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darkfroggy 10-23-2010 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by highfive (Post 7156813)
How is the USD going to collapse?

Is there a better asset to use as a country's reserve? The Euro? Their economy is deep in shit as well. Yen? what growth has Japan experienced in the past decade? Reminbi? Yeah until the China government opens up all parts of their economies including the risk of foreign takeovers, China will take a long period of time to open up their Reminbi for the world. Gold? Yeah, how much gold do you need to use to back up an economy of 8 trillion (China) or 14 trillion (US).

As of the next 20-50 years, USD is still the world's currency. They are the biggest buyers and borrowers. Everyone is too tied up to the US. You know, the 800 billion of debt China holds, US can always default on it. There goes the 800 billion you lent plus the millions of jobs lost. China will have too much to handle before they can make US their bitch.

Pretty sure you don't just walk away from 800 billion, bud.

RollingStone 10-23-2010 01:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by highfive (Post 7156813)
How is the USD going to collapse?

Is there a better asset to use as a country's reserve? The Euro? Their economy is deep in shit as well. Yen? what growth has Japan experienced in the past decade? Reminbi? Yeah until the China government opens up all parts of their economies including the risk of foreign takeovers, China will take a long period of time to open up their Reminbi for the world. Gold? Yeah, how much gold do you need to use to back up an economy of 8 trillion (China) or 14 trillion (US).

As of the next 20-50 years, USD is still the world's currency. They are the biggest buyers and borrowers. Everyone is too tied up to the US. You know, the 800 billion of debt China holds, US can always default on it. There goes the 800 billion you lent plus the millions of jobs lost. China will have too much to handle before they can make US their bitch.

The American dollar has already collapsed in terms of world confidence, which is no small part of what makes up a world currency. The only thing propping up the American Dollar is that the United State government has effectively forced the world to buy/sell oil in Dollars. Saddam wanted to start selling Iraq's oil in Euros and they were almost instantly invaded. (This is obviously not the main reason why the US invaded but I think it had a big influence on the timing of the invasion). A few years ago, Iran also began proposing to start selling their oil in Euros and the Bush Administration immediately stepped into war mode, threatening Iran and provoking incessantly.

America being the world's biggest debtor nation does not bring it any economic respite. Debt holders may not be able to demand repayment but they are receiving interest, hundreds of million$ of dollars in interest. America also has the worlds largest share of private debt. In addition America is waging two global wars that are 100% being financed by borrowed money (this has never happened before).

Anybody with any basic economic/monetary sense knows that you must invest more than you spend if you want a bright future. The United States is PRINTING MONEY JUST TO SERVICE THE INTEREST ON THEIR DEBT LOL! The collapse of the Dollar is no longer a question of whether but when.

And as to the person above who said the collapse of the Dollar to be impossible for the reason that there is no viable alternative: Says who? There has already been high level talks by the worlds major actors seriously considering adopting a world currency in anticipation of the collapse of the dollar, as to avert its catastrophic consequences. If a global currency turns out to be not viable, then the dollar could easily be replaced by a consortium of currencies (the Yen, RMB, Euro, Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Austrian Dollar, etc). International transactions would require a bit more work, but its by no means unworkable. In fact, many countries would welcome it, especially those oil exporting countries. They would no longer be forced to put their money in American banks and be subject to their terms.

Arash 10-23-2010 02:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by highfive (Post 7156813)
How is the USD going to collapse?

Is there a better asset to use as a country's reserve? The Euro? Their economy is deep in shit as well. Yen? what growth has Japan experienced in the past decade? Reminbi? Yeah until the China government opens up all parts of their economies including the risk of foreign takeovers, China will take a long period of time to open up their Reminbi for the world. Gold? Yeah, how much gold do you need to use to back up an economy of 8 trillion (China) or 14 trillion (US).

As of the next 20-50 years, USD is still the world's currency. They are the biggest buyers and borrowers. Everyone is too tied up to the US. You know, the 800 billion of debt China holds, US can always default on it. There goes the 800 billion you lent plus the millions of jobs lost. China will have too much to handle before they can make US their bitch.

I believe the central bankers control the Yen, Euro and the Dollars on one side and major powers like Russia, China, India and Iran are an opposing force on the other.

