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Old 12-22-2014, 11:45 PM   #1
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"Russia's ex-finance in crisis warning, economic crisis will enter recession next yr"

Russia's former finance minister has warned the country is entering a "full blown economic crisis" and will enter recession next year.

"We are entering or have already entered a full-blown economic crisis, and we're going to feel it to the full next year,'' said Alexei Kudrin.

His warning came as Russia's central bank lent Trust Bank 30bn roubles (339m) to stop it going bankrupt.

It marks Russia's first bank bailout since the rouble's sharp collapse.

The Russian currency has lost more than 45% of its value against the dollar since the start of the year, with falling oil prices and Western sanctions both weighing on the country.

However, on Monday, the rouble increased 8% against the dollar, meaning it takes 54 roubles to buy a single dollar compared with 63 just a week ago.

Deputy prime minister Igor Shuvalov said he expected the rouble to rally further, and indicated the government would not intervene, saying it "opposes'' currency controls as a way to tackle the rouble crisis, and saw "more harm in them'' than potential advantages.

'Serious challenge'

Russia's central bank has already tried unsuccessfully to stabilise the currency, buying roubles in the markets and raising its main lending rate from 10.5% to 17%.

But those efforts have been overwhelmed by the fall in the price of crude oil - one of the country's main exports - and by concerns that international sanctions over Ukraine might be stepped up.

On Monday, Mr Kudrin said that even if the price of oil, currently trading at around $60 a barrel, rose to $80 a barrel the Russian economy would still contract by at least 2%. If oil remained at around its current level he said the economy would shrink by 4%.

"This is a serious challenge to the economy," he said.

He calculated that low oil prices accounted for as little as a quarter of the rouble's decline, with western sanctions against Russia accounting for 40%.

The Russian government warned earlier this month that the country would fall into recession next year as western sanctions and falling oil prices began to bite.

Its economic development ministry estimated the economy would contract by 0.8% next year, compared to its previous estimate of 1.2% growth.

BBC News - Russia's ex-finance boss in crisis warning but rouble rallies

So the oil price is casing the econ to fall?
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:51 PM   #2
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Serves Putin right for doing what they did in Ukraine.. He thought they were being the big red machine like the USSR was 20 years ago but times have changed and now they will pay the price for the decision's of not willing to pull out.
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:55 PM   #3
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but what's causing the currency to fall?
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:58 PM   #4
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but what's causing the currency to fall?
The Western sanctions are causing the currency to fail.
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:05 AM   #5
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but what's causing the currency to fall?
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The Western sanctions are causing the currency to fail.
Tie that in with with Russia's reliance on producing oil and the price of oil going way down.
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:06 AM   #6
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China has already pledged their case in fully supporting Russia from an imminent collapse, and I don't think they are doing as bad as BBC reports, as they've closed dozens of economic deals from neighboring countries to diversify their trades since the sanctions from the west. As a matter of fact, many European countries have lost billions of dollars in trades with Russia due to sanctions.

The drop in oil prices will only be temporary.
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:30 AM   #7
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Tie that in with with Russia's reliance on producing oil and the price of oil going way down.
That just made me curious how much oil the US actually imports from Russia..

I'm so surprised that they Import 42% of their oil from Canada.... Refine is and sell it back to us and we get fucked at the pump due to the taxes onto of taxes (its not like that in the US thats why it's always cheaper)

How much petroleum does the United States import and from where? - FAQ - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

They only import 7% from Russia but I'm sure other western counties have stopped importing the crude because of the western sanctions as well which is causing the price per barrel to drop since the refineries are still producing the same and the stock is plenty.

It's pretty sad when a country can only survive when they crude is selling at 100 a barrel but I can't feel sorry for those Russians since like I said already they brought it on them selves
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:53 AM   #8
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China has already pledged their case in fully supporting Russia from an imminent collapse, and I don't think they are doing as bad as BBC reports, as they've closed dozens of economic deals from neighboring countries to diversify their trades since the sanctions from the west. As a matter of fact, many European countries have lost billions of dollars in trades with Russia due to sanctions.

