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Old 10-03-2012, 04:46 PM   #1
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Vancouver's Real Estate Market

is it a prediction that you guys think its gonna bubble?

Big drop predicted for Vancouver real estate prices - British Columbia - CBC News
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Old 10-03-2012, 04:49 PM   #2
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40% decrease?
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Old 10-03-2012, 04:53 PM   #3
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I've been hearing about a "market correction" for the past 10 years.
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:05 PM   #4
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2007 interest rate 4.5%
2009 interest rate 0.25%
2012 interest rate 1%

so no, it will not drop
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:06 PM   #5
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I think not for awhile.... Alot of foreign investments, a few big projects (oil and mining). As long as there are high salary jobs and the opportunity to make it, real estate shouldn't move much in my opinion. I know there are huge demands for labour up northern BC, so much that they've started recruiting nation wide. If your willing to tough it out, there is money to be made. You could save enough for a decent place after being up there for a few years.
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:07 PM   #6
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Home buying is slowing but a 40% drop is way too much of a correction. Not saying its not possible but its going to take another recession to make that happen. IMO, its more like 'profit taking' period. I am sure people who were priced out of the market since the boom will not miss the opportunity this time around.
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:09 PM   #7
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This city blows anyways.

I've already made a plan to emigrate.
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:13 PM   #8
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its been expected for a long time, I know several lawyers who are concentrating on bankruptcy because they're expecting a lot of people who've overextended themselves to drop once the bubble pops



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This city blows anyways.

I've already made a plan to emigrate.

to greece?
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:13 PM   #9
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I have been dealing with condos for the good part of 2012 and I can say surely that condos demands are steady while houses/townhouses demand is dropping.

At this rate my prediction is that the average house price of detached will drop very significantly while the prices of condos remain strong - as they are pretty much the bare minimum for anyone looking into buying to start a new family or a new chapter in life.
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:17 PM   #10
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I don't know if 40% is realistic, but considering the recent changes to mortgage lending (25 year etc) I can't see prices going back UP any time soon.
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:40 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asian_XL View Post
2007 interest rate 4.5%
2009 interest rate 0.25%
2012 interest rate 1%

so no, it will not drop
What?!?!

As rates rise, affordability decreases,

I have no idea what ur post was trying to say
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:42 PM   #12
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I think not for awhile.... Alot of foreign investments, a few big projects (oil and mining). As long as there are high salary jobs and the opportunity to make it, real estate shouldn't move much in my opinion. I know there are huge demands for labour up northern BC, so much that they've started recruiting nation wide. If your willing to tough it out, there is money to be made. You could save enough for a decent place after being up there for a few years.
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High salaries? We have, on average, very low salaries

Affordability is at an all time low

Market was propped up by cheap money and general horniness

Cheap money is leaving, horniness turns to hatred very quickly

Anyone who bought with less than 20% down in the last 3 years is going to have negative equity in the coming years
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:45 PM   #13
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is it a prediction that you guys think its gonna bubble?
yes it's going to bubble.
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:47 PM   #14
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Housing bubble won't burst because, I heard that the median household income in this city is expected to increase 200% just like the price of housing did lol...

Eventually, all things financial revert to the mean. I've been watching property over the last few years very closely and all I can say is that over the last 6 months it seems the price of condo's have taken a 10% haircut.

Having said that, the more I travel for work, the more I realize just how amazing Vancouver is. The scenery, the beach all summer, the mountains all winter, how well groomed the city stays, the traffic is not that bad IMO (go drive around Toronto for a week), the city did a very good job ensuring park space DT didn't vanish as new buildings were erected, the people are friendly, the FOOD OMG, the parking is usually easy, the airport is located in a good spot, close to US border, close to many nature areas, close to Whis, attracts maor venues, etc..

Van is THAT GREAT.
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:48 PM   #15
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Crap, hit reply instead of edit...

Is the rain gay? Yes at times, but fall and spring are gay everywhere, to me there is only snowboarding season and beach season.

Housing all over Canada is overpriced... it won't be a local price melt, it will be federal.
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:51 PM   #16
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I've been hearing about a "market correction" for the past 10 years.
This.

One veteran real estate agent was telling me the other day that many of his clients ask him the same question. When is a good time to buy a house? His answer: Every day. As long as its not intended for investment and for personal use, every day is a good day to buy a house. Unless a colossal disaster strikes, the population of Vancouver will keep on steadily increasing and so will prices.
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:51 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jasonturbo View Post
Housing bubble won't burst because, I heard that the median household income in this city is expected to increase 200% just like the price of housing did lol...

Eventually, all things financial revert to the mean. I've been watching property over the last few years very closely and all I can say is that over the last 6 months it seems the price of condo's have taken a 10% haircut.

Having said that, the more I travel for work, the more I realize just how amazing Vancouver is. The scenery, the beach all summer, the mountains all winter, how well groomed the city stays, the traffic is not that bad IMO (go drive around Toronto for a week), the city did a very good job ensuring park space DT didn't vanish as new buildings were erected, the people are friendly, the FOOD OMG, the parking is usually easy, the airport is located in a good spot, close to US border, close to many nature areas, close to Whis, attracts maor venues, etc..

Van is THAT GREAT.
Agreed, I've also been around and I will never have anywhere but BC as my home
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Edit * also until the N/A absolutely takes a shit as a whole, desirable properties will never go down
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:54 PM   #18
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Market was propped up by cheap money and general horniness

Cheap money is leaving, horniness turns to hatred very quickly
Wut?
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Old 10-03-2012, 05:55 PM   #19
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This.
When is a good time to buy a house? His answer: Every day.
For his clients or for him?

