Bank of Canada interest rate - possible hike

[flagella]

Well, this is Vancouver, so people have little knowledge outside of real estate and mortgage.

[heleu]

Originally Posted by !LittleDragon

lol... people think this only affects mortgage rates

Please enlighten us. I'd like to see what you think.

[Tapioca]

People who have HELOCs will just continue doing what they're doing until their interest payments are higher than the return on their equities or investment properties. We're a long ways from that. Market rents are still high enough to service higher borrowing costs. There's still insufficient rental stock in the Lower Mainland generally. Fixed leases remain legal for now.

If you had unsecured debt yesterday, it's more expensive to service today. But no one here fits that demographic as most of RS buys their sports cars in cash.

[Digitalis]

OMG it's trump ruining the world!

[MG1]

He's not destroying the world. He's making America Great Again.

Okay, I take that back.......... he's destroying everything that isn't America. Only if it benefits America does he care.

We serve America. Hail to the Chief.......... and may he have his face carved onto the rock face of Mt. Rushmore.

A president like no other...........god bless Donald Trump.



I hope he goes bat crazy and ends up in a straightjacket. He's the Joker!




WAIT!!!!! This isn't the trump thread............

[!LittleDragon]

Most people are already expecting a rate hike in October but now there's a 50/50 chance of another hike in September. If the September hike happens, that's .75% in a matter of months.

4.5% growth is double the normal economic growth rate so the hikes may even be bigger than .25%...



Odds of a rate hike soar to almost 50% overnight after Canada?s growth wows economists | Financial Post

Canada’s economy grew at a 4.5 per cent pace in the second quarter, blowing past even the most bullish estimates and convincing economists the Bank of Canada will raise its benchmark interest rate before the end of the year, perhaps even next week.

The probability of a hike in September rose on Friday to nearly 50 per cent, data from the overnight index swaps market showed, up from around 20 per cent before the data on Thursday showing rapid domestic growth.

Much of the gains were connected with strong oil and gas activity, particularly in May and June. The manufacturing, construction and retail sectors were all strong, easily offsetting a slow down in real estate activity connected with government measures introduced to tame overheating housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver.

Economists had thought Canada’s economy would slow a bit with the approach of summer. Yet results for the month of June were surprisingly stronger than expected, and that sent economists racing to update their forecasts for the third quarter and the balance of the year.

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“While we do expect growth to simmer down somewhat in the second half of the year, we would readily allow that all of the economic surprises have been to the high side in 2017,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist with BMO Financial Group. “In what has become almost a seemingly monthly ritual in 2017, we are nudging up our call on Canadian GDP growth yet again to 3.1 per cent for the year and 2.5 per cent for Q3 — and would readily allow that there is some upside risk.”


Avery Shenfeld, chief economist of CIBC Capital Markets, said gains in incomes and a rise in the savings rate give Canadian consumers more room to spend during the third quarter. In July, the Bank of Canada rose its benchmark interest rate for the first time in seven years. Most economists expect Canada’s central bank to raise rates yet again this year, but Shenfeld said the strong GDP data leads CIBC to forecast that next hike might come as early as next week, rather than the fall or later.

“We were sitting on the fence, but are now leaning towards a September hike, with some cautionary words in the statement to remind Canadian dollar bulls that they will be very patient on further hikes,” Shenfeld said.

The markets still think the Bank of Canada will hold off on raising rates until its Oct. 25 meeting. Heading into Thursday’s GDP report, the futures market had pegged the chance of a Sept. 6 Bank of Canada interest rate increase at only 26.5 per cent. Shortly after the GDP figures were released, the odds of a September hike to 1.0 per cent from the current 0.75 per cent climbed to 33.4 per cent.

Inflation remains low in Canada, while the Canadian dollar remains relatively high. BMO’s Porter said that gives the Bank of Canada room to be patient and not move as early as next week. Still, Porter adds the strong economic data “all but locks in” a rate hike later in the year.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected Canada’s second quarter GDP to grow by about 3.5 per cent, with the median of the 17 estimates at 3.7 per cent. The highest forecast in the data set was 4.0 per cent, an amount handily surpassed in Thursday’s release.

The big surprise on Thursday was the GDP strength in June, with 14 out of 20 economic sectors posting growth. Construction was the main contributor to June’s growth, Statistics Canada said. Economists had thought economic activity would soften with the approach of summer, and that this would herald a slowdown in third quarter growth. Now it looks like the summer was economically hotter than economists had expected.

“Wow. There seems to be no stopping Canada of late,” said Brian DePratto, senior economist with TD Economics. “The solid monthly data for June suggests that Canada still had solid momentum heading into the summer months, with very early tracking suggesting that Q3 growth could be around 2.5 per cent – a solid pace by any measure and one likely to push Canada into excess demand territory.”

DePratto said another rate hike in the fall is “almost certainly a done deal.”

[Blueboy222]

You better sell now before it's too late

[lowside67]

Originally Posted by !LittleDragon

Most people are already expecting a rate hike in October but now there's a 50/50 chance of another hike in September. If the September hike happens, that's .75% in a matter of months.

4.5% growth is double the normal economic growth rate so the hikes may even be bigger than .25%.

I believe the new development is the odds of them hiking in September instead of October, not September AND October. I genuinely believe that while we had one good month of GDP information, it would take a LOT more sustained good news (and probably a US hike) before we hiked 3x in 2017.

-Mark

[nah]

and it happened today...

Big banks hike prime rates after Bank of Canada tightens monetary policy - Business - CBC News

[twitchyzero]

82c on the greenback?
can we hit 90c in time for next Q2

[Ulic Qel-Droma]

more hikes please.