"Vancouver has it's ups and downs, but what makes you think that Vancouver is a boom bust town?"

Boom = ups bust= downs... these guys think so too:
Environmental and Land Management and Sauder’s Associate
Dean, Faculty and Research and Real Estate Foundation
of BC Professor in Real Estate Finance, and Director, UBC Centre
for Urban Economics and Real Estate.

oh and here's their research paper, don't believe me or realtor but at least read this article before buying your investment condo (buy ten and retire a millionaire in 6 years)! pay attention to page 16, DATA shows (not opinions) over 50% drop in prices in 1981-1982. I guess no one here was around in 1982.

http://www.sauder.ubc.ca/AM/Template...ontentID=13934

agree with the article, but it's also from 2005. look at what's happened since.

unless somebody can determine whether there's a gross oversupply right now, they don't know what will happen in the next few yrs.. they're just guessing.

that said, the easy money's been made in condos - most of them are too expensive to have that much upside anymore

I wish property would stop appreciating until the day I sell it, my damn property tax keeps increasing every year! FYI, my property assessment in 2006 was 580,000, in 2007 it was 675,000 and the bank just assessed it last month at 725,000.

I'm actually hoping market will crash, since I plan on living in my house for a long time, I'll save on property tax, and then I can hopefully purchase a rental apartment.

Thats actually a big misconception....


Just because the market crashes doesn't mean that your property tax will become lower.

i wish i live in yaletown seen the view there!! i was in aawh!

is it a freehold or leasehold property??

I don't know what I will be doing in 4 years, let alone 40!


I just want to live in a nice place now, get drunk, and impress bitches with the view

Would you like to change that outlook Realtor?


"A few months ago, hes on the move again to look for a property, and the exact same wage which he was making this year can't afford the same thing he was looking for last year. Now he says wait till the real estate market crashes. Oh the money he could have made."

Raybot: now your "client" can wait another year and save another 20%. Or do you think he should still buy today? I hope not...

Pfft...I frankly don't care if hes looking to buy. His criteria is like searching for something thats imaginary. That guy missed his chance. I've got my priorities with people that have a lil bit more of a broader outlook. And no...i don't think he should buy today...mainly because i lost interest in assisting him.

Great thing about a forum like this is that you can get viewpoints that aren't from sources that have vested interests. Also great to compare people's predictions. I am sure that Realtor/Raybot/misscrayon... are great real estate agents but they are dead wrong on their predictions. Anyone who is thinking about buying real estate now needs to have their heads examined. And for those who read this thread 6 months ago and still bought, you can still get Realtor to sell your place today before its too late! He\she might even give you a discount on the commission (another topic)!

Let me quote the Realtors on this thread:

"My personal outlook on the market is that it will continue to climb, although not at a rate that we have seen in previous years. Downtown condo's usually hold their value the best in comparison to other areas, because dowtown is usually where a lot of people want to be and there is limited space down there. However, a house with land will usually hold it's value because land is even more scarce."

"so true. real estate will always hold value no matter the decrease in sales. however, many potential buyers still seem to believe the pricing will go down and that they'll "wait," when i really don't see developers lowering their prices. anyways, i say the best place to invest is still in the downtown core. it's a lifestyle that many still want to live by so even if you decide to resell or rent out--there will definitely be a market for it."

"Lots of people are talking about renting because the real estate market is going to crash soon....blah blah blah."

"The thing is, Tiger Handheld's post is true....but in ways, its misleading. If those statistics is generalizing the overall real estate market, and more than half of those properties that are sold are condos.....well that means there is a very good chance that value of single family housing and land could have gone up a good notch!

