Wall Street players bet Vancouver's housing bubble is about to burst - News1130

Would be definitely interesting to see what happens if/when interest rates do rise.

What's was the old saying? History repeats itself? This is what happened to another Canadian market when interest rates rose, unemployment increased (look at oil/gas and potential trickle down) and drop in immigration/foreign money (what's going to happen when China escalates their crack down on corruption even further?)

Toronto Housing Bubble in 1989 | Toronto Condo Bubble

Also, in an industry highly correlated w/ the Chinese crackdown, here are the year over year results for Macau gaming industry so far this year in 2015:
2015 Macau numbers

It is down almost a whopping 40% year over year. This all started last year in 2014. In May YTD, the industry was almost 16% versus the prior year, but then the crackdown focused on money transfers and junket operators in Macau and the year finished in negative. The 2015 numbers shown above shows that Macau is now back to 2011 levels and erasing the last 3 years of double digit year over year growth.

2014 Macau numbers

What do you think is going to happen when they start looking at large money transfers into Canada?

How do you even short residential real estate. :ahwow:

I was just thinking that.

So... Like sell what you have right now and then buy when it bursts?

:lol

I've been renting for three years waiting for this to happen...
Maybe this fall it will finally become profitable to buy real estate again? I doubt it though. There are still a ton of folks sitting on money in the bank.

That said, if Canada goes down the same road that America did in 2008, we are collectively fucked.

We are well on our way. Oil and real estate can't sustain our whole country's economy forever. We could have sold off our water if we didn't already sell it to nestle for like $20 per million litres.

2 ways to look at things:

The long-term prospects for Canada are poor. Aging and relatively unhealthy population (BC notwithstanding), continuing loss of arable land and long-term drought in the west, over-educated populace with a risk-averse business class, and political institutions that are unresponsive to the pace of the world economy.

We're screwed. Sell everything, and hoard cash - after all, that's what the wealthy Canadians are doing. Better yet - obtain citizenship/right of abode in other countries to hedge your bets lest shit really hits the fan.

Or just stick your head in the sand, keep doing whatever you can to keep your head above-water and hope that your investments and state medicine are there for you when inevitable disease and decline set in.

Will the CND dollar drop more?


If so... damn I'll be ballin' again :)


Damn I might actually want to work more than an hour a day

this is taken from an article i read in the province today.

Will the Vancouver real estate bubble burst?

Please stop, you responded with this argument in another thread, I typed an entire response and then the stupid browser crashed, and I really didn't want to re-type the entire thing.

I know you're not stupid, so you can't really be naive enough to miss why the government allows these companies to well for almost free. Because even if it appears free, nothing in this fucking world is free.

These companies stimulate our economy, they create jobs, they pay lots of taxes, etc. That's why the government provides them so much incentive to do business here, because they are good for us, and without that incentive (or in this case an exponential hike in the cost of water), they will pack their shit up and go elsewhere.

This deal where the government sells water has been around for fucking decades, all of a sudden vancitybuzz posts and article about it, and all the idiots constantly use this one item for all source of arguments.

http://i.imgur.com/GieURMx.png


This is why I barely work, even if I doubled my income, my ability to afford a Vancouver detached house is still going to be tough.

I don't want to trade the best years of my life simply to say "I made it" when housing is an investment and not a place to live and enjoy life.

Instead, renting is easy and my life is highly enjoyable. The downside is, of course, relationships with my girlfriends end as you can't really take a relationship to any sort of serious level when you rent and cannot afford a detached home.

maybe that's because you're only dating soulless gold digging whores you find on grandville every weekend

Last girlfriend was a 49 year old Jewish milf

Current girlfriend is a very sweet 23 year old redhead who loves baseball and riding hipster bikes

Truth is, without having the ability to afford a detached home, I see no potential in taking a relationship any farther than "girlfriend" and a lot of men agree, if only subconsciously.

A huge part of why people in Vancouver are so promiscuous is because the natural progression of relationships has been hamstrung by the monumental task of earning enough to buy a house while enjoying a decent* lifestyle! Relationships can be seen as being based on the momentum and life-progression of both partners. If you can't build the momentum, like a trout jumping up each successive waterfall to spawn, you just end up banging chicks and partying constantly.




