REVscene - Vancouver Automotive Forum

Marshall Placid · 04-10-2016, 01:25 AM

For those interested in the financial aspects of the deposits:

Quote:

At the splashy reveal event for the Model 3 EV, Tesla Motors unveiled the car but little other information about it. Having outlined the basics—that the car will start at $35,000, seat five, and offer two- or all-wheel drive—details about the car’s battery pack, power system, and more were held back for release at a later date. As it turns out, that later date was this past Sunday afternoon, two days after the official Model 3 reveal, when Tesla CEO Elon Musk took a few moments to respond to the public’s questions on Twitter.

In multiple tweets, Musk clarified both the Model 3’s standard and optional drive systems, as well as how many pre-orders the company already has for the car. Speaking to the Model 3’s standard drive configuration, Musk said it will use a single electric motor (as does the Model S sedan) powering the rear wheels; the optional setup will also mimic that on the Model S, which is to say it’ll use an extra electric motor to also power the front wheels. Horsepower and torque figures, alas, remain elusive, and Musk made several bizarre statements regarding the Model 3’s steering system, describing the production unit as “feeling like a spaceship.” The outlook is rosier (and more down to earth) on the order bank side of things, where Elon claims Tesla has received more than 276,000 pre-orders for the Model 3 globally.

Naturally, online (where not everyone with an opinion has studied Business Accounting 101, or even basic arithmetic) there has been some confusion as to the monetary value of those orders. Allow us to clear that up. Each pre-order customer puts down a $1000, refundable deposit to reserve a Model 3. Simple math returns an immediate yield for Tesla of $276 million, not the billions of dollars that some—including Mr. Musk, again via Twitter—have touted. Any figure using the “b” word counts the value of those orders as final sales. (Multiplying the Model 3’s $35K base price by the current number of reservations nets Tesla a still-theoretical $9.6 billion, although Musk tweeted $7.5 billion, assuming a $42K average transaction price and an earlier, smaller, figure for the total number of reservations.) Some have breathlessly described such billions as a windfall for Tesla before it has delivered a single Model 3. However, neither we nor Tesla see its deposit money that way. The automaker is adamant that the $1000 deposits aren’t counted as revenue until after a customer actually takes delivery of a car (the deposit represents an initial payment against the eventual purchase price of a Model 3). And deliveries happen only after customers receive purchase agreements and configure their cars, steps that eager Model 3 reservationists are still waiting to take. Tesla, for its part, has promised that the first Model 3s will be delivered late next year.

So what does $276 million in deposits mean to Tesla’s balance sheet? Until the day that it eventually starts being converted to revenue, i.e. when sales commence—if those sales commence—it’s both a cash asset and an offsetting liability. According to Tesla’s past SEC filings—and as confirmed by a company representative—deposit money is not counted as revenue, but is lumped into the company’s cash holdings. The caveat is that deposits (in total) are specified in a separate line under “liabilities” on the company balance sheet. Ergo, customer deposits can and likely will be used for, say, helping launch the Model 3 or for general operating expenses (just as deposits for the Model S and Model X were), while the sum of deposits on undelivered cars remains listed as debt on the balance sheet—it’s not Tesla’s revenue until it receives it in exchange for an actual car.

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But wait, what if all of those consumers asked for their money back or Tesla, for some reason, couldn’t fulfill its obligation to deliver cars? That would be an issue, but likely not a debilitating one. Unlike many other start-up car companies we’ve seen over the years, Tesla is not so under-capitalized that these deposits represent a majority of its assets. As of December 31, 2015, Tesla had $1.2 billion in “cash and cash equivalents.” Furthermore, Tesla’s been down this road before, only with less fanfare. Tesla’s annual SEC filing, as of December 31, 2015 showed it already held $283 million in customer deposits, most of which ostensibly were for the still-fresh Model X crossover. Of course, there were fewer reservations for the Model X than for the 3—hence it avoided the sort of frenzy and speculative discussion that has surrounded the Model 3 order process—but the deposit total for that car was greater because would-be customers needed to shell out $5000 to get in that line. So long story short, even though Model 3 deposits are assumed to have inflated Tesla’s cash and liability figures an equal amount, even before the 3’s order books opened the company had more than enough cash on hand (plus other assets) to draw from should it need to meet refund obligations.

Tesla CEO Clarifies Model 3 Features, Reservation Tally Via Twitter ? News ? Car and Driver | Car and Driver Blog

thumper · 04-13-2016, 07:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Timpo

Does Toyota still own Tesla?

I think Toyota bought Tesla a while ago in hopes to get Tesla technology for Toyota hybrids.