The drop in oil prices will only be temporary.
i'd love to see your proof of any of this.

European trade with new sanctions to Russia makes up a very small part of GDP, the effect has not been material other than the price of veggies going down (which has been great for me, personally!). please don't be ignorant to think trade with Russia has stopped, it really hasn't.

Russia is weak now, yes they have large foreign reserves and are utilizing them to try to prop up the Rouble, but the significant damage has been done, confidence is gone in the government and the currency, hence the recent run on anything deemed an asset, cars, tvs, high end clothes - as this value will remain vs. the Rouble, which is so weak right now. The effect of this is that many significant sellers have temporarily closed their doors, Renault-Nissan have stopped sales in Russia, Zara has closed its doors (I know this for a fact as a friend was just in Moscow this weekend and reported the latter to me), as they can't raise local currency prices fast enough nor can they price accurately/risk is too high in bringing in more product denominated in USD/EUR.

An awful lot of the economy in Russia is done in Euros or USD. A lot of commercial rents are in USD, which is causing a massive problem for retail stores selling in Roubles.

A lot of consumer items (smaller scale) are sold into the market at EUR or USD price, converted to Rouble, paid for in Rouble, and immediately converted back to EUR or USD (you have a 30 day window of currency exposure - which if that was the last 30 days, boy did you lose out).

Sadly Russia is weak but still has a strong mentality, it is far too natural resource reliant and has an expensive country to run given its scale and terrain. I wouldn't touch Russia with a 10 foot pole right now, and I especially wouldn't think confidence will return to that market any time soon.
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Old 12-23-2014, 01:02 AM   #9
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That just made me curious how much oil the US actually imports from Russia..

I'm so surprised that they Import 42% of their oil from Canada.... Refine is and sell it back to us and we get fucked at the pump due to the taxes onto of taxes (its not like that in the US thats why it's always cheaper)

How much petroleum does the United States import and from where? - FAQ - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

They only import 7% from Russia but I'm sure other western counties have stopped importing the crude because of the western sanctions as well which is causing the price per barrel to drop since the refineries are still producing the same and the stock is plenty.

It's pretty sad when a country can only survive when they crude is selling at 100 a barrel but I can't feel sorry for those Russians since like I said already they brought it on them selves
i don't believe this is true, that Europeans are not buying Russian oil and gas - as really, it's the main player in the game here.

North Sea oil provides some energy for UK, Scandinavia, some middle eastern oil comes to southern Europe via Turkey / lines through the Mediterranean, but Germany, France and everything east mostly relies on our comrades to the east.

The sanctions were not on energy products, as that would fuck Europe over in a pretty major way (granted it would kill Russia).

I have to be entirely honest, and slightly conspiracy theorist right now, so please take what i'm about to say with a grain of salt, but...

this dramatic drop in oil prices is likely not solely an oversupply, I think we've known the world economy is slow at best, and that fracking has brought huge amounts more energy online. There are perhaps bigger games at play here.

We have Russia fucking with the EU/Ukraine - never a smart thing to do, Russia backing Assad in Syria, and spouting off at anyone that tries to take him down (which everyone, especially Saudi Arabia, wants). So i would not be surprised if a big part of this drop, the reason why Saudi Arabia (the biggest player in OPEC) are being so staunchly against cutting oil production (granted they are the lowest cost producer so can take this hit better than anyone), is down to a well timed coming together of the major powers.

The price in oil does a couple of things:
1) Hugely helps the US economy continue to recover.
2) Hugely helps an EU economy on the brink of deflation
3) Hugely helps a Japanese economy on the brink of recession (they have basically no natural resources, but want to have exports - they need cheap inputs to production to make this happen)
4) Hurts Russia so much that their resolve on Ukraine and some other items may be weakened, as their minds will be moved to their local mess of an economy
5) But, it hurts the US shale expansion - but the thing is, oil will go back to $100 - the shale gas is going nowhere, they do not necessarily need to mothball these projects, just slow them down...

again, a bit of a conspiracy theory, but it is all rather coincidental with the timing, the benefits to those that need a boost, and the pain caused to an old enemy in the face of much political conflict around the world.

now, i'm not saying this is a white flag event (is that what CiC used to say?), but it's interesting, and i'm interested in how it'll play out over the next 6 months.
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Old 12-23-2014, 01:11 AM   #10
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i'd love to see your proof of any of this.

