Column: Subway to UBC still a financial pipe dream

[wahyinghung]

One of the next big megaplans the provincial government is contemplating is tunneling a subway under Vancouver’s west side, stretching from near City Hall to the University of British Columbia. It’s a bold, forward-looking idea that will cost $3 billion.

But it’s also an idea far too ahead of its time.

The government — and its public transit agency, TransLink — needs to be looking in the other direction when it comes to public transit. The next major infusion of public transit money needs to be directed toward the outskirts of Metro Vancouver, where a population boom is underway that will transform the city.

But first, let’s get back to that $3-billion tunnel through Vancouver’s west side to the University of British Columbia.

It’s hard not to like a pipe dream like this. In theory it will take thousands of cars off the roads, we’d get rid of the crowding on buses and perhaps stimulate higher-density condo building. It will supposedly help reduce our carbon footprint.

Here’s a little-heard reality check, though.

Aside from the occasionally stop-and-go traffic on Broadway between Cambie and Granville streets, there are no real traffic jams out to the university. Vancouver’s west side is a slow-growth area when compared to the other areas of Metro Vancouver.

A subway to UBC is also a questionable economic deal.

Let’s suppose 100,000 people would use that $3-billion rail line — a ridership figure far, far in the future. If it was financed at five per cent a year for 30 years, the actual construction cost to the taxpayer would be $5.8 billion.

That means about $58,000 per rider. Put another way, those 100,000 riders would have to ride the rails every day, seven days a week, for $5 apiece, for more than 30 years to pay down the investment. And that wouldn’t even begin to pay for the system’s operating costs.

But aside from the humongous bill, it’s the population growth statistics that don’t support this megaproject.

Metro Vancouver’s population was estimated at 2.2 million people in 2006. By 2031, 25 years from now, the population will grow to 3.2 million. That’s about a 45-per-cent increase.

But you have to ask yourself where that growth will be. It’s certainly not spread out equally. And it’s not going to be on Vancouver’s expensive west side.

Statistics show the City of Vancouver, which would be the biggest beneficiary of the UBC rail line, will grow from a population of 607,000 to 709,000 by 2031. That’s a modest 17-per-cent increase.

Contrast that to Abbotsford, Coquitlam, Langley Township and Surrey. According to an analysis from the office of Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts, those four “high-growth-communities” will grow collectively at a rate of approximately 20,800 people per year, meaning an additional 520,000 by the year 2031.

The current population of those communities in 2006 was about 770,000. It will reach 1.29 million people by 2031. That means a 67-per-cent boost in population.

It means in less than a generation, we will have the equivalent of Canada’s fourth-largest city sitting on the edge of Metro Vancouver. That means more cars, more traffic jams and more greenhouse gas emissions that will erode our standard of living.

Yet there’s little talk amongst our megaplanners of extending a rapid-rail system out to those fast-growing communities.

But ask them these questions: Should the City of Vancouver — which will grow by 17 per cent in 2031 — get a $3-billion public-transit rail line? Or should we be thinking of putting that public infrastructure in an area growing four times faster than the City of Vancouver and save us from turning into Los Angeles north?
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Col...432/story.html

[twitchyzero]

by then the endowment lands would be worth soooo much money.

I thought that's what Millenium Line is for..and I thought they would build an extension to that before building UBC evergreen line.

[orange7]

hm.. at first i thought this would be another speech of translink wanting more money. haha.. this time i have to agree with translink; there should be a rail line out there before the ubc rail line.

[penner2k]

put a rail line down the middle of highway 1 all the way from Chilliwack..
Hopefully when they build the new Port Mann they build it in such a way that they can put some sorta train on the same bridge instead of building another bridge for trains..
It only needs to goto Coquitlam.. then people can get off and jump on the skytrain..

[taylor192]

Increased public transit out to Surrey will only fuel Surrey's urban sprawl.
Ottawa has a similar problem, with people commuting from the burbs. There was a lot of worry that high-speed rail out to the burbs will only convince more people to live further outside even the burbs, drive into the burbs, then take transit.

Ottawa's solution was to tell the burbs "until you are a city onto yourself, a place where people can work, play, live, ... then no transit for you" and instead focused on building upwards, not outwards.

Does Surrey have a plan to combat urban sprawl? It could become the next Mississauga, a suburb of Toronto where you can work, play, live, ... all in Mississauga, its not a commuting suburb like Oakville where people only live and there's no industry.

I'm for the line to UBC and tackling the problem of increased density in West Vancouver. I live in Kits and traffic is fairly light compared to other areas of the city. Build upwards, not outwards, and there's lots of space left... its just not affordable.

Build more entry-level units - ie no granite counters, no cermaic, no upgraded fixtures, no fireplaces, ... and a normal building, not some world-class design yet has a lot of wasted-space like the Olympic village. This would easily knock 20% off the prices, and lower strata fees.

[taylor192]

How much did the Golden Ears bridge cost? and how much will it contribute to further urban sprawl and traffic problems?

The solutions have to be up, not out.

[JesseBlue]

screw vancouver this time...put some stuff in surrey...i'm sorry but not all jobs are in vancouver..with the population of surrey and we only have 3 (ok 4 counting scott road station) stations...
i feel sorry for peeps in port coquitlam as they were promised so many years ago but took a back seat and then use the olympics as an excuse to build...umm..sure..

[q0192837465]

I think Surrey is already another city centre. People who live in surrey dun have to come out, except for work. If there's a high speed railway into surrey, it'll convince business to move there as there's more space & rent's cheaper. It's a good way to let the city grow

[taylor192]

Originally Posted by q0192837465

I think Surrey is already another city centre. People who live in surrey dun have to come out, except for work. If there's a high speed railway into surrey, it'll convince business to move there as there's more space & rent's cheaper. It's a good way to let the city grow

I have never been to Surrey, if that is the case, then hell ya, throw more transportation options out there. What about connecting Surrey and Richmond directly? Both seem to fit the model of "a city onto itself".

[q0192837465]

Originally Posted by taylor192

I have never been to Surrey, if that is the case, then hell ya, throw more transportation options out there. What about connecting Surrey and Richmond directly? Both seem to fit the model of "a city onto itself".

The same can be said for coquitlam as well. But the thing is that most commercial sector jobs r still in core vancouver, that's y so many ppl have to come out to vancouver everyday.

Richmond is full of retail businesses, but no big firms, so I doubt rmd can survive on its own.

[JesseBlue]

vancouver has just more financial sectors...i don't want to pay taxes that will screw surrey (since i live there) and put more buses/options in vancouver...i want to take the transit but screw waiting 30mins-1 hour for a bus that sometimes doesn't come...therefore i'll continue to use the car

[goo3]

How far is that 5 lane hwy going out to?

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by q0192837465

The same can be said for coquitlam as well. But the thing is that most commercial sector jobs r still in core vancouver, that's y so many ppl have to come out to vancouver everyday.

Richmond is full of retail businesses, but no big firms, so I doubt rmd can survive on its own.

richmond has some big corporations, Microsoft, honda, toyota, some other big tech companies. they are all out by no 5, no 6 road and westminster hwy. also around westminster hwy and no 7 and 8 road (east east richmond)

burnaby has that area in south burnaby at the end of boundary road and also on girlmore. plus along canada way and brentwood mall area

surrey - has tax centre, small bc hydro office- -and thats basically it. no really big corporate offices. surrey has the scotia building by scott road but its really not a major corporate office. I live in surrey and theres nothing here in terms of white collar corporate employment.

some of the stuff in downtown vancouver needs to move out to coquitlam or surrey.