"My personal outlook on the market is that it will continue to climb, although not at a rate that we have seen in previous years.
Downtown condo's usually hold their value the best in comparison to other areas, because dowtown is usually where a lot of people want to be and there is limited space down there. However, a house with land will usually hold it's value because land is even more scarce." Quote made by Realtor 04-26-2008.

"Some say that the market will continue to increase due to the olympics, foreign investment from Asian markets and East Coaster's coming here, the amount of money the government is pumping into our economy building a better infrastructure in the GVRD, the fact that Vancouver is still one of the best places in the world to live and is still not too expensive in comparison to some other cities, our interest rates have been dropping again so it's cheaper to borrow money, etc etc etc." Quote made by Realtor 04-28-2008

"This quote states that they think that demand will not be as hot and that lower interest rates will help affordability - therefore even though there isn't as much demand, prices should not drop much (unless they have priced it wrong)." Realtor 04-29-2008

wrong, dead wrong... please people, you have to do your own research. How could he be so wrong? He's paid to ignore the bad and sell you the good.

I've been getting some PM's about forecasting the future, i cannot predict the future but I am pretty damn sure not one single realtor will take my bet. ;)

we are now in a middle of a crisis :O
housing prices are gonna tank for a while

my realtor told me vancouver only sold 5 houses last week. I'm so glad i got got rid of mine :haha:

I just went through this entire thread. damn it's epic!

1.8tradoman you are my hero!

Here are my predictions for 2009.

1. Vancouver Downtown Condo's down 20%. Not even Realtor's expert opinion is going to save the downtown core. Here is his quote:

"Downtown condo's usually hold their value the best in comparison to other areas, because dowtown is usually where a lot of people want to be and there is limited space down there. However, a house with land will usually hold it's value because land is even more scarce."

2. Vancouver SFH down 20%. Even the rich and famous rely on leverage to buy their monster mansions. Negative cash flow properties will get dumped onto the market and further depress the situation.

3. MSM (mainstream media/Rennie marketing machine) continuing to suggest that buying condos will turn you into a millionaire after 2010 when all the rich asians and europeans want to buy a condo in Vancouver after seeing Canada Ice Hockey team defeat the US for the gold medal.

4. Real estate agents on this site and across the lowermainland screaming Spring 2009 will be the LAST CHANCE for you to buy in before you get PRICED OUT forever. This will be their last ditch effort to sell to the Greatest Fool still standing in the presale lineup.

5. 10,000 registered real estate agents in GVRD. I predict 30% will hand in their licenses.

6. Not one single real estate agent on this board will take my bet.

7. Olympic Village Development (public) unsold units vs. Concord, Onni, Polygon (private) unsold units. Its going to be a race to the bottom. Vancouver city begins to pimp Olympic Village units and Private developers get angry and sue the city for dumping condos into the marketplace.

8. Thread Lock!

What are your predictons? Realtor? Ratbot? Crayon?

correction:
 

I have to amend one of my predictions: Number 4 says:

Real estate agents on this site and across the lowermainland screaming Spring 2009 will be the LAST CHANCE for you to buy in before you get PRICED OUT forever. This will be their last ditch effort to sell to the Greatest Fool still standing in the presale lineup.

I must add and include all mortgage brokers, real estate promoters, investment property development fund managers, and house insurance brokers to this list.

I haven't been on this site for about 9 months or so now, but you still have some major issues 1.8tradoman. If you read my previous posts, I did say that I felt the market would increase slightly in 2008, but I did state that that would only happen if market conditions remained the same. My argument with you before was that you were so sure that the market was going to drop, and luckily for you it has, but like i stated in previous posts, my main beef with you was how you were so sure. Also, changes did occur in the market with the U.S. government dumping money into these big corporations when it's supposed to be a free market, tightened lending practices, new documentation to prove money, consumer confidence, etc, etc.

I hope that people will actually take the time to read previous posts because you seem to only pull out certain commnets to make me and the other realtors on this board look like asses.

As for my comments about the downtown core, it remains true, as the downtown core has not dropped in value as much as the outskirts and yes, a house with land has still held it's value more than condo's in general. I'm sure you are retarded enough to find the anomoly and point it out here since you feel that you are god, so feel free to do so. Also, I did not rule out a drop in the market.