European trade with new sanctions to Russia makes up a very small part of GDP, the effect has not been material other than the price of veggies going down (which has been great for me, personally!). please don't be ignorant to think trade with Russia has stopped, it really hasn't.

Russia is weak now, yes they have large foreign reserves and are utilizing them to try to prop up the Rouble, but the significant damage has been done, confidence is gone in the government and the currency, hence the recent run on anything deemed an asset, cars, tvs, high end clothes - as this value will remain vs. the Rouble, which is so weak right now. The effect of this is that many significant sellers have temporarily closed their doors, Renault-Nissan have stopped sales in Russia, Zara has closed its doors (I know this for a fact as a friend was just in Moscow this weekend and reported the latter to me), as they can't raise local currency prices fast enough nor can they price accurately/risk is too high in bringing in more product denominated in USD/EUR.

An awful lot of the economy in Russia is done in Euros or USD. A lot of commercial rents are in USD, which is causing a massive problem for retail stores selling in Roubles.

A lot of consumer items (smaller scale) are sold into the market at EUR or USD price, converted to Rouble, paid for in Rouble, and immediately converted back to EUR or USD (you have a 30 day window of currency exposure - which if that was the last 30 days, boy did you lose out).

Sadly Russia is weak but still has a strong mentality, it is far too natural resource reliant and has an expensive country to run given its scale and terrain. I wouldn't touch Russia with a 10 foot pole right now, and I especially wouldn't think confidence will return to that market any time soon.
Just take a look at Al Jazeera and RT.

I never said no trades are happening between EU and Russia. What I said was Europeans also shot themselves in the foot by siding with US with their sanctions.

I think it's just as naive and ignorant to think that Russia will just go down without any assistance. If China can save US's ass economically, China can also save Russia, and they've already stated that if you checked my mentioned sources. China cannot allow Russia to collapse. They have great economic and political interest in that region. This is as far as I'll go in terms of discussing this subject. Feel free to believe what you believe.
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Old 12-23-2014, 01:28 AM   #11
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This is as far as I'll go in terms of discussing this subject. Feel free to believe what you believe.
says all i need to see. you can't actually make a well put together side of a debate, so you'll "go no further" in discussing it.
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Old 12-23-2014, 01:57 AM   #12
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the sanctions don't work hence the convenient dip in oil prices with Saudi Arabia (American ally) oddly not reigning in production to the chagrin of the rest of the oil producing world

Chinese media has stated that this has happened before also during a Russia/US rift

i really don't see it as being in tin foil hat territory but rather connecting the dots


It'll be tough for Russia but they've been through worse and the West will have no choice but to go back to them eventually, especially Europe who really hasn't left

those are almost the exact words Putin made over the weekend too
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Old 12-23-2014, 02:01 AM   #13
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This is as far as I'll go in terms of discussing this subject. Feel free to believe what you believe.
says all i need to see. you can't actually make a well put together side of a debate, so you'll "go no further" in discussing it.
My views had already been expressed. I'm not gonna waste my time here all day to exchange opinions in hopes of changing someone's perspective, especially not on a car forum with a bunch of strangers.
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Old 12-23-2014, 02:06 AM   #14
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saudi's prob gonna increase production and drive oil down more.

stop arguing, just put your money on the market, and the winner will win money, and the loser will lose money. that's where the real debate is at.

put your money where your mouth is!
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Old 12-23-2014, 03:08 AM   #15
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Russia is done. You can't even buy a Iphone in Russia anymore. Apple stopped selling them.
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Old 12-23-2014, 03:47 AM   #16
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^ Apple resumed with higher price today, who cares about Apple. The Yotaphone will save Russia, jk

The oil price plunged has hurt its economy, but it seems like it hurts the entire Europe altogether.