*this will vary between person

lol not the response i was expecting but if that's the way you look at it then thumbs up...

i wasn't implying initially that there was something wrong with it...i was just taking a stab at what might have been the issue

Easy, actually a lot of hedge funds and firms own condos and buildings in town. They can just cash in and lock in profits.

Shorting REITs is another way.

One fact that seems to escape most people writing about this is even it takes 50% off.. prices will still back to 6 years ago.. assuming a 12% growth pa. It will still out of price range for most folks.

The organisations that will hurt most are the pension funds and CPP.. they own a lot of properties in order to fund retirement payments.

What you mentioned is just straight up selling. :rukidding:

REITs is commercial real estate. And since they're publicly traded, I won't be surprised that there's an ETF that shorts them. But it's still apples to oranges.

Eer no not all REIT are commercial.. there are plenty of residential, carehomes etc. Cressy dev has their own REIT.

All shorting involves selling and making profit.

Hedge funds don't need ETF.. they are the ETF.

You know you're in a massive bubble when you see "mortgage helpers" in listings for $2+ million dollar homes. In most markets, a person purchasing a $2+ million dollar home is usually sitting in the 1% and doesn't need to rent their basement or "guest" house to help with the mortgage.

Saving for your down payment?
We'll boost it with an ultra-low interest loan.*
*Up to a maximum of $12,500
The Down Payment Helper Bundle* is for first-time home buyers who need a little extra help getting to their 5% minimum down payment faster. To qualify, you'll need to have saved at least half of your down payment. You'll also need to meet our personal loan borrowing criteria.

I hear that a lot of HK people who bought properties in macau are underwater currently.

It'll probably motivate them more to invest in Vancouver as it is "safe"

i predict it will.

US will raise rates in Sept... Canada usually would follow suit, but the Canadian economy may not be strong enough to withstand the same rate of rate increases as the US, resulting in relatively stronger USD, which is a benefit to the Cdn manufacturing economy (what's left of it).

i think we'll see 1.30 USD/CAD before too long, a 7bp increase on today

Earlier today I actually THREW OUT my bong.


Thinking about the possibility of the CND tanking and the bubble bursting actually has me motivated to work!!!


People laugh when I say this, buuuuuut... ***many*** people in Vancouver become apathetic because the idea of thriving here seems too monumental of a task, so people give up, become lazy, and self-medicate to ease their angst.


Edit: When the carrot is dangled low enough that some people can jump and reach it, more people attempt to jump, when the carrot is super fucking high up, a lot of people give up jumping.

Thats why so many people I know have completely given up on the idea of being (consumer, not mortgage) debt free. Once people hit a certain point they just say fuck it, I'll never be able to afford what I want, so I'll just keep going deeper and deeper until the only option is bankruptcy or a quick couple steps off of the side of the lions gate.

This. I am 22 and I find that a lot of other twenty-somethings I know are perfectly okay with living at home for the foreseeable future simply because they can't justify paying nearly $1000/mo. for rent while simultaneously saving up for a down payment on a home and be able to make the mortgage payments. Don't get me wrong, I think it's possible for one who has a decent full-time job to move out, but they'd be making huge sacrifices. Transit everywhere, ramen noodles 3x a week, rarely being able to go out (let alone travelling), etc., just makes things seem "not worth it". Ironically enough, one is forced to choose between being "independent" yet unable to do very much, or be "not independent" and do a lot more.

... obviously there may be a lack of work ethic involved, but considering the lack of higher-paying jobs in Vancouver as well as the ridiculously high entry price to buy a home, people my age are pretty much just giving up. The smarter ones, I find, are moving elsewhere. Welcome to the first stage of brain drain.

If you're a cute young girl, you have a lot more options...


A teaspoon of sugar | The Economist


So many hot chicks are complete whores now for old geeks with money.


My girlfriend isn't the hottest, but she is a good person and would rather work a blue collar job than suck and fuck some total loser for cash!

i cry thinking this is the reality....about to head to central and south america for a year and the USD is killing me