[03c0upe]

thinking of buying a condo downtown as an investment, i know no one has the answer but what is everyones opinion on what condos will be worth around 2010? Do you guys think the condos will drop in price or go up? Im looking for opinions especially from realtors

[tiger_handheld]

read on business bc that realestate sales were down 8% for Q1 - 2008.

[RayBot]

i've got one for sale downtown...its an 18th floor unit in Yaletown Park I. 656 Sqft 1bedroom and den.

http://mlsr.realtylink.org/mlsr_get/res_sale_result_detail.cfm?comID=&agentID=045793&searchtype=both&CID=1157971&TMPL=1&MLS=V696700

In all honesty, i don't think its the safest investment, a downtown condo. I just can't imagine that downtown is meant to be a high residential area. Although i don't think the real estate market is going to overall crash, but its going to dissipate one region at a time in areas that aren't really the best residential regions. Whistler went first....and downtown will see its turn.

The thing is, Tiger Handheld's post is true....but in ways, its misleading. If those statistics is generalizing the overall real estate market, and more than half of those properties that are sold are condos.....well that means there is a very good chance that value of single family housing and land could have gone up a good notch!

In other words, if you can afford a downtown condo, you may want to invest into buying a house...it can almost be assured that it may be the safer investment.

My 2 cents

[Realtor]

thinking of buying a condo downtown as an investment, i know no one has the answer but what is everyones opinion on what condos will be worth around 2010? Do you guys think the condos will drop in price or go up? Im looking for opinions especially from realtors


My personal outlook on the market is that it will continue to climb, although not at a rate that we have seen in previous years.

Downtown condo's usually hold their value the best in comparison to other areas, because dowtown is usually where a lot of people want to be and there is limited space down there. However, a house with land will usually hold it's value because land is even more scarce.

[miss_crayon]

My personal outlook on the market is that it will continue to climb, although not at a rate that we have seen in previous years.


so true. real estate will always hold value no matter the decrease in sales. however, many potential buyers still seem to believe the pricing will go down and that they'll "wait," when i really don't see developers lowering their prices.

anyways, i say the best place to invest is still in the downtown core. it's a lifestyle that many still want to live by so even if you decide to resell or rent out--there will definitely be a market for it.

[1.8tradoman]

so true. real estate will always hold value no matter the decrease in sales. however, many potential buyers still seem to believe the pricing will go down and that they'll "wait," when i really don't see developers lowering their prices.

anyways, i say the best place to invest is still in the downtown core. it's a lifestyle that many still want to live by so even if you decide to resell or rent out--there will definitely be a market for it.

hmm... REAL ESTATE WILL ALWAYS HOLD VALUE NO MATTER THE DECREASE IN SALES? wow talk about being insulated from THE REST OF THE WORLD. Most people will do a little research when buying a $100 digital camera but when it comes to a $300,000 condo, they come to revscene! Wow.

PS: "BEST PLACE ON EARTH" ?

[johny]

so true. real estate will always hold value no matter the decrease in sales.


prices in the US have dropped 100's of thousands for a house in the last couple years... the price drops will move to Canada soon as the US gets worse and Canada follows. I think most of Canada will drop, starting with Ontario as all their factories close and everyone is unemployed. but Vancouver will probably be the safest place in Canada and unfortunately might not drop. but I wouldn't be buying anywhere outside the GVRD in the next couple years.

[miss_crayon]

hmm... REAL ESTATE WILL ALWAYS HOLD VALUE NO MATTER THE DECREASE IN SALES? wow talk about being insulated from THE REST OF THE WORLD. Most people will do a little research when buying a $100 digital camera but when it comes to a $300,000 condo, they come to revscene! Wow.

PS: "BEST PLACE ON EARTH" ?


what i mean is, yeah the market is slowing down..but i don't see the value of (lets just say) my unit in the downtown core will decrease in terms of price just because of it. we're not in the middle of a crisis or anything.

everyone thought prices were gonna drop years ago but we've yet to see it happen.

and i'm not sure if you were directing the "research" line towards me or what not, but i firmly stand behind what i'm doing and saying since i have been exposed to this industry long enough. it might not sit well with everyone else, but just my opinion for the OP who was simply trying to grasp a better understanding/idea to the realtors/sales in the real estate market.

[Realtor]

There actually are a number of arguments for both sides of the coin.

Some say that the market will continue to increase due to the olympics, foreign investment from Asian markets and East Coaster's coming here, the amount of money the government is pumping into our economy building a better infrastructure in the GVRD, the fact that Vancouver is still one of the best places in the world to live and is still not too expensive in comparison to some other cities, our interest rates have been dropping again so it's cheaper to borrow money, etc etc etc.

For the other side of the coin, people say that the winter olympics is only a short lived event and that it can't sustain prices, our Canadian dollar is so high at this point in time that it costs a lot more for foreign people to buy here, the baby boomers will evenutally die off leading to more supply, etc etc etc.

I'm kinda tired now and I can't remember any more points, but yeah like I stated earlier, I think the market will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. As for 2011 and 2012 and afterwards, the market will most likely slow down or even dip a bit. But that will depend on many factors, so it's impossible to tell.

[1.8tradoman]

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=18e6dc31-6440-4bd8-8322-8a3375f5d7c3&k=83871

Just want you (and others who are thinking about buying) to do some research before making a major financial decision like buying a condo. There are some cracks forming in the hysterical idea that house prices in Vancouver will continue to rise forever. For those who weren't around in 1981, house prices collapsed 50% over a 18 month period in Vancouver, and I am not talking about crackville, chinatown, east-side properties! Hardest areas hit included WESTSIDE SFH. Obviously those were different times and history rarely repeats itself right? Just look how long and hard you saved up for that down payment and I'd hate to see people throw away their savings. For example, 20% drop in your $300k condo will cost you 60k. BUYER BEWARE!

PS: nothing against Agents but they make a living selling.

I do this for free...

[1.8tradoman]

Sorry I'm not trying to pick on you Miss Crayon! I think your cute!

[1.8tradoman]

thinking of buying a condo downtown as an investment, i know no one has the answer but what is everyones opinion on what condos will be worth around 2010? Do you guys think the condos will drop in price or go up? Im looking for opinions especially from realtors


I thought I would run some numbers with you for free! Firstly I want to apologize for all the random links but here's how it goes:

Lets look at a REVSCENE listing:

http://www.revscene.net/forums/showthread.php?t=525502

Asking $469,000 lots of extras, granite, blah, blah etc. Run this number thru the mortgage calculator at the MLS WEBSITE: Put in $20,000 deposit, 5.5% mortgage rate, 25 yr amortization and you get a total of $2740 a month in payments. Add condo fee: $243/month. Add property tax $90/month. Numbers taking directly from listing ad (check it yourself): http://www.mls.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=6817867. That's a grand total of $3000 a month (plus change).

Now lets have a look at what kind of revenue this property can generate!
Viola: http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/apa/656030354.html , and its on the 30st floor! Lots of extras too! marble anyone? Lots of similarities to the revscene listing but not exactly the same but pretty damn close for 5 minutes of cross referencing.

Rental income $1390... I'll let that number speak for itself.


So if your condo keeps appreciating double digits (1x%) year after year, you can ignore the $1600 shortfall a month(thats $19,000 a year). But what if there is a "slowdown" as mentioned by others on this thread? I will let you analyze those numbers for yourself. Just remember in 25 years you will have exactly what you paid for: A 25 year-old condo...


PS: since its your investment property, I haven't told you that you still have the taxman to deal with!

[Realtor]

1.8tradoman - you make good points, but I just wanted to add a few things.

The ad for the rental property is only 537 sq. ft vs 656 sq. ft. for the property for sale. I haven't seen either units and I don't know if there are any other factors affecting the value of each of these properties, but just based on sq. ft. alone, there should be a substantial difference in price.

As for the monthly difference, it will depend on how much you are going to put down as a down payment (the larger the down payment, the less of a monthly difference). Also, I'm pretty sure they dropped prime to 4.5% lately and people that want a mortgage should be able to get a mortgage around the 4 mark or better.

Another key thing to remember is that you don't "lose or gain" money till you sell. So yes if you sell it and the market has turned, then you will lose money, but if you hold onto it if there is a slowdown and you sell it when the market goes back up, then technically the slowdown has not affected you.

If this is a second property then yes you will have to pay capital gain tax on your property after you sell it, but that's only if you actually make money. As for capital gain, it's about half of whatever you make and is added to your personal income.

Basically, without going into every single detail and crunching out every single number, yes everyone should do their research before jumping into a big money situation such as buying a property. Just remember though, that you have to factor in many different things to see if it's a good time to invest for you or not.

P.S. some agents make a living by just selling, some actually try to do a good job and work for their clients best interests and are rewarded for doing so.

[1.8tradoman]

Great discussion here Realtor!

Here is another listing from craigslist that is closer to the Revscene listing in terms of sq. ft. http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/apa/631989512.html, looks like its 660 sq ft. and ASKING $1550 per month.

The amount of the down payment a person puts down could also be less! some mortgage brokers offer zero down on some developments ( difficult to find nowadays with tightening lending practices) so your monthly payments would be higher. And don't forget 40 year mortgages that allow you to borrow even more! So depending on the situation your monthly payments could even be higher for this revscene listing!

The mortgage rate that i quoted is a 5 year closed rate of 5.5% that I was approved for very recently, you can get a better rate of course but that would be a variable rate. The Bank of Canada did reduce its lending rate to other banks but those who have gone to the bank for a pre-approved mortgage know that banks have been tighten lending practices this year.

[1.8tradoman]

You made a point about holding the condo until the market goes back up. Hmm... so basically your saying that you can try to "time the market"? Well if right now we are in an up market why would you buy now rather than wait for the down market? The housing boom is over: http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080417.wcrea0417/BNStory/Business/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20080417.wcrea0417

And guess where this info came from? Canadian Real Estate Association.

"If this is a second property then yes you will have to pay capital gain tax on your property after you sell it, but that's only if you actually make money. As for capital gain, it's about half of whatever you make and is added to your personal income."

Isn't the point of buying an investment to make money? The numbers just don't make sense no matter how you tweak them...

[Realtor]

Thank you for the chance to banter back as well... :)

Yes you used to be able to do a zero down on certain properties, but like you say, it's very rare if there are even any that continue to do so. Yes with a 40 year mortgage, you can borrow more but the payments would be higher.

I'm pretty sure that you can get better than 5.5% for even a fixed rate, but it all depends on the situation, and yes banks have really tightened up due to all the screw ups in the states.

As for "timing the market" I'm not telling everyone to buy and hold till the market is right, I'm basically replying to your comment that implied that the market would be on a downturn for 25 years.
As for your article:

"Despite the softening market, home prices have continued to rise, although at a slower pace. The average price of a Canadian resale home rose by 5.5 per cent year-over-year in the first quarter to $327,620, the smallest increase since the fourth quarter of 2001 and half as big as last year's 11-per-cent rise."

So yes it's definitely not as hot this year, but things are still increasing and moving, albeit at a slower pace.

“There's a window of opportunity for the market to cool down and affordability to improve before the next rate tightening cycle, and if that happens … we shouldn't see a pullback in home prices,” Mr. Alexander said.

This quote states that they think that demand will not be as hot and that lower interest rates will help affordability - therefore even though there isn't as much demand, prices should not drop much (unless they have priced it wrong).

Yes the point of buying an investment is to make money, but your above comments just made it seem like the taxman would be out to get you and I just wanted to clarify things.

* On a side note, I'm not saying that it is a good time to invest or that it's not. I just wanted to give everyone information and also state that everyone's situation is different. *

[1.8tradoman]

"As for "timing the market" I'm not telling everyone to buy and hold till the market is right, I'm basically replying to your comment that implied that the market would be on a downturn for 25 years"

I was not implying that there will be a 25 year downturn. What I was trying to get at was that your 25 year old condo could become a depreciating asset. Check out MLS®: V697779. OUCH! ($45,000 assessment to be paid by the buyer). Just one possible outcome.

San Diego, San Franciso, Las Vegas, Miami, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg etc... 20% price declines with no end in sight. The question I pose to Realtor is Why (how) is Vancouver immune (different)? And please don't tell me its the 2 week party we are hosting in 2010.

[Realtor]

Actually every house or condo is a depreciating asset. Only the Land appreciates. The longer you own a house or condo, the older it gets, while land usually just becomes more scarce, and that's the main factor why real estate appreciates. (Unless of course there is a demand for certain old houses, such as character homes) As for V697779, it's a low-rise wood frame condo built in the 80's and 90's. Concrete buildings last longer, and there are certain standards in play since 2000. This does not mean that there won't be any more leaky condos, it just means that standards are a bit better now and there should be less. (Vancouver is comparable to a rain-forest and our climate takes a toll on structures.)

As for the states, I don't know enough about there market, but i'm guessing that their woes are due to many things, such as the "loose" lending practices that were occuring down there, the astronomical money they spend fighting wars, etc. etc. etc.

As for Canada, well Calgary and Edmonton rely a lot on the U.S. economy and if the U.S. isn't doing well, it has an affect on them. I don't know much about Winnipeg.

I never said that Vancouver is immune. In my above posts I stated that we should have slight increases in the near future, but around 2011 or 2012 it will probably remain level or drop slightly. I also stated reasons for both sides of the coin as to why people think the market will increase or decrease.

[justsomeguy604]

Talk about a bunch of total noobs.

There is plenty to read up for those interested in buying a condo.

As it stands currently, it is far cheaper to rent than buy and if the renter saves the difference between mortgage and rent costs. The renter will come out far ahead of the owner.

For those who don't believe prices can't fall, ask your parents about 1981/1982. If you need proof that history repeats itself, look south of the border.

Sure we don't have the same level of sub-prime exposure that the US had but we have a huge oversupply of condos especially in Vancouver.

Price fundamentals don't match ownership costs to rent ratios and affordability per earning power in Vancouver ranks in the top 5 worst world wide.

Crash? Who knows, but we've broken away from the fundamentals for over 4 years now, a pullback is going to happen, the longer the prices run away from reality, the harder the snap back.

I rent in Coal Harbour for about $2400 a month. This is my total monthly cost (includes all utilities).

So, if I wanted to buy right now, I would have to pay about $900k for the same unit.
If I were to take a 30 mortgage for the whole amount at 4.85% My monthly payments would be around $4700 a month plus utilities $50 a month strata $550 a month and property tax (average is about $300 a month) for a total monthly ownership cost of $5600 per month.

The $4700 of the mortgage is comprised of interest and principle. In the first 5 years, the owner has paid over $210,000 in interest while only contributing $75,000 to equity.

The owner has thrown away $210,000 in interest, $18,000 in tax and $33,000 in strata for a total of $261,000 in money thrown away. The same renter would have only spent
$144,000.

If the renter saved the difference between the mortgage $4700 and the rent of $2400, in 5 years that's savings of $138,000 in 5 years. If you rather, the renter is over $250,000 better off than the owner after 5 years.

Now, of course, there is capital appreciation and during this runup, yes, the owner would have realized an equity growth but buying now with the expectation of double digit appreciation is exactly what happened during the end of the dot com boom. People were buying in at the peak only to be burned while the smart people were leaving the market.

What I'm saying is, that if prices remain flat or only increase slightly, you're better off as a renter.

If you're going to bitch about the fact the mortgage is for the full amount, you'd make more money with a $900k GIC than you would in rent. It is this rent to price ratio that is out of wack and actually proves prices in Vancouver are far too high.

Like it or not, the numbers don't lie. Just like the stock market has bubbles, so does real estate. I actually feel really sorry for people who have recently purchased out of panic and fear.

An investor will tell you emotion is the worst thing to use when buying ANY investment. It makes people react in the opposite way that they should.

While nobody can predict the future. I'm glad I sold both my townhome and condo in Yaletown. I could have milked another year or maybe 2 for profits but smart people know market timing is tricky and you're better off to get out early than be caught too late.

[1.8tradoman]

VAN sun newspaper prints avg. march and april GVRD SFH prices guess what the price difference is? Negative 4%. Think condos are likely to hold up because of granite countertops?

[1.8tradoman]

i apologize for the late edit... i try to not to edit unless its necessary but i wanted to double check the numbers.

[Realtor]

* On a side note, I'm not saying that it is a good time to invest or that it's not. I just wanted to give everyone information and also state that everyone's situation is different. *

justsomeguy604 - you make very good points, but like I stated previously, everyone's situation is different and a person must factor in a lot of different things before investing.

Prices can defininitely fall - not only in 81-82, but in 90, 96, etc.

A lot of condo's are being built, and there may be an oversupply in certain areas, but prime areas will hold their value better (such as downtown, but i'm not saying it's immune.)

Vancouver is currently one of the most unaffordable cities in the world, but it's also one of the most desired places to be.

As for buying the condo you currently live in, I don't have enough information on your unit, but if your numbers are correct, it may not be a good time for you to buy, a different person buying a different property may be able to make money. Once again, it depends on a lot of different factors but it's not the same for everyone.


1.8tradoman, I'm not sure what article you are talking about, but here is an article from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver:

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,218 in April 2008, a decline of five per cent from the 3,387 sales recorded in April 2007, and a 3.8 per cent drop from the 3,345 sales in April 2006.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties increased 25.6 per cent to 7,010 in April 2008 compared to April 2007, when 5,580 new units were listed.

“Residential sales continue to be strong, but there is a lot more choice on the market today. This is good news for a market that has been defined by record-breaking activity for most of this decade,” said REBGV president, Dave Watt.

“Despite this seeming re-balance between sales and listings, it took, on average, six fewer days to sell a home in Greater Vancouver compared to the previous year, with a days on market average of 33 in April this year,” said Watt.

Sales of detached properties declined 7.8 per cent to 1,293 from the 1,403 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2007. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties rose 11 per cent from April 2007 to $771,321.

Sales of apartment properties in April 2008 declined 2.4 per cent to 1,317, compared to 1,350 sales in April 2007. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 9.6 per cent from April 2007 to $389,070.

Attached property sales in April 2008 are down 4.1 per cent to 608, compared with the 634 sales in April 2007. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 10.5 per cent between April
2007 and 2008 to $477,900.


What this article tells me is that this year more units are available and less units have sold since last year, but properties are still selling, and the benchmark price has increased.

[johny]

justsomeguy604 you bring up good points for short term money saving but what about long term. people need a place to live for their entire life, not just the next five.

basicly to live you have 3 options. rent for life. buy now. or rent for a while then buy.

are you going to rent untill the day you die? renting for the next 70 years will cost you more then buying today and paying for 30. ontop of that. if you rent and die your kids get nothing vrs getting millions.

rent now and buy later? if you buy in 5 years from now you'll still going to pay all interest you say the buyer will pay. all you're doing is prolonging it, you're not gaining or saving it. but you've now you've lost the $144k it cost you to rent the first 5 years. if prices stay the same. the renter loses not the buyer...

unless you plan to die at age 50 so you can stop paying rent.

[1.8tradoman]

justsomeguy604 you bring up good points for short term money saving but what about long term. people need a place to live for their entire life, not just the next five.

basicly to live you have 3 options. rent for life. buy now. or rent for a while then buy.

are you going to rent untill the day you die? renting for the next 70 years will cost you more then buying today and paying for 30. ontop of that. if you rent and die your kids get nothing vrs getting millions.

rent now and buy later? if you buy in 5 years from now you'll still going to pay all interest you say the buyer will pay. all you're doing is prolonging it, you're not gaining or saving it. but you've now you've lost the $144k it cost you to rent the first 5 years. if prices stay the same. the renter loses not the buyer...

unless you plan to die at age 50 so you can stop paying rent.

wow... never heard of opportunity cost? look it up. Also have you actually looked at an amortization chart? Guess what? At the end of 25 years on your 40 year mortgage, you still owe more than 50% of the original principal (i.e. you own half a house). If your looking for a number to use try the Benchmark Price that Realtor quoted ie. $771,321. And the kicker? you've paid over million dollars in interest after your mortgage is finished. Let's start there. After that we can talk about the rest of your post.

[1.8tradoman]

"What this article tells me is that this year more units are available and less units have sold since last year, but properties are still selling, and the benchmark price has increased."

Could you tell me how the REGBV calculates bench mark price?
Why didn't they tell you that the AVERAGE PRICE fell 4%?
Why didn't they tell you that inventory has hit over 16,000 units?

Oh by the way here's the rest of the REGBV stat package...

