REVscene Automotive Forum - Real Estate Downturn?

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its only gunna go down so much till people will be all like
holly fuck thats a good deal and start buyin the shit up again.

Maybe I'm morbid, but I can't wait until all the old fart seniors start dying off and their properties start showing up on the market.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great68 (Post 5932814)

Maybe I'm morbid, but I can't wait until all the old fart seniors start dying off and their properties start showing up on the market.

they got some nice properties too.:thumbsup::D

And the normally have family who want a tonne of cash from those properties. :p

^^^ Bingo.

And the estate sale process is more like an auction.

speaking of old people croaking and homes going up for sale. a house JUST went up for sale on the 3900 block of Saanich rd. Uphill drive way, white house, the lady that lives there used to have birds, without a cage, and when we used to deliver food there would be bird shit everywhere and the house stunk. So unless you plan on ripping everything up don't even waste your time.

Divide it up into 8 suites, hold until olympics. It's easy!

i'm actually looking at houses in Prince George of all places, the town is probably about to either fall flat on its face or totally recover from mining, no-one knows. either way i cannot afford to live on this island.

the only good thing about PG is you can get a 4-5 bedroom house with a basement for 200-300k whereas here you are looking upwards of a million.

in vancouver they were saying it takes 76% of your annual income to afford to 'live' whereas northern BC you are only looking at about 32%. then again you have to live in snow most of the year.

Well here is where things now get interesting. No more 100% financing. No more 40yr mortgages. In a housing market where homes for sale are on the rise, sales are down... and now less people are going to be able to qualify / afford a mortgage. If this doesn't have housing price drop written all over it I don't know what will. If you have 5% and can afford a 35yr (note a new 45% TDS, up from 40% normally) I think there is going to be advantages to waiting 6 months.....

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.co...drops-100.html

Quote:

MHC Drops 100% Financing and 40-Year Amortizations

BREAKING NEWS

This will be a big surprise to many. The Department of Finance has just announced that it will no longer back the following:

* 100% financing (5% will now be the minimum downpayment on an insured mortgage)
* 40 year amortizations (35 years will be the new maximum on insured mortgages)

The government will also require the following with all new mortgages it backs:

* A new 620 minimum credit score requirement
* 45% maximum TDS ratio
* New loan documentation standards

The new rules will take effect October 15, 2008. This affects CMHC insured mortgages as well as mortgages insured by Genworth, AIG, etc. Insured mortgages are generally those with less than 20% down. Certain conventional mortgages are also insured, however.

In a statement earlier today, the Department of Finance said, "Today’s announcement marks a responsible and measured approach by the Government to ensure Canada’s housing market remains strong and to reduce the risk of a U.S.-style housing bubble developing in Canada."

These new rules pertain only to new, government-backed insured mortgages. This will not affect existing mortgages

I'd like to dig up an old thread where I was one a a few who were talking about this. Real Estate cycles, it is the way it works. I'm old enough to have seen it happen twice, soon to be three times. If you are in any position to buy I would sit it our for a up to a year.

I watch real estate in Sidney quite a bit and I have seen prices drop and houses sit for 6 months to a year reguarly b/c people/developers are trying to cash in.

Even 5% is too low an amount too put down. Honestly, the interest over 25-30yrs is killer, and only putting 5% down makes sense to the banks but no one else. And at that little of a downpayment, a 10-15% price correction could mean bloodshed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buster (Post 5936261)

Exactly. Although I do not think we will ever see Pre-Year 2000 pricing, the market will HAVE to drop at some point. It's how markets work.

The only thing that seems like a sure bet to never go down these days is the price of oil.

Thank god we closed that barn door before the... hey! Where did the horse go?

Here is a graph of the housing price cycles (see if you can spot them :P ) in victoria:

http://www.alkihaul.com/files/cycle.jpg

The cycles become more obvious if you correct for inflation.

http://img60.imageshack.us/img60/701...007dropbd8.jpg

Just saw this on the news and I am suprised.

This is definitely going to have an impact in markets where housing prices are high. A 600,000 house will require a 30,000 downpayment. Like Chris Olsen said on CTV it's the new buyers that fuel the market.

Does that tell the whole story though? Are there fewer homes available in the $400k range than in past years, or is the market being padded by an increase in $750k+ homes? When we were looking two years ago, even though the average price on the graph shows around $500k, there was a very large selection at or slightly under $400k from what I remember.

You'd have to go look at the median prices for all those years.

In June, the average price in Victoria was $520k, and the median was $478k. Where in Colwood it was $478k average and $458k median. The Greater Victoria average for June was $520k with a median of $538k, and a 6 month average of $601k. Comparibly the 6month average, 6 months ago was $586k. So this indicates a slight increase still, but based on the longer averages, the increase rate is slowing down and 'hopefully' will level out.
Given all this, you are entirely correct, even though the average house is $601k in GVA, I can assure you there are plenty of homes for sale currently in the $450k to $550k, and for the around $500k there are some really nice places... it is funny to talk like $500k is a value price though :(

Do you guys ever watch "house hunters international" on tv? Live here, and drive a civic or move to somewhere in the south and drive an A5. hmmm.....

