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01-29-2011, 10:47 AM
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#1 | | I don't like cheese but I love milk!
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| Probability Theory Question?
is there a specific/academic terms or theory that explain this idea?
Example:
If you are to toss a coin 20 times, and all first 10 toss comes out as head, the probability of you getting a tail on your last 10 toss is still going to be 50/50.
Just because you had heads on your previous toss will not make it more likely for you to get a tail on your next toss.
*I am actually trying to explain this idea to a friend who believes there is a higher probability of winning on a slot machine that haven't had much winning before....
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01-29-2011, 10:50 AM
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#2 | | Kick' In' Duh' Bass
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LOL... The more money you put into a slot machine the more likely it will pay you out
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01-29-2011, 10:52 AM
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#3 | | I contribute to threads in the offtopic forum
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Kinda apples to orange thing here.
Your friend is right because slots are programmed to have a win every x amount of spins Posted via RS Mobile | |
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01-29-2011, 10:59 AM
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#4 | | I don't like cheese but I love milk!
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| Quote:
Originally Posted by vafanculo  Kinda apples to orange thing here.
Your friend is right because slots are programmed to have a win every x amount of spins Posted via RS Mobile | I was actually told slot machines have a "winning probability", but the way the probability work is like tossing a coin....instead of being programmed to "force" a payout for every x amount of dollars put in....
so it is possible that 2 identical machine can have a vastly different payout even if they've been played the same amount of money/time
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01-29-2011, 11:04 AM
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#5 | | What hasn't Killed me, has made me more tolerant of RS!
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i dont know anything about slot machines, but for your coin question...you're talking about "mutual exclusivity" and combinatorial probability. It basically says that if the two events (tossing a coin twice) cannot happen at the same time, then the two separate events should have no affect over one another.
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01-29-2011, 11:05 AM
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#6 | | Captain Happy Bubble is my Homeboy
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take him to the baccarat tables, the easy baccarat is 50/50
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01-29-2011, 11:11 AM
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#7 | | I have named my kids VIC and VLS
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baccarat isnt really 50/50 because of commission..
slots are all pre-programmed so its not like flipping a coin, who knows what the programming is like inside
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01-29-2011, 11:21 AM
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#8 | | I don't like cheese but I love milk!
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| Quote:
Originally Posted by Hondaracer baccarat isnt really 50/50 because of commission..
slots are all pre-programmed so its not like flipping a coin, who knows what the programming is like inside | i think they are like flipping a coin in the sense that... what happened on the previous cycle has no bearing on what happens next...
i.e. there is no such thing as "hot cycles", and a machine that just won the jackpot has the same probability of winning again on its next spin...
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01-29-2011, 11:27 AM
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#9 | | Wunder? Wonder?? Wander???
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then why is it that little old ladies scope out slot machines that people are not winning at to take over when they finally give up?
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01-29-2011, 11:30 AM
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#10 | | RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
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Mutual exclusivity has nothing to do with this.
Each toss is independent from each other, therefore the conditional probability of one more head given there has be X heads does not matter. i.e. the process is memoryless
edit: However, slot machines is a completely different story, because we don't know that the events are independent. It depends on how the payouts were programmed. I think it's better if you use roulette or baccarat as an example.
Last edited by fobulaus; 01-29-2011 at 11:36 AM.
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01-29-2011, 11:30 AM
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#11 | | I don't like cheese but I love milk!
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| Quote:
Originally Posted by younglude then why is it that little old ladies scope out slot machines that people are not winning at to take over when they finally give up? | cause they are stupid?
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01-29-2011, 11:31 AM
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#12 | | Head Moderator
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| Quote:
Originally Posted by younglude then why is it that little old ladies scope out slot machines that people are not winning at to take over when they finally give up? | Slots are required by law to have a certain percentage of wins based on different factors. A machine that hasn't thrown a winning spin in a while is, in theory, due any time to hit a jackpot. Posted via RS Mobile | |
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01-29-2011, 11:37 AM
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#13 | | RS.net, where our google ads make absolutely no sense!
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| Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferra i think they are like flipping a coin in the sense that...what happened on the previous cycle has no bearing on what happens next...
i.e. there is no such thing as "hot cycles", and a machine that just won the jackpot has the same probability of winning again on its next spin... | How do you know this?
