Harvey Specter
02-15-2010, 04:23 AM
By Aileen McCabe, Canwest News ServiceFebruary 15, 2010 4:02 AM
The news Monday that China didn't quite overtake Japan to become the world's second-largest economy after the U.S. will do little to quiet debate over whether it already has become a superpower.
It already has claimed Germany's crown as the world's largest exporter and it seems certain China will continue to topple records and gather strength for the foreseeable future. The sheer size of the country ensures it.
PricewaterhouseCoopers, for instance, is now predicting China will replace the United States as the No. 1 economy by 2020.
But does becoming a world financial supremo make China a superpower?
The Chinese argue often and loudly: "No."
"No matter what our economic ranking is, we still have to face the fact that our per capita GDP is still behind that of 100 countries in the world. We have a large population, a weak economic foundation, relatively fewer resources and many poor people. These are still the basic national conditions of China," Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters when he rolled out China's 2009 economic data in mid-January.
"According to the UN standard -- that is, $1 per day -- there are still 150 million poor people in China. That is China's reality. Therefore, despite the increase in our GDP and economic strength, we still have to recognize that China is still a developing country," Ma said.
To confound that argument, however, is the fact China can now stymie international initiatives, such as the Copenhagen conference on climate change, and it can sideline an elite "club," such as the G8 because it is not a member and elevate the G20 to the status of the most important world forum because it is included.
Sean Rein, founder and managing director of China Market Research Group in Shanghai, thinks China emerged from this recession as a superpower, but unlike any we now know.
"There is a new paradigm for how you define what is a superpower," Rein said in an interview.
"Superpower has nothing to do with per capita income, it's about how much influence you have on the global stage.
"China is a superpower, and if it wants to project its influence it can do that through bilateral and multilateral trade. They don't have to send missiles everywhere and they don't have to have Chinese bases all over the world, in essentially enemy territory, in the same way as the United States has done."
China vaulted into the superpower strata both quickly and assertively and Rein predicts the country's new status will make it less willing than ever to accept criticism of its Communist government and its policies.
At the moment, China does not hesitate to ream out world leaders for hosting the Dalai Lama or dress-down a head of government, including Prime Minister Stephen Harper, for taking too long to visit.
But it is starting to understand that diplomacy can work in its favour, Rein said, and toning down some of the rhetoric that goes down so badly in the rest of the world.
Rein also sees signs of China recalibrating its message in the current set-to with Google over cyber attacks and censorship.
Instead of Beijing's Foreign Affairs establishment immediately jumping on Google's charges as an affront to its national interest and pride, as might have been expected, Rein saw it as noteworthy that the first reaction was from the Ministry of Commerce, just as it would be in a Western country involved in a commercial dispute.
"I think that with Google (Beijing) really showed new-found maturity," he said. "Instead of threatening to shut Google down or just shutting it down, they said they would allow Google to continue to operate as long as they follow the laws.
"They are getting the message that they need to change their global marketing-propaganda strategy."
© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun
The news Monday that China didn't quite overtake Japan to become the world's second-largest economy after the U.S. will do little to quiet debate over whether it already has become a superpower.
It already has claimed Germany's crown as the world's largest exporter and it seems certain China will continue to topple records and gather strength for the foreseeable future. The sheer size of the country ensures it.
PricewaterhouseCoopers, for instance, is now predicting China will replace the United States as the No. 1 economy by 2020.
But does becoming a world financial supremo make China a superpower?
The Chinese argue often and loudly: "No."
"No matter what our economic ranking is, we still have to face the fact that our per capita GDP is still behind that of 100 countries in the world. We have a large population, a weak economic foundation, relatively fewer resources and many poor people. These are still the basic national conditions of China," Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters when he rolled out China's 2009 economic data in mid-January.
"According to the UN standard -- that is, $1 per day -- there are still 150 million poor people in China. That is China's reality. Therefore, despite the increase in our GDP and economic strength, we still have to recognize that China is still a developing country," Ma said.
To confound that argument, however, is the fact China can now stymie international initiatives, such as the Copenhagen conference on climate change, and it can sideline an elite "club," such as the G8 because it is not a member and elevate the G20 to the status of the most important world forum because it is included.
Sean Rein, founder and managing director of China Market Research Group in Shanghai, thinks China emerged from this recession as a superpower, but unlike any we now know.
"There is a new paradigm for how you define what is a superpower," Rein said in an interview.
"Superpower has nothing to do with per capita income, it's about how much influence you have on the global stage.
"China is a superpower, and if it wants to project its influence it can do that through bilateral and multilateral trade. They don't have to send missiles everywhere and they don't have to have Chinese bases all over the world, in essentially enemy territory, in the same way as the United States has done."
China vaulted into the superpower strata both quickly and assertively and Rein predicts the country's new status will make it less willing than ever to accept criticism of its Communist government and its policies.
At the moment, China does not hesitate to ream out world leaders for hosting the Dalai Lama or dress-down a head of government, including Prime Minister Stephen Harper, for taking too long to visit.
But it is starting to understand that diplomacy can work in its favour, Rein said, and toning down some of the rhetoric that goes down so badly in the rest of the world.
Rein also sees signs of China recalibrating its message in the current set-to with Google over cyber attacks and censorship.
Instead of Beijing's Foreign Affairs establishment immediately jumping on Google's charges as an affront to its national interest and pride, as might have been expected, Rein saw it as noteworthy that the first reaction was from the Ministry of Commerce, just as it would be in a Western country involved in a commercial dispute.
"I think that with Google (Beijing) really showed new-found maturity," he said. "Instead of threatening to shut Google down or just shutting it down, they said they would allow Google to continue to operate as long as they follow the laws.
"They are getting the message that they need to change their global marketing-propaganda strategy."
© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun