Malaysian Airline loses contact with passenger airline

[v_tec]

Click on the pic for a bigger pic

Runways:

Jindalee Radar range overlayed:


I'm starting to think more and more it went up North.

[underscore]

^ Based on what we know I would agree.

Here's the route for the flight it could have shadowed to hide from primary radar across India, etc. (going north sounds more likely though, in which case another flight may have worked)

[rsx]

What's the logic of stealing cargo and landing it in Iran, Israel and the US are dying to send drones and bomb the shit out of them, why risk it? The cargo can't be that valuable to their nuclear facility. They have all the equipment to enrich uranium, don't they?

[StylinRed]

Originally Posted by rsx

What's the logic of stealing cargo and landing it in Iran, Israel and the US are dying to send drones and bomb the shit out of them, why risk it? The cargo can't be that valuable to their nuclear facility. They have all the equipment to enrich uranium, don't they?

its just a crazy conspiracy notion someone thought up rather poorly

and if it actually panned out to be true Iran would be crazier than the world perceives the Kims of North Korea to be

[v_tec]

Originally Posted by underscore

^ Based on what we know I would agree.

Here's the route for the flight it could have shadowed to hide from primary radar across India, etc. (going north sounds more likely though, in which case another flight may have worked)]

Thanks. But could you elaborate a little further for us noobs what it means/benefit by using another commercial flight to 'shadow' it?

1) Would radars not notice there is TWO, instead of 1 plane?
2) Would having two planes close to each other not even raise more alarm?
3) Would KLM 836 not notice another aircraft is following close behind and sneak for help / clarification?

[Harvey Specter]

Large police presence at the pilots home. They've finally entered the home so let's see if there's any clues from there search.

And I found it a bit odd that the Russian ambassador attended the PM's press conference. Not sure what interest Russia has in all this. And I've heard the Chinese are pissed and want to send their own experts to search for the plane because they're not convinced with what the Malaysians are feeding the world.

[Harvey Specter]

Originally Posted by v_tec

Thanks. But could you elaborate a little further for us noobs what it means/benefit by using another commercial flight to 'shadow' it?

1) Would radars not notice there is TWO, instead of 1 plane?
2) Would having two planes close to each other not even raise more alarm?
3) Would KLM 836 not notice another aircraft is following close behind and sneak for help / clarification?

Because you would be flying without been detected by radar. Remember the MH plane had no transponder and was probably flying under 30,000ft. If it shadowed the KLM flight than it would have looked like one plane on rader and keep in mind the KLM flight would have been at a cruise altitude which would be 35,000+ so there was plenty of space between the two aircraft's.

Drug runners are notorious for shadowing planes to get in and out of the US.

[underscore]

edt: ^ someone mentioned that KLM 836 was at 30,000, I'm not sure if that's true or not but since MH370 was known to be at 29,500 that would be a pretty ideal gap for picking them up.

Originally Posted by rsx

What's the logic of stealing cargo and landing it in Iran, Israel and the US are dying to send drones and bomb the shit out of them, why risk it? The cargo can't be that valuable to their nuclear facility. They have all the equipment to enrich uranium, don't they?

No clue, I'm not familiar with the Iranians. If you want an even crazier theory someone could be setting up the Iranians to have Israel and the USA bomb the shit out of them.

Originally Posted by StylinRed

its just a crazy conspiracy notion someone thought up rather poorly

The guy it comes from seems to have some pretty solid sources and be pretty knowledgable. IIRC he's worked in plane security for 13+ years or something.

Originally Posted by v_tec

Thanks. But could you elaborate a little further for us noobs what it means/benefit by using another commercial flight to 'shadow' it?

1) Would radars not notice there is TWO, instead of 1 plane?
2) Would having two planes close to each other not even raise more alarm?
3) Would KLM 836 not notice another aircraft is following close behind and sneak for help / clarification?

1) Radar isn't exact, by positioning MH370 near enough to the other plane (keeping the other commercial flight between MH370 and the ATC makes it even better) it's likely the ATC won't pick them up on radar.
2) Only if they get detected, which it sounds like there's a good chance they wouldn't be.
3) With the MH 370 transponder working, KLM 836 would see them and their collision warnings would likely sound. With the transponder off, they could see KLM 836, while remaining unseen themselves.

