REVscene - Vancouver Automotive Forum


Welcome to the REVscene Automotive Forum forums.

Registration is Free!You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today! The banners on the left side and below do not show for registered users!

If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact contact us.


Go Back   REVscene Automotive Forum > Automotive Chat > Vancouver Off-Topic / Current Events

Vancouver Off-Topic / Current Events The off-topic forum for Vancouver, funnies, non-auto centered discussions, WORK SAFE. While the rules are more relaxed here, there are still rules. Please refer to sticky thread in this forum.

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 05-29-2012, 01:53 PM   #76
RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
 
fobulaus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: burnaby
Posts: 926
Thanked 101 Times in 32 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by TRDood View Post
You are assuming risk neutral behaviour.

It should be Utility[Expected Value] = Utility[Probably*Payout - Risk attitude]

How risk adverse you are is very hard to measure, but you can do it in a relative sense.

I know.. I said I've assumed a risk neutral world...
Even with a reasonable utility function, the 50/50 option will be better..
Advertisement
fobulaus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 01:56 PM   #77
RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
 
i-VTEC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 911
Thanked 297 Times in 116 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ulic Qel-Droma View Post
ok

how about this

what if you were the one holding the gun.

lol. now we're back to question 1.
except the victim is offering you this choice. and you must honor the choice.

now i think most people would pick the 1million right?
I really don't want to charge with kidnapping with demand of money, so can't answer you
i-VTEC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 01:59 PM   #78
RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
 
fobulaus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: burnaby
Posts: 926
Thanked 101 Times in 32 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ulic Qel-Droma View Post
ok

how about this

what if you were the one holding the gun.

lol. now we're back to question 1.
except the victim is offering you this choice. and you must honor the choice.

now i think most people would pick the 1million right?
Personally if I was holding the gun I would choose the 25MM option...
In terms of value, the 25MM is a much better bet..

Try adjusting the winning probability upward to get the same expected return...

Let say you have 90% chance of winning 13.9MM, 10% chance you win nothing. The expected return is still 12.5MM...

Would you still go with the 1MM option?
fobulaus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 02:08 PM   #79
Wunder? Wonder?? Wander???
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 221
Thanked 171 Times in 20 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by d87c View Post
The regret isn't because you are stuck with ugly wife, didn't win the clip flip to have the hot wife, like you mention that's the regret/remorse.

But the regret/remorse from the actual question is regret for not taking the Ok wife which is the 1M Dollar

You feel remorse that you gave up the chance on having the 1M not from you didn't win the coin flip
hmmm... after thinking about it again, i do agree with you but ONLY under the assumption that you had no control whatsoever in the 50/50 lottery.

For example, if you yourself had a flip a coin, and if it landed heads you win the $25 and if it landed tails you end up with $0, then the remorse afterwards will not only be not taking the $1 million, but also thinking "damn, if I had flipped that coin differently...". I think this feeling can be analogous to having to bear the terrible wife.
ParadiseLost is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 02:12 PM   #80
RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
 
i-VTEC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 911
Thanked 297 Times in 116 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by ParadiseLost View Post
hmmm... after thinking about it again, i do agree with you but ONLY under the assumption that you had no control whatsoever in the 50/50 lottery.

For example, if you yourself had a flip a coin, and if it landed heads you win the $25 and if it landed tails you end up with $0, then the remorse afterwards will not only be not taking the $1 million, but also thinking "damn, if I had flipped that coin differently...". I think this feeling can be analogous to having to bear the terrible wife.
to a small degree you are right. but we'll mostly if not all feel like we came out with empty handed.

unless the 1M isn't an option, you are given a coin flip win 25M

if you lose the coin flip you'll regret that damn I didn't win! and it was 50/50 how can I lose

however if there is another option 100% guarantee lesser amount like 1M, of course you'll feel, damn, why didn't I just walk away with guarantee money

*edit*
this is just like gambling, you already win X amount 1. you can choose to walk away or 2. you can risk 1M for the chance of winning the 25M grand prize. If you lost, you'll blame yourself I should have walked away.
i-VTEC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 02:14 PM   #81
The RS Freebie guru
 
InvisibleSoul's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: East Vancouver
Posts: 22,032
Thanked 2,491 Times in 860 Posts
How the hell did a gun enter the picture?
InvisibleSoul is offline   Reply With Quote
This post thanked by:
Old 05-29-2012, 02:16 PM   #82
Wunder? Wonder?? Wander???
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 221
Thanked 171 Times in 20 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by fobulaus View Post
Personally if I was holding the gun I would choose the 25MM option...
In terms of value, the 25MM is a much better bet..

