Real Estate Downturn?

[ostampflee]

If prices do come down, I dont think it'll be more than 5-10% and the market will bounce 2-3 years after that. Don't wait, just buy what you can really afford. Look for value, we love our house, but we also purchased it as we believed it had the most upside... great street, nice architecture, what could be a beautiful yard, and it needed a bit of work. I waited 3 years, the end result, I ended up paying twice what I could have. My house sold for $230k two years ago and $130k two years before that.

I'm extremely happy that I'm paying historic low interest rates for the next 5 years... it just means I'm paying principle off faster.

[MidnightMechanic]

Another possibly 'weak' bit of advise that may help; make weekly payments, not biweekly. It sounds laughable, but the intrest that accrues on an extra 7 days per payment, can really add up. Especially if you're paying $500+k, and for 25+ years. Get your mortgage agent to crunch the numbers.

[ostampflee]

Good advice! Weekly payments (payment*12/52) would save me approx $15k over the life of the mortgage. Accelerated weekly payments (payment/4) are saving me $150k but I end up paying I think an extra $2000 a year.

A good mortgage broker really helps, don't borrow from a big bank!

[aspect]

I like how RS has changed in the past 4 years, haha.

Anyway, I am also scoping for a house/condo early-mid next year. The market cooling off a bit is great news for me, especially considering the same thing is happening in vancouver (where we are looking). I don't expect a serious drop in prices but at least sellers will have to be a bit more realistic.

[Enraged]

recommendations on local brokers?

[ostampflee]

I had two different brokers (yeah, I switched during closing)... I liked Hans @ Invis (I think thats what his name was) better. His office is on the street that runs parallel to the PatBay right off of Quadra.

Looking back, I didn't like my realtor nearly as much... we wasted a lot of time and opportunity not looking in Sooke like I wanted to begin with.

[sixthgear]

I use Select Mortgage. Deenu at the Goldstream location.

[Benny95TA]

Originally Posted by Enraged

recommendations on local brokers?

One of my oldest friends is a broker. He just moved to Vancouver, but he can still help you out if you are interested. He's helped some friends of mine even though he new he wasn't going to make any $ from it. Send me a PM if you want his contact info.

[projectcivic]

I think we will see a correction here in Victoria but for those people who think the market here will crash and house prices will drop below $250,000 for a house. Keep dreaming, its not going to happen. My mom was showing me a graph (she is a realtor) showing the house pricing trends over the past 25 years. It showed 2 corrections in that time, one correction was 3% and the other was 6% I think. That means if that trend was to happen here at a 6% correction, we would see a $450,000 house going now for $423,000. Still not a crash if you ask me. Houses here in Victoria are still selling fast if they are priced correctly.You just don't see the deal where someone listed there house at $600,000 (worth $450,000) and selling in 48hours.
4 years ago when we were right in the huge spike in prices my mom told me there was a aprox. only 1000 houses on the market here in Victoria so choices were few so people with crappy houses could ask what ever they wanted. Well right now there is something close to 4800 on the market. So if your not pricing it right, it won't show and therefore not sell.

[mr.slave]

im wondering what soaring oil prices will do to realestate not in the town cores..

[sixthgear]

Originally Posted by Benny95TA

One of my oldest friends is a broker. He just moved to Vancouver, but he can still help you out if you are interested. He's helped some friends of mine even though he new he wasn't going to make any $ from it. Send me a PM if you want his contact info.

Interesting that he wouldn't make $ from it. The brokers generally get paid by the lender, not the client.

[boxeraddict]

Originally Posted by Great68

You couldn't even fit a queen sized bed in the Master Bedroom of a typical suite at Dockside.

And if only people could see how shitty these things were actually built (Like I have), they'd be running away...

I'd be worried about how high the strata fees will be to maintain all of the enviro-friendly features, and what the assessments will be when that stuff breaks down and needs replacing.

My building might not water the plants with our own sewage but at least I don't have to worry about being hit with a 5k assessment to replace our treatment plant

[Benny95TA]

Originally Posted by sixthgear

Interesting that he wouldn't make $ from it. The brokers generally get paid by the lender, not the client.

