Metro Vancouver real estate sales bounce back

[wahyinghung]

Real estate sales have bounced back in March compared to February, up 53 per cent in Metro Vancouver, 48 per cent in the Fraser Valley and 34 per cent on Vancouver Island.

Moreover, in some areas prices showed signs of recovery as well.

The numbers are still down significantly from last March but are still encouraging, said Paul Penner, president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, where prices have eked up slightly.

“All the stats are encouraging,” Penner said. “They are going in the right direction.”

Fraser Valley realtors had more than 1,000 sales in March, the first time that level has been reached since last July. But sales are still down 24 per cent from a year ago.

Benchmark prices are also down, just over 10 per cent from last March, though many areas saw small price increases between March and February.

Overall, the average benchmark price was 1.3 per cent higher than in February, at $409,662, though condominiums were down slightly and townhouses were flat.

Things are looking up, Penner said. “Traffic is way up, the amount of phone calls coming into the offices has increased dramatically, the activity is definitely up,” he said.

But Penner won’t predict if the market has reached bottom.

“Hopefully this trend will continue and so far I haven’t seen anything that would lead me to believe it won’t,” he said.

Vancouver area sales jumped the most among the boards reporting numbers Thursday, yet volumes were also down about 24 per cent from last March. And benchmark prices were down month over month for detached homes and townhomes, though not for condominiums.

In March the benchmark price for a detached home in Greater Vancouver — which extends from Squamish to South Delta and Pitt Meadows — was $649,342, down from $653,452 in February, and 15 per cent lower than it was in March 2008.

Townhouses were $420,563 in March, compared to $426,268 a month earlier, and 11 per cent cheaper than in 2008.

Condominium prices went from $333,134 in February to $337,099 in March, which was 13.5 per cent lower than a year earlier.

Jamie Boyle, a realtor with Remax Select Properties in Vancouver, says the market has really picked up in the last six weeks.

“Compared to February, March was nuts,” Boyle said.

And Boyle has the proof. He recently received 17 offers on a property he had for sale near Prince of Wales secondary school which after only a couple of days on the market sold for $1.208 million, above the $998,00 asking price.

Boyle has seen multiple offers this year but usually they are below the asking price, he said. His sale was unique because of the uniqueness of the property, which was in a great location, and was larger than an average city lot.

“I must have had 100 phone calls [on the listing],” Boyle said.

“I think it bodes well for the market,” he added.

The Vancouver Island Real Estate Board — which covers Vancouver Island north of Victoria and Saltspring Island — had 31 per cent fewer sales of single-family dwellings [the only stats that are provided] in March than a year earlier, despite its 34-per-cent jump from February. Prices for the month were up 3.45 per cent, though still six per cent lower than a year ago.

“I think consumer confidence is starting to return,” said Ray Francis, president of the VIREB.

Prices have dropped and with low mortgage rates, people are willing to get into the market, Francis added. “And we live in the most beautiful place in the world, or at least in Canada,” he said.
© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Met...235/story.html

[BoneThug]

weak

[Ducdesmo]

Another sad attempt at boosting buyer's confidence. Vancouver still has a long ways to go before the market reaches some sort of equilibrium.

[johny]

I have definatly noticed a lot of sold signs in the last 2 weeks in my area on houses that have been up for sale for months.

not good at all, I need it to drop a lot more!

[Death2Theft]

Looks like you'll never be able to afford a house unless u be selling some serious drugs.

[GLOW]

seems like ppl are waiting for prices to drop and think we are close to the bottom and are afraid to "gamble" and see if it drops more, and buying once prices are hitting their price range. hopefully prices will continue to drop, i'm not a drug dealer

[CRS]

One month means nothing.

I would like to see how to relates to quarter sales for the entire year. I highly doubt this is the rebound people are making it look like. Just because you have one good mouth doesn't mean anything. Especially when it is the spring. A season noted for higher than average sales in homes. Just wait to fall, I guarantee there won't be the same "rebound".

[slammer111]

Originally Posted by Death2Theft

Looks like you'll never be able to afford a house unless u be selling some serious drugs.

Or you're eating soft rice.

[Blinky]

The posted article is spin.

The numbers are still down significantly from last March
(...)

Fraser Valley realtors had more than 1,000 sales in March, the first time that level has been reached since last July. But sales are still down 24 per cent from a year ago.

(...)

Vancouver area sales jumped the most among the boards reporting numbers Thursday, yet volumes were also down about 24 per cent from last March.

Historically there is a jump in sales each spring. This year is no different.

The Real Estate Board (s) will always pick the most "optimistic" number and spin it as much as they can. After all, they don't care if you get reasonable value for money or not, or even if you're paying a reasonable price.

