Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Ch28]

Originally Posted by Special K

Joys of owning a home. I live in a detached which has a separate garage facing an alley in East Vancouver.

My neighbour has been rolling his green bins over to my side of the fence. It bothers me but it's fine because it causes no trouble.

Now in the summer, they dumped foam insulation in front of my garage (wall part, not gate). I asked him nicely to not place it on my side. He bluntly said "what's your problem, the alley is not your property. I can put it in front of your fence." Me: wtf?

Today, I came home to a portable heater and an ironing board leaning against my garage.

What should I do?? Trying to find an appropriate solution.

Originally Posted by Special K

Appropriate measures guys. I'm searching for peaceful resolution, not something that will get my house burned down.

The thing is I don't have undisputable evidence that he put it there. It's easy to toss it back but unlikely to resolve anything.

Superglue every single exposed keyhole he has (cars parked outside, garage door locks, back & front door locks)

Buy several off these (Liquid ASS Fart Spray) and then unscrew the cap and straight up pour that shit into any exterior air vents he has on his car. Guaranteed he'll need several detailing appointments before that stuff will even start to reduce in potency. I guess you could just empty them through his door's mail slot if he has one as well.

[Mr.Money]

bought 2 of those Liquid ASS Fart Spray,that entire fucking thing in a mail box hole is gonna be room filling to say the least.

[buhdeh]

Originally Posted by Nlkko

You're quoting a bunch of realtors coming out telling people to buy. I'm sure it will be fine.

It is normal people here fighting for more price increase. They have vested interest. Imagine you have no clue about investment, all of a sudden price went ballistic to the upside. Everyone looks like geniuses "beating the market". They will keep defending if price keep dropping.

Imo, Vancouver is barely at stage 5. Alberta is at stage 8-9.

It's Carl Johnson, what do you expect. Christy Clark could release a statement tomorrow on how she expects Vancouver's economy to grow 800% next year and he'd believe it.

[Tapioca]

Since everyone who doesn't own that coveted detached house is hoping for a crash, let's think of "what if".

Let's say the prices of detached houses in East Vancouver/Burnaby fell to 3 times the median family income. This would mean the average home should sell for 400-500K.

Who here has 100-150k sitting in the bank? Who's actually ready to put down that 20% and can service the payments?

[hypediss]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Since everyone who doesn't own that coveted detached house is hoping for a crash, let's think of "what if".

Let's say the prices of detached houses in East Vancouver/Burnaby fell to 3 times the median family income. This would mean the average home should sell it 400-500K.

Who here has 100-150k sitting in the bank? Who's actually ready to put down that 20% and can service the payments?

*raises hand*

but in reality that type of "correction/crash/w/e u call it" would could yield or be a result of a large systematic economic shock that makes all of our jobs be at risk

[!LittleDragon]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Since everyone who doesn't own that coveted detached house is hoping for a crash, let's think of "what if".

Let's say the prices of detached houses in East Vancouver/Burnaby fell to 3 times the median family income. This would mean the average home should sell for 400-500K.

Who here has 100-150k sitting in the bank? Who's actually ready to put down that 20% and can service the payments?

Yup... and the dividend from what I didn't use for a downpayment can probably pay for the mortgage payments too. Or at least a large portion of it.

[VR6GTI]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Since everyone who doesn't own that coveted detached house is hoping for a crash, let's think of "what if".

Let's say the prices of detached houses in East Vancouver/Burnaby fell to 3 times the median family income. This would mean the average home should sell for 400-500K.

Who here has 100-150k sitting in the bank? Who's actually ready to put down that 20% and can service the payments?

Im crossing my fingers this will happen but thats only a dream.
I could buy a detached house, rent it out. Live in my townhouse and wait for the market to come back in a few years.

[ncrx]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Since everyone who doesn't own that coveted detached house is hoping for a crash, let's think of "what if".

Let's say the prices of detached houses in East Vancouver/Burnaby fell to 3 times the median family income. This would mean the average home should sell for 400-500K.

Who here has 100-150k sitting in the bank? Who's actually ready to put down that 20% and can service the payments?

There are a ton of people waiting in the wings with those kinds of down payments, or with selling what they have under them. I made that alone from selling my condo i owned for a year and a half.