"The Real Estate industry is a key economic driver in British Columbia. In 2007, 38,050 homes changed hands in the Board's area generating $1.065 billion in spin-offs. Total dollar volume of residential sales set a new record at $22.25 billion and total dollar volume of all sales set a record at $22.77 billion. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing more than 9,500 REALTORS®. The Real Estate Board provides a variety of membership services, including the Multiple Listing Service®. For more information on real estate, statistics, and buying or selling a home, contact a local REALTOR® or visit www.realtylink.org."

hmm... bias anyone?

PS: Realtor, I'm serious about the bench mark price calculation...

[johny]

wow... never heard of opportunity cost? look it up. Also have you actually looked at an amortization chart? Guess what? At the end of 25 years on your 40 year mortgage, you still owe more than 50% of the original principal (i.e. you own half a house). If your looking for a number to use try the Benchmark Price that Realtor quoted ie. $771,321. And the kicker? you've paid over million dollars in interest after your mortgage is finished. Let's start there. After that we can talk about the rest of your post.


using the OP's numbers. for now we'll assume prices won't change, but of course they will $2400 / month rent all in. x 12 x 70 years = 2.01 million. take his buying costs. $5600 all in for 30 years = oddly enough. 2.01 mill. so you've paid the same. but the buyer has a 900k house and the renter has nothing. now factor in increaseing prices. the renter will have paid alot more then 2.01 as rent prices will increase. the buyer will not pay more, as cost is set the day he buys it. ignoring interest changes which might even help rather then not. and the buyer will be sitting on a house worth alot more then a million, after spending less money over his lifetime then a renter.

[Realtor]

1.8tradoman or anyone else I have an article on the benchmark price, but it's in pdf format and I don't know how to post it here. (it's huge)

I still don't know which article states that the average price fell 4% but I would love to be able to see the entire article. I also made contact with the REBGV and they cautioned me about that statistic because a few big sales can really affect this statistic and they said that they knew there was a 17 million sale last month as well as a few other big ones, so that can throw the average up last month, causing it to drop this month.

Inventory is higher (higher than previous years when nothing good was lasting too long on the market), but that doesn't mean that the market is crashing. Like I stated before, the market seems like it's still going up, but it's not as hot as it was in previous years.

I could be wrong, but it seems like you have some sort of bias and you are absolutely sure that the market is going to crash. The market is based on so many different factors and fluctuates constantly - how can you be so sure? Do you have godly powers or a crystal ball? I'm not saying that you are wrong or right, I just don't like how you think you are so right.


PS: Realtor, I'm serious about the bench mark price calculation...

Oh No, he's serious.... what am I supposed to do now? :(

[RayBot]

You know, this whole INVESTING in Real Estate is very superficial in my opinion.


Lots of people are talking about renting because the real estate market is going to crash soon....blah blah blah.



What about the concept of buying real estate to own real estate?

The only reason for me to justify renting till the day i retire is that I have no life whatsoever. And it doesn't take statistics and numbers to justify that I would rather buy a property as opposed to renting.


In 40 years when i retire, i expect to own my own property.
When i need money in the future, its easier to use the equity gained from my own property.
When i expect to downsize after my kids move out of the house, i will have a good amount of money leftover to travel around the world.
When I die, i will have something of significant monetary value that I can pass down to my kids or grandkids.



Can any of that be achieved by renting all your life? I didn't think so.

I think the most regretful thing to do is restrain from moving forward in real estate because you read a publication saying that the market is unstable. Fact of the matter is publications gets more readers with controversial news rather than good news, no matter what peice of article you read.

Very stupid....after penny pinching on such a strict criteria, i found my client a condo that fit what he needed, but it was a few thousand dollars over what he wanted to pay. He didn't want to go that high, he didn't get the property, and less than a year later, the market value is up 50G!!

A few months ago, hes on the move again to look for a property, and the exact same wage which he was making this year can't afford the same thing he was looking for last year. Now he says wait till the real estate market crashes. Oh the money he could have made.

Kind of another funny statistic to point out too....which is growing faster, job wages or real estate prices?

Just in case, wouldn't want to be on the shit end of the ramrod if real estate prices still increase

[goo3]

Sure we don't have the same level of sub-prime exposure that the US had but we have a huge oversupply of condos especially in Vancouver.



Oversupply of condos - We can all see a ton of condos have been going up the past 6-7 yrs, and there's also hard numbers you can get from the Real Estate boards, etc. But how do you know this is an oversupply?

I know if you want to buy a house, on avg, the amt of income needed for your mortgage is at 70% whereas for a condo it's closer to the normal 30%. Could some of this supply have been at the expense of SFH because that's what ppl could afford? Then if you add up SFH + townhouses + condos, will there still be an oversupply of housing?

How about investment condos replacing traditional rental apartments? This is something I've read about. No one's been building apartments because builders can make more money selling condos. But some ppl who buy the condos also rent them out so this has been picking up the slack for the lack of rental apartments. When talking about oversupply, how would you take that into account?

I'm not disagreeing with you. Since I don't own, I actually hope you're right ;) . I just want to see things from both sides. But I'm really interested in hearing why you think there is an oversupply.

[SlySi]

Talk about a bunch of total noobs.



I rent in Coal Harbour for about $2400 a month. This is my total monthly cost (includes all utilities).
.

Thanks for paying for my mortgage.
Greatly appreciated...

[RayBot]

See one of the reasons why i don't read these controversial statistics is because the facts they provide lack certain variables....So, real estate sales went down a good 4+%

But here's a variable.....

Between last year and this year, how many less 'Assignment of Contract' sales have their been??

This can actually be a very big statistic because every time you assign a contract, you have just doubled the dollar value and added to the Real Estate statistic. Many people don't buy assignment of contracts because of legal issues....thats a fact that doesn't require numbers.


Heres another factor....how many pre-sale buildings actually completed?

Yep...another issue. You can toss those numbers away and add them to the decrease of real estate sales too.

Heres another one....Of all real estate sales, how much did condo sales go up/down versus how much did single family housing go up/down?

Well, if single family housing is still climbing, then thats not sign of a crash. Total statistics are giving real estate sales as an overall whole, but yet its only condos that are decreasing in sales.

That could have easily been a good 5% of all real estate activity...maybee even more. But hey...as i said, controversial news sells more than good news.

Too much missing information.

[1.8tradoman]

This is the original post :

"thinking of buying a condo downtown as an investment, i know no one has the answer but what is everyones opinion on what condos will be worth around 2010? Do you guys think the condos will drop in price or go up?"

I think we all agree here that buying a CONDO for investments purposes is not a great idea right now. Condo's are cash-flow negative. Period.

Have a quick look at a few vancouver real estate blogs. I have yet to find a sound argument that suggests we will avoid a market correction (20%+) of all real estate in the GVRD, condo, townhome and SFH.

http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=73

http://vancouvercondo.info/

And have a look at this site if you like graphs and stats:

http://langley-financial-planning.blogspot.com/

Nobody can predict the market but you can do the research.

[1.8tradoman]

oh and here's a real estate agent who's decided to give an opinion about the state of the market.

http://paul-northvancouverhomes.blogspot.com/

[Realtor]

This is the original post :

"thinking of buying a condo downtown as an investment, i know no one has the answer but what is everyones opinion on what condos will be worth around 2010? Do you guys think the condos will drop in price or go up?"

I think we all agree here that buying a CONDO for investments purposes is not a great idea right now. Condo's are cash-flow negative. Period.

Have a quick look at a few vancouver real estate blogs. I have yet to find a sound argument that suggests we will avoid a market correction (20%+) of all real estate in the GVRD, condo, townhome and SFH.

http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=73

http://vancouvercondo.info/

And have a look at this site if you like graphs and stats:

http://langley-financial-planning.blogspot.com/

Nobody can predict the market but you can do the research.


Once again, the key thing here is to analyze the guys sitaution and then you can see if it's worth it for him to invest in the market or not. Let's say he decides to buy a condo and then flip it out by 2010. If prices only increase by 7% each year and he bought the place for $400,000, then he would make $57,960 in 2 years minus costs. The things he has to weigh in are what kind of costs to him there will be for investing and see if it's worth it for him to do so.

As for a negative cash flow property, MOST properties in Vancouver and any other city are negative cash flow properties. How many idiots out there are willing to pay more for rent than a mortgage?

There are plenty of opinions for both sides of the coin. I didn't take the time to go through all your links, but certain realtors have their opinions and they are entitled to them, but other realtors have different opinions. People should get ALL the information and then act accordingly.

You speak like you KNOW that the market will crash by 20% in the near future. It may or it may not. Some people even think that the market will continue to rise for the next 10 years. As for arguments, I stated my reasons for both sides of the coin in an above post. I also wish I could post pdf. files here, because I have an interesting article from the Vancouver Sun (April 26, 2008) about the myths of Real Estate and they don't feel the the market is coming down any time soon.

[1.8tradoman]

here's that article you are looking for:

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/story.html?id=71a98563-db49-4cff-ba72-63710f343804&k=5982

sorry about the long link... anyways take note of the readers comments. ouch.

This may be a bit juvenile but lets make a small wager, I'll bet you $100 by the end of the year, gvrd CONDO/APT bench mark prices (i'll even use the phantom numbers that the real estate board uses) will be down 20% from April 2008 CONDO/APT bench mark prices. I await your responses.

[Realtor]

That is the article, but my version has the charts and more details to it. As for the readers comments, everyone is entitled to their opinions, but think of it this way, usually only people that disagree strongly with an article are going to post. Most of the people that agree or see good points will not bother.

As for your bet, are you talking about the end of 2008? The market is usually the hottest in the spring summer and coolest in winter, and prices reflect that, so there may be a slight dip in the market by the end of the year due to seasonal factors which is very common. However, I highly doubt the benchmark price in April 2009 will be 20% lower than the benchmark price of April 2008.

On a side note, I'm not taking the bet because I personally don't care for it.

[1.8tradoman]

"As for a negative cash flow property, MOST properties in Vancouver and any other city are negative cash flow properties. How many idiots out there are willing to pay more for rent than a mortgage?"

"Once again, the key thing here is to analyze the guys sitaution and then you can see if it's worth it for him to invest in the market or not. Let's say he decides to buy a condo and then flip it out by 2010. If prices only increase by 7% each year and he bought the place for $400,000, then he would make $57,960 in 2 years minus costs. The things he has to weigh in are what kind of costs to him there will be for investing and see if it's worth it for him to do so."


So pretty much Realtor your saying buy a downtown condo, eventhough it is cash flow negative and hope that we have double digit appreciation year over year to cover the costs associated with the investment.

Lets go buy ten condos and make $579,600 in 2 years minus costs! Guess what happens if there is no appreciation? It goes both ways.

Realtor, Real estate bubbles around the world are crashing, Why is Vancouver different?

Look at this gem: http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2007/09/12/google_trends_v.html

"However, I highly doubt the benchmark price in April 2009 will be 20% lower than the benchmark price of April 2008."

Looks like you also seem to KNOW the market? Take my bet, April 2009 (condos) will be 20% lower than the benchmark price of April 2008! Doesn't even have to be $100. Loser has to post a pic of him/herself and his/her ride!?

[1.8tradoman]

link is down

[Realtor]

So pretty much Realtor your saying buy a downtown condo, eventhough it is cash flow negative and hope that we have double digit appreciation year over year to cover the costs associated with the investment.

Lets go buy ten condos and make $579,600 in 2 years minus costs! Guess what happens if there is no appreciation? It goes both ways.

Realtor, Real estate bubbles around the world are crashing, Why is Vancouver different?

Look at this gem: http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2007/09/12/google_trends_v.html

"However, I highly doubt the benchmark price in April 2009 will be 20% lower than the benchmark price of April 2008."

Looks like you also seem to KNOW the market? Take my bet, April 2009 (condos) will be 20% lower than the benchmark price of April 2008! Doesn't even have to be $100. Loser has to post a pic of him/herself and his/her ride!?

1. I never stated that we are going to have double digit appreciation year after year.
2. I merely gave a different scenario than the one that you "know" is going to happen, and I only used 6 or 7% increase in that scenario.
3. I gave my reasons for both sides of the coin.
4. Don't really care for your link.
5. I never stated that I know the market, I am just giving my opinion on what I "think" the market will be like.
6. Don't care for betting as no one can predict the market. I have clearly stated what my opinion will be and I have also stated that numerous factors will affect the market and it's impossible to "know."
7. I find arguing with you here is a waste of time so i'm done. If you think that you have won, good for you.

[SlySi]

1. I never stated that we are going to have double digit appreciation year after year.
2. I merely gave a different scenario than the one that you "know" is going to happen, and I only used 6 or 7% increase in that scenario.
3. I gave my reasons for both sides of the coin.
4. Don't really care for your link.
5. I never stated that I know the market, I am just giving my opinion on what I "think" the market will be like.
6. Don't care for betting as no one can predict the market. I have clearly stated what my opinion will be and I have also stated that numerous factors will affect the market and it's impossible to "know."
7. I find arguing with you here is a waste of time so i'm done. If you think that you have won, good for you.


Im actually surprised you would even take the effort to reply to someone like this?

[1.8tradoman]

Im actually surprised you would even take the effort to reply to someone like this?

I never intended to insult or offend anyone here, just wanted help answer the question that was posted on this thread. Its quite obvious real estate agents on this site will tell you to buy real estate since they depend on the commission. I just wanted to give another point of view ( although unpopular).

Vancouver is a boom bust town. Speculators will be the first to exit and hard working families will be left to hold the bag, don't be one of them.

Look at the inventories of the GVRD: http://vancouvercondo.info/

Simple supply and demand laws apply to Vancouver. As inventory continues to rise and sales slow, price will DECLINE, and thats not a PREDICTION!

[revin-Rx]

As a potential first time buyer i really want to believe what you're saying 1.8tradoman, but what i've seen since i've been looking in the market is contrary to what you've been saying. In order to give you an idea, let me give you an example. In metrotown, near Pattison skytrain station, there is a new pre-construction development called "The Jewel". I had been waiting on this development because it had what i was looking for: close to central park, close to transportation, decent sq footages, and concrete building. For this i had anticipated the price to be around maybe 350,000 w/ tax etc....i mean how much could a 1 bedroom in Burnaby possibly go for??? So get this, it's selling for 369,000 w/out tax! w/ tax it's nearly 392,00!!! I thought who.....WHO would pay nearly 400,000 for the worst 1 bedroom in the building, i'm sure units above this cost at least 5 G's to go up a floor. Anyways, i'll get to the point - last saturday was the first offering for sale........people were lining up in lawn chairs thursday night to buy!!! that's right, thursday night. So my question is this, if you can afford to spend 400 + G's on a one bedroom, why wouldn't you invest in an East side house, actual LAND instead of airspace (a condo)? How could this be a good investment? Why are people paying these prices, isn't that part of the problem?

[goo3]

you should have asked the lawnchair ppl that

[Realtor]

I never intended to insult or offend anyone here, just wanted help answer the question that was posted on this thread. Its quite obvious real estate agents on this site will tell you to buy real estate since they depend on the commission. I just wanted to give another point of view ( although unpopular).

Vancouver is a boom bust town. Speculators will be the first to exit and hard working families will be left to hold the bag, don't be one of them.

Look at the inventories of the GVRD: http://vancouvercondo.info/

Simple supply and demand laws apply to Vancouver. As inventory continues to rise and sales slow, price will DECLINE, and thats not a PREDICTION!

Your comment about realtors seems quite insulting and offensive to me.... Guess what, realtors can also tell people that the market is crashing and realtors can make money SELLING properties rather than helping people buy them.

Vancouver has it's ups and downs, but what makes you think that Vancouver is a boom bust town?

Your line about the supply and demand laws apply to anything......... but once again, you are making assumptions about the market..........

[RayBot]

As a potential first time buyer i really want to believe what you're saying 1.8tradoman, but what i've seen since i've been looking in the market is contrary to what you've been saying. In order to give you an idea, let me give you an example. In metrotown, near Pattison skytrain station, there is a new pre-construction development called "The Jewel". I had been waiting on this development because it had what i was looking for: close to central park, close to transportation, decent sq footages, and concrete building. For this i had anticipated the price to be around maybe 350,000 w/ tax etc....i mean how much could a 1 bedroom in Burnaby possibly go for??? So get this, it's selling for 369,000 w/out tax! w/ tax it's nearly 392,00!!! I thought who.....WHO would pay nearly 400,000 for the worst 1 bedroom in the building, i'm sure units above this cost at least 5 G's to go up a floor. Anyways, i'll get to the point - last saturday was the first offering for sale........people were lining up in lawn chairs thursday night to buy!!! that's right, thursday night. So my question is this, if you can afford to spend 400 + G's on a one bedroom, why wouldn't you invest in an East side house, actual LAND instead of airspace (a condo)? How could this be a good investment? Why are people paying these prices, isn't that part of the problem?


Exactly...land = way to go...said that in the second post.

Lex Luthor said it best:
" You can print money, manufacture diamonds, and people are a dime a dozen, but they'll always need land. It's the one thing they're not making anymore of. "

[revin-Rx]

you should have asked the lawnchair ppl that

I was actually thinking of that, but most of those people are not the owners, they are people the owners have paid to sit in the chairs for 2+ days.

[1.8tradoman]

"Your line about the supply and demand laws apply to anything......... but once again, you are making assumptions about the market.........."

That is exactly my point, supply and demand applies to real estate! What do you think is going to happen as the inventory ballons and sales decline? The stats are in plain view, you can get them from the real estate board yourself.

"Your comment about realtors seems quite insulting and offensive to me.... Guess what, realtors can also tell people that the market is crashing and realtors can make money SELLING properties rather than helping people buy them."

How did I offend you when you agree that you can make money by both sellling and buying real estate for people? Thats your job! your obviously going to tell me to buy and sell real estate instead of cars for instance, your not a car salesmen!

If the original poster had asked us if it was a good idea to SELL real estate, your going to tell him what? not sell?

Raybot: I somewhat agree with you about land and how you can't create more of it... but please have a look at this chart and tell me if they are creating more land in the cities on the graph because the housing prices seem to be DEPRECIATING. New York, San Diego, San Fransico, etc....

http://bp3.blogger.com/_rt16FZ_z1N8/SBd_GvBscwI/AAAAAAAAA9Y/WF0czNknTRs/s1600-h/case-shillerhpi_decline-from-peak_200802.bmp

I also thought that buying real estate was the ticket to early retirement but it just doesn't seem to be the case right now... on a personal note, I owned a SFH in East Van and put a second mortgage on it to buy a condo at the Fraserview. It was a good idea in 2001 but i would not recommend doing this today.

[1.8tradoman]

I was actually thinking of that, but most of those people are not the owners, they are people the owners have paid to sit in the chairs for 2+ days.

Some of those people in the line up are real estate agents, and also people who have been paid to make it look like there's alot of interest in that building. There will be lots of units available for sale in a week at that development. Unless you think paying $400,000 for a 700sqft condo in Burnaby makes sense than you should buy ten of them now and you can sell them 5 years from now and become a millionaire.

[1.8tradoman]

Sorry last post today... remember the big line up that stretched all the way to the king george highway at the INIFINITY Tower Development? Remember people camped out for a week? Do a little research and what do you find .....42 LISTINGS........!

How many units in that tower? 180?

Or better yet why not buy ten units and sell in 5 years and become a millionaire! (i couldn't help myself sorry)

[RayBot]

Raybot: I somewhat agree with you about land and how you can't create more of it... but please have a look at this chart and tell me if they are creating more land in the cities on the graph because the housing prices seem to be DEPRECIATING. New York, San Diego, San Fransico, etc....

http://bp3.blogger.com/_rt16FZ_z1N8/SBd_GvBscwI/AAAAAAAAA9Y/WF0czNknTRs/s1600-h/case-shillerhpi_decline-from-peak_200802.bmp

I also thought that buying real estate was the ticket to early retirement but it just doesn't seem to be the case right now... on a personal note, I owned a SFH in East Van and put a second mortgage on it to buy a condo at the Fraserview. It was a good idea in 2001 but i would not recommend doing this today.


See...again, way too much missing information. And thats american economics. Thats what happens when lenders become careless to lend anyone with a first and last name a mortgage. Me and my mortgage broker buddy were laughing at that the other night during coffee.

[1.8tradoman]

"Vancouver has it's ups and downs, but what makes you think that Vancouver is a boom bust town?"