Do you think a currency that is constantly increasing in debt and now over 13 trillion is a stable one?

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkfroggy (Post 7156814)
^ Arash

I kind of face-palmed when you suggested that the Great Depression was a conspiracy...

I cant convince you by typing what a 3 hour documentary points out, so you can decide after watching it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkfroggy (Post 7156814)
What do you mean "where do we import our food when there's a world shortage." The reason we do NOT have a shortage of specific foods is because we're importing it in the first place. Canada cannot grow bananas and oranges because you say so. That would be grossly inefficient and a waste of resources that could have been put to better use.

What about the strawberries and even blueberries that are imported during the summer. Peaches, grapes and apples are grown here, but we find imported ones for sale which is obviously cheaper to even make it here. Putting farmers out of business and lessening our local food supply so that corporations can profit is stupid in my opinion.

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkfroggy (Post 7156814)
What you are suggesting is that Canada should be self-dependent. This is totally impossible and infeasible, humans have used trade for millenia to better themselves. We cannot grow our own cotton nor mangos without some drastic reductions in standards of living. You can try growing peaches in this cold climate, or you can produce autombiles for export, and then import cheap food thanks to the gains. Let me know when food prices were so high, Canada closed down some of its factories and businesses so it could grow some oranges.

Our province has been trading since the fur trade, Im not against trade, Im against large American corporations taking local jobs away by importing cheap products.

Answer me these 3 things
What job does your father have?
What job do you have now if you have one?
What kind of career do you plan to have in the future?

I doubt there will be a future in most jobs today unless its a service job... even then.

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkfroggy (Post 7156814)
Fruits and vegetables taste like shit? According to what, the apples and oranges you grow in your backyard? The apples in the store always tasted superior to anything I grew. Don't ever eat out or buy lunch, the restaurants WILL use those nasty, GMO modified fruits to maximize revenue.

Its industrialized, either imported or grown locally without the proper taxation, I would rather reward our citizens to produce our food. Specially the tomatoes!

RollingStone 10-23-2010 04:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkfroggy (Post 7156714)
WTF?

Free trade makes things better off for EVERYONE. You do know that tariffs on goods makes it WORSE for the economy. If the Chinese can make applicanes more efficiently than everyone else, then it makes sense to leave it to THEM. The US can focus its energy on MORE productive ventures (research, oil production, anything).

Farmers lose jobs? Buddy, this is nothing new. The amount of people in the agricultural industry has been decreasing steadily over the last century. This is thanks to improvements in technology, which allows us to get a higher overall yield with less work. Thus, the decline in farmers.

You want consumers to pay much higher prices so a few farmers can keep their jobs? This is grossly inefficient and hurts the economy to help a select minority. Having less people in agriculture frees them up to work in other sectors of the economy which need the labour such as construction or medical sciences.

If you want an example of how tariffs screw everyone over, just look at the Great Depression.

Sorry if sounded defensive. Ask any economist if free trade is a good thing, almost all will say yes.

Your explanations work well in the classroom but do not hold up in the real world. Neo-liberals have done great work in brainwashing society into thinking that free-market fundamentalism is the answer to all our economic problems.

Inconveniently however, reality paints a very different picture. EVERY SINGLE developed country (the only possible exception being Hong Kong) has risen on the back of massive government involvement in the economy. Government intervention defined as: high tariffs, very liberal income redistribution policies, huge government investment in key sectors, etc.

Case in point, when the United States was in its developmental phase, it was extremely protective of its young economy. It had in place very high tariffs to limit imports from the more advanced European countries. In the 20th century, the government invested billions into obscure technologies like the micro processor and what is now known as the internet. The apex of the American economy was in the 50's and 60's when the American economy virtually rivaled the rest of the worlds' economy combined! This era was characterized by very protectionist measures (i.e. high tariffs), high/progressive income taxes (the top tax rate was 90%!), high investment in social programs (i.e. the GI Bill), etc, etc.