He's helped with advice, even when the deal wasn't going through him... in other words: he's good shit.

[Narayan]

Working at the bank I receive the MLS sales report of property listings and properties sold.

Sales are down across the boards on a average of 40%

Prices are increasing still but at a low rate of 3-4%

(these numbers are comparing this year to last year FYI)

It's already a buyers market especially on higher value Holmes.

But is it still out of reach for most family's? damn right it is.

I have 2 kids a wife,a good paying job and a town house in Langley that's about 4 years old. I would love to buy a house but doubling my mortgage to 400,000 from 200,000 makes me want to puke in my mouth.

I even considered relocating to Chilliwack where affordablility is alot better ( new 2500sqf house for under 400,000) but moving to Chilliwack also makes me want to puke in my mouth... HAHA

[fenge]

Originally Posted by projectcivic

I think we will see a correction here in Victoria but for those people who think the market here will crash and house prices will drop below $250,000 for a house. Keep dreaming, its not going to happen. My mom was showing me a graph (she is a realtor) showing the house pricing trends over the past 25 years. It showed 2 corrections in that time, one correction was 3% and the other was 6% I think. That means if that trend was to happen here at a 6% correction, we would see a $450,000 house going now for $423,000. Still not a crash if you ask me. Houses here in Victoria are still selling fast if they are priced correctly.You just don't see the deal where someone listed there house at $600,000 (worth $450,000) and selling in 48hours.
4 years ago when we were right in the huge spike in prices my mom told me there was a aprox. only 1000 houses on the market here in Victoria so choices were few so people with crappy houses could ask what ever they wanted. Well right now there is something close to 4800 on the market. So if your not pricing it right, it won't show and therefore not sell.

From 1981 to 1982 there was a 43% drop in inflation adjusted SFH prices in Victoria. In 1994 there was a 11% drop. This is from the VREB's own stats.

If there was a 40% correction in housing prices I wouldn't be surprised. It is happening in the US, the UK, India, Spain... why not Canada. Oh wait, prices are already down 10% in Calgary.

I'm not praying for a housing crash--don't get me wrong. Many of my friends have recently bought into the hype and purchased $500 homes as first time buyers. But what if prices go down a modest 10%, and rates start to climb to back up to normal levels?

I'm going to wait and see what happens. The next few months should get really interesting.

[Narayan]

Here are the MLS stats I was discussing above...

May MLS Statistics:

The number of residential units sold in B.C. on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) declined 30.7% in May compared to the same month last year, with 8,101 units sold. Residential sales dollar volume reached $3.85 billion this month, a 26.6% drop compared to the same month last year, while the average residential home price reached $475,656, an increase of 5.9% compared to May 2007.

Greater Vancouver: The number of residential units sold in May reached 3,065, a drop of 30.5% compared to the same month last year, while dollar volumes decreased 26.6% to $1.9 billion. The average residential home price reached $624,639 this month, an increase of 5.6% compared to May of last year.

Fraser Valley: The number of units sold in May declined 25.1% compared to the same month last year, with 1,531 units sold. Dollar volumes also dropped 25.9% to $662.4 million, as did the average residential home price which declined 1.1% compared to May of last year reaching $432,679.

Chilliwack: May sales declined 39.6% to 239 units, while dollar volumes reached $75.5 million, a 37.6% drop compared to the same month last year. The average residential home price continued to climb in May reaching $315,721, a 3.4% increase compared to May of last year.

Victoria: Sales in May reached 736 units, an 18.6% decline compared to the same month last year. Dollar volumes also dropped 12.4% to $378 million, while the average residential home price reached $514,100, a 7.6% increase compared to May of last year.

Vancouver Island: The number of residential units sold in May reached 725, a decline of 36.5% compared to the same month last year. Dollar volumes declined 32.6% reaching $241.7 million, while the average residential home price rose 6.1% to $333,348.

Okanagan (including South Okanagan): The Okanagan and South Okanagan markets recorded 795 units sold in May, a decrease of 38.9% compared to May of last year, while dollar volumes declined 33.3% to $320 million.

