Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Liquid_o2

WAT

Are we nearing $1 million for east side townhouses now?

We're past that for townhouses around Lougheed Mall. Just happened yesterday, friend's townhouse. 7 offers, 2 of the buyers waited with their agents outside the house while offers were reviewed.

Makes my $1.1M 1900sf East Van duplex suddenly feel like a bargain.

[Hondaracer]

where abouts at lougheed mall? which townhouses?

[IGTBAR]

Originally Posted by Bonka

Sold for $890k no conditions.

UGHHHHHHHH....

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

where abouts at lougheed mall? which townhouses?

Just south of Lougheed Mall station - 10 min walk around Government st.

My mind still throbs at how much it sold for.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

where abouts at lougheed mall? which townhouses?

95-9088 Halston Court, Burnaby, BC, Townhouse For Sale | REW.ca

I assume it's this one.

A 3 bed/3 bath in this complex sold for 825K last week.

[Mr.C]

The real estate market here is so bonkers that I'm actually looking at Sydney and thinking "hmmm, the prices are not too different... And I can make much more there... And I get to live near an actual beach..."

6/54 Ewos Pde Cronulla NSW 2230 - Apartment for Sale #122177638 - realestate.com.au

[westopher]

I'm starting to get really confused about where all this money comes from. Are like 95% of the people in this city making 6 figures a year? I understand about the foreign investment. The local investment. The rich people with second, third, or fourth homes here. The landlords. The old money. But as the ridiculous prices keep spreading outwards from the actual desirable areas, seriously, something has to give. Paying a million dollars for a townhouse in burnaby is a fucking laughable prospect. Its completely panic driven purchases.

[Mr.C]

Originally Posted by westopher

I'm starting to get really confused about where all this money comes from. Are like 95% of the people in this city making 6 figures a year? I understand about the foreign investment. The local investment. The rich people with second, third, or fourth homes here. The landlords. The old money. But as the ridiculous prices keep spreading outwards from the actual desirable areas, seriously, something has to give. Paying a million dollars for a townhouse in burnaby is a fucking laughable prospect. Its completely panic driven purchases.

From the TD Website:

For a 30 year mortgage for $1,000,000.00 at the rate of 4.64%, your Monthly payment is:
Mortgage Payment:$5,123.92
Insurance Payment:$0.00
Total Monthly Payment:$5,123.92

Five. Thousand. Dollars.

Before taxes and repairs.

Like, how much do you need to be making to afford that, realistically? The "rule of thumb" is 30-32% of income towards mortgage & taxes/fees. So your family would have to be *netting* 180k per year to play it safe. That's, like, grossing 140k per year per person for a couple.

For something like a 1.2m house.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills throughout this thread, and time and time again the market has demonstrated being completely irrational.

[4444]

Originally Posted by westopher

I'm starting to get really confused about where all this money comes from. Are like 95% of the people in this city making 6 figures a year? I understand about the foreign investment. The local investment. The rich people with second, third, or fourth homes here. The landlords. The old money. But as the ridiculous prices keep spreading outwards from the actual desirable areas, seriously, something has to give. Paying a million dollars for a townhouse in burnaby is a fucking laughable prospect. Its completely panic driven purchases.

I recall a report a couple of years ago which was either for Vancouver or BC (sorry, can't recall) stating that only 5% of workers earn >$100,000

That's slightly scary that 95% of workers (let alone those that don't work) earn less than $100,000.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Mr.C

From the TD Website:

For a 30 year mortgage for $1,000,000.00 at the rate of 4.64%, your Monthly payment is:
Mortgage Payment:$5,123.92
Insurance Payment:$0.00
Total Monthly Payment:$5,123.92

Ratehub tells me that based on a gross family income of 130K with a 230K down payment, one could get financing on a home valued up to $1.1 million. This is based on a 2.44% 5-year fixed rate which is available to anyone today through the broker channel. I'm not saying that one should buy a million dollar home with a small down payment, but it can be done. Payments on the mortgage would be just over 3000 per month. So, you're probably looking at about 4000 per month when it comes to total housing costs. Big difference.

I know why you used an interest rate of 4.64% in your example (because the historical average between 2000-2010 was around 5%), but it isn't really relevant in the current market. Interest rates are likely to remain low for the next several quarters. Buy now, worry later.

[Nlkko]

Originally Posted by westopher

I'm starting to get really confused about where all this money comes from. Are like 95% of the people in this city making 6 figures a year? I understand about the foreign investment. The local investment. The rich people with second, third, or fourth homes here. The landlords. The old money. But as the ridiculous prices keep spreading outwards from the actual desirable areas, seriously, something has to give. Paying a million dollars for a townhouse in burnaby is a fucking laughable prospect. Its completely panic driven purchases.