That kind of correction won't happen without an interest rate increase of minimum 2.5-3.5% plus a mass exodus of people.
i bought in 07 a 650k house at about 6.5% in Vancouver, sure i was eating rice and ketchup for 6 months, but i managed.

Credit is cheap and not going anywhere for the forseeable future
a 10-20% correction would allow a shit ton of ppl waiting on the sidelines at current interest rates to jump into the market.

[Mr.C]

A 10-20% correction would bring the market back to what it was in 2015; nothing affordable by any means.

[MarkyMark]

Don't you only need 20% down to avoid paying mortgage insurance?

[GLOW]

Correct.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/moloin/faq_006.cfm

3. When does my lender need mortgage loan insurance?
Typically lenders will require mortgage loan insurance if a borrower has a down payment of less than 20% of the purchase price of the home.

By protecting lenders against borrower default, CMHC Mortgage Loan Insurance creates an opportunity for Canadians to realize their dreams of homeownership.

[hud 91gt]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Since everyone who doesn't own that coveted detached house is hoping for a crash, let's think of "what if".

Let's say the prices of detached houses in East Vancouver/Burnaby fell to 3 times the median family income. This would mean the average home should sell for 400-500K.

Who here has 100-150k sitting in the bank? Who's actually ready to put down that 20% and can service the payments?

"Raises hand". I'd be all over an east side special. Also a reason why it's all under my mattress (figure of speech), as if we see that kind of a drop, I'm assuming most investments would be dropping too.


I'd say 3 of 4 of my closest friends are in a very similar situation as myself. The 4th has the income but I doubt he has 20%, but you never know.

[ncrx]

Originally Posted by Mr.C

A 10-20% correction would bring the market back to what it was in 2015; nothing affordable by any means.

Doesn't mean there aren't people who can afford property at this price point at current interest rates.

A 10-20% reduction in a 500k condo to say 420k goes a long way for people shopping at this price segment.

It's the low cost of credit propping prices up.

500K at 6.5% 25yrs 5yr term 3400$ a month
500k at 2.2% 25yrs 5yr term 2200$ a month
750k at 2.2% 25yrs 5yr term 3400$ a month

What I could afford in 2007 500k at 6.5%, vs now is a 750k mortgage at 2.2%, not including any gains in personal wealth ability to put a larger down payment, cap gains i've made in the past 9yrs, or ability to afford more by making more on an annual basis

[Spoon]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Who here has 100-150k sitting in the bank? Who's actually ready to put down that 20% and can service the payments?

I assume most people who don't have money in real estate have it in other forms of investments which more than likely appreciated (just not as crazy as the former).

[Mr.C]

Originally Posted by ncrx

Doesn't mean there aren't people who can afford property at this price point at current interest rates.

A 10-20% reduction in a 500k condo to say 420k goes a long way for people shopping at this price segment.

It's the low cost of credit propping prices up.

500K at 6.5% 25yrs 5yr term 3400$ a month
500k at 2.2% 25yrs 5yr term 2200$ a month
750k at 2.2% 25yrs 5yr term 3400$ a month

What I could afford in 2007 500k at 6.5%, vs now is a 750k mortgage at 2.2%, not including any gains in personal wealth ability to put a larger down payment, cap gains i've made in the past 9yrs, or ability to afford more by making more on an annual basis

Well, yeah, there's always people who can afford, but will it be enough?

That remains to be seen; go back several dozen pages and you will see many proclaiming that demand would never slow down in Vancouver... Yeah...

August sales numbers are going to be downright ugly.

[ncrx]

Originally Posted by Mr.C

Well, yeah, there's always people who can afford, but will it be enough?

That remains to be seen; go back several dozen pages and you will see many proclaiming that demand would never slow down in Vancouver... Yeah...

August sales numbers are going to be downright ugly.

No buyers, no sellers

people who arent in need of selling simply won't sell.. i dont see how someone is going to realize an immediate 20% loss unless they're in dire circumstances forcing them to sell

just b/c sales numbers are ugly doesn't mean suddenly everyone's dropping their house on the market for a fat discount

[kr4l]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Since everyone who doesn't own that coveted detached house is hoping for a crash, let's think of "what if".