Boom = ups bust= downs... these guys think so too:
Environmental and Land Management and Sauder’s Associate
Dean, Faculty and Research and Real Estate Foundation
of BC Professor in Real Estate Finance, and Director, UBC Centre
for Urban Economics and Real Estate.

oh and here's their research paper, don't believe me or realtor but at least read this article before buying your investment condo (buy ten and retire a millionaire in 6 years)! pay attention to page 16, DATA shows (not opinions) over 50% drop in prices in 1981-1982. I guess no one here was around in 1982.

http://www.sauder.ubc.ca/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Strategy_and_Business_Economi cs_SBE_&Template=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&ContentID=13934

[goo3]

agree with the article, but it's also from 2005. look at what's happened since.

unless somebody can determine whether there's a gross oversupply right now, they don't know what will happen in the next few yrs.. they're just guessing.

that said, the easy money's been made in condos - most of them are too expensive to have that much upside anymore

[Jermyzy]

I wish property would stop appreciating until the day I sell it, my damn property tax keeps increasing every year! FYI, my property assessment in 2006 was 580,000, in 2007 it was 675,000 and the bank just assessed it last month at 725,000.

I'm actually hoping market will crash, since I plan on living in my house for a long time, I'll save on property tax, and then I can hopefully purchase a rental apartment.

[RayBot]

I wish property would stop appreciating until the day I sell it, my damn property tax keeps increasing every year! FYI, my property assessment in 2006 was 580,000, in 2007 it was 675,000 and the bank just assessed it last month at 725,000.

I'm actually hoping market will crash, since I plan on living in my house for a long time, I'll save on property tax, and then I can hopefully purchase a rental apartment.


Thats actually a big misconception....


Just because the market crashes doesn't mean that your property tax will become lower.

[skylark]

i wish i live in yaletown seen the view there!! i was in aawh!

[blackura]

As a potential first time buyer i really want to believe what you're saying 1.8tradoman, but what i've seen since i've been looking in the market is contrary to what you've been saying. In order to give you an idea, let me give you an example. In metrotown, near Pattison skytrain station, there is a new pre-construction development called "The Jewel". I had been waiting on this development because it had what i was looking for: close to central park, close to transportation, decent sq footages, and concrete building. For this i had anticipated the price to be around maybe 350,000 w/ tax etc....i mean how much could a 1 bedroom in Burnaby possibly go for??? So get this, it's selling for 369,000 w/out tax! w/ tax it's nearly 392,00!!! I thought who.....WHO would pay nearly 400,000 for the worst 1 bedroom in the building, i'm sure units above this cost at least 5 G's to go up a floor. Anyways, i'll get to the point - last saturday was the first offering for sale........people were lining up in lawn chairs thursday night to buy!!! that's right, thursday night. So my question is this, if you can afford to spend 400 + G's on a one bedroom, why wouldn't you invest in an East side house, actual LAND instead of airspace (a condo)? How could this be a good investment? Why are people paying these prices, isn't that part of the problem?

is it a freehold or leasehold property??

[Jason00S2000]

You know, this whole INVESTING in Real Estate is very superficial in my opinion.


In 40 years when i retire, i expect to own my own property.


I don't know what I will be doing in 4 years, let alone 40!


I just want to live in a nice place now, get drunk, and impress bitches with the view

[1.8tradoman]

My personal outlook on the market is that it will continue to climb, although not at a rate that we have seen in previous years.

Downtown condo's usually hold their value the best in comparison to other areas, because dowtown is usually where a lot of people want to be and there is limited space down there. However, a house with land will usually hold it's value because land is even more scarce.

Would you like to change that outlook Realtor?


"A few months ago, hes on the move again to look for a property, and the exact same wage which he was making this year can't afford the same thing he was looking for last year. Now he says wait till the real estate market crashes. Oh the money he could have made."

Raybot: now your "client" can wait another year and save another 20%. Or do you think he should still buy today? I hope not...

[RayBot]

Pfft...I frankly don't care if hes looking to buy. His criteria is like searching for something thats imaginary. That guy missed his chance. I've got my priorities with people that have a lil bit more of a broader outlook. And no...i don't think he should buy today...mainly because i lost interest in assisting him.

[1.8tradoman]

thinking of buying a condo downtown as an investment, i know no one has the answer but what is everyones opinion on what condos will be worth around 2010? Do you guys think the condos will drop in price or go up? Im looking for opinions especially from realtors


Great thing about a forum like this is that you can get viewpoints that aren't from sources that have vested interests. Also great to compare people's predictions. I am sure that Realtor/Raybot/misscrayon... are great real estate agents but they are dead wrong on their predictions. Anyone who is thinking about buying real estate now needs to have their heads examined. And for those who read this thread 6 months ago and still bought, you can still get Realtor to sell your place today before its too late! He\she might even give you a discount on the commission (another topic)!

[1.8tradoman]

Let me quote the Realtors on this thread:

"My personal outlook on the market is that it will continue to climb, although not at a rate that we have seen in previous years. Downtown condo's usually hold their value the best in comparison to other areas, because dowtown is usually where a lot of people want to be and there is limited space down there. However, a house with land will usually hold it's value because land is even more scarce."

"so true. real estate will always hold value no matter the decrease in sales. however, many potential buyers still seem to believe the pricing will go down and that they'll "wait," when i really don't see developers lowering their prices. anyways, i say the best place to invest is still in the downtown core. it's a lifestyle that many still want to live by so even if you decide to resell or rent out--there will definitely be a market for it."

"Lots of people are talking about renting because the real estate market is going to crash soon....blah blah blah."

"The thing is, Tiger Handheld's post is true....but in ways, its misleading. If those statistics is generalizing the overall real estate market, and more than half of those properties that are sold are condos.....well that means there is a very good chance that value of single family housing and land could have gone up a good notch!

In other words, if you can afford a downtown condo, you may want to invest into buying a house...it can almost be assured that it may be the safer investment. "

And my all time favourite, nothing against you miss crayon but:

"what i mean is, yeah the market is slowing down..but i don't see the value of (lets just say) my unit in the downtown core will decrease in terms of price just because of it. we're not in the middle of a crisis or anything."

wow talk about having a crystal ball...

[r-b-x]

i don't get what you're saying. so the market has dipped recently, but it's still not time to buy since we're not yet at the bottom of the valley?

i though the realtors in this thread have been fairly even handed in their assessment of the future. they weren't sure of the future, staking a gut feeling that it may even rise.

i'm no expert. i'm just starting out. trying to get my feet wet in all this. but i'm of the opinion that real estate will always continue to rise. land especially, condos are a bit hazier to assess. small downturns like this are just that. take year over year increases in value over the long term, you will come out on top. trying to swoop in when it's on a downturn is like hitting a moving target. you can try to wait it out, but it might just keep going up.

you can just say screw it, hunker down, buy something, and start paying it off. or you can wait it out, keeping what you're doing (keep on renting) and hope the prices come down enough that you'll end up ahead.

i read this thread hoping to give me some insight on the market situation. my plan is to buy up a smallish condo for myself. then when i need something bigger, i'll buy it then, keeping the condo, renting it out until a good time to sell. could be short term, could be longer term. i figure, when you buy, whatever you put into it, you get back (as long as the market doesn't crash horrifically).

[ELoquent]

i read this thread hoping to give me some insight on the market situation. my plan is to buy up a smallish condo for myself. then when i need something bigger, i'll buy it then, keeping the condo, renting it out until a good time to sell. could be short term, could be longer term. i figure, when you buy, whatever you put into it, you get back (as long as the market doesn't crash horrifically).

It's important to remember that not all properties decrease in value in times like this. You have the right idea rbx, so long as it works within your framework and you can afford it. Be smart and you'll be fine. Remember also that the media grabs a hold of a hot topic and rolls with it...they love this stuff and it often gets inflated beyond reality. Reality being that people will continue to buy real estate because primary residences will always be required. As a realtor myself, sure, it's not great out there but deals can still be had . I just bought myself an investment property that made sense financially. When nobody else is looking there will always be an opportunity for the another person. Just be smart and good luck in your endeavor.

Rob

[1.8tradoman]

i read this thread hoping to give me some insight on the market situation. my plan is to buy up a smallish condo for myself. then when i need something bigger, i'll buy it then, keeping the condo, renting it out until a good time to sell. could be short term, could be longer term. i figure, when you buy, whatever you put into it, you get back (as long as the market doesn't crash horrifically).


Why would you buy now when you can have the same thing for 30-40% less in a year or two? Don't believe the real estate propoganda machine, that is telling you that this is a 'small' dip in the market and that anytime is a good time to buy. This is nonsense. There is a huge supply of condos out there and more inventory is being piled on each month. There are over 20,000 properties listed in the GVRD. Guess how many sales last month? 1364. I hope your starting to get the picture... oh another number you might be interested in is this: 9800 real estate agents in GVRD. hmmmm... divide that by 1364 sales in october 2008, that gets you 0.139 sales a month! Since one sale of a house usually requires two agents (the seller and buyer's agent) that means these two agents have to share 0.139 sales. I hope your starting get the picture...

please feel free to inform me if my numbers are incorrect and discuss...

[1.8tradoman]

For every percent that real estate prices rise I will pay any real estate agent on this board $50, for every percent that real estate prices fall they will have to pay me $10. Time frame? Starting today to december 2010. I am giving you a great time frame because when the winter games finally come to vancouver the whole world will want to buy a condo with marble countertops! ? I'm giving you serious odds here, anyone want to take it? Just PM me.

[outlaw44]

i was working in surrey on the king george tower got shut down and they have no investors and what wsa this i heard olympic sqaure needs 120 million to finish there stupid small ass apartment high rise buy to live not to double up

[1.8tradoman]

For every percent that real estate prices rise I will pay any real estate agent on this board $50, for every percent that real estate prices fall they will have to pay me $10. Time frame? Starting today to december 2010. I am giving you a great time frame because when the winter games finally come to vancouver the whole world will want to buy a condo with marble countertops! ? I'm giving you serious odds here, anyone want to take it? Just PM me.


no takers? ok i'll pay $100 for every percentage that vancouver real estate prices rise to any real estate agent on this board, and they pay me $10 for every percentage drop. Same time frame. pls PM me anytime.

[1.8tradoman]

no takers? ok i'll pay $100 for every percentage that vancouver real estate prices rise to any real estate agent on this board, and they pay me $10 for every percentage drop. Same time frame. pls PM me anytime.

I will even donate my winnings to the charity of your choice!

[Roach]

I'm going to have to side with 1.8tradoman on this one.

My father has been a realtor since 1981. I've seen him go from being busy as heck raking in the cash to no income for lengthy periods. The market is cyclical. He can tell you that. Fortunately, he had the resources to buy properties on his own and supplement his own income losses and maximize his gains during the booms. He's since retired, however, he has commented many times over the past three years at the number of armchair real-estate investors and the burgeoning number of realtors popping up. I've heeded his advice and waited out this recent boom. It's tough living at home, but as a financial decision my dad wouldn't let me buy yet. He still won't.

It's sad to hear so many people prop up their hopes on 2010. Unfortunately, the city will be busy for a month. Tourists are not going to all of a sudden buy up every property in the city two weeks before the games begin. The ones that want to, have already done so. After the games are gone, who is going to occupy all these newly developed properties? For anyone that references 2010, I always recommend researching other Olympic games, such as Salt Lake City or Atlanta to get an idea of what kind of impact hosting an Olympic games have on a city. It's not the utopian monster profit dream many people seem to hold.

Unfortunately, there are going to be many people left with their pants around their ankles as the banks bend them over a table. More alarming is the potential for a deep recession or even a depression should the US automakers close shop. Property prices will take a sharp dive if such occurs imo.

Kev

[RayBot]

Seriously...are you trying to prove something?

The discussion was a good set of valid points back and forth and both sides of the table, where your arguments have been a little bit more visibly concrete.

It seems now that your arguments are just turning into mere arrogance.

[CivicBlues]

LOL you can sense the desperation on the part of the realtors on this board. Cocky mother fuckers a year ago - not so much now eh?...10,000 realtors in Vancouver? you mean Vancouver proper? sounds like everyone in the North Shore and their grandmother is one. You guys are one step below Used Car Salesmen - At least with them they don't try and fake an illusion of anything more than you buying a depreciating asset. :agree:

[1.8tradoman]

Seriously...are you trying to prove something?

The discussion was a good set of valid points back and forth and both sides of the table, where your arguments have been a little bit more visibly concrete.

It seems now that your arguments are just turning into mere arrogance.

I may appear to be arrogant in my previous posts but my only agenda has been to hopefully convince people on this board who have been thinking about buying real estate, especially condos, to look beyond the advice given on this board from real estate agents. If I go to a motorcycle shop and ask for an opinion, there's no way in hell the sales guy is going to tell me to turn around and buy a car instead. Worst case scenerio for me is to buy that $15000 GSX-R 1000 and drive it into my garage. The consequences for making an uninformed decision on a $500,000 condo could be disastrous. Agent makes his/her commission and your left to holding the bag.

There has yet to be a valid point on this thread indicating that buying a condo today (or since this thread was started) is a good idea. Please show me one.

How many presales have you personally bought Raybot? I am just curious because I know a few who have 2 or 3 that will be completed within the next year and I am recommending that they walk away from their deposits. They got caught in the tide and its going the wrong way.

[RayBot]

I haven't bought a single presale because i have no need for any....and i personally know where the trend is going...especially downtown. Thats why, when i had my one and only listing downtown, i couldn't wait till the listing expired for many, many ridiculous reasons.

However...the realtors here still have an opinion on the market, which already has been stated which are opposing arguements to your very own. At the same time, none of them disagreed with your statements either (after a quick skim).

And its like any of those realtors are assisting the guy with his purchase, so what do they have to gain really?? So why would they state an opinon that they didn't personally beleive in??

I know a lot of realtors that are there to take advantage of the market ride, and from experience, i know who NOT to deal with. But i am personally in it for the long haul. Meaning...my job description is to aid people to get into homes to a representation standpoint, and help people get out of their homes for whatever reason, whether its upsizing, downsizing, court-ordered, or liquifying an investment. Not to maximize the ROI of an investor.

Other people get paid to analyze future market trends, economics, etc...and they are paid to be right. Our opinions about the future, as realtors, aren't worth 2 cents....because thats not our job. But it doesn't mean our opinions are invaluable because it justifies a sale.

[VR6GTI]

How many presales have you personally bought Raybot? I am just curious because I know a few who have 2 or 3 that will be completed within the next year and I am recommending that they walk away from their deposits. They got caught in the tide and its going the wrong way.So your saying if you put down 60,000 a year ago on a place you should just walk away from that 60 :confused:
I have been following the market alittle bit and i know prices have dropped down alot from 40-80000 depending on area and house/condo. But if you put down 60 and it drops 40-50 now and you plan to live in it for 3-10 years. The market will come back, not to the point it once was but it will come back.

[Z3guy]

remember.....value is in the dirt....a pie in the sky (condo) pretty much depreciates every year, especially when their is more supply than demand + you have monthly condo fees.....Let's do an example;

Downtown Vancouver Condo
Cost: $300,000 for a 600 sqft 1 bedroom ($500 per sq ft)
Downpayment: 25% or $75,000
Monthly Mrgt: $225,000 at 6% for 25yrs = $1600
Monthly Condo Fee = $200 (assume no swimming pool)
Monthly Taxes = $100
Total Monthly Commitment = $1900

I think the most you can rent a decent 1 bedroom downtown is for $1500 a month. Net, net you would have to kick in additional $400 a month.

With the state of the economy, I would float low ball offers all over the place....it is a buyers market..what do you got to lose? I would also target condos that have been owned by the same owner for at last 3 years......the reason why?...if they bought at least 3yrs ago, you know they made at least $100k+ in profit...hence they would be more willing to drop their price Vs someone who bought 1 year ago. However, I think if you want to invest in Real Estate, I would suggest looking at a Vancouver special style house with 3 suites.....at least you own the dirt....my two cents.

[JeffK]

So your saying if you put down 60,000 a year ago on a place you should just walk away from that 60 :confused:
I have been following the market alittle bit and i know prices have dropped down alot from 40-80000 depending on area and house/condo. But if you put down 60 and it drops 40-50 now and you plan to live in it for 3-10 years. The market will come back, not to the point it once was but it will come back.

Niether is a good option... those friends are fucked :)

look at it this way...

bob bought 2 presales with the plan of flipping them, pocketing a heafty profit, just like people have been doing for 2-3 years now.

we'll say both condos were the same price.

Purchase Price: 400,000
Presale deposit: 30,000

Now, 2 years later no one has bought Bob's assignment, and the projects are going to complete. Bob has 2 choices:

1) Take ownership and rent it out or whatever. The problem with this, is that the banks are about to bend poor Bob over...

Bob's contract price is for 400,000 less his deposit... so he owes the developer 370,000

The problem is the condo is now only worth 300,000. The bank says, sure Bob, we'll give you a mortgage, as long as you pony up another 70,000k.

Bob says 'wtf?!'

2) Bob says no way, screw this, i'm out... those bastards can keep my 30k...

Problem here is Bob signed a contract... The developer expects his money and if they want, they can sue bob's ass.

Either way, Bob's fucked.

------------

of course i'm making figures up, but you get hte idea... all these folks that bought presales hoping to flip for a quick buck can be in serious trouble if they havn't sold already.

they may be stuck with the property, and forced to complete on it. Then because the unit isn't worth as much anymore, they have to come up with even more cash for the bank to even look at them.

its not going to be pretty!!

[1.8tradoman]

wait till the november rebgv stats come out... condo speculators and flippers should be feeling a little uneasy right now. I am in Buenos Aires right now and guess what a 900 sq ft downtown condo will cost you? less than 100,000 US... just one example of how out of touch vancouver condos prices are...

[RayBot]

for one thing...if people are not willing to pay 100k US for a 900sqft condo in Buenos Aires, but people are willing to pay 400k for that in Downtown Vancouver....


that doesn't show an example of how out of touch vancouver condo prices are....its an example of how a condo is not worth 100k in Buenos Aires.

[1.8tradoman]

for one thing...if people are not willing to pay 100k US for a 900sqft condo in Buenos Aires, but people are willing to pay 400k for that in Downtown Vancouver....


that doesn't show an example of how out of touch vancouver condo prices are....its an example of how a condo is not worth 100k in Buenos Aires.

I don't get it, what are you trying to say? please explain...

[RayBot]

Its a matter of all the factors that was already brought up in this topic....

Even if the market in vancouver for condos drop lets say even 30% so that a condo that was 400k becomes worth 260k, or if it increases 100% so its worth 800k...it has nothing to do with how 'out of touch' Vancouver's real estate prices are.

Its all been mentioned:
supply vs. demand
economic perception
Local/US/foreign dollar value
desirable location
quality and cost of living

It doesn't make a difference what city in the WORLD you're in. If you put a dollar figure on each of those factors...thats what real estate will be worth in that area.
Considering that you were the one that brought up most of those points....i thought you'd probably be the first to understand.

[1.8tradoman]

Its a matter of all the factors that was already brought up in this topic....

Even if the market in vancouver for condos drop lets say even 30% so that a condo that was 400k becomes worth 260k, or if it increases 100% so its worth 800k...it has nothing to do with how 'out of touch' Vancouver's real estate prices are.

Its all been mentioned:
supply vs. demand
economic perception
Local/US/foreign dollar value
desirable location
quality and cost of living

It doesn't make a difference what city in the WORLD you're in. If you put a dollar figure on each of those factors...thats what real estate will be worth in that area.
Considering that you were the one that brought up most of those points....i thought you'd probably be the first to understand.


So what your telling me is that Vancouver condo prices are not out of touch based on measurable metrics that you have just listed: supply and demand, economic demand, income levels, etc. ?

[RayBot]

How else would a 600 sqft condo in downtown sell for 380k last year...and still sell??? Its not a price tag they put on a clearance item for kicks. People with 380k to blow on a small condo aren't all stupid.

Frankly, i enjoy living in the Greater Vancouver region for many, many reasons....so when i bought my apartment, it had nothing to do with how much i can make in 3 years. No...it had to do with the notion of me enjoying my lifestyle in vancouver for a long term.

Theres a lot of nice cities all over the world....but real estate prices are what they are in every single city in world. Who cares if a brand new apartment in the 'Paris of South America' is less than 100k?? If it was more, people wouldn't buy it, or the larger demographic of buyers can't afford it. And ultimately...the question is, do they want to live there? Obviously....if there were a lot more yes's than no's, real estate prices wouldn't be as attractive as you stated.