Unplugged: Toyota Axing RAV4 EV, Won't Renew Tesla Deal ? News ? Car and Driver | Car and Driver Blog

m4k4v4li · 04-21-2016, 12:57 AM

thumper · 05-10-2016, 11:14 AM

Marshall Placid · 12-03-2016, 12:13 AM

Just read this article today.

Very interesting:

Tesla: Model 3 Could Put Elon Musk Out of Business, Hedge Fund Warns

Quote:

Tesla has to double the Model 3’s advertised price or it will lose tons of money, he says.
Tesla Motors customers are lining up to wait as much as two years to own the company’s eagerly anticipated cheaper electric car, the Model 3. But while the new car has created a lot of buzz for Tesla TSLA -0.23% , one high-performing hedge fund manger says the Model 3 will end up being a total wreck for the company. In fact, he says it will likely put Tesla out of business. Put another way: His price target for Tesla’s stock: $0.

Mark Spiegel, founder of hedge fund Stanphyl Capital Partners, says the Model 3—which Tesla CEO Elon Musk has promised to sell for as little as $35,000—may put Tesla on a path to bankruptcy before it even comes out.

Speaking at the Robin Hood Investors Conference this week, Spiegel laid out his case in a 152-slide presentation on why he is shorting, i.e. betting against, Tesla stock. Factor in the debt, and he thinks the car company is worth less than zero. “I continue to believe that it’s the market’s biggest single-company stock bubble,” Spiegel elaborated in his November letter to investors, obtained by Fortune.

That so-called bubble deflated a bit after Spiegel’s presentation Tuesday morning, with Tesla stock falling more than 3% by the end of the day, while the broader market rose. Tesla shares fell another 4% Thursday after Spiegel’s presentation from the conference (which was closed to the media) was shared publicly.

Spiegel’s Stanphyl Capital manages $9 million. While that’s tiny in comparison to other hedge funds whose managers also presented at Robin Hood, from Jeff Smith’s Starboard Value to David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, Stanphyl’s assets have quintupled since Spiegel launched the fund about five years ago. This year, the fund has returned nearly 35% through November.

It isn’t the first time that a hedge fund short-seller has publicly attacked Tesla recently. Jim Chanos, the Kynikos Associates investor who lucratively shorted Enron before its scandalous demise, said in September that he is also shorting Tesla, believing the company is doomed, particularly after its controversial merger with SolarCity SCTY -0.29% is completed. Tesla’s stock price is down about 25% in 2016 so far.

But while other Tesla critics have emphasized the company’s rapid cash bleed; recent controversy over crashes seemingly related to drivers’ use of its autopilot feature; and conflicts of interest with SolarCity, of which Musk is chairman and his cousin is CEO, Spiegel focused on a different problem for Tesla.

The prospect of a $35,000 “mass-market” Tesla Model 3—much more affordable compared to Tesla’s other vehicles, which cost at least twice as much—is the “real reason” investors have bought into Tesla’s stock, Spiegel said at the conference Tuesday. But “that will never happen,” asserts Spiegel. That’s because at that price Tesla would be selling the Model 3 at “a gigantic loss”—indeed, it could lose nearly as much on each car as the price customers are paying for it, Spiegel estimates.

Here’s how he got there, by the numbers:

In Tesla’s latest quarter, it reported a $22 million surprise profit, its first in years. But much of the boost came from a one-off sale of government subsidy credits for electric vehicles that Tesla had been collecting. Without that, the company actually lost $117 million in the third quarter—or a loss of $4,710 per car.
Each car Tesla currently sells costs $81,000 to build, Spiegel estimates. Those cars are currently profitable on their own (excluding leased cars and other unrelated company expenses)—but they sell at an average of $105,900, a price point that’s only affordable for a higher-income segment of consumers.
In order to sell the Model 3 at as low a price as $35,000 and still make a profit, Tesla would have to cut its production costs by more than half.
Where will Tesla find all those savings? The company hasn’t said specifically, but Spiegel estimates that it can cut about $6,000 off the $81,000-per-car cost by using its new batteries produced at its so-called gigafactory (which also cost $5 billion to build), another $5,000 by using cheaper parts for the Model 3—substituting steel for aluminum, for example—and $5,000 on top of that by finding ways to make its manufacturing more efficient (perhaps with greater automation). Still, that only brings the cost to build each Model 3 down to $65,000, much more than Tesla plans to sell it for. But Spiegel gives Musk some benefit of the doubt, and allows for what the investor calls a “cost savings fudge factor” that’s “extremely generous” and “probably undeserved” but which could knock off as much as $15,000 or so off the cost—bringing the cost per Model 3 down to just under $50,000, say $48,000 at the lowest.
While Tesla has said the Model 3 will be available for as little as $35,000, Musk has predicted that the average sales price of the car will be $43,000, once customers add various upgrades and features. At that price and a minimum of $48,000 in costs per car, Tesla would lose at least $5,000 for every Model 3 it sells.