It is... The power of FOMO is pretty astonishing in any investment market actually. Price can ignore fundamentals and keep going up for seemingly forever.

I think the answer to your question is "foreign" investors snatching it left and right, then locals who are for some reason, have to have a detached home, bit the bullet and mortgage their lives and their children lives to keep up with the bid. The cycle continues. until somebody stop or there are foreign intervention (government).

[nah]

Until locals (working class) stop being able to get a mortgage for a 1.5M house, this crazyness will continue.

[quasi]

In my neighborhood I swear I'm the only person within blocks that doesn't have a suite which is not helping the issue as far as density goes here. In order to afford these houses most people need the extra income to help pay there mortgage. If I had to put a suite in my house I'd downsize and move into a townhouse or a condo, no fucking way I'm dealing with that bullshit but that's just a personal decision.

My wife and I both work and make decent incomes, again no way in hell I'd take on a 700 or 800K mortgage on a million dollar home with 300 down. I guess it's the world were living in but I want no part of that crap, I'd pickup and move somewhere else before I did that. I plan to be mortgage free before 50, I hit 40 a few months ago so head down and stick to the plan.

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

95-9088 Halston Court, Burnaby, BC, Townhouse For Sale | REW.ca

I assume it's this one.

A 3 bed/3 bath in this complex sold for 825K last week.

Right complex, different unit. 4bed/4bath corner instead. 2000sf listed for $899 I think.

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Mr.C

From the TD Website:

For a 30 year mortgage for $1,000,000.00 at the rate of 4.64%, your Monthly payment is:
Mortgage Payment:$5,123.92
Insurance Payment:$0.00
Total Monthly Payment:$5,123.92

Five. Thousand. Dollars.

Before taxes and repairs.

Like, how much do you need to be making to afford that, realistically? The "rule of thumb" is 30-32% of income towards mortgage & taxes/fees. So your family would have to be *netting* 180k per year to play it safe. That's, like, grossing 140k per year per person for a couple.

For something like a 1.2m house.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills throughout this thread, and time and time again the market has demonstrated being completely irrational.

Minimum downpayment for a $1M+ home is 20% and it's pretty easy to get a 2.5% mortgage right now. I'm carrying a $900K mortgage at 1.95% so payments are about $3300/mo. The basement suite generates $1300 in rent making things pretty manageable for us.

The hard part for most people is coming up with the downpayment - I had equity from my condo and the wife saved a lot over the years. Fortunately, we were able to do it without borrowing or taking gifts from our parents. I was adamant that we not effectively take an "early inheritance" from our parents, they're retired low income (but high net worth) folks.

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by quasi

My wife and I both work and make decent incomes, again no way in hell I'd take on a 700 or 800K mortgage on a million dollar home with 300 down. I guess it's the world were living in but I want no part of that crap, I'd pickup and move somewhere else before I did that. I plan to be mortgage free before 50, I hit 40 a few months ago so head down and stick to the plan.

Then again, some people were brought up that way so that type of mentality is deeply ingrained.
Brother's friend, 43 and his 38 year old wife.
Both work, total income is $140-160K range.
Both work at the bank and were approved for $1.1M mortgage.
Their plan was to sell their house in Coquitlam where they have $300K in equity and move back to Vancouver to be closer to their parents.
The houses they were looking at are all newer houses with 2 rental suites plus the lane way house.
Yeah, at $2.1M range, that, imo, is way beyond their means but to them it makes really good sense to have those 3 rental incomes.

[melloman]

Honestly, it's not about how much someone makes, it's the bank giving out these crazy approvals for mortgages people can't sustain.

Same shit happened in the US. 2008 housing crash, peoples interest rates went sky high, they couldn't afford their home anymore and had to either sell or foreclose on it. The issue with Vancouver is, if this happens, the locals get pushed out and the foreign investors stay. Locals are stretching themselves to get into the market because of; panic.

I will happily wait and see if this crash ever happens, then cash in on the poor souls who can't afford their stupid decision anymore.

[roopi]

Originally Posted by SumAznGuy

Yeah, at $2.1M range, that, imo, is way beyond their means but to them it makes really good sense to have those 3 rental incomes.

Carry a 1.8 million mortgage at $6000-7000 a month an bring in $3000-$4000 in rental income is very doable. Is it smart? Not sure. Risky if the house value drops but great if it increases as your mortgage is being paid.

