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Old 03-03-2013, 07:57 PM   #1
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China's real estate bubble

From 60 minutes.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50142079n
discuss.

The amount of wasted resources and money is unreal.
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Old 03-03-2013, 07:59 PM   #2
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embedded video doesn't seem to be working

"http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50142079n"
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Old 03-03-2013, 09:43 PM   #3
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Whenever a US media outlet decides to write a story about China (their biggest creditor), you must accept that there will be a degree of US propaganda and that they will only present one-side of the story to reflect their view.

Although it is true that there are many residential lots sitting vacant in China. The reason that they are vacant is because the investors are hoping to flip the property and does not want ANY tenants to move in. The reason behind that, which goes against western belief, is that as soon as a tenant moves in to occupy a new property. The value of the estate loses its value by half because it's no longer a new property, and it cannot be re-listed again as a new property, as it had been occupied. Also, unlike in North America, property tax in China is not nearly as high, so investors can afford to keep their properties vacant while waiting for an opportunity to flip.

I particularly enjoyed the scenes when the female asked the guy if any of the properties were sold, and when the guy replies and says "yes". She doesn't go further into asking why the buyers don't live there, or don't push hard enough to get it occupied.

Last edited by willystyle; 03-03-2013 at 09:54 PM.
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Old 03-03-2013, 09:58 PM   #4
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Whenever a US media outlet decides to write a story about China (their biggest creditor), you must accept that there will be a degree of US propaganda and that they will only present one-side of the story to reflect their view.

Although it is true that there are many residential lots sitting vacant in China. The reason that they are vacant is because the investors are hoping to flip the property and does not want ANY tenants to move in. The reason behind that, which goes against western belief, is that as soon as a tenant moves in to occupy a new property. The value of the estate loses its value by half because it's no longer a new property, and it cannot be re-listed again as a new property, as it had been occupied. Also, unlike in North America, property tax in China is not nearly as high, so investors can afford to keep their properties vacant while waiting for an opportunity to flip.

I particularly enjoyed the scenes when the female asked the guy if any of the properties were sold, and when the guy replies and says "yes". She doesn't go further into asking why the buyers don't live there, or don't push hard enough to get it occupied.
They said outright these projects are built and then bought up by people because that is the only way they can invest their money. It's not about "cultural" reasons.
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Old 03-03-2013, 10:00 PM   #5
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Whenever a US media outlet decides to write a story about China (their biggest creditor), you must accept that there will be a degree of US propaganda and that they will only present one-side of the story to reflect their view.

Although it is true that there are many residential lots sitting vacant in China. The reason that they are vacant is because the investors are hoping to flip the property and does not want ANY tenants to move in. The reason behind that, which goes against western belief, is that as soon as a tenant moves in to occupy a new property. The value of the estate loses its value by half because it's no longer a new property, and it cannot be re-listed again as a new property, as it had been occupied. Also, unlike in North America, property tax in China is not nearly as high, so investors can afford to keep their properties vacant while waiting for an opportunity to flip.

I particularly enjoyed the scenes when the female asked the guy if any of the properties were sold, and when the guy replies and says "yes". She doesn't go further into asking why the buyers don't live there, or don't push hard enough to get it occupied.
There have been documentaries from many other countries (Britain, Germany, various parts of Europe, I think RTHK even did one) saying the same thing. It's not propaganda, it's what educated people are saying... Are they predicting the future? Only time will tell. But one thing is for sure, a country can't stay on the upswing forever.
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Old 03-03-2013, 10:29 PM   #6
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They said outright these projects are built and then bought up by people because that is the only way they can invest their money. It's not about "cultural" reasons.
Did you not read my comment at all? I said that these projects were built and purchased immediately after by investors. I don't see your argument.

Also, what do you mean by, "that is the only way they can invest their money"?
I wonder why our real estate market is so Chinese investor driven. You really think that if they had money they can't move the money outside of China? Just go talk to a banker.

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Old 03-03-2013, 10:36 PM   #7
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There have been documentaries from many other countries (Britain, Germany, various parts of Europe, I think RTHK even did one) saying the same thing. It's not propaganda, it's what educated people are saying... Are they predicting the future? Only time will tell. But one thing is for sure, a country can't stay on the upswing forever.
The west (including the countries you've named) don't want to see the rise and potential success of an Asian superpower that they have very little understanding about. China is one of the very few powerful countries who hasn't succumb to U.S. suppression (South Korea, Japan, among others had). Of course, what goes up, must come down. No one will argue that China will continue to grow economically forever.