In other words, if you can afford a downtown condo, you may want to invest into buying a house...it can almost be assured that it may be the safer investment. "

And my all time favourite, nothing against you miss crayon but:

"what i mean is, yeah the market is slowing down..but i don't see the value of (lets just say) my unit in the downtown core will decrease in terms of price just because of it. we're not in the middle of a crisis or anything."

wow talk about having a crystal ball...

i don't get what you're saying. so the market has dipped recently, but it's still not time to buy since we're not yet at the bottom of the valley?

i though the realtors in this thread have been fairly even handed in their assessment of the future. they weren't sure of the future, staking a gut feeling that it may even rise.

i'm no expert. i'm just starting out. trying to get my feet wet in all this. but i'm of the opinion that real estate will always continue to rise. land especially, condos are a bit hazier to assess. small downturns like this are just that. take year over year increases in value over the long term, you will come out on top. trying to swoop in when it's on a downturn is like hitting a moving target. you can try to wait it out, but it might just keep going up.

you can just say screw it, hunker down, buy something, and start paying it off. or you can wait it out, keeping what you're doing (keep on renting) and hope the prices come down enough that you'll end up ahead.

i read this thread hoping to give me some insight on the market situation. my plan is to buy up a smallish condo for myself. then when i need something bigger, i'll buy it then, keeping the condo, renting it out until a good time to sell. could be short term, could be longer term. i figure, when you buy, whatever you put into it, you get back (as long as the market doesn't crash horrifically).

It's important to remember that not all properties decrease in value in times like this. You have the right idea rbx, so long as it works within your framework and you can afford it. Be smart and you'll be fine. Remember also that the media grabs a hold of a hot topic and rolls with it...they love this stuff and it often gets inflated beyond reality. Reality being that people will continue to buy real estate because primary residences will always be required. As a realtor myself, sure, it's not great out there but deals can still be had . I just bought myself an investment property that made sense financially. When nobody else is looking there will always be an opportunity for the another person. Just be smart and good luck in your endeavor.

Rob

Why would you buy now when you can have the same thing for 30-40% less in a year or two? Don't believe the real estate propoganda machine, that is telling you that this is a 'small' dip in the market and that anytime is a good time to buy. This is nonsense. There is a huge supply of condos out there and more inventory is being piled on each month. There are over 20,000 properties listed in the GVRD. Guess how many sales last month? 1364. I hope your starting to get the picture... oh another number you might be interested in is this: 9800 real estate agents in GVRD. hmmmm... divide that by 1364 sales in october 2008, that gets you 0.139 sales a month! Since one sale of a house usually requires two agents (the seller and buyer's agent) that means these two agents have to share 0.139 sales. I hope your starting get the picture...

please feel free to inform me if my numbers are incorrect and discuss...

For every percent that real estate prices rise I will pay any real estate agent on this board $50, for every percent that real estate prices fall they will have to pay me $10. Time frame? Starting today to december 2010. I am giving you a great time frame because when the winter games finally come to vancouver the whole world will want to buy a condo with marble countertops! ? I'm giving you serious odds here, anyone want to take it? Just PM me.

i was working in surrey on the king george tower got shut down and they have no investors and what wsa this i heard olympic sqaure needs 120 million to finish there stupid small ass apartment high rise buy to live not to double up

no takers? ok i'll pay $100 for every percentage that vancouver real estate prices rise to any real estate agent on this board, and they pay me $10 for every percentage drop. Same time frame. pls PM me anytime.

I will even donate my winnings to the charity of your choice!

I'm going to have to side with 1.8tradoman on this one.

My father has been a realtor since 1981. I've seen him go from being busy as heck raking in the cash to no income for lengthy periods. The market is cyclical. He can tell you that. Fortunately, he had the resources to buy properties on his own and supplement his own income losses and maximize his gains during the booms. He's since retired, however, he has commented many times over the past three years at the number of armchair real-estate investors and the burgeoning number of realtors popping up. I've heeded his advice and waited out this recent boom. It's tough living at home, but as a financial decision my dad wouldn't let me buy yet. He still won't.

It's sad to hear so many people prop up their hopes on 2010. Unfortunately, the city will be busy for a month. Tourists are not going to all of a sudden buy up every property in the city two weeks before the games begin. The ones that want to, have already done so. After the games are gone, who is going to occupy all these newly developed properties? For anyone that references 2010, I always recommend researching other Olympic games, such as Salt Lake City or Atlanta to get an idea of what kind of impact hosting an Olympic games have on a city. It's not the utopian monster profit dream many people seem to hold.

