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Vancouver Off-Topic / Current EventsThe off-topic forum for Vancouver, funnies, non-auto centered discussions, WORK SAFE. While the rules are more relaxed here, there are still rules. Please refer to sticky thread in this forum.
My bookmarks are Reddit and REVscene, in that order
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[Time] 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal
Just to quickly sum up, it's about how not only moore's law is exponential, but processing power, scientific advancement and progress are all exponential as well. It eventually comes to a point where humanity builds a machine that is smart enough to improve itself. It's not only inevitable, it's imminent, and happening a lot sooner than you think.
If we are not able to ask skeptical questions, to interrogate those who tell us that something is true; to be skeptical of those in authority, then we're up for grabs..
-Carl Sagan
(told to me by the stupidest person in the world)...
'Yeah, i've been to taco time before, but i got in trouble...I had a Mexican girlfriend who wanted to go to a mexican restaurant for our anniversery, so i took her to Taco Time"
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Unfortunately, it's not going to happen that way, because the processors in computers are limited by the medium itself, silicon, as well as heat.
Until semiconductors change to a different medium altogether, Moore's Law is limited.
That's true, but so far they've ALWAYS found a way to pack those transistors smaller. A good example is double-patterning.
Not only that, but there are other mediums that just haven't been put into mainstream production. For example, physicists are experimenting with optical transistors now. Perhaps in a decade we'll look back on our vintage silicon machines and wonder how primitive it was.
As for machines getting too smart, that is a possibility. Terminator 2 (one of my favourite movies) anyone?
To be honest, imo the biggest thing stopping us (human progress) right now is the US Patent system. The fact that a system exists where people can buy patents they have no intention of using, then suing the crap out of anyone who tries to innovate really screws up progress. They need to redo this system. Yet another reason why USA is falling behind. On the other hand, this can also spur innovation, such as the PNG format (when Compuserve tried to sue anyone who used GIF), and now WebM vs H.264.
As for indefinite lifespan, it's definitely happening. Every time they find a cure for a disease, the average human lifespan goes up by a tiny bit. The thing is that living long is no good if you're too old/frail to do anything, so hopefully they'll find a way to reverse the effects of aging as well. But then this will definitely lead to an overpopulation problem, so they'll need a way to cap your reproductive capabilities. But then you might end up with a situation similar to Children of Men. Of course, you must also realize that there's no such thing as "immortality" at this point. For example, even if there were no diseases, you could still get hit by a bus. So there's no such thing as "true immortality"
No idea where that rant just came from. I feel like Charlie Sheen. What a torpedo of truth. I love Wikipedia.
That's true, but so far they've ALWAYS found a way to pack those transistors smaller. A good example is double-patterning.
Not only that, but there are other mediums that just haven't been put into mainstream production. For example, physicists are experimenting with optical transistors now. Perhaps in a decade we'll look back on our vintage silicon machines and wonder how primitive it was.
The main problem is still heat and the current medium itself, regardless of dual layers.
Yes, there are other mediums, but the risk vs cost to jump into a brand new medium altogether is very high, so high that no chip manufacturer has taken this huge risk and switch completely.
FYI, I was working in the semiconductor industry for 4 years, doing R&D on materials 1 to 2 generations ahead of what is was currently on the market at that time (2009). Some of the materials I worked with included Low-k dielectric which was already a big improvement on regular silicon.
Checking on wikipedia, they already have High-k dielectric now.
If we are not able to ask skeptical questions, to interrogate those who tell us that something is true; to be skeptical of those in authority, then we're up for grabs..
-Carl Sagan
Good read! Kind of scary but it's true how every year, you can buy a computer that's twice as fast and twice as powerful for the same price the year before.
Being immortal is a bit farfetched though. Transferring your mind onto a machine so you can live forever. I guess only time can tell.
My bookmarks are Reddit and REVscene, in that order
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In regards to aging, we already know the cause. It's shortened telomeres. And we've found cases in animals where telomeres don't get shortened. Find a way to integrate that into human bodies, and aging stops.
I think you guys are thinking too small. Right now, we are the mechanism that is improving computer power and the grand unified theory. We sleep, we eat, we relax, have relationships. That's all wasted time. We take time to grow up, learn in university and even then, our cross-person communication is imperfect, not all information, theories are analyzed by all the potential processing power we have.
The current manufacturing type of silicon-based transistors (even with duping) is just a matter of trial and error. Ditto with graphene and quantum computing. The singularity is the point in which the AI has the ability and resources in which to improve upon itself. This is when the AI can start theorizing and testing and re-invent itself in new hardware. It's no longer bound by just the current tech trend.
Let me put it this way. This 2045 prediction could be wrong, it could be 2145 or even 2245. The point is that it's coming and eventually an AI is going to ponder the question "is humanity worth keeping around?"
Let me put it this way. This 2045 prediction could be wrong, it could be 2145 or even 2245. The point is that it's coming and eventually an AI is going to ponder the question "is humanity worth keeping around?"
I can't remember where it is, it may have even been a TED talk but there was a fantastic doc that discussed how important the initial question was for AI. I know when I was in Uni we discussed the concept as well, that what we initially programmed AI to be used for would greatly impact how it came to view humanity and thus it was more important to develop "kind" or helper AI then utilize it to be efficient or calculating.
I don't know how that will hold together down the line, but I have friends who work in computer programing and engineering and while we already have a great deal of Simulated Intelligence (the Cleverbot is an example of that but there's other more subtle ones as well, many of which actually are used in the gaming industry) but they swear we'll have a legitimate AI inside of our lifetimes.
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My take on the future is this... human will probably never discover way to stop aging, or never find an economically viable solution to do it biologically.
However, with the advancement in robotic parts and organs, we might reach to a stage that, every single organ can be replaced with robotic counterparts. In a sense, all human become bio-robots and very little resources except energy is consumed. Human cease to exist as the way we know currently in exchange for eternal life... making previously impossible stuff like inter-galactic journey possible and brilliant scientists making infinite progresses.
My take on the future is this... human will probably never discover way to stop aging, or never find an economically viable solution to do it biologically.
We already know how to stop aging it's just not 1. good economics (Aging = Big Money for Big Medicine) and 2. not mainstream science and 3. requires adopting a VERY different mind set to life, the world and everything
And 4. people are fucking lazy, most of us can't even be bothered to eat well despite knowing that that will greatly extend our lives, we drink and smoke knowing these things limit our life span, we don't excersise enough even knowing that will help us live longer. Most humans have access to the keys at least to a LONGER life and don't take them.
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~ Just another noob looking for a clue
Sometimes we tend to be in despair when the person we love leaves us, but the truth is, it's not our loss, but theirs, for they left the only person who couldn't give up on them.
Make the effort and take the risk..
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't." - Eleanor Roosevelt
It will be interesting to see how exponential growth and creation from an artificial intelligence will look like since it is completely independent from evolution. Or at least, removed from the same impasses that effect organic beings.
But the real fear of singularity for me is that loss of control. When we cease to be the agents of our own creations, what would we really do? Would we fear what we have created and destroy? Or will we be like a parent, unable to control a child, but simply guide it through its own developmental path.
Wonder if life would be worth living if you could live to be 1000 years old but knowing that u can't take any chances. No adrenaline rushes/new risky things to excite u with at the risk of being killed.
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