themselves and family but in reality for every person that wants to leave, there are 2 people waiting to come in......park the financial realities aside, Canada is a great country for our health care, safety, climate, school systems, etc. Europe is not exactly kicking ass in the global economy and hell no I would never live in South America or China!

[Mike.L]

Originally Posted by westopher

I'd be proud of that decision too if I had that option earlier. Once my wife is done school I think we will be perusing options out of this country. This is no longer the Canada I grew up in and was proud of to call my home. Frankly, it's embarrassing how we allowed ourselves to be represented by a government that has sold of our sovereignty and resources for next to nothing to delay the inevitability of the economy crumbling. Keep buying shit you can't afford! Keep lending to people to dig themselves into a pit with the hopes it will just go away! That's all Canada's economy is based on at the moment.

Other countries are no different. Borrowing products are more profitable than investing products.

[nma]

grass is always greener on the other side boys

[GS8]

Canada ranked as 'most admired' country in the world: report | CTV News

And yet I still find myself yelling at shitty drivers on the way to and from work....

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by 4444

just know the Euro is weakening in lockstep with the CAD.

only decent currencies are GBP and USD.

you should consider leaving Canada - will do your life a world of good (you'll know exactly what I mean when you do it), few people leave and want to go back

what country are you living in Europe if you don't mind sharing?

moving to europe is not that easy for Asians as europe is more xenophobic than Vancouver or Canada for that matter.

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

what country are you living in Europe if you don't mind sharing?

moving to europe is not that easy for Asians as europe is more xenophobic than Vancouver or Canada for that matter.

He lives in 'murica, not Europe.

[Urrtoast]

Originally Posted by nma

grass is always greener on the other side boys

lol
Isnt that from all the Bull Sh##
lol

[godwin]

I feel old when I say this, but for any career, you have to start at the bottom. I don't think that has changed but young people's expectations seems to want to be CEO first day they are out of university or MBA school or get too specialised right from the start. Real life is a whole lot harder, especially for executive positions, you have to work hard, build network and learn things about your vocation all in the same time and still you can fail out spectacularly.

There will always be space for all kinds of jobs in Vancouver, just realise the competition is more fierce than say Grand Forks. One just has to work on it... and learn to be able to bounce back from failure.. make as wide a range of mistakes and dalliances as you can and as young as possible... Don't jump into "tech" for schooling just because your view of the job market makes you think it is in high demand.

Be flexible in life.. just like owning pretty much other important things in this forum, cars, computers etc.. owning property is never a right.. despite what politicians on both sides of the spectrum like to tell you.

While we are talking about fauna: rolling stone gathers no moss.

The fact is real estate is illiquid. I highly doubt people who can afford to buy and leave houses empty in Point Grey, their first source for cash is to liquidate illiquid assets in a crisis, any financial adviser with a bit of brain will think of selling things like their LV or Hermes collection first.

[godwin]

Canada has done it since its inception.. from bisons, fur trade and now to oil.. Nothing has fundamentally changed except people are now more informed, and opinions (unfortunately a lot of them are ignorant) travel further.

Originally Posted by westopher

. Frankly, it's embarrassing how we allowed ourselves to be represented by a government that has sold of our sovereignty and resources for next to nothing to delay the inevitability of the economy crumbling.