[Harvey Specter]

Jonah Fisher @JonahFisher
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Being briefed by Malaysia officials they believe most likely location for MH370 is on land somewhere near Chinese/Kyrgyz border.

[underscore]

Repost!



That really narrows down the search area though, that's a pretty short border. Explains why Russia is paying attention now, that's starting to get close to their turf.

[Gnieob]

Originally Posted by underscore

^ Based on what we know I would agree.

Here's the route for the flight it could have shadowed to hide from primary radar across India, etc. (going north sounds more likely though, in which case another flight may have worked)

you will have to be extremely close to the other aircraft in order to be able to "hide" under it's shadow, especially when you are a 300t aircraft - not a Cessna Baron or Citation that drug runners use

So close it would activate the TCAS (Traffic Collision Avoidance System) on the KLM Aircraft, in which the pilots would call the ground to ask about the other aircraft trailing them. (keep in mind too that the aircraft would show up as a blip on the KLM Aircraft's ND)

[underscore]

The TCAS relies on the transponders, which we already know was shut off on the MH plane. I'm not familiar with what an ATC sees on their screens, but presumably the transponder info is the main thing. Even if they do get a hit on radar extremely close to the other plane, with no transponder data they may just pass it off as glitch or something. Especially if they have other planes taking off and landing, they might be inclined to not pay as much attention to a plane just passing through their airspace. This is just speculation though, I'm not familiar enough with what ATC systems show you or what their protocols might be.

Either way, it sounds like the plane went north-northwest, not northwest, assuming the latest info given to the media is correct.

[StylinRed]

Originally Posted by Lord Disick

Not sure what interest Russia has in all this. And I've heard the Chinese are pissed and want to send their own experts to search for the plane because they're not convinced with what the Malaysians are feeding the world.

if you recall there were some terrorist bombings just before the olympics and that issue with the chechens has been going on for some time

Originally Posted by underscore

No clue, I'm not familiar with the Iranians. If you want an even crazier theory someone could be setting up the Iranians to have Israel and the USA bomb the shit out of them.

I could see that being less crazy than Iran doing it but even then i think Iran would notice an unidentified aircraft entering their airspace (hell they shot down us drones even a stealth one)

The guy it comes from seems to have some pretty solid sources and be pretty knowledgable. IIRC he's worked in plane security for 13+ years or something.

that may be but flight/national security are still two different things.
Common sense would suggest Iran would have to have gone batshit crazy to green light an attack on them in such a way with how they've been tiptoeing so intensely already with their enrichment it would be for them to just throw that all out the door and do something so stupid

iran doesnt need any nuclear tech anymore they've got the capability to make a nuke, hell its rumored they may already have a nuke (according to some in the US military and israel) the only thing stopping them from doing it out in the open isn't the tech, its because they'll be bombed when they accelerate their enrichment

I'm not saying his idea is 100% impossible i'm just saying it seems to be pretty close to it

[hud 91gt]

Shadowing a flight seems really far fetched, but I suppose not impossible. I still think they were whale watching 100 feet off the deck on their way to their favourite island destination with a 7000' strip. Mind you this would kill their airspeed/efficiency and their range would not be nearly as far.

As for blips on the radar. Birds can show a return on a radar screen, so erroneous returns do happen.

[underscore]

The full transcript of the Malaysian PM's statement if anyone is interested

Spoiler!

Seven days ago Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 disappeared. We realise this is an excruciating time for the families of those on board. No words can describe the pain they must be going through. Our thoughts and our prayers are with them.

I have been appraised of the on-going search operation round the clock. At the beginning of the operation, I ordered the search area to be broadened; I instructed the Malaysian authorities to share all relevant information freely and transparently with the wider investigation team; and I requested that our friends and allies join the operation. As of today, 14 countries, 43 ships and 58 aircraft are involved in the search. I wish to thank all the governments for their help at such a crucial time.

Since day one, the Malaysian authorities have worked hand-in-hand with our international partners – including neighbouring countries, the aviation authorities and a multinational search force – many of whom have been here on the ground since Sunday.

We have shared information in real time with authorities who have the necessary experience to interpret the data. We have been working nonstop to assist the investigation. And we have put our national security second to the search for the missing plane.

It is widely understood that this has been a situation without precedent.