Try adjusting the winning probability upward to get the same expected return...

Let say you have 90% chance of winning 13.9MM, 10% chance you win nothing. The expected return is still 12.5MM...

Would you still go with the 1MM option?
I don't think it's adequate to analyze this situation based on the "expected return" logic. For example, what if you changed the question to:

guaranteed $150 million vs 20% chance of winning $1 billion. The expected return for the latter is greater than the former, but I don't think too many people would pick option number 2.
ParadiseLost is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 02:35 PM   #83
I answer every Emotion with an emoticon
 
TRDood's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: V
Posts: 7,849
Thanked 656 Times in 326 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by fobulaus View Post
I know.. I said I've assumed a risk neutral world...
Even with a reasonable utility function, the 50/50 option will be better..


Not really, as you can see, this is a person who is risk-averse. Anything between 1 and 5 is no good. ($0 million and $25 million in the OP's case, taking the no-gamble is strictly better off than taking gamble.)



In a risk neutral scenario, the utility curve is now flat, making the person indifferent between having 0, 1, or 25 million.


Spoiler!
TRDood is offline   Reply With Quote
This post thanked by:
Old 05-29-2012, 02:48 PM   #84
Rs has made me the woman i am today!
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Richmond
Posts: 4,457
Thanked 2,259 Times in 439 Posts
Holy Fcuk.
The comprehension level of some people is amazing.
But, I guess a community wouldn't be a community without the idiots.
TheKingdom2000 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 02:53 PM   #85
RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
 
fobulaus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: burnaby
Posts: 926
Thanked 101 Times in 32 Posts
There are hundreds of practical utility functions with different calibrated parameters...

By "better", i meant if this "deal" was to be sold in the market, majority of the people will value this "deal" for more than 1MM (i.e. 50% chance to win 25MM, 50% to win 0).
fobulaus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 02:56 PM   #86
The RS Freebie guru
 
InvisibleSoul's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: East Vancouver
Posts: 22,032
Thanked 2,491 Times in 860 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by ParadiseLost View Post
I don't think it's adequate to analyze this situation based on the "expected return" logic. For example, what if you changed the question to:

guaranteed $150 million vs 20% chance of winning $1 billion. The expected return for the latter is greater than the former, but I don't think too many people would pick option number 2.
Yes, it is certainly more than just expected value.

If it's $1 and 50% chance of $25, I would obviously choose $25.

I wouldn't think twice about losing out on a loonie in my pocket, but I'd be happy to have $25 lining it.

If it's $1B and 50% chance of $25B, I would probably be content to settle for $1B.

$1B is already a ludicrous amount of money, and I can have everything I could ever dream of with that. I don't think my life would be any different if I had $1B or $25B, so I'd take the guaranteed $1B.

But if it's $1M and 50% chance of $25M, it's in the range where it could go either way.

$1M won't significantly change my way of life. It's like getting a house for free. I would still need to work for the rest of my life. However, $25M is definitely enough to change my forever. I can choose to never work another day in my life.

So in a way, for me personally, it would be "would you risk working an extra 10-15 years to make up the $1M you could have had for a 50% chance to live comfortably and never have to work again for the rest of your life"? Tough call.
InvisibleSoul is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 02:57 PM   #87
I answer every Emotion with an emoticon
 
TRDood's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: V
Posts: 7,849
Thanked 656 Times in 326 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by fobulaus View Post
There are hundreds of practical utility functions with different calibrated parameters...

By "better", i meant if this "deal" was to be sold in the market, majority of the people will value this "deal" for more than 1MM (i.e. 50% chance to win 25MM, 50% to win 0).
True, I am just illustrating a very simple person who is risk averse vs. risk neutral.

Would you agree that risk neutral person would have a linear utility function? Would you also agree that risk averse person would have a concave utility function?

If yes, then the above would be one example that the $0/$25 option can't be strictly better than $1 option.
TRDood is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 03:05 PM   #88
RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
 
fobulaus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: burnaby
Posts: 926
Thanked 101 Times in 32 Posts
Oh yes I agree... A risk neutral person would be indifferent in regards to losing 100 vs. gaining 100.... therefore, the utility curve is linear..

I'm not saying you're wrong that it's possible that someone wouldn't risk 1MM for 25MM... You can always find a person who has zero risk appetite and won't even risk a penny for $100..

My point is just that, personally, I would go for the 50/50 option because it's a much better bet.. and so would a lot of people..
fobulaus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 03:06 PM   #89
RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
 
i-VTEC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 911
Thanked 297 Times in 116 Posts
Naturally it is never wrong to choose the guarantee way. It is never wrong if you choose the risky way too "only if you win", but when you lose, all that becomes negative.