On top of the economy, cost of living, supply and demand, and foreign dollar value...'Desirable location' isn't necessarily a measurable metric considering its mostly subjective....but it does drive business in regards to real estate.

[1.8tradoman]

How else would a 600 sqft condo in downtown sell for 380k last year...and still sell??? Its not a price tag they put on a clearance item for kicks. People with 380k to blow on a small condo aren't all stupid.

Frankly, i enjoy living in the Greater Vancouver region for many, many reasons....so when i bought my apartment, it had nothing to do with how much i can make in 3 years. No...it had to do with the notion of me enjoying my lifestyle in vancouver for a long term.

Theres a lot of nice cities all over the world....but real estate prices are what they are in every single city in world. Who cares if a brand new apartment in the 'Paris of South America' is less than 100k?? If it was more, people wouldn't buy it, or the larger demographic of buyers can't afford it. And ultimately...the question is, do they want to live there? Obviously....if there were a lot more yes's than no's, real estate prices wouldn't be as attractive as you stated.

On top of the economy, cost of living, supply and demand, and foreign dollar value...'Desirable location' isn't necessarily a measurable metric considering its mostly subjective....but it does drive business in regards to real estate.

Actually the people that bought that $380,000 condo are stupid. November stats are out and they lost another 10% on their "property", anotherwords they just threw away their 10% deposit they put down or $38,000. If they had bought in april 2008 when this thread started they will be down 18% from the peak. So i guess if you like throwing money away keep buying those condos.

Now stupid might be a strong word, more like uneducated or MISINFORMED. Making the biggest financial decision of their lives and they have to rely mostly from the real estate agent. That's really shameful in my opinion. These guys have no incentive to tell you the consequences of a downturn. Just look at the tone of most of the comments from real estate agents on this thread. They will tell you to buy when the real estate bubble in this city is CLEARLY popping around them.

[1.8tradoman]

900 sales for the month of november... divide that by 9000 real estate agents... divide that by 2 (commission is shared between buyer and sellers agent)... smell the desperation yet?

Raybot, I think you are paid to ignore the bad news and focus on the good, I am sure that your a great guy and a good agent, i have nothing against you but there is no measurable metric that SUPPORTS the real estate prices in vancouver, especially condos.

The stats speak for themselves, prices are crashing because they are overvalued, PERIOD.

Is it a good idea to buy a condo right now Raybot? yes or no.

[RayBot]

"I know a lot of realtors that are there to take advantage of the market ride, and from experience, i know who NOT to deal with. But i am personally in it for the long haul. Meaning...my job description is to aid people to get into homes to a representation standpoint, and help people get out of their homes for whatever reason, whether its upsizing, downsizing, court-ordered, or liquifying an investment. Not to maximize the ROI of an investor."

This is what i posted in post #72. So why would i care if 900 sales between 9000 agents is supposed to affect me? Secondly, after stating this again, why would i care if property values have dropped another 10%? And lastly, if you haven't noticed by my signature, i run 1 of 2 condo sites...not because i think condos are 'thing' in real estate....its because condos aren't the easiest peices of real estate to work with, and i find myself working with condos really well.

Is it a good time to buy??
That depends:
are you sick of renting?
are you happy with the prices and mortgage payments that will support your purchase?
Is this the area you want to be living in?

Is it a good time to sell?
That depends...
This is the market value of your home today...is this what you are looking at?

If yes go around to everything....then its a good time to both buy and sell!!
These are the clients i deal on an everyday basis, not "how much do u think my property is worth in 3 years."

As much as i choose not to deal with investors...i can almost assume correctly about this about investors that have money:
Investors aren't all stupid, investors definitely know the definition of 'risk,' investors do research before they dump their money....and i am 100% sure that investors will look beyond the advice of a real estate salesman.

Before you responded, i was about to ask you, "well, can you give and objective point of view why downtown condos sold what they were in 2006?"

But it seemed that you jumped the gun answered the question before i asked it.

But all you were able to answer was that buyers are stupid, uneducated and misinformed because real estate agents are shallow??

Like...c'mon...You seemed to be the smart person in this thread, with the crystal ball, the stats on the computer and the bets with no takers. I was a lil disappointed to read something like that...i thought i would read something with a lil bit of theory mixed with intelligence, not banter.

Boy, i love revscene!!!

[1.8tradoman]

"why would i care if property values have dropped another 10%? And lastly, if you haven't noticed by my signature, i run 1 of 2 condo sites"

Your right, why would the real estate agent care if condo prices have dropped 18% since April 2008. You don't have to because you have your commission and now your client is left holding the bag. You know who does care? The poor guy that got misinformation and is now watching his asset depreciate each month.

Its been beaten to death now but "caveat emptor" really does mean what it states. Wiki it and you'll find that it relates quite well to the history of leaky condos that are built in Vancouver.

Leaky condos: a wholenother thread.

[RayBot]

You know who does care? The poor guy that got misinformation and is now watching his asset depreciate each month.

Again with the banter. Now, you're going to find yourself going around in circles, because once, again I will be quoting myself AGAIN in this thread....amusingly, one after the other....



my job description is to aid people to get into homes to a representation standpoint, and help people get out of their homes for whatever reason, whether its upsizing, downsizing, court-ordered, or liquifying an investment. Not to maximize the ROI of an investor.

Is it a good time to buy??
That depends:
are you sick of renting?
are you happy with the prices and mortgage payments that will support your purchase?
Is this the area you want to be living in?

As much as i choose not to deal with investors...i can almost assume correctly about this in regards to investors that have money:
Investors aren't all stupid, investors definitely know the definition of 'risk,' investors do research before they dump their money....and i am 100% sure that investors will look beyond the advice of a real estate salesman.



So bonus for people that find an increase in their property after they bought it. But the information that i provide for my clients (and i am sure a good portion of realtors here on rs.net do it too) is essential for the purchase of their property....not the return. Thats the definition of a representation standpoint.

Actually, that was a statement i made earlier, just reworded....but i was too lazy to quote myself again.

[civicyvr]

Good civil and valid discussion here. I am sure both 1.8 and Ray are good bros.

I've been paying rent while waiting to buy an affordable condo with no avail.

I do hope that every mofo who tried to make a quick buck instead of buying to live and artificially inflate the prices get burned hard because they freeking deserve it! :mad:

[VR6GTI]

Your right, why would the real estate agent care if condo prices have dropped 18% since April 2008. You don't have to because you have your commission and now your client is left holding the bag. You know who does care? The poor guy that got misinformation and is now watching his asset depreciate each month.

I'm not really sure why they would. You don't hear car salesman tell their customer "hey BTW I'm just being honest here by telling you that when you drive this car off the lot it will depreciate 5-10,000. Have a nice day"

[Noir]

Good civil and valid discussion here. I am sure both 1.8 and Ray are good bros.

I've been paying rent while waiting to buy an affordable condo with no avail.

I do hope that every mofo who tried to make a quick buck instead of buying to live and artificially inflate the prices get burned hard because they freeking deserve it! :mad:

Despite what other people say, I agree with 1.8tradoman. The market will eventually correct itself so you may just get your wish eventually. Ppl like the OP who think realty as an investment will be forced to increase rent prices due to increasing costs of realty ownership to turn a profit margin.

Unfortunately, push the bar far enough and you will be putting a certain commodity out of the hands of your standard middle class people which are the legs the local economy stands on. The trend of unreasonable prices will have to discontinue as if the prices remain high or go higher, then the only people able to sustain living in this city will be that of the higher class which only makes up a small fraction of the community. Which means, its not enough to sustain the local economy and market will have to correct itself.

[1.8tradoman]

Despite what other people say, I agree with 1.8tradoman. The market will eventually correct itself so you may just get your wish eventually. Ppl like the OP who think realty as an investment will be forced to increase rent prices due to increasing costs of realty ownership to turn a profit margin.

Unfortunately, push the bar far enough and you will be putting a certain commodity out of the hands of your standard middle class people which are the legs the local economy stands on. The trend of unreasonable prices will have to discontinue as if the prices remain high or go higher, then the only people able to sustain living in this city will be that of the higher class which only makes up a small fraction of the community. Which means, its not enough to sustain the local economy and market will have to correct itself.

It´s not my wish to see real estate correct, I was just commenting on the decision to buy a condo in vancouver during a time of , global recession, political instability, credit contraction, asset deflation, and more specifically real estate values around the world plummeting. This could possibly be the WORST time ever to buy a space in a concrete beehive based on every measurable "metric" that has been discussed so far. Not to harp on Raybot but he continues to suggest that YES it is a good time to buy based on these factors: quote:

Is it a good time to buy??
That depends:
are you sick of renting?
are you happy with the prices and mortgage payments that will support your purchase?
Is this the area you want to be living in?

Is it a good time to sell?
That depends...
This is the market value of your home today...is this what you are looking at?

If yes go around to everything....then its a good time to both buy and sell!!
These are the clients i deal on an everyday basis, not "how much do u think my property is worth in 3 years."

I need a whole lot more space to respond to this... TBC

[1.8tradoman]

So lets look at the factors as listed by RAybot:
he says:
Sick of renting? ok this one has been beat to death, right now you can rent a beautiful condo with granite counter tops for 50% - 60% of what it would cost you to finance one with 10% down and over 35 year amortization. For evidence just look at rental prices on craigslist and cross reference with units on the MLS. I´ve already provided an example in this thread. Every month you can put away your money that you saved in rent and wait. What about equity? Well if you bought in April 2008 (when Realtor would have bought), you´ve not only lost part your downpayment but you may owe more to the bank than the condo is worth today. (Sure you can buy it with 100% cash but what kinda of buyer are we talking about here? Average Vancouverite who buys to live in, not your specuvestor, flipper hoping to sell his unit to the next sucker.)

Are you HAPPY with the prices and mortgage payments that will SUPPORT your purchase?
They got rid of 40 year mortgages? Why? BECAUSE banks no longer have those types of mortgages insured (by CMHC) because of the significant risk involved with loaning money to people who cannot AFFORD to buy the homes that they wish to have BASED on their INCOME. They offered these types of mortgages because the normal person could not afford a standard 25 year mortgage, so to decrease the monthly payments they introduced longer (40 year) mortgages. You can google what percentage of new mortgagees took on the 40 year term last year (kinda scary). How can i be HAPPY paying a monthly mortgage payment that is almost double of what it would cost me to rent? Finally there is NO SUPPORT for that purchase! Give me an example where an average guy making a median average income can hope to buy a median average home in vancouver! Don´t tell me that everyone has parents who can lend you a large downpayment and will cosign that mortgage with you. Thats not the type of scenerio that I am referring to (although i am starting to wonder how much that happens here).

Is this the area you want to be living in? Lets infer that he is talking about vancouver.
My guess is that Raybot is talking about wanting to live in the "best place on Earth" mantra that every real estate salesman speaks about. "Toyota makes the best cars on Earth" thats what the car salesman told me too. I agree that vancouver is a wonderful place to live but what is the premium to live here? The market will tell us that in short order.

[1.8tradoman]

"If yes go around to everything....then its a good time to both buy and sell!!
These are the clients i deal on an everyday basis, not "how much do u think my property is worth in 3 years."

Your clients AREN´T interested in what their property in worth in 3 years? If this is true and I think that your telling us the truth than your clients are unimaginably naive and I hope they continue to buy as many condos as financially possible.
HOW can someone dropping minimum $400,000 NOT be interested in the future asset values of his purchase. This is one of the reasons why vancouver has formed a real estate bubble! (Perhaps the biggest bubble in North America!): Raybots clients buying real estate without regard for market fundamentals, global financial crisis, supply and demand, and future conditions.

on a side note, i am sitting in a (rosario) hostel using their computer, waiting to get on the bus back to Buenos Aires. It cost me about $10 a night. It ain´t no shangri la (which wont be built by the way) but it was a damn good deal.

[1.8tradoman]

I'm not really sure why they would. You don't hear car salesman tell their customer "hey BTW I'm just being honest here by telling you that when you drive this car off the lot it will depreciate 5-10,000. Have a nice day"

What you DO hear real estate saleman say is "hey don´t worry your new purchase will appreciate double digit every month!" That´s my beef.

[Z3guy]

What you DO hear real estate saleman say is "hey don´t worry your new purchase will appreciate double digit every month!" That´s my beef.

1.8tradoman, I have been reading the banter between yourself and Raybot, I have to agree with you man....your market insights are really good for 1st time home buyers or real estate speculators. I am in packaged good sales, however nothing drives me more crazy than Real Estate Agents telling there customers your exact quote.

imo, the real estate profession is a protected bogus industry. Why should agents makes 7% on the first 100K and 2.5% on the rest? What do they really do to deserve such high commission rates? Nowadays, evenone just goes on MLS.com to find property. The agent just makes phone calls with the other agent.

I will using 1% realty when I sell my house.

I am sure Realtors will have a difference of opinion.

I don't real see much difference between Realtors and boiler room stock brokers...."this stock is going to the moon"

[VR6GTI]

What you DO hear real estate saleman say is "hey don´t worry your new purchase will appreciate double digit every month!" That´s my beef.
But it was true a year ago :) If they are saying that now well then i can see your point :)

[RayBot]

What you DO hear real estate saleman say is "hey don´t worry your new purchase will appreciate double digit every month!" That´s my beef.


Your perception of Real Estate agents in general is such a stereotype. As for a very good portion that its true...theres some agents that enjoy 'what we're supposed to do.'

Today's technology has tested the careers of real estate agents to see if the internet can do everything is required in real estate. But after seeing whats required and what the internet lacks, it seems there is a need of real estate representation, whether its to represent a buyer or a seller. After 15 years of internet development, it could have been certain that all jobs in this industry would have went to zero....but its not. Z3guy said that he would be using 1% realty....fact of the matter is that he'll need professional representation for a realtor. And to tell you the truth, i am PRAYING that the internet doesn't make us extinct.

Im not a medallion agent with 3 assistants that does 40 sales a year....i'm an agent that works one-on-one with my clients from the beginning to end and does only 15 sales a year....if that. And i don't see myself working with 3 assistants, because i enjoy what i do, i do care about the integrity of my personal career as well as my personal reputation within the industry.

And comments about clients being 'unimaginably naive?' You think that everything in real estate has to revolve around profit, where in my experience, it had little to do with it. In 2008, this was the clients that i helped: a person who was looking to buy a condo for his parents so they can retire here in Vancouver, a person that needed to sell his townhouse before the bank foreclosed on their property, a family with a growing child that needed to relocate due to strata bylaws and other strata concerns,....as well as many others with scenarios like this. So really....them wondering what their property would be worth in 3 years is not their primary concern.


As i said earlier....nobody is arguing with you in regards to the direction of the real estate market. If all you wanted was a pat on the back...there you go. However...to demean the reputation of all real estate agents... i argue this everyday of my career because this is my integrity too.

[Z3guy]

Your perception of Real Estate agents in general is such a stereotype. As for a very good portion that its true...theres some agents that enjoy 'what we're supposed to do.'

Today's technology has tested the careers of real estate agents to see if the internet can do everything is required in real estate. But after seeing whats required and what the internet lacks, it seems there is a need of real estate representation, whether its to represent a buyer or a seller. After 15 years of internet development, it could have been certain that all jobs in this industry would have went to zero....but its not. Z3guy said that he would be using 1% realty....fact of the matter is that he'll need professional representation for a realtor. And to tell you the truth, i am PRAYING that the internet doesn't make us extinct.

Im not a medallion agent with 3 assistants that does 40 sales a year....i'm an agent that works one-on-one with my clients from the beginning to end and does only 15 sales a year....if that. And i don't see myself working with 3 assistants, because i enjoy what i do, i do care about the integrity of my personal career as well as my personal reputation within the industry.

And comments about clients being 'unimaginably naive?' You think that everything in real estate has to revolve around profit, where in my experience, it had little to do with it. In 2008, this was the clients that i helped: a person who was looking to buy a condo for his parents so they can retire here in Vancouver, a person that needed to sell his townhouse before the bank foreclosed on their property, a family with a growing child that needed to relocate due to strata bylaws and other strata concerns,....as well as many others with scenarios like this. So really....them wondering what their property would be worth in 3 years is not their primary concern.


As i said earlier....nobody is arguing with you in regards to the direction of the real estate market. If all you wanted was a pat on the back...there you go. However...to demean the reputation of all real estate agents... i argue this everyday of my career because this is my integrity too.

Hey Raybot, I was generalizing in my earlier comments about Realtors.....you sound like a very reputable geniune sales professional. Unfortunately, I have had bad experiences with realtors when I sold my condo downtown and my first house in Richmond. When I bought my house in Vancouver, my realtor literally spent less than 10 hrs in regards to finding my house. Everytime I saw a house on MLS, she would contact the realtor for me.....bascially for setting up house viewings and doing the paperwork...I paid her over $20K......I would like to make $2000/hr.

[1.8tradoman]

Based on the commission structure, there is absolutely no incentive for the realtor to get you a better deal. So in addition to NOT looking out for your financial interests, they do the minimum to represent you when you are making an offer. They just want the sale, I hate to stereotype but this is the fact of life in sales. However, right now your can negotiate the hell out of the commission. Agents are desperate to get any sales. I know some who will do it for even less than 1%. PM me, I can point you in the right direction (i am not an agent nor will i benefit from it).

Raybot: I am not trying to slag you or your band of brothers. I don't think I ever stated that simple sales tactics were illegal or even morally apprehensible. I only remarked on the sales tactics used by realtors to convince people to buy condos. How many times have you seen and heard "best place on earth" "now is the best time to buy!" "buy now or you will be priced out foreever" "The pride of ownership" "Good fundamentals!" "Anytime is a good time to buy!" "Guarantee appreciation!" "Why pay your landlords mortgage!" etc...

These are BUNK statements, even a backpacker in Argentina knows that.

[1.8tradoman]

1.8tradoman, I have been reading the banter between yourself and Raybot, I have to agree with you man....your market insights are really good for 1st time home buyers or real estate speculators. I am in packaged good sales, however nothing drives me more crazy than Real Estate Agents telling there customers your exact quote.

imo, the real estate profession is a protected bogus industry. Why should agents makes 7% on the first 100K and 2.5% on the rest? What do they really do to deserve such high commission rates? Nowadays, evenone just goes on MLS.com to find property. The agent just makes phone calls with the other agent.

I will using 1% realty when I sell my house.

I am sure Realtors will have a difference of opinion.

I don't real see much difference between Realtors and boiler room stock brokers...."this stock is going to the moon"

If your looking for an agent I would look at these two guys, they run the most informative and genuine blogs about vancouver real estate, much better than the fodder that you get from a regular agent. These guys give you the real deal backed up by RESEARCH. one of them got voted best blog-georgia strait. Tons of info.

http://paul-northvancouverhomes.blogspot.com/
http://robchipman.net/blog/

[1.8tradoman]

"My personal outlook on the market is that it will continue to climb, although not at a rate that we have seen in previous years.
Downtown condo's usually hold their value the best in comparison to other areas, because dowtown is usually where a lot of people want to be and there is limited space down there. However, a house with land will usually hold it's value because land is even more scarce." Quote made by Realtor 04-26-2008.

"Some say that the market will continue to increase due to the olympics, foreign investment from Asian markets and East Coaster's coming here, the amount of money the government is pumping into our economy building a better infrastructure in the GVRD, the fact that Vancouver is still one of the best places in the world to live and is still not too expensive in comparison to some other cities, our interest rates have been dropping again so it's cheaper to borrow money, etc etc etc." Quote made by Realtor 04-28-2008

"This quote states that they think that demand will not be as hot and that lower interest rates will help affordability - therefore even though there isn't as much demand, prices should not drop much (unless they have priced it wrong)." Realtor 04-29-2008

wrong, dead wrong... please people, you have to do your own research. How could he be so wrong? He's paid to ignore the bad and sell you the good.

I've been getting some PM's about forecasting the future, i cannot predict the future but I am pretty damn sure not one single realtor will take my bet. ;)

[Jackwimmer]

we are now in a middle of a crisis :O
housing prices are gonna tank for a while

[VR6GTI]

we are now in a middle of a crisis :O
housing prices are gonna tank for a while
my realtor told me vancouver only sold 5 houses last week. I'm so glad i got got rid of mine :haha:

[Boostaholic]

I just went through this entire thread. damn it's epic!

1.8tradoman you are my hero!

[1.8tradoman]

I just went through this entire thread. damn it's epic!

1.8tradoman you are my hero!

