REVscene - Vancouver Automotive Forum


Welcome to the REVscene Automotive Forum forums.

Registration is Free!You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today! The banners on the left side and below do not show for registered users!

If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact contact us.


Go Back   REVscene Automotive Forum > Automotive Chat > Vancouver Off-Topic / Current Events

Vancouver Off-Topic / Current Events The off-topic forum for Vancouver, funnies, non-auto centered discussions, WORK SAFE. While the rules are more relaxed here, there are still rules. Please refer to sticky thread in this forum.

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 03-21-2014, 07:57 AM   #2151
I contribute to threads in the offtopic forum
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: vancouver
Posts: 2,571
Thanked 352 Times in 173 Posts
i bought my house almost 4 years ago...do i regret it, no, well maybe this house in particular lol

i'm at a lucky position now where i'm taking off travelling for a year and renting my house out....thankfully there are people willing to rent my house at well above my mortgage so it's win/win for me

thanks renters!!
Advertisement
blkgsr is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2014, 08:18 AM   #2152
My homepage has been set to RS
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 2,116
Thanked 1,201 Times in 479 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4444 View Post
Here's a but of life that's coming ur way:

Ur gf will leave u, or vice versa

Ur 24, u don't know shit about what u will do

U live in Richmond, go travel the world and realize what's important before saying things about buying a place in and around Vancouver.

Everyone I know that has left Vancouver, me included, hasn't returned and for good reason. Vancouver is a toxic place - I won't explain why I say this.
If you can't hack it, you can't hack it! whatever bitter boy!
__________________
15 991 GTS with Aerokit Cup
10 AMV8 6sp manual
11 Dinan S3-R 4.6 Stroker
16 Audi Q3 Technik Pkg (S Line)
Z3guy is offline  
Reply With Quote
This post FAILED by:
Old 03-21-2014, 08:52 AM   #2153
I subscribe to the Fight Club ONLY
 
sonick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Revscene
Posts: 7,226
Thanked 4,878 Times in 1,526 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl Johnson View Post
Parents should help their children better assess the market they are buying into and where rates are headed.
That's the thing though, I think many parents might not be fully aware of the market the kids are buying into and where the rates are headed. Especially if all they hear about the RE market is from the news and newspaper.

They bought decades ago and sure there may have been corrections along the way, but today their HOUSE values have double, triple in worth. It happened for their house, why wouldn't it happen to their kids with a one-in-a-thousand shoebox condo and no land?

A family friend of mine is a partner in his own business, when he was considering buying a home I sent him all the usual links. He perused them and went to his mom, who also owned her own business, for advice. She told him that buying a place is security, that if the business fails, you will always have a home to come home to and a roof over your head.

At that point he had already made a decision so I didn't debate it, but in that situation I think it would be far less ideal to own a place than to rent. From Garth's blog post today: "When the economy turns lousy and jobs are hard to find, houses usually go illiquid – at the precise moment you might need the most flexibility."
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by skyxx View Post
Sonick is a genius. I won't go into detail what's so great about his post. But it's damn good!
1999 Mazda Miata - Weekend Driver
2007 Toyota Rav4 Sport V6 - Current
2003 Mazda Protege5 - Sold
1987 BMW 325is - Sold
1990 Mazda Miata - Sold

100% Buy and Sell Feedback
sonick is offline  
Reply With Quote
This post thanked by:
Old 03-21-2014, 09:44 AM   #2154
Raping Captured Dolphins since 2002 on EZ board days
 
RFlush's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 6,223
Thanked 648 Times in 186 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4444 View Post
Here's a but of life that's coming ur way:

Ur gf will leave u, or vice versa

Ur 24, u don't know shit about what u will do

U live in Richmond, go travel the world and realize what's important before saying things about buying a place in and around Vancouver.

Everyone I know that has left Vancouver, me included, hasn't returned and for good reason. Vancouver is a toxic place - I won't explain why I say this.
I agree that it is great to go out and explore the world, or even within Canada. Most people in Vancouver live in a bubble and love Vancouver yet haven't truly lived anywhere else. The world is huge, I encourage everyone to go see it for what it's worth.