[fliptuner]

Originally Posted by johny

I have definatly noticed a lot of sold signs in the last 2 weeks in my area on houses that have been up for sale for months.

not good at all, I need it to drop a lot more!

Same boat. Maybe it'll go down like Calgary after the Olympics - spiked then went right down the shitter, then went back up 4 years later.

[CRS]

Originally Posted by fliptuner

Same boat. Maybe it'll go down like Calgary after the Olympics - spiked then went right down the shitter, then went back up 4 years later.

Too bad Calgary and Vancouver are complete different cities with completely different environmental situations.

[CanadaGoose]

Calgary real estate's reported to have rebounded 33% in March over February

[Ch28]

Originally Posted by johny

I have definatly noticed a lot of sold signs in the last 2 weeks in my area on houses that have been up for sale for months.

not good at all, I need it to drop a lot more!

I think this is the first time that I've ever agreed with anything you've said

[taylor192]

Lets consider a few things:

1. Interest rates are at ALL TIME LOWS. You can get 4.0% (maybe less) on a 5-year fixed mortgage, and prime + 0.6% on variable (2.5 + 0.6 = 3.1%).

2. In the period of 1.5 years (2004-2006) the BoC raised the rate from all-time lows by ~2% and banks were giving out fixed rates > 6%.

3. So what happens when the BoC increases rates again: Here's some numbers to crunch:
$500K @ 4% = $2600/mn
$500K @ 5% = $2900/mn
$500K @ 6% = $3200/mn
$500K @ 7% = $3500/mn

or, what does $2600/mn buy you if rates go up?
$500K @ 4% = $2600/mn
$450K @ 5% = $2600/mn
$400K @ 6% = $2600/mn
$370K @ 7% = $2600/mn

4. If the economic recovery in late 2009 or 2010 occurs, the BoC will increase rates and diminish buying power. If rates go up 2%, a family that could've bought a $500K home is now only able to afford $400K.

What do you think that will do to the housing market?

People are jumping in cause of low rates, and this won't last long. I worry what happens in 5 years when they have to renew at 2-3% higher.

[taylor192]

More to consider:

Here's a graph of Vancouver housing prices:


1. After huge increases, Vancouver housing prices have leveled off for 6 years (1981-1987) and 8 years (1994-2002).

2. The increase from 2002-2008 far exceeds to previous increases. I expect the leveling off to far exceed previous periods, perhaps 10 years.

I'm in no hurry to buy in Vancouver, prices will be the same, if not lower, for a LONG time to come.

[hotjoint]

keep dropping house prices

[Ulic Qel-Droma]

if that graph two posts above me is accurate, i wouldn't be scared of rising prices.

[penner2k]

no... I do not know that guy.

[taylor192]

Originally Posted by Ulic Qel-Droma

if that graph two posts above me is accurate, i wouldn't be scared of rising prices.

It is.

I moved here 6 months ago, been tracking prices for 2 years while planning to move. I don't plan to buy until 6 months after the Olympics.

Look at the availability in Vancouver:
- There's 1100 condos available in JUST the West End/FC area

Now wait till the Olympics clears out, people don't stay, and 750 condos in the Olympic village plus all the other buildings slated to finish soon become available. Do you think home owners bought places in presale that take 4 years to be built? No its investors who will want to flip to get out.

What do you think will happen to the market when the number of units for sale more than DOUBLES downtown?

[Hondaracer]

in my neighborhood, there is a strip of 3 rediculously overpriced houses that havent sold even before shit hit the fan

other then that, I shit you not, every single other for-sale sign has a SOLD sticker on it

[taylor192]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

other then that, I shit you not, every single other for-sale sign has a SOLD sticker on it

Same here in Kits.

I think people are jumping in before the bottom cause the low rates allows them to buy more.

Look at the numbers I posted:
- The BoC has reduced rates from 3.75 (Mar 2008) to 0.75 (Mar 2009). That's a 3% drop in 1 years!
- The BoC has reduced rates from 4.75 (Nov 2007) to 0.75 (Mar 2009). That's a 4% drop in 1.5 years!
- Banks have dropped posted 5yr fixed rates from > 6% to < 4%.

Look at the buying power that gives people, you can afford > $100K more at those rates!

---

Personally I'd still wait. Sales are still down over the past 5 years, so while you're noticing more SOLD signs, its cause there's less FOR SALE signs.

Even with the fewer FOR SALE signs, there's still a LOT of properties for sale.

---

Now is the worst time of the year to buy as well. January is best, its called "divorce month", families that stuck together for the holidays have bills to pay, want to split everything and kiss the other goodbye. Lots of eager sellers willing to negotiate. Plus the bad weather makes showing houses bad, so there's fewer buyers (plus those buyers are broke after the holidays too!).