As for this quote that you pulled from way back:

"Some say that the market will continue to increase due to the olympics, foreign investment from Asian markets and East Coaster's coming here, the amount of money the government is pumping into our economy building a better infrastructure in the GVRD, the fact that Vancouver is still one of the best places in the world to live and is still not too expensive in comparison to some other cities, our interest rates have been dropping again so it's cheaper to borrow money, etc etc etc." Quote made by Realtor 04-28-2008"

If you read back to my original post, I gave reasons on why people felt that the market would increase AND reasons why people felt that it would decrease because I wanted to inform people about both sides of the coin. Why didn't you copy the entire post? What's wrong with you? You constantly talk of realtors warping people to make money. Why are you trying to warp people?

It's also funny that you are telling people to do their own research now when that was my whole point before. Do your own research and make your own decisions.

As for your bet, I personally will not take it because there are a lot of factors that may hinder growth, but there are still some that may help or reduce the negative impact in BC, but I don't pretend to be god and say I know what's going to happen.

Also, you keep mentioning and bad mouthing certain realtors. I don't know about which ones you meet, but most of us are professional and don't make stupid comments like the ones you keep talking about. Maybe you got burned by an idiot realtor, and if this is your way of taking it out on us, so be it.

You also pull comments from other people and comments from me and mould them all into one. Please refrain from doing so and anyone that actually takes the time to read these posts will see that you are just shitting. Also, I may or may not agree to everyone elses opinions, so don't just shove them into mine.

Raybot, I feel sorry for you for taking so much time to deal with this tard. I didn't want to bother with him anymore, but he keeps twisting the facts.

Oh wellz, live and learn.

how is there no incentive for a realtor from doing the best they can do? it's called getting repeat customers that keep on buying from you after a good business relationship has been made. do you really think a client is going to go back to their original realtor if he/she made zero effort to help the client? maybe you're just meeting half assed realtors in this city but i know a ton that do a damn good job.

and do you even know how much work the genuine realtors do to represent their clients? take a look at the agents that are taking the time to put ads in the magazines and the the money out from their own pocket to support those ads? please don't clump the shady ass realtors you know from the ones that actually are trying to help clients when it comes to purchasing a home.

+ everything raybot said

You guys (Realtor) can spin all you want, the fact is that you were wrong on your predictions and I hope that none of your clients took your advice and bought in April 2008 when you clearly suggested that there would be no correction. here is your full quote:

"There actually are a number of arguments for both sides of the coin. Some say that the market will continue to increase due to the olympics, foreign investment from Asian markets and East Coaster's coming here, the amount of money the government is pumping into our economy building a better infrastructure in the GVRD, the fact that Vancouver is still one of the best places in the world to live and is still not too expensive in comparison to some other cities, our interest rates have been dropping again so it's cheaper to borrow money, etc etc etc.
For the other side of the coin, people say that the winter olympics is only a short lived event and that it can't sustain prices, our Canadian dollar is so high at this point in time that it costs a lot more for foreign people to buy here, the baby boomers will evenutally die off leading to more supply, etc etc etc.
I'm kinda tired now and I can't remember any more points, but yeah like I stated earlier, I think the market will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. As for 2011 and 2012 and afterwards, the market will most likely slow down or even dip a bit. But that will depend on many factors, so it's impossible to tell."

I've read this a few times now and you clearly stated that the MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO RISE.

Having a conversation over the keyboard is definitely not the best way to have a fair discussion about an important issue such as real estate. Sometimes things are over blown or misinterpreted when you are typing on a keyboard instead of talking directly to people. I am sorry that I appeared to act in a God-like fashion. I am sorry that I was right. I have learned alot from this thread and I hope you have too.

The thread was started by what I would call a potential FTB. I stated my opinion/predictions and (professional) real estate agents on this site disagreed. I was hoping someone in the real estate profession could educate me about real estate, where they thought it was headed and if it is a good idea to buy. So far, not very convincing.

I bought my first home in 2001 using a real estate agent. She did a great job. So there's no underlying hate for realtors here. In fact after completing a sale without one (realtor) last year, i would use an agent for my next purchase to avoid all the hassles.

Please tell me if it is a good time to buy a condo and why.

Realtor: What are your predictions for 2009? I promise that I won't quote or use them against you. I am just curious where you think real estate is going in 2009.

Crayon, IIRC the gripe about the commission structure is outlined in Freakonomics (Levitt and Dubner).