I disagree that Vancouver is a toxic place. I was born and raised in Vancouver and have lived in Hong Kong for the past 5 years. It has been a great experience and has benefited me greatly financially, but now at my age with a baby on the way and thinking about the future, I can say that Vancouver is a great place to raise a family. I can't compare to anything else except HK, but having more open spaces, less stress and allowing children to be more creative is something that's more important to me than just money. I think about the health care, the education and everything and Vancouver isn't that bad.

Your friends who haven't returned to Vancouver are probably single or people with no kids.

Last edited by RFlush; 03-21-2014 at 06:41 PM.
RFlush is offline  
Reply With Quote
This post thanked by:
Old 03-21-2014, 10:14 AM   #2155
Wunder? Wonder?? Wander???
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: vancouver
Posts: 218
Thanked 39 Times in 25 Posts
I made a decision to get out of the real estate market early this year, it was a hard decision to make but I didn't feel comfortable that if the interest rate did go up, my family would struggle making mortgage payments and living expenses.

This video late last year got me thinking even though I'm not a big fan of Kevin O'Leary.

-84 percent of pre-tax income in Vancouver for mortgage payment was stated by RBC, doesn't take much of a interest rate increase to put people in the red.

-How much longer can the bank of Canada keep these historic low rates.

hillmar is online now  
Reply With Quote
This post thanked by:
Old 03-21-2014, 10:23 AM   #2156
My homepage has been set to RS
 
Traum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Paradise, BC
Posts: 2,423
Thanked 1,761 Times in 775 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4444 View Post
Yes, but ppl are idiots

They buy when the market is excited (expensive), but leave the market when sentiment is negative (prices cheap)

How else do u explain that the biggest day of stock selling was at the trough of the financial crisis - ppl r idiots, that's how!
People are not as stupid as you think, just as you aren't nearly as smart as you think you are.

If you could leave your own little elitism behind for a while and actually do some thinking, the behaviour you described above is perfectly logical.

The simple explanation is how people are generally linear thinking creatures. I won't bother to going into that because it is a really simple concept. The other slightly less obvious explanation is

1) no one can accurately foresee the future, and
2) your typical person does not have the financial means to weather the storm if their real estate property turns into a negative asset.

When #1 combines to work with #2, it means the risks of getting stuck with a negative asset that the RE property might become is too great. So what do you do when something is too risky? You don't engage in whatever that risky activity is. It is a perfectly logical move, and the simplest form of risk management.

When the RE market sentiments are negative, only big developers and/or financial groups have the financial means to take on that risk of a further depressed market. That's why they are able and willing to buy.

Last edited by Traum; 03-21-2014 at 11:19 AM.
Traum is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2014, 11:18 AM   #2157
Los Bastardo owned my ass at least once
 
hud 91gt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 6,208
Thanked 1,649 Times in 647 Posts
I travel for a living. I go to another continent weekly. I've lived in/visited more parts of Canada then 99.85% of the Canadian public. I've worked in and out of most major cities of the US.

I just moved back to Vancouver, after growing up on the island. I can live wherever I like with the job I have. I still chose Vancouver. My career would probably be better elsewhere, but I am comfortable with my life. I am content = Happiness.

Why did I move back? Because Vancouver is an amazing place. If you need nightlife, move somewhere else. If you love recreation, topped off with beautiful scenery, and all the amenities. Vancouver is amazing.

To each their own.
__________________
Crush - 1971 Datsun 240z
The Daily - A Boring Honda
hud 91gt is offline  
Reply With Quote
This post thanked by:
Old 03-21-2014, 11:34 AM   #2158
My homepage has been set to RS
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 2,116
Thanked 1,201 Times in 479 Posts
^ I agree, I travel allot for work as well and imo for overall balance in life, it is hard to beat Vancouver. There is a reason Vancouver is overpriced!!
__________________
15 991 GTS with Aerokit Cup
10 AMV8 6sp manual
11 Dinan S3-R 4.6 Stroker
16 Audi Q3 Technik Pkg (S Line)
Z3guy is offline  
Reply With Quote
This post thanked by:
Old 03-21-2014, 12:05 PM   #2159
I contribute to threads in the offtopic forum
 
EndLeSS8's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: 604
Posts: 2,940
Thanked 492 Times in 176 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by RFlush View Post
I agree that it is great to go out and explore the world, or even within Canada. Most people in Vancouver live in a bubble and love Vancouver yet haven't truly lived anywhere else. The world is huge, I encourage everyone to go see it for what it's worth.