Here are my predictions for 2009.

1. Vancouver Downtown Condo's down 20%. Not even Realtor's expert opinion is going to save the downtown core. Here is his quote:

"Downtown condo's usually hold their value the best in comparison to other areas, because dowtown is usually where a lot of people want to be and there is limited space down there. However, a house with land will usually hold it's value because land is even more scarce."

2. Vancouver SFH down 20%. Even the rich and famous rely on leverage to buy their monster mansions. Negative cash flow properties will get dumped onto the market and further depress the situation.

3. MSM (mainstream media/Rennie marketing machine) continuing to suggest that buying condos will turn you into a millionaire after 2010 when all the rich asians and europeans want to buy a condo in Vancouver after seeing Canada Ice Hockey team defeat the US for the gold medal.

4. Real estate agents on this site and across the lowermainland screaming Spring 2009 will be the LAST CHANCE for you to buy in before you get PRICED OUT forever. This will be their last ditch effort to sell to the Greatest Fool still standing in the presale lineup.

5. 10,000 registered real estate agents in GVRD. I predict 30% will hand in their licenses.

6. Not one single real estate agent on this board will take my bet.

7. Olympic Village Development (public) unsold units vs. Concord, Onni, Polygon (private) unsold units. Its going to be a race to the bottom. Vancouver city begins to pimp Olympic Village units and Private developers get angry and sue the city for dumping condos into the marketplace.

8. Thread Lock!

What are your predictons? Realtor? Ratbot? Crayon?

[1.8tradoman]

I have to amend one of my predictions: Number 4 says:

Real estate agents on this site and across the lowermainland screaming Spring 2009 will be the LAST CHANCE for you to buy in before you get PRICED OUT forever. This will be their last ditch effort to sell to the Greatest Fool still standing in the presale lineup.

I must add and include all mortgage brokers, real estate promoters, investment property development fund managers, and house insurance brokers to this list.

[Realtor]

"My personal outlook on the market is that it will continue to climb, although not at a rate that we have seen in previous years.
Downtown condo's usually hold their value the best in comparison to other areas, because dowtown is usually where a lot of people want to be and there is limited space down there. However, a house with land will usually hold it's value because land is even more scarce." Quote made by Realtor 04-26-2008.

"Some say that the market will continue to increase due to the olympics, foreign investment from Asian markets and East Coaster's coming here, the amount of money the government is pumping into our economy building a better infrastructure in the GVRD, the fact that Vancouver is still one of the best places in the world to live and is still not too expensive in comparison to some other cities, our interest rates have been dropping again so it's cheaper to borrow money, etc etc etc." Quote made by Realtor 04-28-2008

"This quote states that they think that demand will not be as hot and that lower interest rates will help affordability - therefore even though there isn't as much demand, prices should not drop much (unless they have priced it wrong)." Realtor 04-29-2008

wrong, dead wrong... please people, you have to do your own research. How could he be so wrong? He's paid to ignore the bad and sell you the good.

I've been getting some PM's about forecasting the future, i cannot predict the future but I am pretty damn sure not one single realtor will take my bet. ;)



I haven't been on this site for about 9 months or so now, but you still have some major issues 1.8tradoman. If you read my previous posts, I did say that I felt the market would increase slightly in 2008, but I did state that that would only happen if market conditions remained the same. My argument with you before was that you were so sure that the market was going to drop, and luckily for you it has, but like i stated in previous posts, my main beef with you was how you were so sure. Also, changes did occur in the market with the U.S. government dumping money into these big corporations when it's supposed to be a free market, tightened lending practices, new documentation to prove money, consumer confidence, etc, etc.

I hope that people will actually take the time to read previous posts because you seem to only pull out certain commnets to make me and the other realtors on this board look like asses.

As for my comments about the downtown core, it remains true, as the downtown core has not dropped in value as much as the outskirts and yes, a house with land has still held it's value more than condo's in general. I'm sure you are retarded enough to find the anomoly and point it out here since you feel that you are god, so feel free to do so. Also, I did not rule out a drop in the market.

As for this quote that you pulled from way back:

"Some say that the market will continue to increase due to the olympics, foreign investment from Asian markets and East Coaster's coming here, the amount of money the government is pumping into our economy building a better infrastructure in the GVRD, the fact that Vancouver is still one of the best places in the world to live and is still not too expensive in comparison to some other cities, our interest rates have been dropping again so it's cheaper to borrow money, etc etc etc." Quote made by Realtor 04-28-2008"

If you read back to my original post, I gave reasons on why people felt that the market would increase AND reasons why people felt that it would decrease because I wanted to inform people about both sides of the coin. Why didn't you copy the entire post? What's wrong with you? You constantly talk of realtors warping people to make money. Why are you trying to warp people?

It's also funny that you are telling people to do their own research now when that was my whole point before. Do your own research and make your own decisions.

As for your bet, I personally will not take it because there are a lot of factors that may hinder growth, but there are still some that may help or reduce the negative impact in BC, but I don't pretend to be god and say I know what's going to happen.

Also, you keep mentioning and bad mouthing certain realtors. I don't know about which ones you meet, but most of us are professional and don't make stupid comments like the ones you keep talking about. Maybe you got burned by an idiot realtor, and if this is your way of taking it out on us, so be it.

You also pull comments from other people and comments from me and mould them all into one. Please refrain from doing so and anyone that actually takes the time to read these posts will see that you are just shitting. Also, I may or may not agree to everyone elses opinions, so don't just shove them into mine.

Raybot, I feel sorry for you for taking so much time to deal with this tard. I didn't want to bother with him anymore, but he keeps twisting the facts.

Oh wellz, live and learn.

[miss_crayon]

Based on the commission structure, there is absolutely no incentive for the realtor to get you a better deal. So in addition to NOT looking out for your financial interests, they do the minimum to represent you when you are making an offer. They just want the sale, I hate to stereotype but this is the fact of life in sales. However, right now your can negotiate the hell out of the commission. Agents are desperate to get any sales. I know some who will do it for even less than 1%. PM me, I can point you in the right direction (i am not an agent nor will i benefit from it).



how is there no incentive for a realtor from doing the best they can do? it's called getting repeat customers that keep on buying from you after a good business relationship has been made. do you really think a client is going to go back to their original realtor if he/she made zero effort to help the client? maybe you're just meeting half assed realtors in this city but i know a ton that do a damn good job.

and do you even know how much work the genuine realtors do to represent their clients? take a look at the agents that are taking the time to put ads in the magazines and the the money out from their own pocket to support those ads? please don't clump the shady ass realtors you know from the ones that actually are trying to help clients when it comes to purchasing a home.

+ everything raybot said

As i said earlier....nobody is arguing with you in regards to the direction of the real estate market. If all you wanted was a pat on the back...there you go. However...to demean the reputation of all real estate agents... i argue this everyday of my career because this is my integrity too.

[1.8tradoman]

You guys (Realtor) can spin all you want, the fact is that you were wrong on your predictions and I hope that none of your clients took your advice and bought in April 2008 when you clearly suggested that there would be no correction. here is your full quote:

"There actually are a number of arguments for both sides of the coin. Some say that the market will continue to increase due to the olympics, foreign investment from Asian markets and East Coaster's coming here, the amount of money the government is pumping into our economy building a better infrastructure in the GVRD, the fact that Vancouver is still one of the best places in the world to live and is still not too expensive in comparison to some other cities, our interest rates have been dropping again so it's cheaper to borrow money, etc etc etc.
For the other side of the coin, people say that the winter olympics is only a short lived event and that it can't sustain prices, our Canadian dollar is so high at this point in time that it costs a lot more for foreign people to buy here, the baby boomers will evenutally die off leading to more supply, etc etc etc.
I'm kinda tired now and I can't remember any more points, but yeah like I stated earlier, I think the market will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. As for 2011 and 2012 and afterwards, the market will most likely slow down or even dip a bit. But that will depend on many factors, so it's impossible to tell."

I've read this a few times now and you clearly stated that the MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO RISE.

Having a conversation over the keyboard is definitely not the best way to have a fair discussion about an important issue such as real estate. Sometimes things are over blown or misinterpreted when you are typing on a keyboard instead of talking directly to people. I am sorry that I appeared to act in a God-like fashion. I am sorry that I was right. I have learned alot from this thread and I hope you have too.

The thread was started by what I would call a potential FTB. I stated my opinion/predictions and (professional) real estate agents on this site disagreed. I was hoping someone in the real estate profession could educate me about real estate, where they thought it was headed and if it is a good idea to buy. So far, not very convincing.

I bought my first home in 2001 using a real estate agent. She did a great job. So there's no underlying hate for realtors here. In fact after completing a sale without one (realtor) last year, i would use an agent for my next purchase to avoid all the hassles.

Please tell me if it is a good time to buy a condo and why.

Realtor: What are your predictions for 2009? I promise that I won't quote or use them against you. I am just curious where you think real estate is going in 2009.

[Blinky]

Crayon, IIRC the gripe about the commission structure is outlined in Freakonomics (Levitt and Dubner).

Taking a nominal example - the realtor gets, say, 1.5% for every dollar above $300k (I forget what the normal commission levels are). Suppose that you're the vendor and asking for $350k. You get an offer for $330 and if you accept, the realtor gets $450 on top of whatever they get for the first $300k.

But let's say that the realtor has a good knowlege of the area and "knows" that you could squeeze out $350k for your property quite easily, either by bouncing the offer back or by aggressively looking for another prospect. However, to do so, they'd have to do a bunch more work... a few more hours of back n forth etc etc etc. For all those hours of work they gross an additional... $300.

So the realtor goes ahead and doesn't advise you that you could probably get another $20k (gross) on your property, because it doesn't end up being worth their time.

Does this represent the behaviour of all RE agents? Probably not, but Levitt and Dubner did some datamining and figured, iirc, that houses sold by RE agents sold for slightly more, and stayed on-market longer (meaning that they tended to hold out a bit for better offers).

1.8Trado, you've been reading the Vancouver Condo/housing blogs, haven't you?! :D

[1.8tradoman]

Crayon, IIRC the gripe about the commission structure is outlined in Freakonomics (Levitt and Dubner).

Taking a nominal example - the realtor gets, say, 1.5% for every dollar above $300k (I forget what the normal commission levels are). Suppose that you're the vendor and asking for $350k. You get an offer for $330 and if you accept, the realtor gets $450 on top of whatever they get for the first $300k.

But let's say that the realtor has a good knowlege of the area and "knows" that you could squeeze out $350k for your property quite easily, either by bouncing the offer back or by aggressively looking for another prospect. However, to do so, they'd have to do a bunch more work... a few more hours of back n forth etc etc etc. For all those hours of work they gross an additional... $300.

So the realtor goes ahead and doesn't advise you that you could probably get another $20k (gross) on your property, because it doesn't end up being worth their time.

Does this represent the behaviour of all RE agents? Probably not, but Levitt and Dubner did some datamining and figured, iirc, that houses sold by RE agents sold for slightly more, and stayed on-market longer (meaning that they tended to hold out a bit for better offers).

1.8Trado, you've been reading the Vancouver Condo/housing blogs, haven't you?! :D


Your damn right that I did some research before dropping $500,000 on an Onni built leaky condo.
Good luck trying to explain why real estate agents have no incentive to represent the interests of the buyer or seller. They still can't get past the idea that real estate prices cannot be sustained.

[Realtor]

You guys (Realtor) can spin all you want, the fact is that you were wrong on your predictions and I hope that none of your clients took your advice and bought in April 2008 when you clearly suggested that there would be no correction. here is your full quote:

"There actually are a number of arguments for both sides of the coin. Some say that the market will continue to increase due to the olympics, foreign investment from Asian markets and East Coaster's coming here, the amount of money the government is pumping into our economy building a better infrastructure in the GVRD, the fact that Vancouver is still one of the best places in the world to live and is still not too expensive in comparison to some other cities, our interest rates have been dropping again so it's cheaper to borrow money, etc etc etc.
For the other side of the coin, people say that the winter olympics is only a short lived event and that it can't sustain prices, our Canadian dollar is so high at this point in time that it costs a lot more for foreign people to buy here, the baby boomers will evenutally die off leading to more supply, etc etc etc.
I'm kinda tired now and I can't remember any more points, but yeah like I stated earlier, I think the market will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. As for 2011 and 2012 and afterwards, the market will most likely slow down or even dip a bit. But that will depend on many factors, so it's impossible to tell."

I've read this a few times now and you clearly stated that the MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO RISE.

Having a conversation over the keyboard is definitely not the best way to have a fair discussion about an important issue such as real estate. Sometimes things are over blown or misinterpreted when you are typing on a keyboard instead of talking directly to people. I am sorry that I appeared to act in a God-like fashion. I am sorry that I was right. I have learned alot from this thread and I hope you have too.

The thread was started by what I would call a potential FTB. I stated my opinion/predictions and (professional) real estate agents on this site disagreed. I was hoping someone in the real estate profession could educate me about real estate, where they thought it was headed and if it is a good idea to buy. So far, not very convincing.

I bought my first home in 2001 using a real estate agent. She did a great job. So there's no underlying hate for realtors here. In fact after completing a sale without one (realtor) last year, i would use an agent for my next purchase to avoid all the hassles.

Please tell me if it is a good time to buy a condo and why.

Realtor: What are your predictions for 2009? I promise that I won't quote or use them against you. I am just curious where you think real estate is going in 2009.


Are you illiterate? You say that you have read that a few times and it clearly states that the market will continue to rise, but what part of it do you not understand?
"I THINK the market will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. As for 2011 and 2012 and afterwards, the MARKET WILL MOST LIKELY SLOW DOWN OR EVEN DIP BIT. BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON MANY FACTORS, SO IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL."

Ok so now it's 2009 and like I stated before, changes in the market have occured and the market has dropped - yes earlier than I predicted. Funny thing is, I never full out disagreed with the fact that you felt the market was dropping, I just didn't like how you felt you KNEW the market was dropping.

I did clearly state that the market would not be as hot as previous years, and due to fluctuations in market conditions that I have mentioned in my above post, by late spring, I started to change my opinions about the market still rising, although I did not take the time to log into Revscene to post my changing opinion. I did however express my concerns to my clients and even in the beginning of the year when i felt that the market would still increase slightly, I did provide my clients with the other side of the coin so that they could make their own choices. By early summer, i did express to most of my clients that market would probably be dropping and some were lucky enough to sell their places.

As for if it's a good time to buy a condo now, it will depend on different things and people should talk to a good realtor (not the ones that 1.8 tradoman keeps mentioning). The market definitely is not as hot as previous years, but different people have different motivations for buying and the market always changes. No one knows for a fact when the market will go up or down (except 1.8 tradoman of course - he can always predict the future.)

As for my predictions for 2009 - so far the market has been horrible and people have been waiting to see when it will go up again, and so no one has been buying lately. As I mentioned before, the fall-winter market is typically bad, but the market usually picks up a bit in spring. People may buy either because they need to, or they may feel that the bottom is near or over. I THINK that the market will pick up a bit this spring. As for the rest of the year, there are a lot of factors that may change things. Do your research people.

1.8 tradoman - I do apologize to you that I keep taking jabs at you and maybe you don't intend to sound like god. You do seem like an intelligent person but you seem caustic in your replies and you do have to admit that you only hand picked quotes to support your own arguments. (Don't worry I do this when I negotiate too.) Maybe you would make a good realtor or business man one day. :)

[Z3guy]

Obviously I am generalizing, but you realtors make me laugh, you guys are 1 step up from used car salesman. The majority of reatlors could care less to get an extra $10K or $20K for their clients because the increase in commission is minimal.

[RayBot]

Obviously I am generalizing, but you realtors make me laugh, you guys are 1 step up from used car salesman. .

Sorry...kinda have to disagree. With the financial blah blah blah is going on.....looks like a used car salesman may be the career sales choice for the next year.

[1.8tradoman]

Sorry...kinda have to disagree. With the financial blah blah blah is going on.....looks like a used car salesman may be the career sales choice for the next year.

You really still don't get it do you? The financial meltdown will effect you and your clients.

Oh yes the panic is starting in Vancouver.... ONNI to LIQUIDATE inventory...

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2009/01/14/bc-onni-condo-sale.html

This is the beginning of the rush to the exits and the last ones standing will be real estate agents holding presales and Raybot's clients who don't care about the coming crash. (not trying to single you out Raybot but you really seem like you think everything is fine and dandy).

Guess what your investment condo looks like now? you just got wacked a possible 20-40%. And if you listen to the real estate agents they will tell you its still a good time to buy!

[1.8tradoman]

And one more thing.. imagine you had just bought one of those units in the ONNI development YESTERDAY on the advice of a real estate agent. And now the exact unit gets liquidated at 20%-40% discount. Would you be angry enough to sue your agent for NEGLIGENCE? hmm... food for thought... i sure would...

[1.8tradoman]

Obviously I am generalizing, but you realtors make me laugh, you guys are 1 step up from used car salesman. The majority of reatlors could care less to get an extra $10K or $20K for their clients because the increase in commission is minimal.


To be fair to real estate agents here, it does take $875 and 6 months of correspondance to be a real estate "Professional". Does that include a CRASH course? j\k

reference: http://www.sauder.ubc.ca/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Real_Estate_Trading_Services# tuition.

[ride98]

So I would like to ask, if there was a unit for sale at the Shangri La strata at the price of say back when it was 2004 for example, when condo prices in DT was still reasonable. Would you guys consider it since it is already 20-40% cheaper than the prices are as of right now.

[RayBot]

Of course i don't care...i don't deal with pre-sales, because theres nothing worth anyones while..and i know that. I've already mentioned it three times in this thread...i don't deal with investors. Realtor already said it a couple of times people have different motivations for buying or selling. . Sure, nobody likes to lose money on ANYTING that they buy...but every single one of your implications imply that everyone's purpose of buying real estate is to have a return on investment.

[1.8tradoman]

Of course i don't care...i don't deal with pre-sales, because theres nothing worth anyones while..and i know that. I've already mentioned it three times in this thread...i don't deal with investors. Realtor already said it a couple of times people have different motivations for buying or selling. . Sure, nobody likes to lose money on ANYTING that they buy...but every single one of your implications imply that everyone's purpose of buying real estate is to have a return on investment.

YES! The purpose of buying real estate IS to have a return on investment! Please tell me who buys real estate with the intention of NOT having a return? Give me their names and I will gladly take their money with no intention of giving them a return on their investment.

Not everyone can have their parents give them money to buy a condo (although I think this may be the case with many FTB's today). Those who actually had to work and save for a deposit on a home will know what I am talking about. Why would you throw away your hard earned money?

As for Realtor's differing motivations when buying a condo, its all just tip toeing around the fact that there is NO logical reason why you should buy a condo now, 6 months ago when this thread began, or this year! He just won't come out and say it (without disclaimers).

[1.8tradoman]

So I would like to ask, if there was a unit for sale at the Shangri La strata at the price of say back when it was 2004 for example, when condo prices in DT was still reasonable. Would you guys consider it since it is already 20-40% cheaper than the prices are as of right now.

The great thing about condos is that it is very easy to look at similar units and compare them against each other. Most real estate agents don't realize this but THE LAST PURCHASE PRICE DOES NOT SET THE MARKET in a bear market that we are in right now. Just because some dimwit bought at $750 per square foot last week doesn't mean you should put in a similar offer based on the last purchase price of a similar unit. I like how you have used 2004 price levels as a starting point for purchasing a condo. I would start looking at 2001 price levels. There's a ton of reasons. PM me if your seriously looking to put an offer on the table (I will not gain anything other than knowing someone is not getting screwed over).

You know what the strata fees are at Shangri La right? Unit 1808 will run you a cool $550 month. Just for fun because this is a car forum, you can lease a 2009 BMW 135i Coupe with Nav control for that kind of money. No kidding. My buddy works at BMW (and he'll sell you anything in that lot too).

[wyattH]

buy my unit this summer.
yaletown (2 years old), 31st floor, 1 bedroom + office, ss appliances + granite counters, in suite laundry, parking, balcony with grill, gym downstairs, etc etc... :D :D :D

[ride98]

The great thing about condos is that it is very easy to look at similar units and compare them against each other. Most real estate agents don't realize this but THE LAST PURCHASE PRICE DOES NOT SET THE MARKET in a bear market that we are in right now. Just because some dimwit bought at $750 per square foot last week doesn't mean you should put in a similar offer based on the last purchase price of a similar unit. I like how you have used 2004 price levels as a starting point for purchasing a condo. I would start looking at 2001 price levels. There's a ton of reasons. PM me if your seriously looking to put an offer on the table (I will not gain anything other than knowing someone is not getting screwed over).