We have conducted search operations over land, in the South China Sea, the Straits of Malacca, the Andaman Sea and the Indian Ocean. At every stage, we acted on the basis of verified information, and we followed every credible lead. Sometimes these leads have led nowhere.

There has been intense speculation. We understand the desperate need for information on behalf of the families and those watching around the world. But we have a responsibility to the investigation and the families to only release information that has been corroborated. And our primary motivation has always been to find the plane.

In the first phase of the search operation, we searched near MH370’s last known position, in the South China Sea. At the same time, it was brought to our attention by the Royal Malaysian Air Force that, based on their primary radar, an aircraft – the identity of which could not be confirmed – made a turn back. The primary radar data showed the aircraft proceeding on a flight path which took it to an area north of the Straits of Malacca.

Given this credible data, which was subsequently corroborated with the relevant international authorities, we expanded the area of search to include the Straits of Malacca and, later, to the Andaman Sea.

Early this morning I was briefed by the investigation team – which includes the FAA [US Federal Aviation Administration], NTSB [US National Transportation Safety Board], the AAIB (Uk Air Accidents Investigation Branch), the Malaysian authorities and the acting minister of transport – on new information that sheds further light on what happened to MH370.

Based on new satellite information, we can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the aircraft reached the East coast of peninsular Malaysia. Shortly afterwards, near the border between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft’s transponder was switched off.

From this point onwards, the Royal Malaysian Air Force primary radar showed that an aircraft which was believed – but not confirmed – to be MH370 did indeed turn back. It then flew in a westerly direction back over peninsular Malaysia before turning northwest. Up until the point at which it left military primary radar coverage, these movements are consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane.

Today, based on raw satellite data that was obtained from the satellite data service provider, we can confirm that the aircraft shown in the primary radar data was flight MH370. After much forensic work and deliberation, the FAA, NTSB, AAIB and the Malaysian authorities, working separately on the same data, concur.

According to the new data, the last confirmed communication between the plane and the satellite was at 8:11AM Malaysian time on Saturday 8th March. The investigations team is making further calculations which will indicate how far the aircraft may have flown after this last point of contact. This will help us to refine the search.

Due to the type of satellite data, we are unable to confirm the precise location of the plane when it last made contact with the satellite.

However, based on this new data, the aviation authorities of Malaysia and their international counterparts have determined that the plane’s last communication with the satellite was in one of two possible corridors: a northern corridor stretching approximately from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to northern Thailand, or a southern corridor stretching approximately from Indonesia to the southern Indian ocean. The investigation team is working to further refine the information.

In view of this latest development the Malaysian authorities have refocused their investigation into the crew and passengers on board. Despite media reports that the plane was hijacked, I wish to be very clear: we are still investigating all possibilities as to what caused MH370 to deviate from its original flight path.

This new satellite information has a significant impact on the nature and scope of the search operation. We are ending our operations in the South China Sea and reassessing the redeployment of our assets. We are working with the relevant countries to request all information relevant to the search, including radar data.

As the two new corridors involve many countries, the relevant foreign embassies have been invited to a briefing on the new information today by the Malaysian Foreign Ministry and the technical experts. I have also instructed the Foreign Ministry to provide a full briefing to foreign governments which had passengers on the plane. This morning, Malaysia Airlines has been informing the families of the passengers and crew of these new developments.

Clearly, the search for MH370 has entered a new phase. Over the last seven days, we have followed every lead and looked into every possibility. For the families and friends of those involved, we hope this new information brings us one step closer to finding the plane.

[PeanutButter]

Can someone explain civilian radar? If they disappeared from civilian radar, did they use military radar to figure out the changes in altitudes?
Posted via RS Mobile

[underscore]

Public posts from the pilots FB page indicate that he was unhappy with the Barisan Nasional, who won the Malaysian elections last May (apparently they have been in power for quite a while). He also posted saying that it was going to be his last post on FB shortly before going to vote. The day before the plane was highjacked the main leader of the political opposition (supported by the pilot) in Malaysia was convicted on sodomy charges.

This provides potential motivation for the pilot to either act alone or to work with another group who have their own motivations, he could make the current government look bad by being unable to locate the missing plane, seeing as its not rocket science to know they would be leading the SAR effort.

[Ball.J.Inder]

The fact that the Malaysians seem to be hiding something and if it indeed was hijacked, it could be possible that the Malaysians possibly overreacted when the systems began turning off and then the plane went off course. Could the Malaysians have possibly shot down the plane?