I disagree that Vancouver is a toxic place. I was born and raised in Vancouver and have lived in Hong Kong for the past 5 years. It has been a great experience and has benefited me greatly financially, but now at my age with a baby on the way and thinking about the future, I can say that Vancouver is a great place to raise a family. I can't compare to anything else except HK, but having more open spaces, less stress and allowing children to be more creative is something that's more important to me than just money. I think about the health care, the education and everything and Vancouver isn't that.

Your friends who haven't returned to Vancouver are probably single or people with no kids.
This is so very true IMO

I lived in Northern California (Sunnyvale) for 4 years, and it's significantly better than Vancouver, AND you can do everything that Vancouver offers, but better (that includes nightlife, outdoors, skiing, beaches, food, driving, salaries, weather, etc,)

I miss California a lot
__________________
2006 IS350
EndLeSS8 is offline  
Reply With Quote
This post thanked by:
Old 03-21-2014, 01:40 PM   #2160
My homepage has been set to RS
 
Spoon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: VAN/RMD/BBY
Posts: 2,075
Thanked 665 Times in 299 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillmar View Post
I made a decision to get out of the real estate market early this year, it was a hard decision to make but I didn't feel comfortable that if the interest rate did go up, my family would struggle making mortgage payments and living expenses.

This video late last year got me thinking even though I'm not a big fan of Kevin O'Leary.

-84 percent of pre-tax income in Vancouver for mortgage payment was stated by RBC, doesn't take much of a interest rate increase to put people in the red.

-How much longer can the bank of Canada keep these historic low rates.

Kevin O'leary on Canadian Housing Bubble - YouTube
I go into Kevin O'leary's YouTube channel and the first thing I see is this

I understand he's just supplying what people demand. But the message's condescending.
__________________
My Buyer/Seller Rating
Spoon is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2014, 05:30 PM   #2161
WOAH! i think Vtec just kicked in!
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 1,645
Thanked 343 Times in 163 Posts
Quote:
3 Reasons Canadaís Real Estate Market Is in Trouble


Over the last decade, youíd be hard pressed to find a better performing sector than real estate in Canada.


House prices have essentially doubled in that time, and yet the average household income hasnít risen much more than inflation. Canadaís market has survived a U.S. housing crash, a world economic slowdown and former Finance Minister Jim Flahertyís best efforts to suppress the market with mortgage qualification restrictions, like eliminating 0% down mortgages and shortening the maximum amortization period to 25 years, from a previous maximum of 40.


Mostly thanks to low interest rates and the perception that real estate is safe, the market has shrugged off any bad news and continues to hit a new record high almost every month. But like all good things, this ride will also come to an end. Here are three reasons why itíll happen.


1. Increasing interest rates
The only reason why Canadian housing is reachable for the average family is low interest rates. Historical norms for mortgage rates are in the 6% range, at least double what youíd pay today.


While Iím not predicting interest rates to suddenly double overnight, I am predicting a slow return to more normalized rates. The United States is chugging along nicely. Unemployment keeps going down, so the Fed will continue to taper. This will cause interest rates to slowly rise, and this will eventually make its way to Canada.


A 1% rise in interest rates doesnít seem like much, but it can have a huge effect on a homeowner. If you owe $400,000 on your house, an extra 1% is $4,000 per year, or more than $300 per month. Canadians have record low savings rates and record high debt. There are a lot of people who canít afford an extra $300 per month.


2. Record high debt
As a country, Canada is maxed out.


The average household owes $164 in debt for every $100 in disposable income. This is slightly down from record levels, which peaked at 164.2% of disposable income. This is right around the level the U.S. peaked at in 2007. Growth in borrowing against houses is staggering, and many Canadians use home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) as a way to consolidate higher interest credit card debt. Weíre borrowing against our houses to consume. Canadaís largest bank, RBC (TSX:RY)(NYSE:RY), grew HELOC lending by eight times from 2004 to today. Thatís a massive increase.