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Old 12-23-2014, 07:17 AM   #17
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a small example of how Russia is fucked. Living in Vietnam we have hundreds of thousands of Russians Visiting every year. Over the last few months tourism is down by 30% to Vietnam and will only drop more as most people who visited booked many months prior. Its all the talk here b/c of how much the rubble has dropped so many of the Russian tourists can no longer afford to travel or are being asked to travel with in Russia.

Its actually quite serious here.
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Old 12-23-2014, 07:18 AM   #18
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Putin is a tough person and Russia have gone through some very tough times (back in the 70s and 80s) Yes it will hurt them but they can tough it out. Unlike the states and Europe.
Worse comes to worse Russia will just not pay back the loans they borrow and call it a day. Shut itself off from the west and just trade with China and smaller countries. It will be fine.

Is like communist party in China. Those in power now have gone through shit we can't even image.
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Old 12-23-2014, 09:39 AM   #19
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China will bail Russia out if they ever need it.

Let's not forget the massive $400bil natural gas deal China signed with Russia. They don't want to just throw away their new biggest supplier of NG.
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Old 12-23-2014, 09:53 AM   #20
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It's pretty sad when a country can only survive when they crude is selling at 100 a barrel but I can't feel sorry for those Russians since like I said already they brought it on them selves
feel sad for who?? the poor russians never had any choice in any of it and probably arent going to see much change....it's the rich greedy bastards that are getting impacted and i'm perfectly fine with that
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:30 PM   #21
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China will bail Russia out if they ever need it.

Let's not forget the massive $400bil natural gas deal China signed with Russia. They don't want to just throw away their new biggest supplier of NG.
wasn't the massive gas deal done between ruble and rmb and not u.s. dollar? pretty sure the chinese are having second thought as they don't want a bunch of worthless paper. to get a bailout or some sort, putin will have to get on his knee and beg, meanwhile, the chinese will take him to the cleaner.
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:37 PM   #22
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feel sad for who?? the poor russians never had any choice in any of it and probably arent going to see much change....it's the rich greedy bastards that are getting impacted and i'm perfectly fine with that
its the poor Russians with little money are being affected the most since the rich greedy bastards already have lots of money so even tho yes they are losing lots they still have money to live life comfortably
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:44 PM   #23
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wasn't the massive gas deal done between ruble and rmb and not u.s. dollar? pretty sure the chinese are having second thought as they don't want a bunch of worthless paper. to get a bailout or some sort, putin will have to get on his knee and beg, meanwhile, the chinese will take him to the cleaner.
well RMB is pretty much worthless paper too
China money supply M2 (printing money) has grown 10 folds since 1996
The Chinese government will print more worthless paper for their natural resources
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Old 12-23-2014, 03:22 PM   #24
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China will bail Russia out if they ever need it.

Let's not forget the massive $400bil natural gas deal China signed with Russia. They don't want to just throw away their new biggest supplier of NG.
Wasn't that deal cancelled not so long ago (pre this whole cluster fuck?)
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Old 12-23-2014, 04:18 PM   #25
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^^ Nope, as far as I know, the NG deal is still on, and the currencies to be used are in Ruble and RMB.

On the surface, China got fxxked big time on this deal. But this is assuming that the Communist government will actually honour the contractual responsibility, and both Mainland Chinese merchants and the government alike are notorious for dishonouring contracts when the terms are no longer in their favour. Still, whether the contract will hold out, be re-negotiated, or outright ignored will depend on how China views Russia as it political and strategic partner at the international level. So really, it is anyone's guess as to how this NG deal will pan out.

Personally, I expect Putin to hold out and act tough for just a while longer, perhaps a couple of months (3-4 max?). And then he will find a soft method to make some concessions on Ukraine as a means to save face, but also as an olive branch / negotiation strategy to try and entice the Western World to go easy on Russia -- perhaps some easing on sanctions / trade restrictions, or perhaps some financial assistance from somewhere (ECB? IMF?). Putin is a tyrant, but he is neither stupid nor incompetent. He knows he can't ride this one out if the entire RoW on the outside, and his own citizens from within Russia are acting against him. So he will find a way to make some concessions.
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