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Old 03-03-2013, 11:36 PM   #8
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The west (including the countries you've named) don't want to see the rise and potential success of an Asian superpower that they have very little understanding about. China is one of the very few powerful countries who hasn't succumb to U.S. suppression (South Korea, Japan, among others had). Of course, what goes up, must come down. No one will argue that China will continue to grow economically forever.
But your argument is that these people are stating things because you think they don't want China to succeed... I don't want to say you're dumb for thinking that, but it you are letting yourself believe in an ad hominem logical fallacy, and that's really clouding your judgement.
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Old 03-03-2013, 11:49 PM   #9
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Did you not read my comment at all? I said that these projects were built and purchased immediately after by investors. I don't see your argument.

Also, what do you mean by, "that is the only way they can invest their money"?
I wonder why our real estate market is so Chinese investor driven. You really think that if they had money they can't move the money outside of China? Just go talk to a banker.
They might be able to move the money out of China, but they have to grease a few gears along the way. Not everyone will be able to buy international property. Chinese buying here and in other nice places are only China's super rich. The average middle class Chinese will buy one or more of those 50K - 100K condos and hope the price will appreciate over time. I wonder though, who will they sell it to?
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Old 03-04-2013, 12:03 AM   #10
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But your argument is that these people are stating things because you think they don't want China to succeed... I don't want to say you're dumb for thinking that, but it you are letting yourself believe in an ad hominem logical fallacy, and that's really clouding your judgement.
I don't think my opinion is based on ad hominem logical fallacy. I can come up with many points to support my views, but that's a discussion for a different topic and would defeat the purpose of this thread.

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They might be able to move the money out of China, but they have to grease a few gears along the way. Not everyone will be able to buy international property. Chinese buying here and in other nice places are only China's super rich. The average middle class Chinese will buy one or more of those 50K - 100K condos and hope the price will appreciate over time. I wonder though, who will they sell it to?
It's a waiting game for those who had invested. They believe they've made the right decision, and will wait it out to sell it back to the Chinese.

What's super rich? Rich is subjective. In Canada, you only need a minimal investment of 300,000CAD into the Canadian economy then you can permanently reside here. 300,000CAD is hardly super rich. Average house in Van is 600K or so, total investment, that's less than a million. I still don't think you need to be super rich to be here.
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:30 AM   #11
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But your argument is that these people are stating things because you think they don't want China to succeed... I don't want to say you're dumb for thinking that, but it you are letting yourself believe in an ad hominem logical fallacy, and that's really clouding your judgement.
I dont think the US wants china to not succeed, China and the states rely heavily on each other for trade. Canada and australia especially rely on China for their demand for commodities.

No one in their right mind wants a country to fail economically.
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:34 AM   #12
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On a related topic, February's Real estate sales stats came out, and it looks like the number of sales have continue to trend downwards.

Number of sales have gone down about 30% below 10 year February averages.

Part of me is happy that there over-saturated realtors market will be hit badly and many realtors will have to switch careers.
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:37 AM   #13
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I dont think the US wants china to not succeed, China and the states rely heavily on each other for trade. Canada and australia especially rely on China for their demand for commodities.

No one in their right mind wants a country to fail economically.
Of course, but my main point is, whether they want to or not has nothing to do with what these people speculate. He is giving the literal definition of an ad hominem logical fallacy, and on top of that adds an anecdotal logical fallacy to the mix, saying how Chinese people don't want tenants living in property they plan to flip. And for good measure, he adds a third logical fallacy - appeal to emotion - into the mix with his reply. That PRC is the only "Asian Super Power" to not "succumb" to the US "suppression".

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Old 03-04-2013, 12:07 PM   #14
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Of course, but my main point is, whether they want to or not has nothing to do with what these people speculate. He is giving the literal definition of an ad hominem logical fallacy, and on top of that adds an anecdotal logical fallacy to the mix, saying how Chinese people don't want tenants living in property they plan to flip. And for good measure, he adds a third logical fallacy - appeal to emotion - into the mix with his reply. That PRC is the only "Asian Super Power" to not "succumb" to the US "suppression".