You know what the strata fees are at Shangri La right? Unit 1808 will run you a cool $550 month. Just for fun because this is a car forum, you can lease a 2009 BMW 135i Coupe with Nav control for that kind of money. No kidding. My buddy works at BMW (and he'll sell you anything in that lot too).




Thanks for the input man, I've gotten so many lectures from so many different ppl already about his purchase. I liked how you've owned every other realtors in this thread though haha. Nice. I've already put down a official offer for the unit. Basically US investors bought in 2004, put down deposit, sold it to another US investor who took over the deposit and additional lift in 2005. Now they cannot find financing to close the deal so they just want their deposit and lift back. So when it comes down to it, I would still be purchasing at the 2004 pricing. I do have to pay tax though, the unit is not completed yet. Any comments?

[1.8tradoman]

If you have a look at Craigslist there are tons of condo units for sale where owners are willing to walk away from their deposits if someone wants to takeover financing upon completion. There is speculation that Onni is auctioning some of these condos because they can sue the original purchaser for the difference. This is just the beginning. Unless you are dead against renting for a year or two, I would rescind your offer, give them some BS reason (lack of financing), AND WAIT. If there were a way that I could short Vancouver real estate right now , I would put every penny into it ( No one willing to take my bet ). I think you already know what my response would be. There's a long way to go down... and what's your hurry anyways? By winter time your going to have real estate agents climbing over each other to give you a better deal.

[Liquid_o2]

1.8tradoman is my hero :thumbsup: Although I don't agree with everything you have said in this thread, I agree with probably 90% of it. Myself being deeply involved in not only the local land development market, but globally, it makes me happy to see that some people know what they are talking about.

Two years ago me and my friend were screaming that the market was over saturated and prices were going to correct themselves before the Olympics came. Glad I'm right.

Not really going to say much else because 1.8tradoman pretty much explained everything pretty well.

In the Vancouver Sun today they had a big article on how the market right now is great for first time home buyers and they should jump in on the asap. I laughed. Unless you plan on living in that first time buyer condo for 10+ years maybe. Market correction is going to be occurring for a little while longer.

[CRS]

So 1.8tradoman, when is the best time to buy?

*edit:
Also looking for a good site that I can browse through listings! Looking for houses mainly.. Not so much apartments or condos.

[Blinky]

I'm not trado, but there are a few things to consider:

- what your wants/needs are (this is what Raybot is referring to)
- financially, there are many ways to figure out what is a "reasonable" price:
* via rent vs mortgage ratio
* via historical price graphs - what the "real" price of RE should be if it's adjusted up from the historical rate from about, oh, 2002 - before the bubble really started to inflate. Check out this graph:

http://www.affordablevancouverhomes.com/account/767599610d8c925c/pages/416_27.jpg

[1.8tradoman]

I'm not trado, but there are a few things to consider:

- what your wants/needs are (this is what Raybot is referring to)
- financially, there are many ways to figure out what is a "reasonable" price:
* via rent vs mortgage ratio
* via historical price graphs - what the "real" price of RE should be if it's adjusted up from the historical rate from about, oh, 2002 - before the bubble really started to inflate. Check out this graph:

http://www.affordablevancouverhomes.com/account/767599610d8c925c/pages/416_27.jpg

Nice... now put this chart side by side with your chart : Median after tax income canada.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-202-x/2006000/5203690-eng.htm

And tell me what the problem is.

[johny]

when 2 bedroom apts drop to under 200k I'll go looking.

also when mortgate rates drop more.. bank rates are way too high vs canadian bank prime. banks prime is droping, but lending rates arn't for new buyers they are still 4%+. while people who bought a mortage last year are paying around 2.75% now. every time prime drops they just tack more onto the lending rates prime ++ so new buyers don't win. only current holders.

[03c0upe]

damn i havent been checking this thread but look what ive started lol

[1.8tradoman]

So 1.8tradoman, when is the best time to buy?

*edit:
Also looking for a good site that I can browse through listings! Looking for houses mainly.. Not so much apartments or condos.

Very good question. Read this first:

http://housing-analysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/ownership-premium.html

If you can understand this article, its a little difficult to digest on the first read but read some of the comments and you'll find that there are actually people using LOGIC and common sense to determine when is the best time to buy. If you decide to buy on emotion and "pride" than anytime is a good time to buy according to real estate agents.

[quasi]

when 2 bedroom apts drop to under 200k I'll go looking.

also when mortgate rates drop more.. bank rates are way too high vs canadian bank prime. banks prime is droping, but lending rates arn't for new buyers they are still 4%+. while people who bought a mortage last year are paying around 2.75% now. every time prime drops they just tack more onto the lending rates prime ++ so new buyers don't win. only current holders.

I have that -.75 below prime rate for another 4 years so win win for me. Smoke you Johny. :)

[CRS]

So any good sites to sift through for houses for sale?

[Blinky]

So any good sites to sift through for houses for sale?

mls.ca

[Feint*]

Realtors are having tough time now moving the market

Onni's 40% sale happens in March - you can bet their huge team of business analysts crunched # that even at that price discount its far better than risk of having inventory ON HAND if shit hits fan some more.

Buyer's market now. It may be mean, but lowball the shit out of houses/condos!! Banks are still charging prime above+ , which makes no fundamental sense for consumers - pitch mortgage brokers against each other, commission-based compensation will ensure one side caves out of necessity.

[CRS]

mls.ca

Thank you kindly Sir

Realtors are having tough time now moving the market

Onni's 40% sale happens in March - you can bet their huge team of business analysts crunched # that even at that price discount its far better than risk of having inventory ON HAND if shit hits fan some more.

Buyer's market now. It may be mean, but lowball the shit out of houses/condos!! Banks are still charging prime above+ , which makes no fundamental sense for consumers - pitch mortgage brokers against each other, commission-based compensation will ensure one side caves out of necessity.

I'm planning to lowball and try to get some negotiations going but what is honestly a good lowball? In all reality, should I just get an agent to do the lowballing for me or should I do it myself? If a house is say 800k, what would my first offer be? How do I check how long the house is already on the market for? Looking to put some money down but don't really know where to start. Any advice is good. Other than look for a good agent which I already know is an option.

[Jackwimmer]

housing will decline for 5-7 years from what ive heard...
unless ur able to lowball like mad, i dont think it would be worth it

[CRS]

is there any website that will show DOM for houses or if the price was reduced?

I know you can get it through an agent but that will be my last resort. Any other way other than that?

Thank you in advance!

[1.8tradoman]

is there any website that will show DOM for houses or if the price was reduced?

I know you can get it through an agent but that will be my last resort. Any other way other than that?

Thank you in advance!

Unfortunately you will have to use a real estate agent to get access to the mls. Remember you don't have to pay them anything until you decide buy. There's lots of them around now with nothing to do. Give your agent some search parameters and get as much information as possible. Then get rid of him/her and talk to the selling agent privately. 2001 prices would be a good starting offer.

[Jermyzy]

I have that -.75 below prime rate for another 4 years so win win for me. Smoke you Johny. :)

Prime -0.90 here :). My brother went in for a mortgage quote a while ago and there are no more prime minus mortages any more. It's prime PLUS now :(

[CRS]

Unfortunately you will have to use a real estate agent to get access to the mls. Remember you don't have to pay them anything until you decide buy. There's lots of them around now with nothing to do. Give your agent some search parameters and get as much information as possible. Then get rid of him/her and talk to the selling agent privately. 2001 prices would be a good starting offer.

How would I go about this? Do I just send an agent an e-mail and wait for the replies or something else?

[1.8tradoman]

How would I go about this? Do I just send an agent an e-mail and wait for the replies or something else?


Well you can't really use any of the agents on this board because they know you will dump them as soon as you find something you like. Just call the selling agent of a property that you are interested and book an appointment to see the place or just go to an open house. You can start your search using mls.ca. DO NOT talk about an offer. Just gather info. You can PM me and I could assist you when making a low ball offer.

[RayBot]

You think asking for information from a random realtor, pretending to buy something through them, and using up their time and dumping them is 'COOL?'

Thank goodness I am not involved in a situation like this....but what kind of person finds it cool to manipulate people just for information??

Right now, Lowballing IS A GOOD THING TO DO at the time being....but if you feel comfortable on placing a 175k offer on a property thats being listed for 300k, then by all means....go for it, because thats what 2001 prices were.

CRS:
This is going to be my last post in this thread for obvious reasons....but i might as well state some advice that is somewhat reasonable, unbiased, and it STILL involves dumping your realtor. Obviously, i have nothing to gain from this, so why should i say something that i didn't beleive in....:
-As stated, theres more than 10,000 realtors in the GVan area, i am sure if you look in your facebook friend's list, you'll bump into one that you know. And if you don't, ask your CLOSEST friends if they have a friend....and ask them information.

*If you've never bought a place before, or have little knowledge on the whole process, try to get someone you can trust to explain the process to you....because, you or your representative will be giving the offer. Sometimes its the WORST thing to do, especially if you don't know the ropes, is to go to the selling agent. But if you know what you're doing...thats a different story. Why?? You do the math....selling realtor makes two times than he expects in one sale. Who's he seriously looking out for?

-Fact: There IS A LOT OF REALTORS that just want your sale, and will tell you advice otherwise...do your own research. Revscene isn't a source of research.

-False Fact: "Remember you don't have to pay them anything until you decide buy" is FALSE. You NEVER have to pay a realtor anything out of your pocket, other than the expenses incurred in the purchase, where the 'proceeds' of the sale will go to the buyer's realtor. Close contact with a realtor that says their services cost something.....PERIOD.
-on a sidenote, buyers agency agreements is some tools realtors want to use, again, if they try to present that...close all contact with that realtor.

-Tell the realtor two things:
1. Your loyalty goes to the person that can absolutely get the best deal...obviously the realtor will be WORKING for their money, and you can see if they are even willing to work for you, or just get the sale.
2. Tell the realtor that OTHER realtors are willing to share their commission. Ask him if he's willing to do the same. Fact of the matter is that there are realtors willing to do it...because in this market, a small gain is better than redundant office fees.

-The moment you hear one thing that feels otherwise untrustworthy, again.....close all contact. Obviously, that person did or didn't do something to keep your loyalty. End of story.

-If the best deal lies within the option of dealing with the listing realtor.....then make sure you get part of his commission. They aren't gonna say no: they get two medallion points, they still make more money, and they can expense the share that they give you. They can't say no to that....


Fact of the matter, CRS, any buyer has TONNES of options...and if you don't feel that you know what you are doing, theres nothing wrong with asking for representation. Not everybody has the benefit and experience of buying/selling properties on a regular basis to the point that they know real estate like a science.

What i have stated above are OPTIONS that a buyer can use whether its a hot market or a slow market. Nothing wrong as using a realtor as your butler, and making him money IF he deserves it...

...but there are other options rather than the method used in previous posts. Obviously you don't want anyone to do it to you in your own job position...so why put it on someone else?

[CRS]

You think asking for information from a random realtor, pretending to buy something through them, and using up their time and dumping them is 'COOL?'

Thank goodness I am not involved in a situation like this....but what kind of person finds it cool to manipulate people just for information??

Right now, Lowballing IS A GOOD THING TO DO at the time being....but if you feel comfortable on placing a 175k offer on a property thats being listed for 300k, then by all means....go for it, because thats what 2001 prices were.

CRS:
This is going to be my last post in this thread for obvious reasons....but i might as well state some advice that is somewhat reasonable, unbiased, and it STILL involves dumping your realtor. Obviously, i have nothing to gain from this, so why should i say something that i didn't beleive in....:
-As stated, theres more than 10,000 realtors in the GVan area, i am sure if you look in your facebook friend's list, you'll bump into one that you know. And if you don't, ask your CLOSEST friends if they have a friend....and ask them information.

*If you've never bought a place before, or have little knowledge on the whole process, try to get someone you can trust to explain the process to you....because, you or your representative will be giving the offer. Sometimes its the WORST thing to do, especially if you don't know the ropes, is to go to the selling agent. But if you know what you're doing...thats a different story. Why?? You do the math....selling realtor makes two times than he expects in one sale. Who's he seriously looking out for?

-Fact: There IS A LOT OF REALTORS that just want your sale, and will tell you advice otherwise...do your own research. Revscene isn't a source of research.

-False Fact: "Remember you don't have to pay them anything until you decide buy" is FALSE. You NEVER have to pay a realtor anything out of your pocket, other than the expenses incurred in the purchase, where the 'proceeds' of the sale will go to the buyer's realtor. Close contact with a realtor that says their services cost something.....PERIOD.
-on a sidenote, buyers agency agreements is some tools realtors want to use, again, if they try to present that...close all contact with that realtor.

-Tell the realtor two things:
1. Your loyalty goes to the person that can absolutely get the best deal...obviously the realtor will be WORKING for their money, and you can see if they are even willing to work for you, or just get the sale.
2. Tell the realtor that OTHER realtors are willing to share their commission. Ask him if he's willing to do the same. Fact of the matter is that there are realtors willing to do it...because in this market, a small gain is better than redundant office fees.

-The moment you hear one thing that feels otherwise untrustworthy, again.....close all contact. Obviously, that person did or didn't do something to keep your loyalty. End of story.

-If the best deal lies within the option of dealing with the listing realtor.....then make sure you get part of his commission. They aren't gonna say no: they get two medallion points, they still make more money, and they can expense the share that they give you. They can't say no to that....


Fact of the matter, CRS, any buyer has TONNES of options...and if you don't feel that you know what you are doing, theres nothing wrong with asking for representation. Not everybody has the benefit and experience of buying/selling properties on a regular basis to the point that they know real estate like a science.

What i have stated above are OPTIONS that a buyer can use whether its a hot market or a slow market. Nothing wrong as using a realtor as your butler, and making him money IF he deserves it...

...but there are other options rather than the method used in previous posts. Obviously you don't want anyone to do it to you in your own job position...so why put it on someone else?

Thank you kind for all your advice and info!

This is my first time around it but I do know some agents.. I hear that housing markets are still going to go down for a while.. I think I'll wait it out for a bit but thank you all again for all your info and help!

[1.8tradoman]

Now I have seen it all... Real estate agent posts :

"-False Fact: "Remember you don't have to pay them anything until you decide buy" is FALSE. You NEVER have to pay a realtor anything out of your pocket, other than the expenses incurred in the purchase, where the 'proceeds' of the sale will go to the buyer's realtor." end quote.

Who pays the commission? Both parties involved in the transaction PAY THE COMMISSION. The realtors dice up the commission after the sale of the property! Please tell explain to me how you get paid other than from the pocket of your client?

How can anyone possibly believe that "You NEVER have to pay a realtor anything out of your pocket".

There is one statement that is very true in that post:

-Fact: There IS A LOT OF REALTORS that just want your sale, and will tell you advice otherwise...do your own research. Revscene isn't a source of research.

I agree revscene isn't a good source for research.

[RayBot]

The seller (property owner) pays the commission....to both their own realtor and the buyer's agent.

Does the buyer pay something above and beyond the purchase price that goes to the realtor? No. They pay the purchase price and closing costs, just like its a private deal where there 0 realtors involved.

Does the buyer pay anything less if they didn't have a representative? No. They pay the purchase price and closing costs, just like its a private deal where there 0 realtors involved.

Don't tell me the realtor that you used to buy whatever property you got charged you out of pocket????

So let me reapeat that....You NEVER have to pay a realtor anything out of your pocket, other than the expenses incurred in the purchase, where the 'proceeds' of the sale will go to the buyer's realtor.

[1.8tradoman]

The seller (property owner) pays the commission....to both their own realtor and the buyer's agent.

Does the buyer pay something above and beyond the purchase price that goes to the realtor? No. They pay the purchase price and closing costs, just like its a private deal where there 0 realtors involved.

Does the buyer pay anything less if they didn't have a representative? No. They pay the purchase price and closing costs, just like its a private deal where there 0 realtors involved.

Don't tell me the realtor that you used to buy whatever property you got charged you out of pocket????

So let me reapeat that....You NEVER have to pay a realtor anything out of your pocket, other than the expenses incurred in the purchase, where the 'proceeds' of the sale will go to the buyer's realtor.

I am sorry, I must have misread your words.

If I had a house that was worth $500,000, and I wanted to sell it tomorrow, could you tell me what I (seller) would have to pay the realtor in commission? And what would the buyer pay in commission to his agent? just give me a round number...

[RayBot]

between 5,000 (1% realty) to 12,000....plus gst.

Again...the buyer doesnt pay his realtor anything....but will probably make between 2500 to 6500 of what the seller had to pay their agent.

[1.8tradoman]

between 5,000 (1% realty) to 12,000....plus gst.

Again...the buyer doesnt pay his realtor anything....but will probably make between 2500 to 6500 of what the seller had to pay their agent.

Just like many of the debunked statements made by realtors here like: "Buy now before you are priced out forever" "Anytime is a good time to buy real estate", Once again I have to disagree with Raybot and the propoganda machine called the real estate board.

The real estate industry argument that the seller is paying the commission is a myth. The fact is that real estate commission is already included into the sale price. So the TRUTH is that it is the market pricing mechanism that provide for the payment of commission in a real estate transaction.

As a buyer, you aren’t really getting the service for free!

Let me explain in a more practical way, the seller prices his\her property, KNOWING what he\she will have to pay in commission and prices the property accordingly. GUESS WHO pays the commission in a sale (in the end)? THE BUYER. The sale of the home is completely dependent on the guy\girl who writes the cheque at the end of the day, NOT the SELLER. You the buyer PAYS the commission. After you (the buyer)cut the cheque it gets distributed to everyone in the transaction (seller agent, buyer agent, government, lawyers, and finally the seller.)

It is hidden in the transaction, another debunked sales tactic used to get you to buy that over-valued, depreciating and leaking condo. Buyer Beware!

[RayBot]

Well, considering theres two things in that post that are completely factually wrong....theres no need to explain considering that you're the expert.

I'm sure someone that does actually know will explain it.

[1.8tradoman]

Well, considering theres two things in that post that are completely factually wrong....theres no need to explain considering that you're the expert.

I'm sure someone that does actually know will explain it.


Raybot, I am just trying to get you to see that there is another interpretation of how a real estate transaction works. Don't get offended.

Tell me where the money comes from in a real estate transaction? Anotherwords who writes the cheque?

The buyer or seller? clearly the buyer.

You've already told me how the commission is calculated and divided up, but please tell me where the money comes from? Without the buyer there is no market, no sale, NO COMMISSION. Where am I wrong on this point?

[jasonturbo]

Raybot... I suggest you read a book written by Garth Turner titled "Greater Fool"...

Great website for everyone who has an interest in this thread

greaterfool.ca

[Blinky]

trado, why don't you let up? You're basically arguing semantics.

You can do *anything* in life without an expert. Some things, like open heart surgery or designing a bridge, are definitely best left to experts. Other things, like auto repair or real estate, may be more doable by the average Joe (or Jane). Don't like what a RE agent does? DIY.

[1.8tradoman]

trado, why don't you let up? You're basically arguing semantics.

You can do *anything* in life without an expert. Some things, like open heart surgery or designing a bridge, are definitely best left to experts. Other things, like auto repair or real estate, may be more doable by the average Joe (or Jane). Don't like what a RE agent does? DIY.

ok I'll let up on these guys for now but you gotta believe its more than just semantics. How about you tell me where the commission comes from in a real estate transaction? You seem to be a fairly practical person based on your post...

[1.8tradoman]

"First, I have heard it said that no party pays the commission and that the transaction actually pays for the services. Figuring that one out may tax your noodle. I am not of that school of thought. That would be like saying that benefits from the government are free. Most of us have found that to be a fallacy. There is no free lunch.

I have also heard it said that when a “For Sale By Owner” property is sold directly to a buyer, both parties think that they have saved the commission. That one may require some even deeper thought. Incidentally, the National Association of Realtors claims that 85 percent of all homes that sell are eventually sold by a Realtor. This is due partially to the fact that sellers tend to price a property too high. Most usually find that, aside from the aspect of the fee, they actually save money with the services of a Realtor. This can make the issue of who pays the commission, and even whether there really is a commission, less transparent or understandable.