In more recent times, the Four Asian Tigers (namely, Taiwain, Singapore, South Korea, and to a extent Hong Kong), the "Miracles of the East" rose on the backs of very protectionist governmental policies. Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea took extreme measures to limit imports. In their developmental phase, they limited imports to only things that they absolutely required and forbade almost everything else (South Korea even limited foreign cigarets!). In the ensuing decades, these countries poured every last resource into developing their key industries/companies (cars, ships in South Korea, electronics in Taiwan). It is only very recently that these countries have begun to open up their economies to foreign competition. Their timing is not accidental, these countries opened up only AFTER their industries and economies matured to a level they feel that can compete with the west.

Guess where they got their economic blueprint from? Japan! These countries are now serving as working models to many other developing countries, the most notable being China!

Now turn to countries that adhered to 'Reganomics,' namely countries in South/Central America and Russia. South/Central America has had neo-liberal economic policies forced upon their governments for nearly a century and today they are the economic backwater of the western hemisphere. Not too long ago, many of these countries had very respectable per-capita-GDPs (i.e. Argentina once had one of the highest per-capita-GDPs in the world!). On a similar note, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian gov't asked the Americans to assist in restructuring their economy. The Americans counselled the Russians to open up their economy and let the free market 'do all the work.' We all know what happened after: all hell broke loose! The standard of living today for many Russians is WORSE TODAY than when they lived under communist rule! The only positive that came out of this fiasco was that the world took note and notably, China, took a very different path to transitioning their economy.

Turning back to the United States, the only reason why it's agricultural sector is 'competitive' is because they receive hundreds of million$ of dollar$ in subsidies every year. These mega-corporations then in turn lobby the US government to force other (mostly destitute countries like India, Mexico, Haiti, etc.) to adhere to "free-market" fundamentals. That is, to allow for unrestricted imports of American produce at artificially low prices (Dumping in economic jargon). The result is the devastation of millions of farmers in these countries. They are then forced to migrate, oftentimes illegally to foreign lands where they hope to find sustenance (i.e. Mexicans crossing into the US looking for jobs). Today, in India hundreds of farmers commit suicide because they can't compete with imported (heavily subsidized) produce from the United States. Disgracefully, Reganomics hasn't worked too well for the majority of Americans either. Today, the United States' middle class is shrinking by the day, its manufacturing sector is in tatters, its imports far more than it exports, and it has become the world's largest debtor despite decades of neo-liberal policies (beginning with Ragan). The only group that has benefited are those belonging to the top 10% of income earners, the standard of living for the remaining 90% has either stagnated or declined.

Contrast this to Germany. The country limits the ability of industry to offshore its manufacturing base and has also put in place some of the worlds toughest regulations which effectively limits much foreign imports. Japan has adhered to a even more isolated stance. Critic all you want about these these "protectionist" (socialist in American terms LOL) countries but its undeniable that they have some of the highest standards of living in the world!

Lastly, your reasoning for the cause of the Great Depression is also fallacious. It was not caused by protectionist policy. Even Milton Friedman, the godfather of neoliberalism in the United States, acknowledges that the prime factor was 'cheap money.' That is artificially low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve which in turn encouraged irresponsible borrowing and speculation in the marketplace. Which btw, is exactly what caused the Sub-Prime Crisis of '08. Greenspan himself testified that the neoliberal paradigm has been proven flawed,and that he, his life's work, proven WRONG!

Ferra 10-23-2010 06:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkfroggy (Post 7156734)
China can't/won't take back all the money.

They'll only be cannibalizing themselves, as the US is one of China's biggest trading partners and #1 consumer. If the US does well, China does well.

China relies heavily on its exports to keep its economy going.

short term yes
but at its current rate, it wouldn't be long before China's domestic demand becomes sufficient to take up most of its own production.
We are already seeing this in the industrial and building materials markets, and consumer goods will be next.

MoBettah 10-23-2010 07:45 AM

It's ironic because China uses all the current measures that they point out are mistakes in this video. Using government money for stimulus, health care changes, and government involvement with private industry - are exactly what Chinese government have been doing.

RFlush 10-23-2010 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkfroggy (Post 7156714)
WTF?

Free trade makes things better off for EVERYONE. You do know that tariffs on goods makes it WORSE for the economy. If the Chinese can make applicanes more efficiently than everyone else, then it makes sense to leave it to THEM. The US can focus its energy on MORE productive ventures (research, oil production, anything).

