Canada in ‘mild recession’ after economy shrinks five months in a row

[godwin]

With people going apesheep about lions, dogs, scooters.. no one talked about we are in a recession!! Not just a technical one With Amazon just opened at Braid street and coming downtown.. I think it will be interesting times for Lower Mainland.

But seems construction is still going well in town, still get some companies turn down multimillion projects.

Canada in ?mild recession? after economy shrinks five months in a row - The Globe and Mail

SERES LU The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Jul. 31, 2015 8:39AM EDT
Last updated Friday, Jul. 31, 2015 4:47PM EDT

Canada’s economy has chalked up its longest slump since the Great Recession amid trouble from the oil patch to the factory floor.

The economy contracted 0.2 per cent in May, Statistics Canada said Friday, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. It also showed a surprise drop in manufacturing of 1.7 per cent.

The Bank of Canada is projecting a GDP loss of 0.5 per cent for the second quarter, following a 0.6-per-cent loss in the first quarter.

But the hope is that the weaker Canadian dollar and lower interest rates will still spark a rebound in the second half of the year, one Canadians have been waiting on despite anticipation since January of stimulated exports and manufacturing activity.

Soft American demand in the first quarter proved a drag on expected growth while the oil and gas sector further demonstrated heavy influence on manufacturing.

“The oil and gas sector accounts for 25 per cent of all of our capital spending. It’s not the largest driver of manufacturing activity in Canada, but it’s been responsible for a lot of the growth in recent years,” said Mike Holden, director of policy and economics at Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, an industry association. “You cut out that growth driver and suddenly you’re left in a situation that looks like this.”

Manufacturing has disappointed expectations this year. The sector has grown only once so far, by 0.2 per cent in March, and has overall seen a 2.3-per-cent decline from the same period last year.

“There’s been a lot of cancelled or delayed oil sands projects and energy sector projects in Alberta and across the country,” Mr. Holden said. Those projects would have fed demand in manufacturing for machinery and equipment, all of which has disappeared because of the poor outlook for energy and mining. The durable manufacturing sector is down by 4.8 per cent from last May, tracking a 6.9-per-cent decrease in the energy sector.

Though manufacturing had the biggest decline, it wasn’t the only sector hurting. May numbers saw three out of five goods-producing industries and 11 out of 15 service industries post declines.

“What’s notable is the breadth of weakness in May,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO. “It was spread across a number of sectors and we can’t just point to the resource sector. Some of the other declines are tough to explain away.”

And yet analysts remain optimistic for a positive showing in June, though perhaps with less emphasis on manufacturing.

“We think it will be a solid month for GDP in June,” said Mr. Porter, citing strong auto and home sales and robust hours-worked employment numbers. “We don’t want to exaggerate the numbers, but June should be positive.”

It won’t be enough to reach the 1 per cent needed to swing the second quarter as a whole into the positive, however, which still leaves Canada with two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. By one technical definition, that would place Canada in a recession.

“What we are experiencing now would be a mild recession,” said Randall Bartlett, senior economist at TD. He points to a classification system used by the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council, which unofficially acts as a deciding body on business cycle dates in Canada. The system ranks recessions on a scale of 1 to 5, where category 1 recessions are defined as having only a short, mild drop in GDP and no decline in quarterly employment. “We would be in a category 1 recession right now,” he said.

But most economists agree brighter times are around the corner, with the economy moving past the negative effects of a host of temporary factors, ranging from bad weather to plant closings to wild fires. Increased spending for the coming federal election, the recent $3-billion payout in government childcare benefits and the continuing low run of the loonie are expected to provide stimulus.

“We expect to see growth of 1.5 to 2 per cent for the second half of 2015 and roughly 2 to 2.5 per cent for next year,” Mr. Bartlett said. “It’s not stellar growth, but it’s definitely better than what we are seeing right now.”

With files from Ahmad Hathout

[AstulzerRZD]

"The Canadian dollar is expected to continue its swan dive through 2015, a new report from TD Economics said Monday.

The bank’s economics department suggests the loonie will hit a low of 75 cents U.S. by the beginning of next year as the dollar depreciates because of low oil prices and their impact on the domestic economy."

Canadian dollar expected to slip to fresh low of 75 cents, TD says - National | Globalnews.ca

[fliptuner]

Meanwhile, this week, 2 friends sold their properties on the first offer date, for significantly over asking, w/o subjects.

Dat GVRD real estate anomaly.......

[yray]

Mild....

[nah]

tip of the iceberg...

[GLOW]

Originally Posted by fliptuner

Meanwhile, this week, 2 friends sold their properties on the first offer date, for significantly over asking, w/o subjects.

Dat GVRD real estate anomaly.......

That's the competition you face
I know dat feel tho

[tool001]

Don't tell Harper government that..

[Hehe]

Except real estate, I'm not sure what industry is doing well in Canada.

My ex-colleague is telling me that my office has just layoff 12 people due to strong competition from US.

My friend who owns a supermarket has a drop of 15% in revenue last month alone.

Another friend who works at Ford is barely making enough so he still has a shelter and food on the table.

It's time for Harper to admit that their bet on a resource-oriented economy plan for Canada has failed (same as Russia) and move to something else.

Too bad it's election year, so it's all about saving face. They would never recognize that they have made a mistake.

[MG1]

Us old time frugal types who've been through some tough times will do just fine. I worry about the young ones who have no idea how to cope when things get worse.