Some say that the seller pays the commission, since it is deducted from his proceeds as specified in the listing agreement. Others argue that the buyer pays the commission since it is his money that is given to the seller for the house and is used, in part, to pay the commission. Furthermore, it could be argued that both the buyer and seller pay a share, since they both receive service from the agents.

Although there is no black and white answer to this question, I believe it is the seller who pays the commission. This is not only because it is legally so, but also because the seller is the party that determines the amount and to whom it will be paid. This is similar to the situation of the hardware store owner who sells merchandise and uses the proceeds to pay his employees who make the sales." end quote.

"Who Really Pays the Commission?

It can be argued and, quite rightfully so, that the buyer always pays the commission. Why? Because it's typically part of the sales price. If the seller did not sign an agreement to pay a commission, the sales price might have been lowered. And therein lies the appeal of buying homes through unrepresented sellers because, given the same logic, those prices should reflect a net sales price without a commission. But those sellers haven't quite figured this out yet which causes potential buyers of those listings to be consistently disappointed." end quote.
"

Seems like there might be others who agree with me. Raybot do you think we can come to some common ground here?

[Blinky]

ok I'll let up on these guys for now but you gotta believe its more than just semantics. How about you tell me where the commission comes from in a real estate transaction? You seem to be a fairly practical person based on your post...

I don't see what difference it really makes. The buyer pays it indirectly. The seller pays it indirectly. It's semantic.

Perhaps the best example is this - if two people consumate a RE transaction without agents, they'd settle on a price of, say $300 000. Does that price already indicate a discount for the lack of agents? Was that discount negotiated and explicitly included? Or does a price of $295 000 reflect the lack of an agent more?

Who cares? The buyer pays more or the seller gets less. Who cares?

[CivicBlues]

I don't see what difference it really makes. The buyer pays it indirectly. The seller pays it indirectly. It's semantic.

Perhaps the best example is this - if two people consumate a RE transaction without agents, they'd settle on a price of, say $300 000. Does that price already indicate a discount for the lack of agents? Was that discount negotiated and explicitly included? Or does a price of $295 000 reflect the lack of an agent more?

Who cares? The buyer pays more or the seller gets less. Who cares?

It may be just arguing semantics, but it DOES matter as Raybot is implying that the cost to the buyer is nil when in fact the commission is built in to the price.

[1.8tradoman]

I don't see what difference it really makes. The buyer pays it indirectly. The seller pays it indirectly. It's semantic.

Perhaps the best example is this - if two people consumate a RE transaction without agents, they'd settle on a price of, say $300 000. Does that price already indicate a discount for the lack of agents? Was that discount negotiated and explicitly included? Or does a price of $295 000 reflect the lack of an agent more?

Who cares? The buyer pays more or the seller gets less. Who cares?

It matters when the agent explicitly tells you that you do not pay commission to the buyer's agent.

I don't think we disagree here, we both understand that both the buyer and seller pay commission from the proceeds of the transaction that COMES OUT OF SOMEONES POCKET. You pay commission whether you like it or not, whether your the buyer or seller.

[Feint*]

Raybot... I suggest you read a book written by Garth Turner titled "Greater Fool"...

Great website for everyone who has an interest in this thread

greaterfool.ca

Great suggestion! Real estate agents will have ALOT more time to read books soon

[1.8tradoman]

Here are my predictions for 2009.

1. Vancouver Downtown Condo's down 20%. Not even Realtor's expert opinion is going to save the downtown core. Here is his quote:

"Downtown condo's usually hold their value the best in comparison to other areas, because dowtown is usually where a lot of people want to be and there is limited space down there. However, a house with land will usually hold it's value because land is even more scarce."

2. Vancouver SFH down 20%. Even the rich and famous rely on leverage to buy their monster mansions. Negative cash flow properties will get dumped onto the market and further depress the situation.

3. MSM (mainstream media/Rennie marketing machine) continuing to suggest that buying condos will turn you into a millionaire after 2010 when all the rich asians and europeans want to buy a condo in Vancouver after seeing Canada Ice Hockey team defeat the US for the gold medal.

4. Real estate agents on this site and across the lowermainland screaming Spring 2009 will be the LAST CHANCE for you to buy in before you get PRICED OUT forever. This will be their last ditch effort to sell to the Greatest Fool still standing in the presale lineup.

5. 10,000 registered real estate agents in GVRD. I predict 30% will hand in their licenses.

6. Not one single real estate agent on this board will take my bet.

7. Olympic Village Development (public) unsold units vs. Concord, Onni, Polygon (private) unsold units. Its going to be a race to the bottom. Vancouver city begins to pimp Olympic Village units and Private developers get angry and sue the city for dumping condos into the marketplace.

8. Thread Lock!


Looks like my #7 predictions is currently being fulfilled...

http://www.vancouversun.com/Homes/Condo+buyer+plans+battle+back+developer+lawsuit/1258234/story.html

Onni attempting to dump units on the marketplace, looking for the last few suckers who have no clue what is happening around them and relying on their real estate agent to advise them on real estate investments.
I feel sorry for these people who used their retirement money to buy a condo and watch it disappear while the their agent is vacationing in Hawaii with the commission.
Wish they had read this thread 9 months ago and saved them the $70,000 they are now about to lose. They should sue their agent for giving them bad advice.

[CRS]

Looks like my #7 predictions is currently being fulfilled...

http://www.vancouversun.com/Homes/Condo+buyer+plans+battle+back+developer+lawsuit/1258234/story.html

Onni attempting to dump units on the marketplace, looking for the last few suckers who have no clue what is happening around them and relying on their real estate agent to advise them on real estate investments.
I feel sorry for these people who used their retirement money to buy a condo and watch it disappear while the their agent is vacationing in Hawaii with the commission.
Wish they had read this thread 9 months ago and saved them the $70,000 they are now about to lose. They should sue their agent for giving them bad advice.

Hmmm so what is wrong with Onni dumping their units into the marketplace? Would the buyer be in a situation where they can choose a unit for a cheaper price? I'm confused.

[quasi]

Looks like my #7 predictions is currently being fulfilled...

http://www.vancouversun.com/Homes/Condo+buyer+plans+battle+back+developer+lawsuit/1258234/story.html

Onni attempting to dump units on the marketplace, looking for the last few suckers who have no clue what is happening around them and relying on their real estate agent to advise them on real estate investments.
I feel sorry for these people who used their retirement money to buy a condo and watch it disappear while the their agent is vacationing in Hawaii with the commission.
Wish they had read this thread 9 months ago and saved them the $70,000 they are now about to lose. They should sue their agent for giving them bad advice.

That sucks for the couple in the article but why sign the deal? 3 years ago there was this house I really really wanted but the developer would not sell it dependent on me selling my home at the time. I decided I didn't want to risk being stuck with two properties so I missed out on it.

Two years later I finally decided it was time to move so I sold my house before even starting to look seriously at places to buy. They are in a horrible position but they were idiots for putting themselves in it. If the market kept on rising and the place was worth 30% more then what they bought it for would they pay the developer more? If the answer is no then I think you have to eat it.

[Jackwimmer]

its all over people! THERE IS NO PRAYER :lol
housing i believe will decline for the next 4-5 years
im gonna estimate around a 40% drop within that time period, slightly more than analysts.

[CRS]

its all over people! THERE IS NO PRAYER :lol
housing i believe will decline for the next 4-5 years
im gonna estimate around a 40% drop within that time period, slightly more than analysts.

And what are you referencing from?

Just your opinion or have you something that you're hiding?

[1.8tradoman]

Hmmm so what is wrong with Onni dumping their units into the marketplace? Would the buyer be in a situation where they can choose a unit for a cheaper price? I'm confused.

Lets say that you bought a unit 2 months ago at $500 sq/ft. The developer decides to offer 25% discount this month. You would be pretty damn upset if the guy next to you buys at $375 sq/ft (25% discount) right after you moved in?

There is nothing wrong with Onni dumping units on the market. I only predicted it, I never stated it was a bad thing, in fact, its a good thing because people will realize that if developers are getting nervous at all the inventory piling up, maybe there's something going on here in Vancouver, its called a crash. The SMART money is gettin out fast while there are still suckers.

This all comes down to ONCE AGAIN, real estate agents dropping the ball and not protecting the interests of their clients and chasing the last few commissions left out there. If anyone here had taken any of the advice of agents on this thread and bought ANY GVRD real estate last year, they would now be underwater, and be continuing to finance a depreciating asset. Good thing you decided to wait. You just saved 25% from Onni.

[1.8tradoman]

one more thing CRS, 2001 prices are coming near you. Just be patient.
If your looking for references, we can discuss those on PM if you wish.

[Blinky]

CRS, nobody can predict the future.

That said, when the market hasn't been bubbling or bursting, the price of most housing can be roughly correlated to
a) a multiple of monthly rent
b) a multiple of annual median household income

Otherwise it tends to be unaffordable. People end up buying and living elsewhere. I think in Vancouver, the historic average price of a house has been 4-5 times annual income?! (a premium relative to most of the other parts of the country). You'd have to do some digging for historically correct numbers.

Right now, housing in the GVA is beyond this 4-5 time multiple, so income can either go up, or prices can come down. Doing one is easier than the other.

[Jackwimmer]

And what are you referencing from?

Just your opinion or have you something that you're hiding?

this is kinda like 1982 all over again

[CRS]

one more thing CRS, 2001 prices are coming near you. Just be patient.
If your looking for references, we can discuss those on PM if you wish.

I'll probably end up PMing you within the following year! hahaha looking for another dead time.

[CRS]

Is there any good online sites that allows for private sale?

[CRS]

So looking at mls.ca nothing has changed...

except a lot more houses for sale but no price drops...

jebus when will people learn

[1.8tradoman]

February 17, 2009
“It doesn’t matter what the market is doing, I don’t say whether or not it’s a good time to buy,” association chief economist Cameron Muir said in an interview Monday. “That being said, I would suspect investors are actively looking in the marketplace for bargains. If you compare today vs. a year ago, investing in real estate is more attractive than it was then.” Vancouver Sun


Anyone here wanna guess who this economist works for?

Its so blatantly transparent, I really hope that everyone in the spring will buy that condo they have been dreaming about. Especially Real estate agents who should really walk the talk and meet me at the next liquidation sale, and I want to see them putting in multiple offers with their own money. If they really believe what they preach, I hope to see Raybot, Realtor and Miss Crayon at the next presale, hey maybe this one http://lifeontheblock.ca/

[1.8tradoman]

I am looking to buy as well. I am going to do some free number crunching for those interested... here goes.

from the site http://lifeontheblock.ca/themoney/priceranges/

2 Bed + Den townhomes, 1,200 – 1,500 sq. ft, starting from the high $500,000’s
3 Bed townhomes, 1,600 – 1,700 sq. ft., starting from the mid $700,000’s
3 Bed townhomes w/ a finished 1 bedroom basement suite starting from the low $800,000’s

ok high $500,000? let's call it $589,000. Now click in the Canada Mortgage and Housing Company website Mortgage Calculator, here is the link.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/buho/buho_007.cfm

plug in the numbers that I would use based on my current financial situation...
$80,000 gross income
$15,000 down
4.35%
25 year amortization
100 tax
200 condo fee
100 heating
0 for debt

Press the button and presto! Oh uh, it says I can only afford a $300,000 house. What? A guy making $80,000 can't buy a 2 Bed + Den townhome?

But Don't worry, Mom and dad will co-sign my mortgage and my real estate agent will provide free service (that's what Raybot said), I'll borrow more downpayment on my credit card, and when I go to sleep tonight, I'll be dreaming about living in the best place on earth! Vancouver (gang-capital of Canada).

[VR6GTI]

who the fuck borrows for a down payment? If you cant afford the downpayment you cant afford the house.

[dubzz24]

who the fuck borrows for a down payment? If you cant afford the downpayment you cant afford the house.

That's his point. Also the fact that unless you receive some generous handouts, the average family making an average income can no where near afford what should be an average home.

[CRS]

That's his point. Also the fact that unless you receive some generous handouts, the average family making an average income can no where near afford what should be an average home.

:werd:

Basically the market is not reflecting the environment around it.

[flat6]

who the fuck borrows for a down payment? If you cant afford the downpayment you cant afford the house.

All of the United States of America... hahaha

[flat6]

Guys I had to chime in. I usually stay out of this shit but due to recent real estate transactions I will give you a heads up.

Market has declined, of course it has and it will. BUT...

Vancouver is a city that is going through major change, things that are affecting real estate prices are still in play like the Olympics for example. This is still keeping the market afloat when it should have dipped.

Vancouver also has waay to many major areas to predict a SINGLE up or down. Maybe in burnaby, Poco or what have you you may see a sharp decline in a 1 br 700 sq ft apartment BUT in DT vancouver prices are still high for the right location.

You are still paying 380K+ for a 535 sq ft apartment in Coal Harbour. Try finding anything cheaper than that. My point is that the location matters as well.

Not everything is taking a dive right now so the real estate agent is able to make sales without taking anybody to the cleaners.

I am not a real estate agent, in fact I just sued a developer/agent and won my case in North Vancouver for a pre-sale that was going south but I know that even across a bridge values change and certain types of land do not take a hit. Waterfront, etc...

I read this whole thread and came to the conclusion that most of you are right, all your points make some sense but they all apply to different places in Vancouver.

My favorite: Supply and Demand... 100% true - if there is too much property price goes down but again, in my waterfront example, do you think there is that much property left in Vancouver for the price to even budge?

Thanks for the read...

[1.8tradoman]

I have to respectfully disagree with you Flat6. Look at this chart: Remember this is updated to Q3 2008, I couldn't find the new release for Q4 of 2008 (not that the news will be better).

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_112555.pdf

Now look at which cities are leading the charge with double digit depreciation for 2008.

LA, Maimi, San Diego, and San Francisco. All cities NEXT to the WATER!

Why will Vancouver avoid this downturn? Olympics and shortage of land are your reasons.
Well the Olympics argument has been beat to death, we'll see in 2010 if the Olympics are going to make a difference.

Shortage of land, another fear based selling tactic that real estate agents use in selling property. Kinda like "Buy now or be priced out foreever".

If there was a shortage of land (prime coast line included) Why did Japan suffer almost 20 years of land asset depreciation? Japan is an island with a high ratio of coast property to inland property. Most of its major cities are along the coast line (waterfront) and consequently so are the major industries and ports. Now tell me with all this PRIME waterfront property in such high demand and a shortage of WATER-FRONT land, why did japan suffer 20 years of land depreciation?

Shortage of land argument is BS! It seems like a very sexy argument but it is not. Coastal cities in the US are leading fallout in real estate values in the US. The crash in Vancouver will slice thru all geographical areas, except the Olympic Village because it was built on RECLAIMED waterfront land and the athletes who stayed there will make it more valuable. (j\k).

PS- Ironic that we can create waterfront (shortage) when the need arises?

here's the link to japan land prices: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/R0oU1yyjvVI/AAAAAAAABnU/GQAkmzyDMQs/s1600-h/Japan-Land-Prices-Update-2007-11-RGB-176-10-10.png

[1.8tradoman]

who the fuck borrows for a down payment? If you cant afford the downpayment you cant afford the house.

Funny you would ask that, here's one guy on this site who thought about it :

http://www.revscene.net/forums/borrowing-invest-t469513.html

They allowed this type of mortgage for years... thats not funny.

[johny]

Well the Olympics argument has been beat to death, we'll see in 2010 if the Olympics are going to make a difference.[/url]

screw the Olympics. I bet half the countries that normally compete will cancel showing up next year due to lack of government and private funding... it'll be the worst showing olympics in a long time.

and lots of tourists will cancel their plane, hotel and rent bookings and not show up either due to being broke. anyone renting their place out for the Olympics, I hope you collected 100% cash upfront the day they booked, otherwise you're going to be kicked in the junk.

[SlySi]

wow..... you are one unhappy person....

[johny]

no, just realistic. and a tax payer.

[Great68]

I bet my buddy is feeling like an idiot now for waiting in line for 4 hours for presale on a 700sq ft unit in MAPLE FUCKING RIDGE.

[tool001]

what goes up, must come down

[ultra_man99]

I have a question for you all, I know that it is a subjective question but would like to know all your inputs since you all seem to be knowledgable in your own way.

I hear in media and other sources that the real estate prices will fall xx%. It does get confusing because some are referring to a xx% fall from its highest point while others say xx% from last year/quarter/month etc.

So my question is, how much will prices decline from its highest point? I ask this because I am in the market and have been for about 1.5 years. Luckily I did not buy last year but am considering something soon.

Thanks all.

[johny]

nobody will know untill it starts going back up again...

[1.8tradoman]

I have a question for you all, I know that it is a subjective question but would like to know all your inputs since you all seem to be knowledgable in your own way.

I hear in media and other sources that the real estate prices will fall xx%. It does get confusing because some are referring to a xx% fall from its highest point while others say xx% from last year/quarter/month etc.

So my question is, how much will prices decline from its highest point? I ask this because I am in the market and have been for about 1.5 years. Luckily I did not buy last year but am considering something soon.

Thanks all.

Well since I have all but chased out most of the real estate agents here, I will answer your question on their behalf.

Yes now is a good time to buy! Real estate values always go up and why pay your landlord's mortgage, stop throwing your money away. Interest rates are at historical lows so borrowing as much as you can now will insure that you can maximize your investment in the near future. Also we have the Olympics coming to Vancouver, and when all the rich asians and europeans see us on the world stage, they will buy vacation condo's which will drive up the real estate prices to unseen levels, double digit appreciation for another decade. We have a massive land shortage here in the GVRD, in fact we have the highest population densities north of the semiahmoo penisula, guaranteeing future land values. Plus Vancouver is almost always voted as the Best Place on Earth in many polls. We are a Lifestyle City, because we do not have a major manufactoring, banking, or agricultural industries. Look at Yaletown, with Mini dealership and health spa on the same block, its wonderful. Plus if you buy now, you won't have to pay any commission (that's what Raybot said). Don't worry about what's happening with the states, it won't effect us any because only 80% of our trade is with our neighbours in the south. We have social housing being built for the homeless at the Olympic Athletes Village for $1000 sq/ft., by comparison that bodes well for the future price of condos, because if we can afford to put low income families on prime reclaimed waterfront what will stop Vancouverites from buying even more expensive condo's for themselves? There's alot of real estate agents to choose from right now so you can select the best of the best, you might even find one with post secondary education, preferably with degree in economics, who understands the concept of supply vs. demand. This small drop in home prices is just a statistical blip and we see with all the positive factors listed that home prices will stablize and rise by Q4 of 2009 (10% up near the waterfront). This is a buyer's market, meaning that there is so much inventory out there you better start buying now before its too late and you get priced out forever. We hear lots of interest at open houses and it won't be long until bidding wars begin again. Spring is traditionally a good time to buy a house especially for Feng shui reasons. Vacancy rates are very low in Vancouver, so you can become a landlord and even draw an income from your house. Just look at Craigslist.ca and see the number of rentals properties have skyrocketed since summer 2008. There must be alot of renters out there because we have had net migration to BC since confederation. There are so many immigrants we cannot keep up with building enough condos for all these new people. When these new immigrants come here the first thing they buy is property. The professionals at real estate boards have the expertise to help you get into your new home, take advantage of the opportunities today!

[Blinky]

:lol @ Tradoman's post.

ultra_man, nobody really knows how much housing prices will fall from peak. A really really quick google indicates that local housing prices would need to drop some 50% from peak values to be a "normal" multiple of median income. We're already around 16% down from peak values.

Vancouver has always had a premium price of housing (IOW, the typical price of housing here is higher than the "normal" multiple of median income). I would still guesstimate that Vancouver has at least another 15-20% to go. Maybe (probably?!) more. But that's a wild guesstimate; best would be to do some more research.

[CRS]

I hope no one took 1.8tradoman's post literally.

:lol

[1.8tradoman]

The dam is starting to leak badly, when it finally breaks your going to see carnage...

http://blog.macleans.ca/2009/02/23/the-shocking-truth-about-the-value-of-your-home/

Get ready for an interesting spring for Vancouver real estate, I have my popcorn and soda ready for the main event...

[Synaptik]

At this rate, I'll actually be able to afford a condo in a couple of years. Can't wait.

[Bonka]

Sorry, but I have little sympathy for these buyers who appear to have more money than brains. These buyers (especially in today's market) are willing to contractually agree to purchase a presale before they have any proceeds in hand from the sale of their current residence, and then cry river when they can't sell their home to cover the deposit.