Let's say the prices of detached houses in East Vancouver/Burnaby fell to 3 times the median family income. This would mean the average home should sell for 400-500K.

Who here has 100-150k sitting in the bank? Who's actually ready to put down that 20% and can service the payments?

Haha everyone jumping at 400-500k. GOOD LUCK!

I and many others will outbid you pretty damn quick

Edit: forgot to mention but you better pray the foreign buyer tax is at 200%

[VR6GTI]

Originally Posted by ncrx

No buyers, no sellers

people who arent in need of selling simply won't sell.. i dont see how someone is going to realize an immediate 20% loss unless they're in dire circumstances forcing them to sell

just b/c sales numbers are ugly doesn't mean suddenly everyone's dropping their house on the market for a fat discount

.
It would interesting to see how much inventory has come for sale compared to last years august.
People are now hearing the horror stories that the market is slow and not putting anything up for sale

[Spoon]

The Fed's getting ready to increase their interest rates if not September then December. While I don't expect the BoC to follow suit immediately, there will be a lot of pressure to do so in a quarter or two. Those will be interesting times.

[jasonturbo]

Some of these comments...???

There is a tremendous number of people with massive equity in their homes strictly through appreciation in the market.

For the people who bought houses @ 750K that are now worth 1.3M, especially the people who own multiple homes... you don't think they will want to cash those chips in if the market sentiment shifts 100% to bearish???? I would rather sell at 1.1M than 900K, and this is why most housing "crashes" happen so quickly.

It's not like most people are losing 200K by selling their homes @ -20% of peak values, many are still walking away with a tidy profit.

It's only the people who have entered the market over the last 5 years that have the potential to really get roasted, those who got in 10-12 years ago have quite the financial cushion.

I doubt prices will ever drop beyond 2008 prices, and personally, I think that price point is completely reasonable.

As I've said before, "affordability" is 100% driven by interest rates... if the rates go up, the prices will come down.

[hud 91gt]

Originally Posted by ncrx

No buyers, no sellers

people who arent in need of selling simply won't sell.. i dont see how someone is going to realize an immediate 20% loss unless they're in dire circumstances forcing them to sell

just b/c sales numbers are ugly doesn't mean suddenly everyone's dropping their house on the market for a fat discount

I think what your missing is the fact people are not robots. Just like people jump in in fear of missing out, they will also jump out in fear of a drop. It's a domino effect. People who just made 40% equity
On their house in a year aren't all that concerned to lose a few percentage points if they think they can outsmart the market, especially if they are stretched (which most Canadians are).


edit: Jason put it much more eloquently.

[!LittleDragon]

Don't forget that price is a lagging indicator. First the volume dries up then price follows months later.

Things are going to be stalled for a while before prices really slide. Everyone remembers the US crash of 2007 but don't know that things peaked and stalled in 2006.

[yray]

prices drop 15%

waaahh tax covered, lets buy lah

[Sw0op]

Why would you do a panic sell when you can rent it out since the rental market is so bad?

I know a few people with multiple properties and are renting out. They aren't talking about selling when it drops they want to pick up more. If they are cash flow positive or covering their mortgages now they'd be even further ahead if they can score a place at a cheaper deal

Foreign buyers are one thing that affected this growth but if I can buy and have someone pay for my mortgage or be positive cf then it makes sense at least for the time being

I bought a place a few months ago with the fiancé. Things are slow now and prices will fall but are we going to sell? No....its just part of the wave and we will ride it out. Not everyone thinks of homes as an investment. We need a place to live and that's why me and my friends bought in

[ncrx]

Originally Posted by hud 91gt

I think what your missing is the fact people are not robots. Just like people jump in in fear of missing out, they will also jump out in fear of a drop. It's a domino effect. People who just made 40% equity
On their house in a year aren't all that concerned to lose a few percentage points if they think they can outsmart the market, especially if they are stretched (which most Canadians are).


edit: Jason put it much more eloquently.

sure assuming you have something to downsize too

i have no bone to pick with this, all my properties were purchased pre 2008
whether the market drops 20-50-80%, someone else is paying for them neways