[godwin]

I lived through adult life in the last 3 recessions 80s, 90s, 00s.. This one is "mild", so far.. The worst one I remember was the one in the 90s, when CTV runs story every night about how RE agents were going broke and house sales broke record lows etc.

I think because we are out of sync right now with the States.. the States and UK are doing well.. so all car manufacturers in Ontario are doing awesome.. Movie industry here are doing great. Avcorp is doing overtime..

I go agree with MG1 though, but that's natural selection / Darwin award / Dog eat Dog world / reality.

[jasonturbo]

Canada did not push for a resource based economy, it was a a three pronged approach:

- Develop resources
- Encourage immigration (see item below lol)
- Fuel residential and commercial real estate

They pushed resource development with generous tax breaks and royalties, they drove the population up with immigration, and they propped up the economy with sub par lending practices and emergency interest rates.

Here's to planning ahead!

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Hehe

My friend who owns a supermarket has a drop of 15% in revenue last month alone.

Another friend who works at Ford is barely making enough so he still has a shelter and food on the table.

It's time for Harper to admit that their bet on a resource-oriented economy plan for Canada has failed (same as Russia) and move to something else.

Too bad it's election year, so it's all about saving face. They would never recognize that they have made a mistake.

Retail is doing well as the industry is splintering into high-end and low-end markets. Dollarama is expanding like gangbusters while at the high-end, sales at Holt and Rosen seem to be doing well enough to fund expansions and renovations. Luxury car sales seem to be strong too - even an average Joe can afford a 4-cylinder, leatherette, de-contented BMW or Benz with the very attractive leasing programs. Ford is doing poorly because they've been living off their truck business for the last decade.

The supermarket business has always been cutthroat. Of course, it doesn't help that the cost of everything is going up, so people are substituting proteins or relying on no-names to get by. People also expect loyalty programs in return for their patronage. I also think that the market is splintering with upper middle income earners going to farmer's markets and organic grocers, such as Whole Foods.

Harper relied on a resource economy because that's where the votes were. He can pretty much count on 25-30% support at any one time, regardless of the circumstances.

[NotRevSeen]

Move to another province where your bang for your buck gets you further. Face it, Vancouver is expensive as hell. Nobody really wants to move to one of the prairie or maritime provinces, but in all honesty it would be cheaper to live. You gotta pay to play and frankly everyone is paying to be able to make Vancouver their home. Supply & demand at its finest!

[Manic!]

Originally Posted by NotRevSeen

Move to another province where your bang for your buck gets you further. Face it, Vancouver is expensive as hell. Nobody really wants to move to one of the prairie or maritime provinces, but in all honesty it would be cheaper to live. You gotta pay to play and frankly everyone is paying to be able to make Vancouver their home. Supply & demand at its finest!

Vancouver does not equal all of B.C.

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Retail is doing well as the industry is splintering into high-end and low-end markets. Dollarama is expanding like gangbusters while at the high-end, sales at Holt and Rosen seem to be doing well enough to fund expansions and renovations. Luxury car sales seem to be strong too - even an average Joe can afford a 4-cylinder, leatherette, de-contented BMW or Benz with the very attractive leasing programs. Ford is doing poorly because they've been living off their truck business for the last decade.

Yea all thanks to the rich immigrants who like to buy high end brands, drive up the price of property and force a lot of hard working class to rent or move away to farther away (IE Port Moody, White Rock). Lets face it even Burnaby, Coq housing price is insane.

Pretty much we are divided into two groups now. People who have money (high class and rich immigrants) and middle/low/students buying and spending their money on low end products.

[J____]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

Yea all thanks to the rich immigrants who like to buy high end brands, drive up the price of property and force a lot of hard working class to rent or move away to farther away (IE Port Moody, White Rock). Lets face it even Burnaby, Coq housing price is insane.

Pretty much we are divided into two groups now. People who have money (high class and rich immigrants) and middle/low/students buying and spending their money on low end products.

that's pretty much how every major city is in the world. Manhattan is full of rich non local americans/foreigners, london, tokyo, hong kong, shanghai. All the "locals" are either pushed to the burbs or move to cheaper alternative cities. Only place not like this is norway, they just dont give a fuk if you have money or not. You're not getting in means you're not getting in

[asian_XL]

http://www.ccdi.gov.cn/
Canada and China signing deal to share ?corruption? assets

go report your Chinese neighbour to have their illegal asset confiscate

[asian_XL]

.

[multicartual]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

Pretty much we are divided into two groups now. People who have money (high class and rich immigrants) and middle/low/students buying and spending their money on low end products.

As long as we live in a culture that defines "success" by how much money you have, the above will be the natural order of things!

[multicartual]

Originally Posted by JasonDussault39

where did our dollar go?

I get paid in USD... let it slide baby, woo!!!

[asian_XL]

and you don't get double taxed?

[NotRevSeen]

Originally Posted by Manic!

Vancouver does not equal all of B.C.

I was referring to Vancouver proper. There are many places in BC that I would agree is cheaper but you're talking about small town remote locations that I don't see droves of people willing to move to, because a large majority wants to live in the GVRD.

[NKC ONE]

Originally Posted by asian_XL

?????????
Canada and China signing deal to share ?corruption? assets

go report your Chinese neighbour to have their illegal asset confiscate

I can't believe this is finally happening.