This creates a situation where the average Canadian is in deep trouble after just a couple of weeks without a pay cheque. If I had no wiggle room, Iíd probably stop paying my credit card or student loan before I stopped paying my mortgage, since keeping the house would be a priority. But what if Iíd consolidated all that debt into a line of credit, secured against my house? Iíd need to find another solution, and fast.


3. Nobody left to buy
Increasingly, young Canadians feel as if itís impossible to enter the housing market. Activity from first-time buyers is starting to dry up. The slack is currently being picked up by people who are using low interest rates and some of their newfound equity to upgrade to a better place. Any healthy real estate market needs first-time buyers. There are hundreds of thousands of condos being built in Canada, especially in Toronto and Montreal. If first-time buyers donít gobble those up, it could start a cascade of decreasing real estate prices.


If condo prices start to fall, look for the thousands of ďinvestorsĒ whoíve speculated in big city condos to get nervous and exit the market in droves, further depressing the market.


These are the main reasons Iím reluctant to buy shares in Home Capital Group (TSX:HCG), even though itís reasonably attractive on the surface. Yes, it has solid underwriting standards, but itís still lending to people regular lenders wonít touch. The super low default rate of 0.09% is partly because a rising market will help a distressed homeowner get out of a property with a portion of their equity intact.


Iím not predicting bankruptcy for Home Capital or anything close, but thereís a reason why itís the cheapest mortgage lending stock in the country. Sentiment will send the share price lower if the national real estate market suffers.


Foolish bottom line
Itís simple. At some point, the Canadian real estate market will start to stumble. While thereís still the hope of a soft landing, itís hard to make the argument that the sector is primed for another decade of growth. Even though Canadian lenders are well capitalized and have solid balance sheets, the vast majority of their earnings growth has come from increased mortgage lending. Look for lenders like Home Capital to underperform going forward.


Source: http://www.fool.ca/2014/03/21/3-reas...is-in-trouble/
Not to mention job growth has stalled in B.C. in 2013. Prices have outpaced the fundamental for far too long but eventually both will converge.
Carl Johnson is offline  
Reply With Quote
This post thanked by:
Old 03-21-2014, 06:17 PM   #2162
Everyone wants a piece of R S...
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: YVR
Posts: 395
Thanked 224 Times in 123 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillmar View Post
I made a decision to get out of the real estate market early this year, it was a hard decision to make but I didn't feel comfortable that if the interest rate did go up, my family would struggle making mortgage payments and living expenses.

This video late last year got me thinking even though I'm not a big fan of Kevin O'Leary.

-84 percent of pre-tax income in Vancouver for mortgage payment was stated by RBC, doesn't take much of a interest rate increase to put people in the red.

-How much longer can the bank of Canada keep these historic low rates.

