:werd:

Basically the market is not reflecting the environment around it.

All of the United States of America... hahaha

Guys I had to chime in. I usually stay out of this shit but due to recent real estate transactions I will give you a heads up.

Market has declined, of course it has and it will. BUT...

Vancouver is a city that is going through major change, things that are affecting real estate prices are still in play like the Olympics for example. This is still keeping the market afloat when it should have dipped.

Vancouver also has waay to many major areas to predict a SINGLE up or down. Maybe in burnaby, Poco or what have you you may see a sharp decline in a 1 br 700 sq ft apartment BUT in DT vancouver prices are still high for the right location.

You are still paying 380K+ for a 535 sq ft apartment in Coal Harbour. Try finding anything cheaper than that. My point is that the location matters as well.

Not everything is taking a dive right now so the real estate agent is able to make sales without taking anybody to the cleaners.

I am not a real estate agent, in fact I just sued a developer/agent and won my case in North Vancouver for a pre-sale that was going south but I know that even across a bridge values change and certain types of land do not take a hit. Waterfront, etc...

I read this whole thread and came to the conclusion that most of you are right, all your points make some sense but they all apply to different places in Vancouver.

My favorite: Supply and Demand... 100% true - if there is too much property price goes down but again, in my waterfront example, do you think there is that much property left in Vancouver for the price to even budge?

Thanks for the read...

I have to respectfully disagree with you Flat6. Look at this chart: Remember this is updated to Q3 2008, I couldn't find the new release for Q4 of 2008 (not that the news will be better).

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf...ase_112555.pdf

Now look at which cities are leading the charge with double digit depreciation for 2008.

LA, Maimi, San Diego, and San Francisco. All cities NEXT to the WATER!

Why will Vancouver avoid this downturn? Olympics and shortage of land are your reasons.
Well the Olympics argument has been beat to death, we'll see in 2010 if the Olympics are going to make a difference.

Shortage of land, another fear based selling tactic that real estate agents use in selling property. Kinda like "Buy now or be priced out foreever".

If there was a shortage of land (prime coast line included) Why did Japan suffer almost 20 years of land asset depreciation? Japan is an island with a high ratio of coast property to inland property. Most of its major cities are along the coast line (waterfront) and consequently so are the major industries and ports. Now tell me with all this PRIME waterfront property in such high demand and a shortage of WATER-FRONT land, why did japan suffer 20 years of land depreciation?

Shortage of land argument is BS! It seems like a very sexy argument but it is not. Coastal cities in the US are leading fallout in real estate values in the US. The crash in Vancouver will slice thru all geographical areas, except the Olympic Village because it was built on RECLAIMED waterfront land and the athletes who stayed there will make it more valuable. (j\k).

PS- Ironic that we can create waterfront (shortage) when the need arises?

here's the link to japan land prices: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSg...-176-10-10.png

Funny you would ask that, here's one guy on this site who thought about it :

http://www.revscene.net/forums/borro...t-t469513.html

They allowed this type of mortgage for years... thats not funny.

screw the Olympics. I bet half the countries that normally compete will cancel showing up next year due to lack of government and private funding... it'll be the worst showing olympics in a long time.

and lots of tourists will cancel their plane, hotel and rent bookings and not show up either due to being broke. anyone renting their place out for the Olympics, I hope you collected 100% cash upfront the day they booked, otherwise you're going to be kicked in the junk.

wow..... you are one unhappy person....

no, just realistic. and a tax payer.

I bet my buddy is feeling like an idiot now for waiting in line for 4 hours for presale on a 700sq ft unit in MAPLE FUCKING RIDGE.

what goes up, must come down

I have a question for you all, I know that it is a subjective question but would like to know all your inputs since you all seem to be knowledgable in your own way.

I hear in media and other sources that the real estate prices will fall xx%. It does get confusing because some are referring to a xx% fall from its highest point while others say xx% from last year/quarter/month etc.

So my question is, how much will prices decline from its highest point? I ask this because I am in the market and have been for about 1.5 years. Luckily I did not buy last year but am considering something soon.

Thanks all.

nobody will know untill it starts going back up again...

Well since I have all but chased out most of the real estate agents here, I will answer your question on their behalf.

Yes now is a good time to buy! Real estate values always go up and why pay your landlord's mortgage, stop throwing your money away. Interest rates are at historical lows so borrowing as much as you can now will insure that you can maximize your investment in the near future. Also we have the Olympics coming to Vancouver, and when all the rich asians and europeans see us on the world stage, they will buy vacation condo's which will drive up the real estate prices to unseen levels, double digit appreciation for another decade. We have a massive land shortage here in the GVRD, in fact we have the highest population densities north of the semiahmoo penisula, guaranteeing future land values. Plus Vancouver is almost always voted as the Best Place on Earth in many polls. We are a Lifestyle City, because we do not have a major manufactoring, banking, or agricultural industries. Look at Yaletown, with Mini dealership and health spa on the same block, its wonderful. Plus if you buy now, you won't have to pay any commission (that's what Raybot said). Don't worry about what's happening with the states, it won't effect us any because only 80% of our trade is with our neighbours in the south. We have social housing being built for the homeless at the Olympic Athletes Village for $1000 sq/ft., by comparison that bodes well for the future price of condos, because if we can afford to put low income families on prime reclaimed waterfront what will stop Vancouverites from buying even more expensive condo's for themselves? There's alot of real estate agents to choose from right now so you can select the best of the best, you might even find one with post secondary education, preferably with degree in economics, who understands the concept of supply vs. demand. This small drop in home prices is just a statistical blip and we see with all the positive factors listed that home prices will stablize and rise by Q4 of 2009 (10% up near the waterfront). This is a buyer's market, meaning that there is so much inventory out there you better start buying now before its too late and you get priced out forever. We hear lots of interest at open houses and it won't be long until bidding wars begin again. Spring is traditionally a good time to buy a house especially for Feng shui reasons. Vacancy rates are very low in Vancouver, so you can become a landlord and even draw an income from your house. Just look at Craigslist.ca and see the number of rentals properties have skyrocketed since summer 2008. There must be alot of renters out there because we have had net migration to BC since confederation. There are so many immigrants we cannot keep up with building enough condos for all these new people. When these new immigrants come here the first thing they buy is property. The professionals at real estate boards have the expertise to help you get into your new home, take advantage of the opportunities today!

