| Soundy | 03-18-2011 10:38 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by adambomb
(Post 7350459)
You know what's funny. I've been told that we are going to get the "big one" since Grade 1. I remember doing earthquake drills in Grade 1, you know when that was? 1986.
So since 1986 some scientist has been predicting the "big one" for Vancouver but it still hasn't shown up. :inoutugh:
| They've actually been telling us to be ready for it at least since I was that age... which was about 1974. Fact is, 30-40 years is a mere blip on the geological scale. Geologists can look at how the plates move, and how often these type of quakes have happened in the past, and have figured out that, for the particular fault that concerns us, they've happened before on a "schedule" of something like every 300-350 years (if memory serves)... the last BIG one for this fault was a 9.0 in 1700... which at at this point puts us 311 years. So by historical record, they know it's highly likely that another is due. But predicting an exact date and time from that is difficult at best.
It's like... you know flocks of geese are going to fly over every fall, heading south... but you have no way to know exactly what date or time or exactly where in the sky they'll go over. But come fall, if someone tells you the geese will fly over sometime soon, you can be pretty sure he's right. Quote:
Originally Posted by EDub_
(Post 7350495)
Who knows if he's right/wrong but it is something to think about..we all do share the same plate as the other countries that got the quakes.
| We don't, actually... see the map here: http://www.crew.org/british-columbia.php
That's what's wrong with these "ring of fire" theories - these areas are all seismically active, but they're not directly connected. | 