Kevin O'leary on Canadian Housing Bubble - YouTube
you made the right decision, not many people have the guts like you do. I bought my house in 2009 during the recession and I don't have much mortgage left so I keep justifying that I'll be okay if we go into another recession or if the interest rate spikes. But I'm still worried and keep contemplating on selling and locking in my capital gains...
noclue is offline  
Reply With Quote
This post thanked by:
Old 03-21-2014, 07:44 PM   #2163
Wunder? Wonder?? Wander???
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: vancouver
Posts: 218
Thanked 39 Times in 25 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by noclue View Post
you made the right decision, not many people have the guts like you do. I bought my house in 2009 during the recession and I don't have much mortgage left so I keep justifying that I'll be okay if we go into another recession or if the interest rate spikes. But I'm still worried and keep contemplating on selling and locking in my capital gains...
Trust me, it was very difficult to convince my wife to do this. Our place was bought in 2005 so we did make a good profit from this sale (even after all the closing cost), currently the funds are sitting in a high interest savings account to stay liquid incase I need to access the cash. I'm currently renting a basement in the same neighborhood atm, paying 1000 a month so the lower monthly payments are helping me save up even more. From time to time, I do wonder if I did the right thing, but I must admit that the financial freedom does feel pretty good.
hillmar is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2014, 08:30 PM   #2164
WOAH! i think Vtec just kicked in!
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 1,645
Thanked 343 Times in 163 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillmar View Post
Trust me, it was very difficult to convince my wife to do this. Our place was bought in 2005 so we did make a good profit from this sale (even after all the closing cost), currently the funds are sitting in a high interest savings account to stay liquid incase I need to access the cash. I'm currently renting a basement in the same neighborhood atm, paying 1000 a month so the lower monthly payments are helping me save up even more. From time to time, I do wonder if I did the right thing, but I must admit that the financial freedom does feel pretty good.
Most people fall into the category of overconfidence and believe what's happened in the past will continue into the foreseeable future. I believe you made the right decision by cashing out. Honestly you are not really losing anything by sitting the sideline in fact like you said renting is actually a cheaper and more flexible alternative.
Carl Johnson is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2014, 09:49 PM   #2165
I contribute to threads in the offtopic forum
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: vancouver
Posts: 2,571
Thanked 352 Times in 173 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillmar View Post
Trust me, it was very difficult to convince my wife to do this. Our place was bought in 2005 so we did make a good profit from this sale (even after all the closing cost), currently the funds are sitting in a high interest savings account to stay liquid incase I need to access the cash. I'm currently renting a basement in the same neighborhood atm, paying 1000 a month so the lower monthly payments are helping me save up even more. From time to time, I do wonder if I did the right thing, but I must admit that the financial freedom does feel pretty good.
you say you are now renting at $1000/month...what was your mortgage payment if you don't mind my asking?

i'm currently at $1600/month (was doing $2000 because i could) while i rent it out for the duration i'm away....to many i guess that extra $600 really does make a difference

a bonus for me when i get back is that my house has a basement suite that i'll be able to get min $700+ to help out....that's if i come back lol
blkgsr is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2014, 10:51 PM   #2166
Wunder? Wonder?? Wander???
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: vancouver
Posts: 218
Thanked 39 Times in 25 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by blkgsr View Post
you say you are now renting at $1000/month...what was your mortgage payment if you don't mind my asking?

i'm currently at $1600/month (was doing $2000 because i could) while i rent it out for the duration i'm away....to many i guess that extra $600 really does make a difference

a bonus for me when i get back is that my house has a basement suite that i'll be able to get min $700+ to help out....that's if i come back lol
My mortgage payment was 730 Bi weekly, so around 1460 per month. It was a 2 bedroom loft with Den so Strata was $340/month. So when I tallied it up, I was paying 1800 per month. My total savings per month is around $800, that goes directly to my savings. My wife decided to stay at home and watch our young children during this period of time, so our finances aren't as strong as it used to be last year. Currently my situation is stable and I can keep up with the mortgage payments, but a few movement of the interest rate would start impacting our current lifestyle.
hillmar is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2014, 11:52 PM   #2167
resident Oil Guru
 
LiquidTurbo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 7,714
Thanked 10,457 Times in 1,794 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillmar View Post
My mortgage payment was 730 Bi weekly, so around 1460 per month. It was a 2 bedroom loft with Den so Strata was $340/month. So when I tallied it up, I was paying 1800 per month. My total savings per month is around $800, that goes directly to my savings. My wife decided to stay at home and watch our young children during this period of time, so our finances aren't as strong as it used to be last year. Currently my situation is stable and I can keep up with the mortgage payments, but a few movement of the interest rate would start impacting our current lifestyle.
Do you think any "movement" of interest rate will occur?
LiquidTurbo is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2014, 09:59 AM   #2168
Wunder? Wonder?? Wander???
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: vancouver
Posts: 218
Thanked 39 Times in 25 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by LiquidTurbo View Post
Do you think any "movement" of interest rate will occur?
I really don't know, but I do know its not normal to have near zero interest rate. To be honest, i've been riding this near zero interest rate for a very long time with a variable mortgage. (over 6 years now that I think about it) So it's almost a gamble on my part to cash out and sit on the side lines. I mean who knows, maybe near zero interest rates can be sustained for another 10 years. But with the recent hint by Yellen, she has hinted that interest rates could start to rise in early 2015(Canada usually follows), you never know what the future holds.
hillmar is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2014, 11:13 AM   #2169
I contribute to threads in the offtopic forum
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: vancouver
Posts: 2,571
Thanked 352 Times in 173 Posts
early 2015....i sure hope it's well into 2015 for my sake...as i renew in may 2015

