According to condo kings theory, who is buying the paid off houses belonging to boomers allowing them to downsize and fund their kids' downpayments? Seems like a pretty big gap in the model he is proposing, addressing only the entry level market and those looking to cash out of the market.

Looking to move out within the next year or two and it is increasingly frustrating to see what people are willing to pay...
Apologies for the upcoming rant...

Checked out shoreline, the new development by polygon at Kent & Kerr in East Van. 2Bds start from 400 and run to about 550 (roughly $500/sqft), but strata fees are estimated to start at $0.38/sqft! That only covers heat, hot water, gas and the city water bill. Amenities will be restricted to a fitness room & a shared common lounge. The first phase was about 40% sold (most, if not all of the cheaper 2bds were taken) but I cannot imagine paying $360-400 a month in strata for those amenities. In comparison, the units at false creek that I've looked at were estimating strata fees at $0.35/sqft but that includes security, concierge and A/C in addition to covering heat, hot water and gas.

I've been following the alleged housing bubble and MOI/sales for the past year or so and my real estate outlook is quite bearish... but going out there and visiting some of the presale condos has me quite frustrated and confused.

that's because you're looking at presale/brand new - i'd never want brand new - buy a couple years old, get basically same benefits of new, but with all the kinks of a brand new building dealt with, and likely a slightly sweeter deal

or, if you don't like the cost - rent :) nothing wrong with renting, esp. a condo (i've posted a dozen times as to why i would never own a condo that i live in - and i can afford to buy my place handsomely... but i don't)

Any good resources for looking at older units listings?
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The question I ask everyone here (and myself quite often) is why don't we all just leave Vancouver? No jobs, no economic growth prospects, a bubble RE market, and snobbish attitudes to boot.

Vancouver doesn't recognize talent and pays 15-30% less for those who are talented.

Here's my opinion, and opinion only.

Rest of Canada:

Right now, I see 2 options. Alberta(oil patch for some, Calgary for others)and Toronto.

Calgary is fucking cold and Toronto is...an interesting place.

United States:

Well, choosing a place is overwhelming, but the problem is how to do it. You can get a job, and have them say they need you over an American. That will get you residency.

You can fuck your way to a citizenship, but you are screwed if you aren't the marrying type, or already have a SO.

World:

Good luck coming home.

So, we are stuck in Vancouver.

Agreed. For me, someone who wants to live in a moderate climate, and snowboard all winter, its my only option in Canada, other than Naniamo maybe. For my career, I really need to live in a big city. Essentially, some of us really just have to deal with it unless we are prepared to make certain sacrifices. At this point, I can't bring my self to make those sacrifices, so I make a poor financial decision to live here. Once my wife finishes her schooling, the states is an option, but being an LPN she is really only licensed to work as a nurse in canada. We aren't literally stuck, but we've stuck ourselves here with our decisions.

I'm definitely getting the hell out of here with my family once I'm done schooling. Never understood why my parents choose Vancouver of all places anyways. I don't think I will ever understand the appeal of living in Vancouver. :whistle:

I see a lot of people complaining about the prices of condos and housing in Vancouver's hotspots. Why haven't you guys considered Surrey and Delta? Prices are still reasonable there. Sure, it's a bit of a commute, but you can't have everything right? I know people who are happily living in Surrey and work in Vancouver and they certainly aren't pulling 6 figures.

It seems like you guys are creating a false dilemma by restricting yourselves to only looking at the heart of Vancouver.

You shouldn't be frustrated at what people are willing to pay. If the market falls out, you'll be glad you didn't buy in, and you have a chance to capitalize. If the market remains stable or even goes up, the pricing was out of what you were willing to pay, no shame in that. Don't rely too much on presale strata fee estimates, on an 650sf unit the difference is $20/mth with the figures you posted. If $20/mth is going to tip you one way or another, you need to evaluate how much sense buying really makes. Looking for a good deal on a newish pre-owned, or even renting are great options right now. Stick to your guns and let your head do the thinking.

I'm more frustrated not being able to get a read on what my home is worth when we make our move. It seems like sales in our area are largely right place right time, with some units sitting idle and still on the market after 4-5 months and a couple units selling within 4-6 weeks. And I feel they are quite reasonable priced as well too. More difficult dealing with/maximizing your existing asset, than deciding what asset to buy into IMO.

historically, prices lag behind sales about 9 months or so. Sales (number of transactions) have been 40% below 10 year averages, so many are starting to think prices will come down soon. If you can wait, wait.