Taking a nominal example - the realtor gets, say, 1.5% for every dollar above $300k (I forget what the normal commission levels are). Suppose that you're the vendor and asking for $350k. You get an offer for $330 and if you accept, the realtor gets $450 on top of whatever they get for the first $300k.

But let's say that the realtor has a good knowlege of the area and "knows" that you could squeeze out $350k for your property quite easily, either by bouncing the offer back or by aggressively looking for another prospect. However, to do so, they'd have to do a bunch more work... a few more hours of back n forth etc etc etc. For all those hours of work they gross an additional... $300.

So the realtor goes ahead and doesn't advise you that you could probably get another $20k (gross) on your property, because it doesn't end up being worth their time.

Does this represent the behaviour of all RE agents? Probably not, but Levitt and Dubner did some datamining and figured, iirc, that houses sold by RE agents sold for slightly more, and stayed on-market longer (meaning that they tended to hold out a bit for better offers).

1.8Trado, you've been reading the Vancouver Condo/housing blogs, haven't you?! :D

Your damn right that I did some research before dropping $500,000 on an Onni built leaky condo.
Good luck trying to explain why real estate agents have no incentive to represent the interests of the buyer or seller. They still can't get past the idea that real estate prices cannot be sustained.

Are you illiterate? You say that you have read that a few times and it clearly states that the market will continue to rise, but what part of it do you not understand?
"I THINK the market will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. As for 2011 and 2012 and afterwards, the MARKET WILL MOST LIKELY SLOW DOWN OR EVEN DIP BIT. BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON MANY FACTORS, SO IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL."

Ok so now it's 2009 and like I stated before, changes in the market have occured and the market has dropped - yes earlier than I predicted. Funny thing is, I never full out disagreed with the fact that you felt the market was dropping, I just didn't like how you felt you KNEW the market was dropping.

I did clearly state that the market would not be as hot as previous years, and due to fluctuations in market conditions that I have mentioned in my above post, by late spring, I started to change my opinions about the market still rising, although I did not take the time to log into Revscene to post my changing opinion. I did however express my concerns to my clients and even in the beginning of the year when i felt that the market would still increase slightly, I did provide my clients with the other side of the coin so that they could make their own choices. By early summer, i did express to most of my clients that market would probably be dropping and some were lucky enough to sell their places.

As for if it's a good time to buy a condo now, it will depend on different things and people should talk to a good realtor (not the ones that 1.8 tradoman keeps mentioning). The market definitely is not as hot as previous years, but different people have different motivations for buying and the market always changes. No one knows for a fact when the market will go up or down (except 1.8 tradoman of course - he can always predict the future.)

As for my predictions for 2009 - so far the market has been horrible and people have been waiting to see when it will go up again, and so no one has been buying lately. As I mentioned before, the fall-winter market is typically bad, but the market usually picks up a bit in spring. People may buy either because they need to, or they may feel that the bottom is near or over. I THINK that the market will pick up a bit this spring. As for the rest of the year, there are a lot of factors that may change things. Do your research people.

1.8 tradoman - I do apologize to you that I keep taking jabs at you and maybe you don't intend to sound like god. You do seem like an intelligent person but you seem caustic in your replies and you do have to admit that you only hand picked quotes to support your own arguments. (Don't worry I do this when I negotiate too.) Maybe you would make a good realtor or business man one day. :)

Obviously I am generalizing, but you realtors make me laugh, you guys are 1 step up from used car salesman. The majority of reatlors could care less to get an extra $10K or $20K for their clients because the increase in commission is minimal.

Sorry...kinda have to disagree. With the financial blah blah blah is going on.....looks like a used car salesman may be the career sales choice for the next year.

You really still don't get it do you? The financial meltdown will effect you and your clients.

Oh yes the panic is starting in Vancouver.... ONNI to LIQUIDATE inventory...

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-col...ondo-sale.html

This is the beginning of the rush to the exits and the last ones standing will be real estate agents holding presales and Raybot's clients who don't care about the coming crash. (not trying to single you out Raybot but you really seem like you think everything is fine and dandy).

Guess what your investment condo looks like now? you just got wacked a possible 20-40%. And if you listen to the real estate agents they will tell you its still a good time to buy!

And one more thing.. imagine you had just bought one of those units in the ONNI development YESTERDAY on the advice of a real estate agent. And now the exact unit gets liquidated at 20%-40% discount. Would you be angry enough to sue your agent for NEGLIGENCE? hmm... food for thought... i sure would...