hindsight sure is a bitch though. i locked in at 3.69% instead of doing variable 4 years ago....sure wish i had taken the variable, oh well
blkgsr is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2014, 02:11 PM   #2170
this is the hardest n***a of all time
 
GLOW's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 7,492
Thanked 4,444 Times in 1,780 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by blkgsr View Post
early 2015....i sure hope it's well into 2015 for my sake...as i renew in may 2015

hindsight sure is a bitch though. i locked in at 3.69% instead of doing variable 4 years ago....sure wish i had taken the variable, oh well
Our situations sound similar. Bought at around the same time and locked a portion of mine as well. If rates go up I don't think it will hurt too much as our amount owing is in pretty good shape
Posted via RS Mobile
GLOW is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2014, 02:45 PM   #2171
WOAH! i think Vtec just kicked in!
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 1,645
Thanked 343 Times in 163 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillmar View Post
I really don't know, but I do know its not normal to have near zero interest rate. To be honest, i've been riding this near zero interest rate for a very long time with a variable mortgage. (over 6 years now that I think about it) So it's almost a gamble on my part to cash out and sit on the side lines. I mean who knows, maybe near zero interest rates can be sustained for another 10 years. But with the recent hint by Yellen, she has hinted that interest rates could start to rise in early 2015(Canada usually follows), you never know what the future holds.
If U.S. job market significantly improves this year which I think it probably will then Fed will have to stop Large-scale asset purchases and basically go back to a standard policy stance for a normal operating U.S. economy. Rates both short term and long term will liftoff in this case.

I am in the camp that U.S. housing market will diverge big time from Canadian market in the next 5 or so years. American households cut down a lot of debt during the crisis and with job market on the mend rates increases won't hurt them as much. Housing affordability still very reasonable even with the big increase last year.

We Canadian on the hand is completely opposite. Consumer leveraged up the the max here in Vancouver and nationwide really. Job market stalled. A lower loonie will help our exports but companies haven't invested much in their businesses or moved factory offshore coming out this 08/09 crisis therefore a larger currency depreciation won't stimulate the economy as much this time. If rates go up here I think a lot of homeowners will be in trouble. I'm not predicting a crash but I am definitely prepared for it if it does happen.
Carl Johnson is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2014, 04:32 PM   #2172
Wunder? Wonder?? Wander???
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: vancouver
Posts: 218
Thanked 39 Times in 25 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl Johnson View Post
If U.S. job market significantly improves this year which I think it probably will then Fed will have to stop Large-scale asset purchases and basically go back to a standard policy stance for a normal operating U.S. economy. Rates both short term and long term will liftoff in this case.

I am in the camp that U.S. housing market will diverge big time from Canadian market in the next 5 or so years. American households cut down a lot of debt during the crisis and with job market on the mend rates increases won't hurt them as much. Housing affordability still very reasonable even with the big increase last year.

We Canadian on the hand is completely opposite. Consumer leveraged up the the max here in Vancouver and nationwide really. Job market stalled. A lower loonie will help our exports but companies haven't invested much in their businesses or moved factory offshore coming out this 08/09 crisis therefore a larger currency depreciation won't stimulate the economy as much this time. If rates go up here I think a lot of homeowners will be in trouble. I'm not predicting a crash but I am definitely prepared for it if it does happen.
I agree with you that us Canadians are leveraged up the max here in Vancouver and nationwide, this is whats scary as reported by RBC-
(Detach bungalow)
Ottawa,Montreal,Calgary,Edmonton-Mid 30's% pre-tax income.
Toronto-56% of pre-tax income.
Vancouver-84% of pre-tax income.