Farmers lose jobs? Buddy, this is nothing new. The amount of people in the agricultural industry has been decreasing steadily over the last century. This is thanks to improvements in technology, which allows us to get a higher overall yield with less work. Thus, the decline in farmers.

You want consumers to pay much higher prices so a few farmers can keep their jobs? This is grossly inefficient and hurts the economy to help a select minority. Having less people in agriculture frees them up to work in other sectors of the economy which need the labour such as construction or medical sciences.

If you want an example of how tariffs screw everyone over, just look at the Great Depression.

Sorry if sounded defensive. Ask any economist if free trade is a good thing, almost all will say yes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkfroggy (Post 7156814)
^ Arash

I kind of face-palmed when you suggested that the Great Depression was a conspiracy...

What do you mean "where do we import our food when there's a world shortage." The reason we do NOT have a shortage of specific foods is because we're importing it in the first place. Canada cannot grow bananas and oranges because you say so. That would be grossly inefficient and a waste of resources that could have been put to better use.

What you are suggesting is that Canada should be self-dependent. This is totally impossible and infeasible, humans have used trade for millenia to better themselves. We cannot grow our own cotton nor mangos without some drastic reductions in standards of living. You can try growing peaches in this cold climate, or you can produce autombiles for export, and then import cheap food thanks to the gains. Let me know when food prices were so high, Canada closed down some of its factories and businesses so it could grow some oranges.

Fruits and vegetables taste like shit? According to what, the apples and oranges you grow in your backyard? The apples in the store always tasted superior to anything I grew. Don't ever eat out or buy lunch, the restaurants WILL use those nasty, GMO modified fruits to maximize revenue.

I suggest you take an econ class aside from first year macroeconomics :rofl:

RollingStone 10-23-2010 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RFlush (Post 7156924)
I suggest you take an econ class aside from first year macroeconomics :rofl:

:rofl:

cressydrift 10-23-2010 09:37 AM

http://i.bnet.com/blogs/its_a_trap.jpg

Bouncing Bettys 10-23-2010 09:51 AM

The most respected leading economists in the 60's said Soviet Russia would surpass the US as the leading world power. In the 80's they said Japan would surpass the US as the leading world power. Neither happened, the economists were wrong. I guess we'll see how this one pans out.


That ad is pretty right leaning/tea party stuff. Blaming tax and spend behaviour for the US's woes when deregulation of various industries, lowering tax rates for the highest income earners, the busting up of labour unions, etc. has done much more damage.

DOHCVTEC 10-23-2010 09:54 AM

For those interested in a short, but insightful, talk on the current state of the world economy, including of course China and the US, I would recommend listening to Jim Rogers.

Co-founder of the Quantum Fund, he retired from Wall Street aged 40, went on two drives around the world, first on motorbike and then in a custom modified yellow Mercedes (a G-wagon with a SLK-shell), before selling his New York apartment to move to Asia, in anticipation of the shift in global economic power to China.

Here's a recent talk he gave about the world and about his move to Singapore, where both his daughters are learning Mandarin.


And this is the Q&A for that talk:

sundance1911 10-24-2010 04:55 AM

nice

Death2Theft 10-24-2010 08:58 AM

Right because everything that tastes bad can't be good.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Arash (Post 7156774)
With these machines that you speak of, why cant we have them working in our farms so that we can have cheap food too?
Also do you care for what happens to your children and their children's children? I dont know if you have noticed, but fruits and vegetables taste like shit, its genetically modified, drenched in pesticides, and who knows what kind of treatment the soil and water has been through. Our bodies can only stay health only if the building blocks are there, but with this imported large scale mutant food, its all going to go downhill.


Google watch a 3 hour documentary called the Money Master, the great depression was scheme to buy land off the Americans for pennies and economist cant predict what a roomful of central bankers decide.


sobranie33 10-24-2010 04:56 PM

For once, CNN pull off how China invade human right on Tibet example,now, they are pulling off how US government wasting government fund got owned by China. Where do they stand exactly?

m4k4v4li 10-26-2010 01:05 AM

what I really want to know is... wheres skinnypup in this conversation? no blanket statements about the big bad commies?


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