The obvious solution? Tesla needs to raise the price of the Model 3—to at least $50,000 for a bare-bones model, or 43% higher than the price currently promised, Spiegel predicts. “I wouldn’t be surprised if Musk claims a $35,000 base price but then never delivers any even CLOSE to that number,” Spiegel tells Fortune in an email.

It wouldn’t be the first time Tesla hiked the base price of one of its cars after promising it would be lower. When Tesla began delivering initial orders of its Model S electric sedan in June 2012, it sold them at a base price of $57,400. Just five months later, however, Tesla raised the car’s starting price to $59,900. About four months after that, though, Tesla cancelled the lowest-end Model S version, making the car’s new starting price $10,000 higher, at $69,000—20% higher than the low price it initially teased.

Yet with the “mass-market” Model 3, selling the car for more could be just as fatal a sentence for Tesla as selling it at a loss. If Tesla raised the base price of the car to $50,000 or more, as Spiegel expects, the Model 3 would no longer be competitive with the many other electric cars that will be on the market by then—as the Model 3 won’t start shipping to customers until the end of next year, and likely not before the end of 2018 for most orders, analysts predict.

For example, at a price of $50,000, the Model 3 would be about 33% more expensive than the cheapest Chevy Bolt, an electric car from GM GM -2.80% that’s already on the market starting at $37,495 at select dealerships—more than a year (or two) earlier than the Model 3.

And the higher the price of the Model 3 goes, the more Musk’s dream of a cheap and affordable Tesla disappears. And without that mainstream demand, Spiegel thinks Tesla’s future doesn’t look so bright at all.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

TLDR:

Quote: "Tesla needs to raise the price of the Model 3—to at least $50,000 for a bare-bones model, or 43% higher than the price currently promised, Spiegel predicts. “I wouldn’t be surprised if Musk claims a $35,000 base price but then never delivers any even CLOSE to that number."

and:

"While Tesla has said the Model 3 will be available for as little as $35,000, Musk has predicted that the average sales price of the car will be $43,000, once customers add various upgrades and features. At that price and a minimum of $48,000 in costs per car, Tesla would lose at least $5,000 for every Model 3 it sells."

asian_XL · 12-03-2016, 06:50 AM

VW is pushing its e-golf to have 200km range
BMW is also adding range to its i3 and you should see EV Mini pretty soon. I believe the Leaf gets larger battery in 2016 already.

In Asia and Europe, the Renault Zoe is now 200km EV. MB has the EV B-class on the road already.

$35000 Model 3 should be pretty basic, mostly like the 60D basic. I assume most people ordering it is expecting to pay 40k+ as we all know Tesla options aren't really that cheap. For me, I am expecting to pay 45K+ for the dual motor model. Anything fancy like the glass roof or large rims or biochemical filter is only a luxury thing.

I heard Musk is building battery plants in China or somewhere in Europe, hope that will lower the building cost.

threezero · 12-03-2016, 09:30 AM

Agree that TSLA is the biggest single company stock bubble. Remember all the facebook post and twitter about TSLA going to the moon when it was at its peak at 280??? everyone on social media is so sure its going past 300$

TSLA is a triple digit penny stock.

Hehe · 12-03-2016, 01:42 PM

From an investor perspective, I'm not so sure TSLA is going under.

The reason lies behind the gigafactory that TSLA owns. TSLA is not betting on becoming a dominant player in the car industry, but rather the absolute requirement of EV: batteries.

By pricing Model 3 at or near its cost (assuming it's not willing to lose huge amount of money), it creates the economy of scale it needs to sustain such a gigantic battery production. Furthermore, it's betting that by doing so, it would attract major players in car industry to join suit (which it's clear that it's having effect)... and it would benefit itself as a major battery producer down the road.

Panasonic/Tesla collaboration already positioned themselves as the largest battery producer in the world. Its single production is roughly no.2~4 combined. If all vehicles were to switch to EV based, it's in a great spot.

If you look at TSLA products and acquisitions, you can see that it's not looking to expand in car industry, but rather additional usages of its batteries. Solar City is a great example: you can generate whatever amount of electricity... but you ultimately need somewhere to store it - TSLA batteries.

Full disclosure: I have no TSLA position and no plan on doing so.

DragonChi · 12-03-2016, 01:50 PM

Chevy Bolt is going to be around 30,000 USD. After tax incentives.

Apparently Chevy is losing 9,000 per vehicle.

It's got decent range at ~230 miles.

I think they're pretty aggressive on this to get market share, whatever that means. Good news for the consumer though

Manic! · 12-03-2016, 02:51 PM

All Tesla vehicles produced starting next year will be able to go full autonomous by 2018. They will also have there own version of Uber that will be fully autonomous using customers cars. That has the possibility to make them tons of money. So they can sell the cars at cost and still turn a profit. They have also already banned people from using there autonomous cars for Uber.