It looks like we are the biggest gamblers when it comes down to housing, putting almost everything on the table.
hillmar is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2014, 06:31 PM   #2173
I Will not Admit my Addiction to RS
 
AWDTurboLuvr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Montreal
Posts: 590
Thanked 324 Times in 144 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl Johnson View Post
If U.S. job market significantly improves this year which I think it probably will then Fed will have to stop Large-scale asset purchases and basically go back to a standard policy stance for a normal operating U.S. economy. Rates both short term and long term will liftoff in this case.

I am in the camp that U.S. housing market will diverge big time from Canadian market in the next 5 or so years. American households cut down a lot of debt during the crisis and with job market on the mend rates increases won't hurt them as much. Housing affordability still very reasonable even with the big increase last year.

We Canadian on the hand is completely opposite. Consumer leveraged up the the max here in Vancouver and nationwide really. Job market stalled. A lower loonie will help our exports but companies haven't invested much in their businesses or moved factory offshore coming out this 08/09 crisis therefore a larger currency depreciation won't stimulate the economy as much this time. If rates go up here I think a lot of homeowners will be in trouble. I'm not predicting a crash but I am definitely prepared for it if it does happen.
What are we exporting these days? The US isn't buying our resources as much anymore and the growth in China is slowing, thus hurting out commodities-based economy. I'd say we're in for a recession in the next year or two, because there are no signs of anything stimulating our economy. So if people truly are leveraged that much in our cities, a bump in unemployment could send things downward quite quickly.

Just a few hours south of Vancouver, the tech industry in Seattle is getting crazy and the housing prices have went up considerably. Rent is quite expensive there now but that's because rent is driven by economic conditions, so it makes sense. I've been in the Vancouver real estate market since 2000 and it's not fundamental economics that has caused the house prices to rise this much.
__________________
"Happiness lies in the joy of achievement and the thrill of creative effort"
AWDTurboLuvr is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2014, 11:11 PM   #2174
I contribute to threads in the offtopic forum
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: not vancouver
Posts: 2,647
Thanked 1,936 Times in 764 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Z3guy View Post
If you can't hack it, you can't hack it! whatever bitter boy!
i can hack it fine, thanks - had one of the better careers of the people i know.

moved, make >50% more, live a life that is WAY more rewarding, exciting, and opens up huge opportunitites

it's not that i couldn't 'hack it' i was living a very privileged life, for saying it is 100% of my own doing/hard work, but the point is life outside of vancouver can be WAY better than life inside - if you've never lived around the world (which many don't have the ability to do), then you won't realize just how stunted life in vancouver is.

it's hilarious that you think i left because i couldn't hack it - i left because vancouver couldn't GIVE ME enough, not the other way round
4444 is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2014, 11:14 PM   #2175
I contribute to threads in the offtopic forum
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: not vancouver
Posts: 2,647
Thanked 1,936 Times in 764 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by RFlush View Post
I agree that it is great to go out and explore the world, or even within Canada. Most people in Vancouver live in a bubble and love Vancouver yet haven't truly lived anywhere else. The world is huge, I encourage everyone to go see it for what it's worth.

I disagree that Vancouver is a toxic place. I was born and raised in Vancouver and have lived in Hong Kong for the past 5 years. It has been a great experience and has benefited me greatly financially, but now at my age with a baby on the way and thinking about the future, I can say that Vancouver is a great place to raise a family. I can't compare to anything else except HK, but having more open spaces, less stress and allowing children to be more creative is something that's more important to me than just money. I think about the health care, the education and everything and Vancouver isn't that bad.

Your friends who haven't returned to Vancouver are probably single or people with no kids.
you hit the nail on the head.

great place to raise kids - but the thing is, if you're kids are going to be successful, they'll likely have to leave in their 20's too. that's the bit that needs to change in vancouver, it needs to be a great place to retire, raise kids, educate kids, safety, healthcare (all there) - but also needs to be a great place to build a career.

vancouver's too small of a town to talk like it talks (or should i say for the residents to talk so big)
4444 is offline  
Reply With Quote
This post thanked by:
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -8. The time now is 03:39 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
SEO by vBSEO ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Revscene.net cannot be held accountable for the actions of its members nor does the opinions of the members represent that of Revscene.net