So essentially, are you the type of the person, who can handle that regret/losing situation? If you can't deal with falling down, go to the safer path. But if you don't care about losing 25M not because you can make 25M in other way, but you can make a decent life and doesn't value money that much, know that live isn't always so lucky.

But if you going to become a businessmen, risk is a necessity. They will definitely choose the 25M
i-VTEC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 03:09 PM   #90
RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
 
i-VTEC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 911
Thanked 297 Times in 116 Posts
Now if the question becomes

100% 1Million vs 50% 25Million vs 25% 50Million

Now, will we all go for the 50M? or the 1M ummm...
i-VTEC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 03:15 PM   #91
RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
 
fobulaus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: burnaby
Posts: 926
Thanked 101 Times in 32 Posts
Can I go for 75% 12.5MM?
fobulaus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 03:16 PM   #92
RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
 
fobulaus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: burnaby
Posts: 926
Thanked 101 Times in 32 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by d87c View Post
Now if the question becomes

100% 1Million vs 50% 25Million vs 25% 50Million

Now, will we all go for the 50M? or the 1M ummm...
Actually, I would go for the 25MM twice to diversify my risk lol
fobulaus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 03:22 PM   #93
RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
 
i-VTEC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 911
Thanked 297 Times in 116 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by fobulaus View Post
Actually, I would go for the 25MM twice to diversify my risk lol
haha I prefer that too

imagine you said heads to win 25M

both flipped tail

you'll be like FML
i-VTEC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 03:34 PM   #94
RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
 
fobulaus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: burnaby
Posts: 926
Thanked 101 Times in 32 Posts
If you can keep doing it then it's pretty hard to lose lol
fobulaus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 03:37 PM   #95
Prince of the Apes
 
bloodmack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Abbotsford
Posts: 2,469
Thanked 3,046 Times in 672 Posts
get the 1 million spend it all on lotto tickets.
bloodmack is offline   Reply With Quote
This post FAILED by:
Old 05-29-2012, 03:41 PM   #96
RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
 
i-VTEC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 911
Thanked 297 Times in 116 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by bloodmack View Post
get the 1 million spend it all on lotto tickets.


that would be 1/14 chances,

50% still better
i-VTEC is offline   Reply With Quote
This post FAILED by:
Old 05-29-2012, 04:00 PM   #97
...in the world.
 
Ronin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Richmond
Posts: 28,466
Thanked 7,636 Times in 2,321 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ulic Qel-Droma View Post
ok

how about this

what if you were the one holding the gun.

lol. now we're back to question 1.
except the victim is offering you this choice. and you must honor the choice.

now i think most people would pick the 1million right?
That's only because you're committing a fucking crime by robbing the guy and getting $1m with the better chance to get away is a better idea than a 50/50 shot at $25m.

No cops? 50/50, please.

It's because $1m, while a lot, isn't a LOT. $25m a lot. If you asked me whether I'd take $25m or a 50/50 shot at $100m, I'd take the $25m.
Ronin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 04:04 PM   #98
Prince of the Apes
 
bloodmack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Abbotsford
Posts: 2,469
Thanked 3,046 Times in 672 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by d87c View Post


that would be 1/14 chances,

50% still better
spend it on more then 1 game..
bloodmack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-29-2012, 05:28 PM   #99
HELP ME PLS!!!
 
Greenstoner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Canada
Posts: 5,647
Thanked 1,816 Times in 450 Posts
i think ill take the 1 mill

ive never seen 1 mill in my account before lol
Greenstoner is offline   Reply With Quote
This post thanked by:
Old 05-29-2012, 06:32 PM   #100
Diagonally parked in a parallel universe
 
Jayboogz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: vancouver
Posts: 1,416
Thanked 1,118 Times in 161 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hurricane View Post
If you think its impossible to make a million dollars in your life, then you are probably incapable of recognizing the benefits of having a million in cash handed to you anyhow.

Probably blow through it in under a year, and end up with debts so big you lose whatever worldly possessions you had before you started anyhow.

25 million and 1 million, are only similar to people who have nothing.

I'd roll the dice. I am happy where I am now, but 25 million would significantly change the foreseeable future.
Lol well I'd rather take the guarenteed million rather than the 50 50 chance at 25 mill. Who said I think its impossible to make a million. Greed kills mang I'd rather take the safe route.
Jayboogz is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -8. The time now is 09:38 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
SEO by vBSEO ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Revscene.net cannot be held accountable for the actions of its members nor does the opinions of the members represent that of Revscene.net