Kamloops: Dollar volumes dropped 35.5% compared to the same month last year reaching $72.4 million in May. The number of sales dropped 40.4% with 238 units sold, while the average residential home price jumped 8.1% compared to May of last year reaching $304,242.

[fenge]

Declining sales, check. Prices are next.

[Vette Dood]

I agree. Get your finances together now and be ready to jump. Later in the year and the start of next year should clarify what is going to happen. For me, I don't want to be putting together everything then, i'll be waiting idle and ready to go.

[projectcivic]

Originally Posted by fenge

From 1981 to 1982 there was a 43% drop in inflation adjusted SFH prices in Victoria. In 1994 there was a 11% drop. This is from the VREB's own stats.

If there was a 40% correction in housing prices I wouldn't be surprised. It is happening in the US, the UK, India, Spain... why not Canada. Oh wait, prices are already down 10% in Calgary.

I'm not praying for a housing crash--don't get me wrong. Many of my friends have recently bought into the hype and purchased $500 homes as first time buyers. But what if prices go down a modest 10%, and rates start to climb to back up to normal levels?

I'm going to wait and see what happens. The next few months should get really interesting.

Interesting, I am not sure where my numbers came from then cause I cant deny your stats there. Either way, I still don't believe we will see a huge drop in prices, a modest drop maybe but don't expect a $450,000 house to come under $350,000

[Narayan]

Originally Posted by projectcivic

Interesting, I am not sure where my numbers came from then cause I cant deny your stats there. Either way, I still don't believe we will see a huge drop in prices, a modest drop maybe but don't expect a $450,000 house to come under $350,000

WOW 450,000 house that aint 20-30+ years old in a good location! TELL ME WHERE!

lol

[fenge]

Originally Posted by projectcivic

Interesting, I am not sure where my numbers came from then cause I cant deny your stats there. Either way, I still don't believe we will see a huge drop in prices, a modest drop maybe but don't expect a $450,000 house to come under $350,000

I agree--I just can't see it happening. But it has happened in many other cities around the globe. Almost every large city in the USA except NY and San Francisco has seen a housing meltdown. To continue thinking that we are somehow different or special could be very painful if you're planning on buying a house this year, or next year.

Take a look at this listing: Sold in Jan 04 for $326K, flipped in Feb 07 for $560K, now listed at $280K. A 50% drop in little more than a year.

I'm not deliberately trying to cherry pick here--there are literally thousands of examples like this across the country.

[Nightwalker]

Originally Posted by aspect

I like how RS has changed in the past 4 years, haha.

lol no doubt, we're all growing up eh?

[projectcivic]

Originally Posted by fenge

I agree--I just can't see it happening. But it has happened in many other cities around the globe. Almost every large city in the USA except NY and San Francisco has seen a housing meltdown. To continue thinking that we are somehow different or special could be very painful if you're planning on buying a house this year, or next year.

Take a look at this listing: Sold in Jan 04 for $326K, flipped in Feb 07 for $560K, now listed at $280K. A 50% drop in little more than a year.

I'm not deliberately trying to cherry pick here--there are literally thousands of examples like this across the country.

I believe that our lending practises are different here in Canada so hopefully we won't see the same mass forclosure rate here. I don't think we are ammune to a crash but I think in a way we are a very different market here in Canada

[sixthgear]

Originally Posted by fenge

I agree--I just can't see it happening. But it has happened in many other cities around the globe. Almost every large city in the USA except NY and San Francisco has seen a housing meltdown. To continue thinking that we are somehow different or special could be very painful if you're planning on buying a house this year, or next year.

Take a look at this listing: Sold in Jan 04 for $326K, flipped in Feb 07 for $560K, now listed at $280K. A 50% drop in little more than a year.

I'm not deliberately trying to cherry pick here--there are literally thousands of examples like this across the country.

Don't mix the sub prime mess in the US with Canada. We are going to see some impact, but not the same as them.

[fenge]

I acknowledge that our lending practices are quite different than the states, but subprime mortgages didn't "cause" the housing meltdown. It was just the canary in the coalmine.