A lot to read, but good reads. I bolded what I thought was the most important part. You're comparing to numbers from 2007, which was a RECORD year.

Andrew Duffy

Canwest News Service

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Quote:

Victoria real estate market gets 'back to normal' as industry sees signs housing boom is over

B.C. affected by U.S. mortgage crisis

VICTORIA -- Real estate sales are down in the provincial capital. The number of sales and the total value are lower, and the real estate industry is seeing signs that Victoria's housing boom is over.

"We are definitely seeing a shift in the marketplace, although it's certainly not a time for panic," said Victoria Real Estate Board president Tony Joe. "For people hoping home values will be plummeting any time in the future, I don't think that's going to be happening any time soon."

Joe said the market has been cool so far in 2008, but that's in comparison to 2007, an "exceptionally busy year when we exceeded all the numbers."

"We're also looking over the last five or six years and what we're finding is things are just coming back to normal," he said.

According to Landcor Data's first-quarter residential home sales summary, the economic malaise in the U.S. fuelled by the sub-prime mortgage crisis is having an effect on B.C. and Vancouver Island.

The Island, Fraser Valley and northern B.C. have all seen the total value of sales in the first quarter drop compared with the first quarter of 2007, the first time all three regions have seen a quarterly decrease in the past four years.

"The cooling-off period is not unique to this region, and not to the province of B.C. The North American economy as a whole has seen a dramatic change in market value in the past year," said Landcor president Rudy Nielsen. "It not only affected the housing prices in certain American markets, but it has been trickling into the demand for homes, the job market and commodity markets around the globe over the past year."

Over the first quarter of this year there were 4,661 sales of homes on the Island, a drop of 11 per cent, while the total value of those sales dropped 1.95 per cent to $1.7 billion.

Provincially there were 26,860 home sales in the first quarter, down 11.8 per cent from the first quarter of 2007, although total value was up 5.6 per cent to $11.69 billion.

"Speculation, both from investors and home owners expecting a major financial payoff, makes housing more volatile than other economic sectors," said Nielsen. "Recently, consumer confidence has dwindled, causing the market to correct. This is the normal real estate cycle and this is what we're seeing throughout B.C."

Derrick Penner

Vancouver Sun

Thursday, July 03, 2008

Quote:

It's a buyer's market

Typical prices down slightly from benchmark prices in May

Metro Vancouver's real estate markets are officially in favour of the buyers looking for new homes following another month of declining sales and rising inventories, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver has confirmed in its latest report.

Metro Vancouver's real estate markets are officially in favour of the buyers looking for new homes following another month of declining sales and rising inventories, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver has confirmed in its latest report.

Lower Mainland house hunters are now in a buyer's market with prices that have eased slightly off of earlier-year highs, according to the latest report from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

The region saw 2,425 sales registered through the Multiple Listing Service in June, the board reported, a 43-per-cent decline from the same month a year ago.

At the same time, owners listed 6,546 properties, an 18 per cent increase from the same month a year ago. On June 30, Greater Vancouver's inventory of unsold properties stood at 18,260, a 54-per-cent increase from a year ago.

And while so-called benchmark prices in June were still up over the same month a year ago, in many markets typical prices were down slightly from benchmark prices in May.

The Greater Vancouver benchmark price for a detached house was $765,654 in June, up 7.3 per cent from the same month a year ago, but down from the May benchmark of $771,250.

"When a market is in buyer's market conditions, there is little upward pressure on home prices," which is reflected in those May-to-June changes Cameron Muir, chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association said in an interview.

However, Muir doesn't see any factors that would drive prices down.

Consumer confidence is lower than it was a year ago and Vancouver's high prices have squeezed some buyers out of the market, Muir said, but the region's overall economy remains strong with solid job creation and positive levels of population migration.

"There is no indication, at this point, of any kind of substantial decline in prices," he added.

Dave Watt, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, said the homes that are selling are still selling relatively quickly, but the market is becoming increasingly competitive.

"The buyer sure knows about your competition, because of the power of the Internet," Watt said. "For sellers today, you'd better know about your competition."

Maple Ridge realtor Ron Antalek, with Re/Max Ridge Meadows, said it is the sellers who still try to set new all-time highs with their prices that are watching their properties sit.

"In general, the average [price] is reasonably stable, but not really showing any price increases," Antalek added. "We're seeing sale prices, in some occasions, equal to last year."

Watt said realtors are starting to see more sellers reduce their asking prices.

Fraser Valley markets also showed a slowing of sales and rising inventories that pushed the region into buyer's territory.

Fraser Valley realtors recorded 1,418 MLS sales, a 31-per-cent decline from the same month a year ago.

At the same time, 3,236 new listings hit the market, bringing the valley's total inventory of unsold homes to 11,295, a 47-per-cent increase from the same month a year ago.