Basically what everyone is doing.

[Liquid_o2]

Whether the market dips, crashes, or stabilizes remains to be seen. However people are definitely taking on much much more than they can afford. My GF and I both make good money as young professionals, but can't imagine taking on a mortgage that is 8 to 10 times our annual gross income. Shit, Vancouver's median household income is like $70,000, we are more than double that and struggling to find something decent in a range that we are comfortable with.

Remember that this forum's average income bracket is probably much higher than the Metro Vancouver average, and that the majority of people out there are just scraping by to make ends meet.

There is also the question of whether you should be buying a house that has two income helpers, and the ONLY way you can afford it is because of them. It's obviously not that big a gamble now because the rental vacancy rate is so low, but I still don't see it a wise decision that a homeowner is solely relying on their tenants to pay their mortgage on a monthly basis, that would freak me out.

Everyday I get mail from realtors displaying houses in the Main and Fraser areas going for $150,000 over asking and wondering who the hell is putting in these crazy bids. Are they young families? Locals downsizing from the westside? Overseas Asian buyers? People who are irrationally making purchases they shouldn't? Or is everyone a freakin millionaire in this city.

Either way, I refuse to be part of this madness.

[winson604]

It is madness, it scares me sometimes thinking this time next year I'll be starting to pay a crazy mortgage. Wife and I combined are over 6 figures but not like crazy over 6 figures. Based on my monthly calculations of mortgage (at current rate) strata, hydro, P tax, and all our month expenses even down to cell phones and tv we should be pretty good with plenty left over to not be house poor. With that said, if anyone needs a kidney, I may have 1 for sale

[Drow]

Originally Posted by supafamous

Minimum downpayment for a $1M+ home is 20% and it's pretty easy to get a 2.5% mortgage right now. I'm carrying a $900K mortgage at 1.95% so payments are about $3300/mo.

2.5% mortgage is attainable sure, through 2/3/4 year mortgage fixed rate terms, or 5 year variable. 5 year fixed at 2.5% not do-able by the banks.

Nice rate you have there at Prime - 0.75%, when you renew your mortgage you are in for a treat

[Harvey Specter]

Posted on the Sun website:

Two for one: Couple sells Vancouver house to buy pair of New West properties:

Two for one: Couple sells Vancouver house to buy pair of New West properties | Vancouver Sun

[Tapioca]

Here's the dilemma a lot of young professionals are probably facing right now. You and your partner probably make a decent amount of money, have connections (which can take years to build), and may or may not a small amount of savings or equity from a starter condo. Do you leave and take jobs in a regional centre, like Kelowna or Prince George where there's no guarantee that you'll make the equivalent salary? (one person might, but the other may not) What if you have ailing parents? Do you leave them and take flights into town every couple of months to do stuff, like take them to the doctor or cut their grass? Maybe it's worth the lower cost of living, but these are tough questions.

If you don't have citizenship or the right of abode in somewhere like the EU and cannot qualify for a TN/HB visa in the States, where else would you go in Canada? Toronto is just as bad in terms of real estate. I could fathom a place like Calgary which is at least somewhat cosmopolitan and has recreation nearby, but where else? Saskatoon? Winnipeg? Ottawa? Halifax? Sure, you could raise a family in Saskatoon, or Medicine Hat, but no one wants to retire there. As others on this forum have stated, people from Ontario dream of coming to BC.

If you're already in the market with a condo, do you cash out? Put a quarter of the proceeds into bonds and the remaining into equities and hope you obtain a return of 6-7% after taxes? Rent a basement suite for 1500/month and budget/factor in a move every 3-5 years? Or, perhaps you get on a list for co-op housing, pass the interviews, etc. and hope that a level of government continues to keep subsidizing your rent?

[6o4__boi]

saw this article this morning

The three-bedroom challenge: Space in short supply for Vancouver families

But finding a three-bedroom unit in their price range of about $750,000 has been nearly impossible.

“They just don’t seem to be in the market,” Matthew said. “We find a lot of townhomes, which are great and we’d be happy to do that, if we could afford it. When we looked at three-bedroom condos, they just didn’t really exist.”

$750K
$750K
$750K
$750K

[dat_steve]

Originally Posted by westopher

I'm starting to get really confused about where all this money comes from.

A close friend just purchased a house with her husband. Doubt they make 6 figures each, but probably pretty close (gross). Only way they could afford a relatively decent down payment was to take out a LOC secured by her parents' house. even then the payments are pretty huge. I'm guessing this is how a lot of people whose families aren't super well off are doing it. Makes me cringe to think of using debt to get more debt.