False creek has been dropping their prices since last year. Richmond and westside have arleady seen a significant dent, just a matter of time before it comes around to other areas imo.

BTW - dont fully trust developers and the % sold that they claim, they only release certain number of units, and then when they sell out, they can advertise the "sold out" signs to create more demand that isnt really there, and then release more units.

BTW - for those that say Vancouver has a lack of land which is why RE and land will always go up.

google Vietnam Real estate bubble, or vietnam property bubble. Vietnam has shiet loads of people and barely any land.

The country had a crazy run up in RE prices due to speculation and cheap credit (sounds familiar to Canada doesn't it?), and RE prices started to come down.

Realtor or if you have a friend or acquittance in the building.

Generally you should be able to do some DD with your realtor's help.

People like the "West Coast" Lifestyle too much.

Grouse grind / The Chief
Seawall
Skiing / Snowboarding
Fishing
Dog parks
Girls in yoga pants.

Lists goes on....:pokerface:

Even detached houses in Surrey/Delta cost at least a half million. For an average upper middle class couple making a combined income of $150K year, that is still significant, particularly if you have to pay off student loans and have been unable to accumulate much in savings because you've been living away from home. You also have to factor in commuting costs over say 5-10 years. If you have to commute to Vancouver from Surrey, that costs you about 5 grand a year in insurance, gas, and maintenance.

Even if you could afford to buy a home for a half million, you're tied to a city with limited career mobility and a ceiling in terms of your income. No one would be too concerned if you could easily make 6-figure salaries after 10 years, but the problem in Vancouver is that most people top out at 6 figures.

Limited career mobility? Hundreds if not thousands, of people cross the Alex Fraser, Patullo Bridge everyday to head to their workplace in Vancouver. Is it that unreasonable to them? Even if you live by 152nd St and work in North Van, that's a 45 minute commute according to Google maps. Considering how people put up with Massey Tunnel, it doesn't seem as bad.

If you drive a 100km a day to work and back, that would only be around 7-8L in a Honda Civic making around 10 dollars for a daily work commute, not too bad considering people who take public transportation costs around 2000 a year (3 zone pass)

was in your position this time last year and decided to rent. was frustrated as well and there are many perks to renting that have already been mentioned. looking to move into another area as my neighbours above are starting to get noisy as hell with their newborn.

Sure, if you're commuting anytime past 10pm. In normal business/traffic hours, getting around from one end of Surrey to another is a close 30 (or more) minutes in itself.

Hell, before I moved out of Surrey, I had to budget an extra 30 minutes on my commute just to get on the Portman Bridge before the twinning. (i have no clue what it's like now)

I was referring to Metro Vancouver, not Surrey.

Commuting and consuming 2-3 hours of my life (plus added stress that far, every day) is worth the extra money (~1K more per month in rent) I spend to live 5 minutes from work downtown. I used to live in coquitlam, and that was bad enough. I'm so much more relaxed when I get home.

Waiting patiently for the bubble and growing a down payment in the meantime.

What if there is no bubble? :alone:

Delta is a great place to live. I grew up there and you can still buy lovely single-family homes for under well under $500k (not AT LEAST) not to mention 2 bedroom condos in the $200k range.

People always talk about commuting, but in reality, how many of you ACTUALLY work IN Vancouver let alone downtown Vancouver? I have never had a job in Vancouver (always been Surrey, Richmond, North Burnaby, and Maple Ridge).

Living in Delta for roughly 24 years, I never felt far away from things.

I said fuck it and went for it. Just handed over my deposit last thursday.

House prices around here have already dropped considerably. The sellers I'm buying the house from are losing almost 70k from when they bought in 2010. So the time is right for me.

Out of curiosity, do you know why they are willing to take a 70k to move?

I have to agree with others. I don't know what your budget is, but if it isn't around $300-450k you won't be getting a 2 bedroom in Vancouver/Burnaby thats brand new. Typical 1 bedrooms I've seen are around the $235k mark, for a brand new development. (And don't forget, this will be for maybe 600 sq.ft.)

You can't have your cake and eat it. Lots of compromises have to be made.