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01-29-2011, 11:43 AM
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#14 | | I have named my kids VIC and VLS
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| Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferra i think they are like flipping a coin in the sense that...what happened on the previous cycle has no bearing on what happens next...
i.e. there is no such thing as "hot cycles", and a machine that just won the jackpot has the same probability of winning again on its next spin... | Computers have a VERY VERY hard time being completely random, this is learned in the most basic of programming courses one can take
therefore even the best programming, cannot fail to take into account previous spins, wether they were 3 ago, or 300,000 ago
If slots weren't programmed to work based on previous outcomes, even if that outcome only effects the next outcome by 0.1%, there would be alot more slot winners than there are.
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01-29-2011, 11:53 AM
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#15 | | The RS Freebie guru
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01-29-2011, 12:03 PM
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#16 | | Rs has made me the man i am today!
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Is your friend named diesel_test?
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01-29-2011, 12:41 PM
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#17 | | I STILL don't get it
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independent events. each flip of the coin is independent of the next. The result of one flip has no bearing on the next flip
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01-29-2011, 01:03 PM
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#18 | | Lomac owned my ass at least once
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slots are required by law to have a certain winning percentage, no?
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01-29-2011, 01:19 PM
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#19 | | My AFC gave me an ABS CEL code of LOL while at WOT!
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just tell your friend its elementary statistics
Ask them: "50% chance x 1 flip = ??" If they say anything other than 50%, smack them in the head and repeat the process. The probability of them giving you the right answer after a few smacks should be quite good. Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferra is there a specific/academic terms or theory that explain this idea?
Example:
If you are to toss a coin 20 times, and all first 10 toss comes out as head, the probability of you getting a tail on your last 10 toss is still going to be 50/50.
Just because you had heads on your previous toss will not make it more likely for you to get a tail on your next toss.
*I am actually trying to explain this idea to a friend who believes there is a higher probability of winning on a slot machine that haven't had much winning before.... |
Last edited by Kamui712; 01-29-2011 at 01:30 PM.
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01-29-2011, 01:47 PM
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#20 | | What hasn't Killed me, has made me more tolerant of RS!
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| Quote:
Originally Posted by fobulaus Mutual exclusivity has nothing to do with this.
Each toss is independent from each other, therefore the conditional probability of one more head given there has be X heads does not matter. i.e. the process is memoryless
edit: However, slot machines is a completely different story, because we don't know that the events are independent. It depends on how the payouts were programmed. I think it's better if you use roulette or baccarat as an example. | yeah, that's what i was getting at and i got my terms mixed up, damn macm course is useless!
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01-29-2011, 02:31 PM
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#21 | | I *heart* Revscene.net very Muchie
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ur friend noob gg
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01-29-2011, 03:25 PM
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#22 | | Captain Happy Bubble is my Homeboy
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| Quote:
Originally Posted by Hondaracer baccarat isnt really 50/50 because of commission..
slots are all pre-programmed so its not like flipping a coin, who knows what the programming is like inside | Actually there are new tables for baccarat which are the fastest growing tables in casinos, they are known as easy tables with no commission so it is 50/50 now on them
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01-29-2011, 04:43 PM
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#23 | | YOU CANT CUT BACK ON FUNDING! YOU WILL REGRET THIS
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the probability of flipping a coin:
P(heads) = 1/2
P(Tails) = 1/2
Sure the first few tosses might yield more heads than tails etc... but as time approaches inifnity the probabilities will also converge to 1/2
Things like flipping a coin is with replacement, so all flips are independent of each other.
For stuff like slot machines. I was told that the older, non digital ones had a weigh scale inside - the more weight that was on the scale (from coins, tokens etc...), the higher the probability of a win
With the new digital ones however, i doubt that is the case.
Casinos are out to get your money, and are known to have less than ideal winning probabilities (in the perspective of the player)
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01-29-2011, 07:42 PM
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#24 | | My dinner reheated before my turbo spooled
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__________________ Quote:
If we are not able to ask skeptical questions, to interrogate those who tell us that something is true; to be skeptical of those in authority, then we're up for grabs..
-Carl Sagan
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01-29-2011, 07:44 PM
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#25 | | My dinner reheated before my turbo spooled
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haha just bugging.
i think what you wanna reference is something called binomial probability distribution or something..
btw: that chicken scratch is the heisenberg uncertainty principle. 
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