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by Ball.J.Inder

The fact that the Malaysians seem to be hiding something and if it indeed was hijacked, it could be possible that the Malaysians possibly overreacted when the systems began turning off and then the plane went off course. Could the Malaysians have possibly shot down the plane?

If the Malaysian gov did it to prevent terrorist attacks they would have said it by now. And the fact that now terrorist organization have take responsibility yet that's unlikely.

Maybe hijacked by the ploit?

[xpl0sive]

Originally Posted by Lord Disick

Large police presence at the pilots home. They've finally entered the home so let's see if there's any clues from there search.

And I found it a bit odd that the Russian ambassador attended the PM's press conference. Not sure what interest Russia has in all this. And I've heard the Chinese are pissed and want to send their own experts to search for the plane because they're not convinced with what the Malaysians are feeding the world.

And what interest do the Americans have in the search...?

I'm starting to think that maybe the plane flew South West into the middle of the Indian Ocean and crashed. I just don't see any other explanation how a plane and 200+ people just vanish in today's Global information network. I don't exactly know how far the South West the search effort has gone, but I think if the plane had enough fuel to go North West all the way to Iran, it could have just as easily gone South West into the middle of the ocean.

[underscore]

Reading on other forums I find it interesting how people continue to think the plane flying over India is impossible, that the plane being landed is impossible, the plane not being seen is impossible, that the pilot highjacking it is impossible, when things initially thought to be very unlikely are now most likely true (like crossing Malaysia unnoticed). Hell, prior to 9/11 most people would have said that highjacking multiple planes to slam them into buildings is impossible.

At this point, I would say it's foolish to discount anything within the physical and technological capabilities of the plane and only the plane.

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

Maybe hijacked by the ploit?

To date, excluding 9/11, apparently 30% of the hijackings at cruise have been done the pilot or first officer. With the timing of the disappearance, the way in which the systems were disabled, and the route it looks like was taken, it's looking pretty likely to have been one of those two.

[underscore]

Originally Posted by xpl0sive

And what interest do the Americans have in the search...?

I'm starting to think that maybe the plane flew South West into the middle of the Indian Ocean and crashed. I just don't see any other explanation how a plane and 200+ people just vanish in today's Global information network. I don't exactly know how far the South West the search effort has gone, but I think if the plane had enough fuel to go North West all the way to Iran, it could have just as easily gone South West into the middle of the ocean.

Why couldn't it vanish? The areas that the satellite has narrowed it down to are hardly high tech, there's a whole pile of sweet crap all in most of that region. Do you think some rural farmer is gonna go contact the authorities just because he saw a plane fly by early in the morning? It wouldn't say it would be terribly difficult to hide 240 people in the desert in the middle of nowhere. It's not like they're saying it flew over New York and landed somewhere in central park.

[xpl0sive]

Originally Posted by underscore

Why couldn't it vanish? The areas that the satellite has narrowed it down to are hardly high tech, there's a whole pile of sweet crap all in most of that region. Do you think some rural farmer is gonna go contact the authorities just because he saw a plane fly by early in the morning? It wouldn't say it would be terribly difficult to hide 240 people in the desert in the middle of nowhere. It's not like they're saying it flew over New York and landed somewhere in central park.

I wasn't talking about someone seeing a plane fly by. I'm talking about landing the plane in Iran or wherever and hiding it there. Do they execute 200+ people and then just hang onto the plane for future use? It sounds like pulling off something like this would take quite a bit of planning and everything would have to go right. What's the reward? A Boeing 777?
You'd think if someone is willing to do all that work they would do it for something a little bit more valuable. I don't know how much a plane costs nowadays... price list from Boeing suggests they are $300mil? What's it worth on the black market... $50mil?
I mean $50mil is a ton of money, but in the grand scheme of things, highjacking a plane and killing 200+ people over it doesn't sound plausible.

http://www.boeing.com/boeing/commercial/prices/

[hud 91gt]

I'd agree with the above, i'm going along with the theory of pilot interception. The fact the radio transmissions were clear and calm before hand. Then right at transfer of control from one controller to another, all communications stop. That is huge in my mind. Then the plane disappears. They knew what they were doing.

[Gucci Mane]

man this story is going to make for a good fucking movie in the near future.