Yes keep making accusations and mis-interpreting what I wrote. I'll let you have it.

You feel better now?
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Old 03-04-2013, 02:17 PM   #15
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No one in their right mind wants a country to fail economically.
that's not true.

There's lots of bears out there. I'll be laughing all the way to the bank if economy collapses.

to make it better, it's not just gaining money, but everyone you is losing money.

so your buying power is actually more.

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Old 03-04-2013, 03:46 PM   #16
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No one in their right mind wants a country to fail economically.
Tell that to Goldman Sach's that deceived the U.S. congress and investors by betting against the sub-prime mortgage market, while profited billions from the 2008 U.S. crash.

You're living in fantasyland if you believe that there are some that won't deliberately devastate the masses for their own selfish gains.
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Old 03-04-2013, 03:50 PM   #17
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That's downright terrifying. When was the last time someone rich and/or powerful openly said there could be massive social unrest if the bubble burst, and actually considered it a possibility?
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Old 03-04-2013, 04:20 PM   #18
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The west (including the countries you've named) don't want to see the rise and potential success of an Asian superpower that they have very little understanding about. China is one of the very few powerful countries who hasn't succumb to U.S. suppression (South Korea, Japan, among others had). Of course, what goes up, must come down. No one will argue that China will continue to grow economically forever.
From what I can see, the country of "America" may not want to see China boom, but "Americans" seem to be doing whatever they can to hand over as much success, at a terrifying rate to China as possible.

The answer to the current problems of: wealth distribution, the economy, and the current recession are embedded in the hand over of manufacturing to China(and asia). At first it was great...China is going to do all the dirty work that 'we' don't want to do. We'll become an information economy. Now, there are hoards of Americans that would do anything for that choice again.

By default, the further problems of health care and education come out from not having a thriving middle class to support a tax base.

Now you have a congress that is currently fighting for scraps. Honestly..scraps. It doesn't matter. Sequester. Debt ceiling. Fiscal cliff. The horse is out of the barn, and they are arguing about who is going to close the door a smidge. We'll still leave it open, but not as much.

Between a tax code that implies a company and individuals should just off shore thier money, and while you do that, just make the shit elsewhere too...its written into the system that its cheaper and better to off-shore manufacturing. It could be closed tomorrow. You know how cheap it is to send a container from China to the US? Thousands. That's....nothing, in terms of the value of products IN the container. It's a no-brainer.

Instead of closing the loophole, they continue to bicker about what to do with the rest of the scraps. And they make a damned fine show of it too.

I always think to Henry Ford. You read about him, and in a time of less than $1 day wages, he instituted a $5 a day wage. He wanted his employees to be able to be customers.

Now eventually, he still had problems with unions wanting more which is a whole other level to this issue...but he got at the time that the money he paid out, was going to come back.

It's been lost on a lot of companies today.

So,no, there may be a lot of propoganda on China from the US, but its very much a love hate relationship.
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Old 03-04-2013, 05:34 PM   #19
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From what I can see, the country of "America" may not want to see China boom, but "Americans" seem to be doing whatever they can to hand over as much success, at a terrifying rate to China as possible.

The answer to the current problems of: wealth distribution, the economy, and the current recession are embedded in the hand over of manufacturing to China(and asia). At first it was great...China is going to do all the dirty work that 'we' don't want to do. We'll become an information economy. Now, there are hoards of Americans that would do anything for that choice again.

By default, the further problems of health care and education come out from not having a thriving middle class to support a tax base.

Now you have a congress that is currently fighting for scraps. Honestly..scraps. It doesn't matter. Sequester. Debt ceiling. Fiscal cliff. The horse is out of the barn, and they are arguing about who is going to close the door a smidge. We'll still leave it open, but not as much.

Between a tax code that implies a company and individuals should just off shore thier money, and while you do that, just make the shit elsewhere too...its written into the system that its cheaper and better to off-shore manufacturing. It could be closed tomorrow. You know how cheap it is to send a container from China to the US? Thousands. That's....nothing, in terms of the value of products IN the container. It's a no-brainer.

Instead of closing the loophole, they continue to bicker about what to do with the rest of the scraps. And they make a damned fine show of it too.