It's like asking a hooker when's the best time to get a blowjob.
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Old 10-03-2012, 06:07 PM   #20
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condo's will drop way faster than detached housing
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Old 10-03-2012, 06:18 PM   #21
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Canada no longer accepting investor class applicants from China. Local realtors are stranded. Ouch
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Old 10-03-2012, 07:31 PM   #22
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Quote:
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What?!?!

As rates rise, affordability decreases,

I have no idea what ur post was trying to say
you are an idiot...go take some economic courses and read more world news on RE price.
People have been saying the marketing will drop for the past 10 years, like 604STIG said, sadly the constantly low interest rate and foreign demand have driven more cash into the RE market. The current market has accumlated a lot of buying power over the past few years, let's say a 600K apartment drops to 500K, it will fill up the gap much quicker. You can say it will drop 80% all you want if they ban the rich Chinese coming into Canada, the reality is never unless the supply goes up substantially.

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Housing bubble won't burst because, I heard that the median household income in this city is expected to increase 200% just like the price of housing did lol...
In theory, yes, but how likely your boss will give you a 200% raise? by the time you receive 200% raise, then all the goods you can buy out there will raise more than 200%. How about $12 for a mcdonald meal? and everyone will be driving S class and R8.

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Old 10-03-2012, 07:43 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asian_XL View Post
you are an idiot...go take some economic courses and read more world news on RE price.
People have been saying the marketing will drop for the past 10 years, like 604STIG said, sadly the constantly low interest rate and foreign demand have driven more cash into the RE market. The current market has accumlated a lot of buying power over the past few years, let's say a 600K apartment drops to 500K, it will fill up the gap much quicker.
In defense of Mr.4444, I beleive what he was trying to say is that you had demonstrated a climbing interest rate with your example...

Quote:
2007 interest rate 4.5%
2009 interest rate 0.25%
2012 interest rate 1%

so no, it will not drop
So yes I'm sure he understands what you were trying to say, but understand that the way you said it still shows an increase over 3 years of 400%...
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Old 10-03-2012, 08:06 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asian_XL View Post
you are an idiot...go take some economic courses and read more world news on RE price.
People have been saying the marketing will drop for the past 10 years, like 604STIG said, sadly the constantly low interest rate and foreign demand have driven more cash into the RE market. The current market has accumlated a lot of buying power over the past few years, let's say a 600K apartment drops to 500K, it will fill up the gap much quicker. You can say it will drop 80% all you want if they ban the rich Chinese coming into Canada, the reality is never unless the supply goes up substantially.



In theory, yes, but how likely your boss will give you a 200% raise? by the time you receive 200% raise, then all the goods you can buy out there will raise more than 200%. How about $12 for a mcdonald meal? and everyone will be driving S class and R8.
The irony, I have an economics degree, and plenty more business education and experience

If price fall approx 20% by your example, first off, 20% (well, just shy of that, 100/600), that's one fucking big fall, so right there, you have just gone against ur own argument

Second, if prices fall 20%, chances are, emotion will override (real estate is a very emotion based buy for the average person), and accordingly prices will likely fall further - they would then overshoot their intrinsic value, just as they have overshot their true value in this market

People always talk about foreign money (Chinese money), well, if the majority of purchasers were cash foreign money, would the changes to the mortgage rule have a very big effect - logically, no - yet, sales have plummeted since the rules have come in. Prices are starting to creep down, moves in real estate are usually slow and don't turn around quickly (even longer on the way up - just look at US, 2000 to 2008, or now Canada, 2002- 2012

We lag the US a little too eerily by 4 yrs, which makes the impending decrease in values even easier to see

Also, look at fundamentals, housing carrying costs compared to incomes is astronomical in the Vancouver market - this cannot sustain, assets ALWAYS revert to mean

As for your interest rate analysis, it's so out of context, the overnight rte went from over 4% in 2006 to near zero in the aftermath of the financial crisis ( to stop the economy from crumbling, economically sound policy), and now up to just over 1%, still just shy of 1/4 of 2006 rates - they will go up, starting in 2013, yet unlike the US economy which is getting back on its feet, the Canadian economy is looking decidedly weak, manufacturing is dead (strong dollar), and whilst commodities remain strong, they won't be as strong as they were last year and 2010, and oil/oil sands is no saviour, just too expensive to get it out of the ground to spur on a huge boon for the country (will be fine for Alberta, but its not a god send) - without Iran going apeshit on someone, i can't see sustained $100 plus oil over next 5 years

I'm happy to have people disagree with me, assuming they can back up opinion with fact, or provide facts that discount what I believe, but being called an idiot who needs to take an economics course - I just laugh, because that is exactly what I have and then some (plenty in fact)
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Old 10-03-2012, 08:10 PM   #25
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Wut?
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Easy money = cheap monthly payments and low down payments, which means higher house prices

As easy money dries up (regulation or higher interest rate), so does affordability, which means prices are put under downward pressure

As for horniness, people are very emotional when it comes to real estate, but as soon as prices start dropping, they go from lusting after big and shiny houses to being scared of them - just look at the historically low ownership rates in the US and the attitude if 20-30 yr olds, more and more don't see owning a home as part of the American dream, and rightfully so
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