While I agree presales (and the parasitic amateur investors that seem to parallel these buildings) are a contributing factor for overinflated property values in the Lower Mainland, the current market turndown has yet to hit areas like the Downtown core head on at the moment. Stories of Buyers getting caught up in the presale limbo are likely an anomoly and don't fully reflect the entire market.

The spring will indeed be interesting to follow.

[Eatman]

The dam is starting to leak badly, when it finally breaks your going to see carnage...

http://blog.macleans.ca/2009/02/23/the-shocking-truth-about-the-value-of-your-home/

Get ready for an interesting spring for Vancouver real estate, I have my popcorn and soda ready for the main event...

thanks for the link, very interesting read!

[Jackwimmer]

boy im tellin ya the economy is bad, its in rough shape - jay leno

i guess the 4-5 year prediction i had was a lil off :haha:

[1.8tradoman]

thanks for the link, very interesting read!

Just doing what a real estate agent would do for you, and that is protect your interests and provide pertinent information about real estate. There's a PR battle going on right now and information coming out of both sides should be considered unreliable at best. The reason why there is so much confusion about statistical information is because the CREA (real estate boards) will tweak the numbers by changing boundaries, categories, definitions, and time periods to massage the numbers to promote their cause.

I don't believe it is a full out conspiracy theory but these guys are really turning on the rhetoric and trying to save their members jobs. Its very transparent. I don't blame them. I have a problem with salespeople putting on the full court press to relatively naive people to chase down the last few commissions.

Almost reminds me of being in Puerto Vallarta and getting harrassed by Bilingual mexicans who want you to buy time shares at every corner. "Hola! you want to have free money amigo? Buy timeshare for your family and no commission man. $500 peso's if you sign up now, Only 10 shares left! Buy now or be priced out forever."

[1.8tradoman]

Vancouver SunMarch 17, 2009

"An artist's rendering of the Beasley, at the northeast corner of Homer and Smithe in downtown Vancouver. Prices are being cut by a minimum of 22 per cent because of reduced construction costs.
Photograph by: Vancouver Sun files, .Amacon, the Vancouver developer building The Beasley project downtown, is the latest builder offering discounts to buyers.

Amacon senior vice-president Bob Cabral said the company is cutting prices by a minimum of 22 per cent, from $100,000 to over $250,000 per unit, because of reduced construction costs.

"We are in a very different market than a year ago; when we negotiated our construction costs and realized the savings we made, we were happy to pass on that savings," Cabral said.

Cabral added that Amacon views this sale as a unique case that won't necessarily influence the overall market.

Cameron McNeil, president of MAC Marketing Solutions, which is handling the sales of Amacom's remaining units in the Beasley, said there are too few apartments left and such limited supply of units in development he doesn't believe the reductions will set any new benchmarks for downtown pricing."

"As for my comments about the downtown core, it remains true, as the downtown core has not dropped in value as much as the outskirts and yes, a house with land has still held it's value more than condo's in general. I'm sure you are retarded enough to find the anomoly and point it out here since you feel that you are god, so feel free to do so. Also, I did not rule out a drop in the market." Quote from Revscene Realtors Association.

Developers dumping units (downtown) surprise, surprise. Not taking a jab at anyone btw.

[1.8tradoman]

So 1.8tradoman, when is the best time to buy?

*edit:
Also looking for a good site that I can browse through listings! Looking for houses mainly.. Not so much apartments or condos.


well if you wanted to buy at Beasley (or beastly, i like to call it) at the time, I just saved you $250,000 on that condo unit. Imagine the pain you would be in right now?

Still another year to go... please don't buy anything people, you have been warned. They are doing as much as possible to entice the FTB's into the market because without them there is no market. If you are a qualified FTB, don't get sucked in. It's very difficult not to get emotionally involved in real estate but there's no place for it, especially when we are talking about large amounts of money.

[Feint*]

LOL where are the realtors now

[johny]

I saw something today for fixed 5 year @ 3.8%. mortages are getting a little lower. still need housing to drop a bunch though.

[Synarchist]

BUMP this thread! great info!

[Ride]

I was wondering what happened to this thread. I like to see more from 1.8tradoman and Raybot both of them seem to have some good info on the market.

[SlySi]

Nothing else to really say.
Prices seem to leveled off nicely....... People arent making mad money in real estate anymore. For the ones that did. Good for them..
And the prediction of the sky falling 30-40% has not happened or happened yet.

[Realtor]

Bump.... I haven't been on this board for a while now and I'm just curious what 1.8's thoughts are about the market now. I'm sure everyone can see that the market has not dropped to 2001 levels and has even met or surpassed the 2008 highs now. I just feel sorry for anyone that wanted to buy and actually thought that 1.8 is "god."

[SlySi]

Bump.... I haven't been on this board for a while now and I'm just curious what 1.8's thoughts are about the market now. I'm sure everyone can see that the market has not dropped to 2001 levels and has even met or surpassed the 2008 highs now. I just feel sorry for anyone that wanted to buy and actually thought that 1.8 is "god."

He sure was entertaining at best...

At the time of his rant, there were some really good deals on homes.
Hopefully, it didnt effect the people who really wanted to buy a home to live in. Quite sad if he actually did the reverse and costed people money instead.

But then again, with the winter coming up... home sales should dip again...

[Realtor]

He sure was entertaining at best...

At the time of his rant, there were some really good deals on homes.
Hopefully, it didnt effect the people who really wanted to buy a home to live in. Quite sad if he actually did the reverse and costed people money instead.

But then again, with the winter coming up... home sales should dip again...


That he was.... ahahahh

Yes there were some good deals on homes during his rants, but he also was sure that the market here would tank and he even stated around march or so of this year that the market would tank 30 to 40 percent. I don't think he would have bought from his strong viewpoints and I hope he wasn't just trying to get everyone to sell at a major loss just to try to pick up some deals himself.

As for winter coming up, usually the market does dip a bit in the winter, but this year is so tough to say because:

- People want to buy before the olympics,
- Interest rates are really low and "they say" that they will keep them that way until spring, although they have been known to raise interest rates at any given time
- Everyone keeps saying that we are coming out of a V-shaped recession strong and that BC will lead the charge
- People want to buy before the HST kicks in to save some money

And just for 1.8's sake, here are the other sides of the coin:

- Olympics may not be all that
- Our recovery may be optimistic and our Government is in debt
- When the HST kicks in, there could be less demand and prices could come down.

Overall though, I think consumer confidence is a lot stronger nowadays, but it's tough to say whether it's justified or not.

Once again people, do your own research and make educated decisions. Don't believe anyone that "KNOWS" how the market is going to be like because there are so many factors that have an affect.

[CRS]

Well, it still pretty premature to judge on how the market is doing considering spring and summer has sales hikes and due to the olympics, nothing is really certain. I wouldn't judge or say that the market is rebounded until a year after the olympics. I still think the market has a way to drop.

[unit]

That he was.... ahahahh

Yes there were some good deals on homes during his rants, but he also was sure that the market here would tank and he even stated around march or so of this year that the market would tank 30 to 40 percent. I don't think he would have bought from his strong viewpoints and I hope he wasn't just trying to get everyone to sell at a major loss just to try to pick up some deals himself.

As for winter coming up, usually the market does dip a bit in the winter, but this year is so tough to say because:

- People want to buy before the olympics,
- Interest rates are really low and "they say" that they will keep them that way until spring, although they have been known to raise interest rates at any given time
- Everyone keeps saying that we are coming out of a V-shaped recession strong and that BC will lead the charge
- People want to buy before the HST kicks in to save some money

And just for 1.8's sake, here are the other sides of the coin:

- Olympics may not be all that
- Our recovery may be optimistic and our Government is in debt
- When the HST kicks in, there could be less demand and prices could come down.

Overall though, I think consumer confidence is a lot stronger nowadays, but it's tough to say whether it's justified or not.

Once again people, do your own research and make educated decisions. Don't believe anyone that "KNOWS" how the market is going to be like because there are so many factors that have an affect.

consumer confidence is a funny thing... imo it is unjustified.
the market is up, but who knows why? :confused::confused:
people have short term memories.. the recession hit hard less than a year ago.

[Z3guy]

^ I agree, people are buying because of ultra low interest rates and fear of the HST.....from an investment standpoint (not lifestyle), I think the market will dip again in the back half of 2010. I would be less concerned about buying dirt Vs a pie in the sky....I think downtown condos will be hit the hardest.

[Westcoast67]

when 2 bedroom apts drop to under 200k I'll go looking.

also when mortgate rates drop more.. bank rates are way too high vs canadian bank prime. banks prime is droping, but lending rates arn't for new buyers they are still 4%+. while people who bought a mortage last year are paying around 2.75% now. every time prime drops they just tack more onto the lending rates prime ++ so new buyers don't win. only current holders.

Prime lending rate and long term mortgage rates are not directly correlated. 5 yr mortgages are under 4% right now. That is ridiculously low historically speaking, but variables are available for prime flat 2.25% if you really think its a great idea to bet on that.

EDIT: To add fuel to the fire, the financial markets are up 40-60% from their lows depending on which index you look at. Econ 101 states equity markets are a leading indicator while home sales are a lagging indicator. We will see if that rings true in this specific economic condition.

[CRS]

Prime lending rate and long term mortgage rates are not directly correlated. 5 yr mortgages are under 4% right now. That is ridiculously low historically speaking, but variables are available for prime flat 2.25% if you really think its a great idea to bet on that.

EDIT: To add fuel to the fire, the financial markets are up 40-60% from their lows depending on which index you look at. Econ 101 states equity markets are a leading indicator while home sales are a lagging indicator. We will see if that rings true in this specific economic condition.

But aren't you correlating the world's finances vs. a specific market? If that's the case, I don't see how this could be any indicator in a city like Vancouver.

[michlele21]

Interest rate right now are quit low. It is the bet time to grab it now since the market is down.

[CRS]

Interest rate right now are quit low. It is the bet time to grab it now since the market is down.

Yeah, thanks but no thanks.

I'd rather take my advice from someone who can at the very least spell words correctly.

[1.8tradoman]

Wow, reading some of the new comments reminds me of having to weed the lawn after you come back from a long vacation. So lets get the lawnmower and the weedkiller out and get to work.

1. I slimmed thru and saw the word "rant" associated with my posts, Sorry I wasn't ranting, just trying to answer a question posed by a revscene member.

2. The question was specifically related to "condos", please have a look at the statistical packages posted by local real estate boards in the GVRD, and look at the how the stats are generated, there are historical annual trends that happen regardless of whether your in a bear or bull market place. For example it rains alot more in november than in august.

3. Misquoted me again Realtor, down 40%? I predicted 20% down in 2009 for CONDOS, and guess what, I came pretty close, Condo's down 16% April 2009, but the year is not over yet so lets wait till the end of the year... (WHY don't I see any bold predictions from the resident REALTORS on this board?) Still no one took my bet...

4. Please tell me ONE good financial and logical argument based on fundamentals that would make buying a condo a good sound investment...

5. I can troll the internet and find good news and bad news to suit my argument, for example look at this little gem.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/industrial-land-prices-fall-in-vancouver/article1357814/

The fact remains buying a $400k pie in the sky condo, Does not make alot of financial sense.

6. Historical (some people may even say manipulated) LOW interests are keeping this market afloat, please tell me where do you think interest rates will be in a few years? And what do you think is going to happen when FTB's start getting squeezed? You think they are going to want to buy a bigger pie in the sky, with already maxed out payments?

7. The HST has little effect on the condo market, this is yet another very smart advertising plan to get the next greater Fool into the lineup and buy into the hype. The threshold for HST is $525,000 , purchaser's of homes up to 525,000 would pay no more tax on average than under the current PST. If you are buying a condo for investment purposes that is more than half million dollars you are ABSOLUTELY crazy, there I said it!

8. I admit 2001 prices (adjusted after inflation of course! no one is going to say that we are going to be able to buy a 25cent ice-cream cone again) are a little far fetched but this little hiccup was certainly a surprise to me, but what was also very surprising is the Bank of Canada for the first time in its history came out and actually TOLD the the market that it would hold the interest rate at 0.25% until Q1-Q2 2010. There has never been a time where the Bank of Canada has told the market what it intends to do with the interest rates. This really says something about how concerned the government is about the overall health of the economy.

[1.8tradoman]

Bump.... I haven't been on this board for a while now and I'm just curious what 1.8's thoughts are about the market now. I'm sure everyone can see that the market has not dropped to 2001 levels and has even met or surpassed the 2008 highs now. I just feel sorry for anyone that wanted to buy and actually thought that 1.8 is "god."

You as a professional real estate agent has yet to come up with a good sound arguement to buy a condo for investment purposes, why don't you go to the bank and get yourself pre approved mortgage and come down to where I work and put an offer on 1 of 11, empty penthouse units in the the Azure development (new west) where I work? They start at 1.3 million dollars, can you rent that out to cover your mortgage payment? I promise NO ONE will feel sorry for you, I would be the first to buy you a house warming gift, probably something to go with your granite countertops.

I never said I was "god" ever, lets try to keep this informative rather than throwing insults around...

[1.8tradoman]

Also you can save on the commission because the buyer doesn't have to pay it!

[johny]

there is still massive lay offs every month in BC. we are still in the middle of the recession and nowhere near coming out of it.

prices and sales might have gone up a bit in the last couple months. But so has unemployment. people can't keep houses if they don't have jobs. and people can't keep houses when the interest rates shoot back up. it'll crash again soon.

[tool001]

i need some feedback from you guys...
recently started looking... i have narrowed down my choices..(non are in downtown area, mostly burnaby - NW)
what im trying to figure out is. constuction type.
Low rise complex (3-4 floor)
Foundation: Concrete Perimeter
Exterior Finish Brick, Mixed, Vinyl

vs
high rise
Foundation Concrete Perimeter
Exterior Finish Concrete

Does it matter, would you rather buy one over other. Im thinking if i go for low rise, in the future they are chances of forking out $ for new roof.. As oppose to high rise. Would you pick one over another or what could be chances special assestments in High rise? anything else im missing here?
thks

[johny]

^ I would consider the words earthquake and fire...

personaly I would never want to live more then 2-3 stories high.

then again you could just be 2-3 stories up in the highrise.

[Tame]

The market will never really crash.
The lower mainland, is where all the jobs are at, its also one of the nicest, cleanest, safest cities in the world. As long as all these remain unchanged, and the jobs are here. Then the value will stay high, because everyone will need to live here. No one wants to commute a hour or two one way every day. And everyone needs a job in the city.

[Presto]

Having lived in both, I would say my preference is the high rise. Low-rises, in most cases, suck for sound proofing due to the wood frame construction. If your neighbor is loud, you'll be able to hear them. If you do choose to go low-rise, then make sure to get the top floor, so you don't have to deal with the sound of footsteps above you.



i need some feedback from you guys...
recently started looking... i have narrowed down my choices..(non are in downtown area, mostly burnaby - NW)
what im trying to figure out is. constuction type.
Low rise complex (3-4 floor)
Foundation: Concrete Perimeter
Exterior Finish Brick, Mixed, Vinyl

vs
high rise
Foundation Concrete Perimeter
Exterior Finish Concrete

Does it matter, would you rather buy one over other. Im thinking if i go for low rise, in the future they are chances of forking out $ for new roof.. As oppose to high rise. Would you pick one over another or what could be chances special assestments in High rise? anything else im missing here?
thks

[shollos]

Even with today's new low-rise there is still that problem? Or is this for mostly older low-rise?

Having lived in both, I would say my preference is the high rise. Low-rises, in most cases, suck for sound proofing due to the wood frame construction. If your neighbor is loud, you'll be able to hear them. If you do choose to go low-rise, then make sure to get the top floor, so you don't have to deal with the sound of footsteps above you.

[GLOW]

Even with today's new low-rise there is still that problem? Or is this for mostly older low-rise?

i have friends with newer low rises. sound isn't as bad as older ones, but the issue with noise from above (if you're not on the top floor) still exists. really depends on your neighbour above IMO. 1 friend had a family upstairs and would always hear little footsteps of kids running down the hall during the day. at another place we never heard a thing.

[hkRicer]

The market will never really crash.
The lower mainland, is where all the jobs are at, its also one of the nicest, cleanest, safest cities in the world. As long as all these remain unchanged, and the jobs are here. Then the value will stay high, because everyone will need to live here. No one wants to commute a hour or two one way every day. And everyone needs a job in the city.

I think that is very true. Not to mention, alot of people brought their house with no financing needed. I know too many people brought their house/condo in Richmond/Downtown with cash. It's not easy to borrow money from the bank in Canada, unlike US. And the demand for housing is extremely high! I don't see the market will go up in the next few year, but it won't crash for sure.

[03c0upe]

what are the real estate predictions for the lower mainland for this winter or early 2011

[1.8tradoman]

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Olympic+village+buyers+trying+back+purchases/3613103/story.html

[6793026]

Let me do some math for you all.

you want to buy a place that's 300K, which is decent size apartment (really big but old, or really new but small) property. If you want to do an INVESTMENT, don't even think about it.

300K, let's say in 2 years your place goes up to 350K, when you consider lawyers fees, commission to realtor (even at super cheap commission or minimal fees)and HST, you are WELL into 50K of your profit.

you have to remember, in those 2 years, even if you were lucky enough to FIND a tenant to pay for say... 1300 hundred of rent (better be a super nice apartment, but at 300k, good luck), your mortgage is going to be at 1500. you are short 200 bucks a month + property management fees + property taxes, sewage...etc.

within those two years, you would have forked out well over 5000-8000 dollars. For those who are home buyers, please be sure to sit down with your Realtor and tell them your short term goals. If they say NOT to buy your dream 500k apartment and trying to rent it out to make a profit... don't do it.

[Bonka]

I'm sure these very buyers wanting to back out on their contracts now that the market is on the downturn wouldn't make a peep if they could flip them for profit.

You assume far more risk buying a presale and considering the huge PR machine Rennie used to push this development at a time when the market is nearing its peak it's not surprising to hear this as the market softens. There are always deficiencies in buying a presale I'm not even sure how that was an oversight for these buyers.

[johny]

Let me do some math for you all.


300K, let's say in 2 years your place goes up to 350K, when you consider lawyers fees, commission to realtor (even at super cheap commission or minimal fees)and HST, you are WELL into 50K of your profit.

what?... probably around 10k not 50. however in 2 years it'll still be worth 300 if you're lucky. I wouldn't count on any profit from short term reselling this way.



you have to remember, in those 2 years, even if you were lucky enough to FIND a tenant to pay for say... 1300 hundred of rent (better be a super nice apartment, but at 300k, good luck), your mortgage is going to be at 1500. you are short 200 bucks a month + property management fees + property taxes, sewage...etc.

within those two years, you would have forked out well over 5000-8000 dollars. For those who are home buyers, please be sure to sit down with your Realtor and tell them your short term goals. If they say NOT to buy your dream 500k apartment and trying to rent it out to make a profit... don't do it.

so you are investing 2-300 a month and getting around 800? a month in equity (and that's if the place doesn't go up in value which it will over time). a ~300% return per month.

right now my money gets me about 1.5% / year...

[6793026]

there are a lot of people have only a 3-4 years time investment frame and it's unreasonable.

investing 200-300 a month just in difference in the mortgage
+ 200 in property management fees
+ 120 in property taxes
+ sewage of 40 dollars
you're deep into a hole for 600-800 bucks a month. just to HOPE for a 10% profit which in reality is ZERO.

[joemanhas]

Downtown Vancouver I believe is a solid investment .. They say that real estate is like an earth quake it explodes from the inside out.. When the market booms closer you are to the core more that it generally rises..When the market slows down its usually from the outside in.. downtown will always have value and more value when the market is hot...

Joe Manhas
Sutton West Coast Realty
http://www.bchomez.com

[03c0upe]

What are the predictions for the next few months, should buyers wait?

[Bonka]

It really depends. I've had clients tell me they regret being too passive in putting serious offers in while in the meantime prices kept climbing for what they were looking for and now they're further behind than before. At the same time I've closed a couple of deals this year where both my clients and I didn't think we could at the price we went in with so mileage does vary from listing to listing.

Typically the winter months are the slowest and tend to yield a slight advantage for the buyer. Apparently 2011 is still suppose to see a slight increase in price..
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[g2surgen]

http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/12/real_estate/canada_housing_bust.fortune/index.htm

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Olympic+village+buyers+trying+back+purchases/3613103/story.html

[03c0upe]

yeah, i read else wheres not a buyers/seller market. it right inbetween, whatever that is lol