Unfortunately, there are going to be many people left with their pants around their ankles as the banks bend them over a table. More alarming is the potential for a deep recession or even a depression should the US automakers close shop. Property prices will take a sharp dive if such occurs imo.

Kev

Seriously...are you trying to prove something?

The discussion was a good set of valid points back and forth and both sides of the table, where your arguments have been a little bit more visibly concrete.

It seems now that your arguments are just turning into mere arrogance.

LOL you can sense the desperation on the part of the realtors on this board. Cocky mother fuckers a year ago - not so much now eh?...10,000 realtors in Vancouver? you mean Vancouver proper? sounds like everyone in the North Shore and their grandmother is one. You guys are one step below Used Car Salesmen - At least with them they don't try and fake an illusion of anything more than you buying a depreciating asset. :agree:

I may appear to be arrogant in my previous posts but my only agenda has been to hopefully convince people on this board who have been thinking about buying real estate, especially condos, to look beyond the advice given on this board from real estate agents. If I go to a motorcycle shop and ask for an opinion, there's no way in hell the sales guy is going to tell me to turn around and buy a car instead. Worst case scenerio for me is to buy that $15000 GSX-R 1000 and drive it into my garage. The consequences for making an uninformed decision on a $500,000 condo could be disastrous. Agent makes his/her commission and your left to holding the bag.

There has yet to be a valid point on this thread indicating that buying a condo today (or since this thread was started) is a good idea. Please show me one.

How many presales have you personally bought Raybot? I am just curious because I know a few who have 2 or 3 that will be completed within the next year and I am recommending that they walk away from their deposits. They got caught in the tide and its going the wrong way.

I haven't bought a single presale because i have no need for any....and i personally know where the trend is going...especially downtown. Thats why, when i had my one and only listing downtown, i couldn't wait till the listing expired for many, many ridiculous reasons.

However...the realtors here still have an opinion on the market, which already has been stated which are opposing arguements to your very own. At the same time, none of them disagreed with your statements either (after a quick skim).

And its like any of those realtors are assisting the guy with his purchase, so what do they have to gain really?? So why would they state an opinon that they didn't personally beleive in??

I know a lot of realtors that are there to take advantage of the market ride, and from experience, i know who NOT to deal with. But i am personally in it for the long haul. Meaning...my job description is to aid people to get into homes to a representation standpoint, and help people get out of their homes for whatever reason, whether its upsizing, downsizing, court-ordered, or liquifying an investment. Not to maximize the ROI of an investor.

Other people get paid to analyze future market trends, economics, etc...and they are paid to be right. Our opinions about the future, as realtors, aren't worth 2 cents....because thats not our job. But it doesn't mean our opinions are invaluable because it justifies a sale.

So your saying if you put down 60,000 a year ago on a place you should just walk away from that 60 :confused:
I have been following the market alittle bit and i know prices have dropped down alot from 40-80000 depending on area and house/condo. But if you put down 60 and it drops 40-50 now and you plan to live in it for 3-10 years. The market will come back, not to the point it once was but it will come back.

remember.....value is in the dirt....a pie in the sky (condo) pretty much depreciates every year, especially when their is more supply than demand + you have monthly condo fees.....Let's do an example;

Downtown Vancouver Condo
Cost: $300,000 for a 600 sqft 1 bedroom ($500 per sq ft)
Downpayment: 25% or $75,000
Monthly Mrgt: $225,000 at 6% for 25yrs = $1600
Monthly Condo Fee = $200 (assume no swimming pool)
Monthly Taxes = $100
Total Monthly Commitment = $1900

I think the most you can rent a decent 1 bedroom downtown is for $1500 a month. Net, net you would have to kick in additional $400 a month.

With the state of the economy, I would float low ball offers all over the place....it is a buyers market..what do you got to lose? I would also target condos that have been owned by the same owner for at last 3 years......the reason why?...if they bought at least 3yrs ago, you know they made at least $100k+ in profit...hence they would be more willing to drop their price Vs someone who bought 1 year ago. However, I think if you want to invest in Real Estate, I would suggest looking at a Vancouver special style house with 3 suites.....at least you own the dirt....my two cents.