Kilinim · 12-03-2016, 02:59 PM

Tempted to put a deposit on a 3...anybody else have one in?

Hehe · 12-04-2016, 02:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kilinim

Tempted to put a deposit on a 3...anybody else have one in?

Yes, have one from day 1. But even that we are not expecting to receive in the first batch.

ravenhill · 12-04-2016, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Manic!

All Tesla vehicles produced starting next year will be able to go full autonomous by 2018. They will also have there own version of Uber that will be fully autonomous using customers cars. That has the possibility to make them tons of money. So they can sell the cars at cost and still turn a profit. They have also already banned people from using there autonomous cars for Uber.

And what makes this a guarantee? I'm not doubting that the technology will one day be achievable. But in a couple years? Sounds to me like yet another grandiose Tesla claim.

Manic! · 12-04-2016, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravenhill

And what makes this a guarantee? I'm not doubting that the technology will one day be achievable. But in a couple years? Sounds to me like yet another grandiose Tesla claim.

Because the technology already exists.

https://www.google.com/selfdrivingcar/where/
https://techcrunch.com/2016/11/21/nutonomy-boston/
https://www.wired.com/2016/10/ubers-...y-50000-beers/

Watch the first minute

George Hotz' Self-Driving Car Project Code Is Now Available Online : Auto News : Auto World News

and Apple is ?excited? about the potential of self-driving cars | Ars Technica

ravenhill · 12-04-2016, 01:40 PM

Ah yes, George Hotz, who apparently recently quit his plan to sell his "$999 autonomous driving upgrade kit" once safety regulators started making inquiries. In his words, “Would much rather spend my life building amazing tech than dealing with regulators and lawyers."

Sounds like reliable and safe autonomous car technology for sure.

....But wait! He's apparently now released some self-driving software. Oh, hang on, according to him: “We’re not shipping a product.... We’re shipping alpha software really for research purposes only. We do not provide any guarantees.”

Okay.

The technology for autonomous vehicles happily and safely negotiating city streets, in all weather conditions, is "here" in the same way the technology for VR is "here". It's within our grasp, but still relatively rudimentary. All I see in those articles are phrases like "begin testing" and technology staying "only on the highway, where it doesn’t have to deal with tricky variables".

Manic! · 12-04-2016, 02:39 PM

Well for claims they will have a car buy 2021.

https://media.ford.com/content/fordm...g-in-2021.html

Same goes for BMW.
https://www.wired.com/2016/07/bmws-b...ving-car-2021/

ravenhill · 12-04-2016, 03:11 PM

Sure, I won't deny it, who knows what will happen. Of course, it's not like auto manufacturers have ever given rosy predictions of launch dates or anything...

And let's not forget that according to Google in 2012, we should pretty much be in autonomous cars by now:

https://www.cnet.com/news/googles-se...ithin-5-years/

Mr.Money · 12-04-2016, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kilinim

Tempted to put a deposit on a 3...anybody else have one in?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hehe

Yes, have one from day 1. But even that we are not expecting to receive in the first batch.

that's bullshit,wonder how much interest their making in the bank with everyone's fee.

twitchyzero · 12-04-2016, 09:52 PM

glad i didn't put down a deposit...almost got hyped into being an early adopter though

by the time it's actually widely available in Canada I'm almost sure there will be other players with competitive offerings.

dlo · 12-04-2016, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twitchyzero

glad i didn't put down a deposit...almost got hyped into being an early adopter though

by the time it's actually widely available in Canada I'm almost sure there will be other players with competitive offerings.

exactly the reason why i sold my deposit to a friend lol, by the time it comes out, theres probably gonna be electric cars with better range/more options, the tesla is sick but its gonna take way too long...

freakshow · 07-06-2017, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday

my body is ready

thumper · 07-29-2017, 04:36 AM

!Aznboi128 · 07-29-2017, 07:14 AM

the interior looks a lot better than I had anticipated

Nlkko · 07-29-2017, 07:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by threezero

Agree that TSLA is the biggest single company stock bubble. Remember all the facebook post and twitter about TSLA going to the moon when it was at its peak at 280??? everyone on social media is so sure its going past 300$

TSLA is a triple digit penny stock.

The stock has 2x from this post which was 7 months ago ��

Love the new video, find me a CEO/ President of a multi billion dollar company that can speak about their product like this guy.

But of course you can wait until 2021 to buy a Ford ��

BaoTurbo · 07-29-2017, 09:35 AM

I got a buddy that wants to back out and hes in the 300ish spot. Anybody know if the deposits can change names or maybe different owner name when purchase time comes at the very least?