The Fraser Valley's average detached house price hit $561,771 in June, a six-per-cent increase from the same month a year ago.

Muir added that he expects to see some balancing out in the market as the year progresses as sellers readjust their expectations and either re-price their properties given today's realities, or pull their listings off the market.

Derrick Penner

Vancouver Sun

Friday, July 04, 2008

Quote:

House hunters see a slender ray of light

Prices ease slightly as unsold properties are up by 54 per cent over '07

Lower Mainland house hunters are now in a buyer's market with prices that have eased slightly off of earlier-year highs, according to the latest report from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

The region saw 2,425 sales registered through the Multiple Listing Service in June, the board reported, a 43-per-cent decline from the same month a year ago.

At the same time, owners listed 6,546 properties, an 18-per-cent increase from the same month a year ago. On June 30, Greater Vancouver's inventory of unsold properties stood at 18,260, a 54-per-cent increase from a year ago.

And while so-called benchmark prices in June were still up over the same month a year ago, in many markets typical prices were down slightly from benchmark prices in May.

The Greater Vancouver benchmark price for a detached house was $765,654 in June, up 7.3 per cent from the same month a year ago, but down from the May benchmark of $771,250.

"When a market is in buyer's market conditions, there is little upward pressure on home prices," which is reflected in those May-to-June changes Cameron Muir, chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association said in an interview.

However, Muir doesn't see any factors that would drive prices down.

Consumer confidence is lower than it was a year ago and Vancouver's high prices have squeezed some buyers out of the market, Muir said, but the region's overall economy remains strong with solid job creation and positive levels of population migration.

"There is no indication, at this point, of any kind of substantial decline in prices," he added.

Dave Watt, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, said the homes that are selling are still selling relatively quickly, but the market is becoming increasingly competitive.

"The buyer sure knows about your competition, because of the power of the Internet," Watt said. "For sellers today, you'd better know about your competition."

Maple Ridge realtor Ron Antalek, with Re/Max Ridge Meadows, said it is the sellers who still try to set new all-time highs with their prices that are watching their properties sit.

"In general, the average [price] is reasonably stable, but not really showing any price increases," Antalek added. "We're seeing sale prices, in some occasions, equal to last year."

Watt said realtors are starting to see more sellers reduce their asking prices. Fraser Valley markets also showed a slowing of sales and rising inventories that pushed the region into buyer's territory.

Fraser Valley realtors recorded 1,418 MLS sales, a 31-per-cent decline from the same month a year ago.

At the same time, 3,236 new listings hit the market, bringing the valley's total inventory of unsold homes to 11,295, a 47-per-cent increase from the same month a year ago.

The Fraser Valley's average detached house price hit $561,771 in June, a six-per-cent increase from the same month a year ago.

Muir added that he expects to see some balancing out in the market as the year progresses as sellers readjust their expectations and either re-price their properties given today's realities, or pull their listings off the market.

I love the term "single family dwellings". I don't know of many new SFD's that don't have a suite in them. This has been a HUGE trend in the past 5 years (out in the western communities for sure), and as such the price of those houses has gone up because people are getting a very large house with an 'income helper'. This has helped to push up the "single family" average price a bunch in the last few years.

The stats are interesting but you have to remember that they are gathering stats at a high level to enable them to track it long term. They don't really change the stats to match current trends because that would negate any comparison with their historical data.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black SC2 (Post 5936520)

Absolutely right--it's a given that the median price will be quite a bit lower. The graph only shows the difference in pricing between two different years. I.e. if average prices rose 80% between 2001 and 2008, the median almost certainly rose by the same amount. The median usually follows the average exactly, just at a lower sale price.

Gilligan: 2007 was a record year, as was the year before it, and the year before it, etc etc. That's what a housing boom (or bubble in this case) is. Nevermind the obvious conflict of interest the sun and province have when it comes to real estate. Front page: "real estate is good!", followed by 10 pages of condo advertisements.

I love it how people call this a shift from a sellers market to a buyers market. How can it be a good time to buy if there's a huge chance your house will tank in value over the next couple years.

Quote:

Originally Posted by fenge (Post 5937577)

I love it how people call this a shift from a sellers market to a buyers market. How can it be a good time to buy if there's a huge chance your house will tank in value over the next couple years.

You only care if your house value "tanks" if you need to re-mortgage it. Otherwise what does it matter? The other time is if you have loans against the equity in your house and the bank calls the loan.

If you have either, it isn't a big deal if your house price drops some.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixthgear (Post 5938161)

Or if you have to sell. Like if you get divorced, or if you have to move for work, or because of a family member's illness. There are many reasons a drop in the value of your house can destroy you financially.

Quote:

Originally Posted by fenge (Post 5938309)

Sounds like you should always rent then eh. :) Property looks to be too risky.

As far as investments go, you should rent. If you are disciplined you'll have far more cash in the bank in no time. And it makes way more sense for people that need to mortgage their soul to even get close to the median house price.