I always think to Henry Ford. You read about him, and in a time of less than $1 day wages, he instituted a $5 a day wage. He wanted his employees to be able to be customers.

Now eventually, he still had problems with unions wanting more which is a whole other level to this issue...but he got at the time that the money he paid out, was going to come back.

It's been lost on a lot of companies today.

So,no, there may be a lot of propoganda on China from the US, but its very much a love hate relationship.

Companies have an interest and responsibility to be accountable to their shareholders, these shareholders unfortunately dont care about long term gains.

They want to be able to maximize profits by :
1 offshoring profits, they pay less taxes.
2 offshoring manufacturing , COGS decreases
3 off-shoring labour to reduce expenses. All the jobs are lost to China, India etc and I dont think they are coming back.

Also, it's sort of a pseudo competitive market as a Few Large companies countrol about 80% of the market. Just look at the shelves in the super market, go to Toys-r-Us and you'll see that 2-3 companies create almost all the products there. They act in monopolistic or oligopolies methods to again, maximize profits.

These corporations also have shiet loads of money and lobby congress to cater to their ways.

I blame the whole political system in general, both parties. Instead of creating competitive markets, they let companies take-over their competitors until only large 2-3 corporations control an entire industry.

My parents had a size-able amount in savings accounts with Ally.ca at 1.8%, they are nearing retirement and don't want to endure any risks, so portfolio obvious is more cash based instruments. Yet RBC recently purchased Ally and are eliminating these high interest savings accounts.

Same thing with MBNA and their cashbacks when TD purchased them out.
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Old 03-04-2013, 05:40 PM   #20
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That's downright terrifying. When was the last time someone rich and/or powerful openly said there could be massive social unrest if the bubble burst, and actually considered it a possibility?
Uh just about every day since the dawn of human civilization?

Pretty much any and every rich/powerful person whose not in agreement with the current powers to be?

Modern day examples: Government, Religious Leaders, Corporate Heads, Hedge Fund Managers, Gold Bugs... ect ect

Also, unrelated to China, need to look no further than Obama, or his Republican Friends to see how much fear they can dredge up over the sequester in the US over the past few days.


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Old 03-04-2013, 06:19 PM   #21
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^^Am I the only one that finds those animations hilarious lol
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Old 03-04-2013, 07:09 PM   #22
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Companies have an interest and responsibility to be accountable to their shareholders, these shareholders unfortunately dont care about long term gains.

They want to be able to maximize profits by :
1 offshoring profits, they pay less taxes.
2 offshoring manufacturing , COGS decreases
3 off-shoring labour to reduce expenses. All the jobs are lost to China, India etc and I dont think they are coming back.

Also, it's sort of a pseudo competitive market as a Few Large companies countrol about 80% of the market. Just look at the shelves in the super market, go to Toys-r-Us and you'll see that 2-3 companies create almost all the products there. They act in monopolistic or oligopolies methods to again, maximize profits.

These corporations also have shiet loads of money and lobby congress to cater to their ways.

I blame the whole political system in general, both parties. Instead of creating competitive markets, they let companies take-over their competitors until only large 2-3 corporations control an entire industry.

My parents had a size-able amount in savings accounts with Ally.ca at 1.8%, they are nearing retirement and don't want to endure any risks, so portfolio obvious is more cash based instruments. Yet RBC recently purchased Ally and are eliminating these high interest savings accounts.

Same thing with MBNA and their cashbacks when TD purchased them out.
I totally agree. My point is, the tax laws, and trade laws in place not only make it an option to have those options to present to shareholders, but at this point seem to promote it.

I'm a conservative(fiscal-as I believe religion should be left out of it), and as much as I would want a minimal regulation, small gov't system...that's not what we have, and its not what we're working toward.

So to see that now you have china doing the craziness that they are doing-and I coudldn't help but parallel tto vancouver. They are just doing whatever they can to keep it going.

What helps? Mimimal regulation, a very loyal, non-questioing population(thanks communism) and a gov't that will directly influence the economy.

What needs to happen is that the US starts to realize what's happening, and starts actually working to change it. As of today, they don't seem to care. Right beside them? Canadians hoping for spill-over.
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Old 03-06-2013, 07:57 AM   #23
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