To be fair to real estate agents here, it does take $875 and 6 months of correspondance to be a real estate "Professional". Does that include a CRASH course? j\k

reference: http://www.sauder.ubc.ca/AM/Template...rvices#tuition.

So I would like to ask, if there was a unit for sale at the Shangri La strata at the price of say back when it was 2004 for example, when condo prices in DT was still reasonable. Would you guys consider it since it is already 20-40% cheaper than the prices are as of right now.

Of course i don't care...i don't deal with pre-sales, because theres nothing worth anyones while..and i know that. I've already mentioned it three times in this thread...i don't deal with investors. Realtor already said it a couple of times people have different motivations for buying or selling. . Sure, nobody likes to lose money on ANYTING that they buy...but every single one of your implications imply that everyone's purpose of buying real estate is to have a return on investment.

YES! The purpose of buying real estate IS to have a return on investment! Please tell me who buys real estate with the intention of NOT having a return? Give me their names and I will gladly take their money with no intention of giving them a return on their investment.

Not everyone can have their parents give them money to buy a condo (although I think this may be the case with many FTB's today). Those who actually had to work and save for a deposit on a home will know what I am talking about. Why would you throw away your hard earned money?

As for Realtor's differing motivations when buying a condo, its all just tip toeing around the fact that there is NO logical reason why you should buy a condo now, 6 months ago when this thread began, or this year! He just won't come out and say it (without disclaimers).

The great thing about condos is that it is very easy to look at similar units and compare them against each other. Most real estate agents don't realize this but THE LAST PURCHASE PRICE DOES NOT SET THE MARKET in a bear market that we are in right now. Just because some dimwit bought at $750 per square foot last week doesn't mean you should put in a similar offer based on the last purchase price of a similar unit. I like how you have used 2004 price levels as a starting point for purchasing a condo. I would start looking at 2001 price levels. There's a ton of reasons. PM me if your seriously looking to put an offer on the table (I will not gain anything other than knowing someone is not getting screwed over).

You know what the strata fees are at Shangri La right? Unit 1808 will run you a cool $550 month. Just for fun because this is a car forum, you can lease a 2009 BMW 135i Coupe with Nav control for that kind of money. No kidding. My buddy works at BMW (and he'll sell you anything in that lot too).

buy my unit this summer.
yaletown (2 years old), 31st floor, 1 bedroom + office, ss appliances + granite counters, in suite laundry, parking, balcony with grill, gym downstairs, etc etc... :D :D :D

Thanks for the input man, I've gotten so many lectures from so many different ppl already about his purchase. I liked how you've owned every other realtors in this thread though haha. Nice. I've already put down a official offer for the unit. Basically US investors bought in 2004, put down deposit, sold it to another US investor who took over the deposit and additional lift in 2005. Now they cannot find financing to close the deal so they just want their deposit and lift back. So when it comes down to it, I would still be purchasing at the 2004 pricing. I do have to pay tax though, the unit is not completed yet. Any comments?

If you have a look at Craigslist there are tons of condo units for sale where owners are willing to walk away from their deposits if someone wants to takeover financing upon completion. There is speculation that Onni is auctioning some of these condos because they can sue the original purchaser for the difference. This is just the beginning. Unless you are dead against renting for a year or two, I would rescind your offer, give them some BS reason (lack of financing), AND WAIT. If there were a way that I could short Vancouver real estate right now , I would put every penny into it ( No one willing to take my bet ). I think you already know what my response would be. There's a long way to go down... and what's your hurry anyways? By winter time your going to have real estate agents climbing over each other to give you a better deal.

1.8tradoman is my hero :thumbsup: Although I don't agree with everything you have said in this thread, I agree with probably 90% of it. Myself being deeply involved in not only the local land development market, but globally, it makes me happy to see that some people know what they are talking about.

Two years ago me and my friend were screaming that the market was over saturated and prices were going to correct themselves before the Olympics came. Glad I'm right.

Not really going to say much else because 1.8tradoman pretty much explained everything pretty well.

In the Vancouver Sun today they had a big article on how the market right now is great for first time home buyers and they should jump in on the asap. I laughed. Unless you plan on living in that first time buyer condo for 10+ years maybe. Market correction is going to be occurring for a little while longer.