:lol @ Tradoman's post.

ultra_man, nobody really knows how much housing prices will fall from peak. A really really quick google indicates that local housing prices would need to drop some 50% from peak values to be a "normal" multiple of median income. We're already around 16% down from peak values.

Vancouver has always had a premium price of housing (IOW, the typical price of housing here is higher than the "normal" multiple of median income). I would still guesstimate that Vancouver has at least another 15-20% to go. Maybe (probably?!) more. But that's a wild guesstimate; best would be to do some more research.

I hope no one took 1.8tradoman's post literally.

:lol

The dam is starting to leak badly, when it finally breaks your going to see carnage...

http://blog.macleans.ca/2009/02/23/t...-of-your-home/

Get ready for an interesting spring for Vancouver real estate, I have my popcorn and soda ready for the main event...

At this rate, I'll actually be able to afford a condo in a couple of years. Can't wait.

Sorry, but I have little sympathy for these buyers who appear to have more money than brains. These buyers (especially in today's market) are willing to contractually agree to purchase a presale before they have any proceeds in hand from the sale of their current residence, and then cry river when they can't sell their home to cover the deposit.

While I agree presales (and the parasitic amateur investors that seem to parallel these buildings) are a contributing factor for overinflated property values in the Lower Mainland, the current market turndown has yet to hit areas like the Downtown core head on at the moment. Stories of Buyers getting caught up in the presale limbo are likely an anomoly and don't fully reflect the entire market.

The spring will indeed be interesting to follow.

thanks for the link, very interesting read!

boy im tellin ya the economy is bad, its in rough shape - jay leno

i guess the 4-5 year prediction i had was a lil off :haha:

Just doing what a real estate agent would do for you, and that is protect your interests and provide pertinent information about real estate. There's a PR battle going on right now and information coming out of both sides should be considered unreliable at best. The reason why there is so much confusion about statistical information is because the CREA (real estate boards) will tweak the numbers by changing boundaries, categories, definitions, and time periods to massage the numbers to promote their cause.

I don't believe it is a full out conspiracy theory but these guys are really turning on the rhetoric and trying to save their members jobs. Its very transparent. I don't blame them. I have a problem with salespeople putting on the full court press to relatively naive people to chase down the last few commissions.

Almost reminds me of being in Puerto Vallarta and getting harrassed by Bilingual mexicans who want you to buy time shares at every corner. "Hola! you want to have free money amigo? Buy timeshare for your family and no commission man. $500 peso's if you sign up now, Only 10 shares left! Buy now or be priced out forever."

Vancouver SunMarch 17, 2009

"An artist's rendering of the Beasley, at the northeast corner of Homer and Smithe in downtown Vancouver. Prices are being cut by a minimum of 22 per cent because of reduced construction costs.
Photograph by: Vancouver Sun files, .Amacon, the Vancouver developer building The Beasley project downtown, is the latest builder offering discounts to buyers.

Amacon senior vice-president Bob Cabral said the company is cutting prices by a minimum of 22 per cent, from $100,000 to over $250,000 per unit, because of reduced construction costs.

"We are in a very different market than a year ago; when we negotiated our construction costs and realized the savings we made, we were happy to pass on that savings," Cabral said.

Cabral added that Amacon views this sale as a unique case that won't necessarily influence the overall market.

Cameron McNeil, president of MAC Marketing Solutions, which is handling the sales of Amacom's remaining units in the Beasley, said there are too few apartments left and such limited supply of units in development he doesn't believe the reductions will set any new benchmarks for downtown pricing."

"As for my comments about the downtown core, it remains true, as the downtown core has not dropped in value as much as the outskirts and yes, a house with land has still held it's value more than condo's in general. I'm sure you are retarded enough to find the anomoly and point it out here since you feel that you are god, so feel free to do so. Also, I did not rule out a drop in the market." Quote from Revscene Realtors Association.

Developers dumping units (downtown) surprise, surprise. Not taking a jab at anyone btw.

well if you wanted to buy at Beasley (or beastly, i like to call it) at the time, I just saved you $250,000 on that condo unit. Imagine the pain you would be in right now?

Still another year to go... please don't buy anything people, you have been warned. They are doing as much as possible to entice the FTB's into the market because without them there is no market. If you are a qualified FTB, don't get sucked in. It's very difficult not to get emotionally involved in real estate but there's no place for it, especially when we are talking about large amounts of money.

LOL where are the realtors now

I saw something today for fixed 5 year @ 3.8%. mortages are getting a little lower. still need housing to drop a bunch though.