Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[MarkyMark]

Is a variable rate pretty risky at this point in time? At 2.45% compared to the 3.35%ish that fixed rates are at it's quite a difference in your monthly payments.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

Is a variable rate pretty risky at this point in time? At 2.45% compared to the 3.35%ish that fixed rates are at it's quite a difference in your monthly payments.

YOu just gotta ask yourself how much risks you can accept.

Say you're signing on for 5 yrs. How many rate hikes will it take before your 2.45% variable rate climb high enough to meet your 3.35% fixed rate?

In the past, it is somewhat common for the Central Bank to hike rates by 25 basis points each time. So it'll take 4 rate hikes before your variable rate mortage becomes more expensive than a fixed rate mortgage.

Next you factor in over how much time that rate hike is going to happen. If it takes 2.5 yrs for your variable rate mortage to reach 3.35%, and assuming the interest rate continues to climb at the same pace, you are still more or less breaking even compared to going with a 3.35% fixed rate to begin with.

The problem is, none of us have a crytal ball that can foresee the future.

[heleu]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

Is a variable rate pretty risky at this point in time? At 2.45% compared to the 3.35%ish that fixed rates are at it's quite a difference in your monthly payments.

If you're asking, you probably should stick with fixed. There's always risk involved with variable.

In the long-run, variable has always been cheaper, but if you are budgeting and can't afford for the interest to rise above a certain rate (say current BOC rate), you should stick with fixed.

[Ludepower]

Variable has historically been cheaper than fixed.
And I was told by my broker he can switch me to fix if rates start climbing.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by Ludepower

Variable has historically been cheaper than fixed.
And I was told by my broker he can switch me to fix if rates start climbing.

They can of course do that, but by the time you want to switch into a fixed rate mortgage, the rate (of the fixed rate plan you switch into) won't be the same rate you have been offered now.

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by twitchyzero

wonder why we keep enabling this type of greed
are there a substantial shortage of condos and th?
I suppose the vip are mostly investment activities

This developer was doing this in the slowwww times like 4-5 years ago, can only imagine it’s much worse now as they are building way more volume.

Thing is, how do you police it? Every unit has an individual value, if an interested party doesn’t sign during that first vip event obviously they will say that unit is sold and now X unit is this price

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

Is a variable rate pretty risky at this point in time? At 2.45% compared to the 3.35%ish that fixed rates are at it's quite a difference in your monthly payments.

Another advantage to variable mortgages is that if you break them early, you only pay 3 months of interest. If you anticipate selling your property within 2-3 years, it might make a lot of sense to go variable, despite rising interest rates.

[6thGear.]

This promotion is prime minus 1%. So as long as you stay variable you will always get a 1% discretion under market prime rate.

Originally Posted by Traum

They can of course do that, but by the time you want to switch into a fixed rate mortgage, the rate (of the fixed rate plan you switch into) won't be the same rate you have been offered now.

This. Once you switch to fix it will be whatever the market rate will be and you will lose the 1% discretion.

[Mr.HappySilp]

B.C. Residential Tenancy Act changes give more rights to tenants

The B.C. government on May 17 amended the Residential Tenancy Act to require landlords to give tenants four months’ notice to end a tenancy in order to demolish, renovate or repair the dwelling.

Previously, landlords could evict a tenant for those reasons by giving two months’ notice. Tenants will continue to be eligible for one month's worth of compensation in those cases.

Landlords, or new owners, now must compensate a tenant for 12 months’ rent, unless excused by an arbitrator in extenuating circumstances, if a landlord or purchaser ends a tenancy for landlord use and they don't:

•take steps to accomplish the stated purpose for ending the tenancy under section 49 within a reasonable period after the effective date of the notice; or

•use the rental unit for that stated purpose for at least six months, beginning within a reasonable period after the effective date of the notice.

Previously, when landlords acted in what the ministry calls "bad faith," tenants were entitled to one month's compensation.

An addition to the act gives the tenant the first right of refusal to enter into a new tenancy agreement at a rent determined by the landlord if the landlord ends their tenancy to renovate or repair the rental unit.

A landlord must compensate a tenant for 12 months’ rent, unless excused by an arbitrator in extenuating circumstances, if the tenant exercises a right of first refusal and the landlord does not give the tenant:

• a 45-day notice of availability; or

• a tenancy agreement to sign.

If a landlord is ending a tenancy on behalf of a purchaser, the notice must contain the purchaser’s name and address.

More changes are expected to be on the way.

Premier John Horgan in April appointed a rental housing task force that is headed by Vancouver-West End MLA Spencer Chandra Herbert and the expectation is that the task force will work through the summer and table a report in the fall.

So the gov wants to increase rental housing supply but at the same time give more rights to tenant. I mean why would I even consider renting my property or part of my property with these BS changes. It makes it super difficult to kick the bad tenants out and now I have to give them 4 month's notice and they have the right of refusal. I am sure this will get more people rent their units out.

Friend of mine just decided to sell her rental property because she currently have a bad tenant. Basically there are noise complaints, tenants not follow the recycle policys, got caught smoking inside the apartment etc etc and have been racking up fines. He just doesn't have a shit so friend have enough and since she can't kick him out (due to the new policy that was in place a few months back) she is just going to sell the place.

[JDMStyo]

Realtor/Real estate investor hat off for a bit and going to my finance days.

http://www.crsp.com/files/2018-Big-Picture-Chart.pdf
Andex chart is a great way to get some perspective. CRSP is what Harvard and Chicago finance buffs use to reference and hopefully predict rates.

Bond market and 10 (longterm) year yield curves drive short term interest rates by spreads.


Last 5 years has been amazing - driving up equity and real estate prices with ultra low 1.1-1.4% on the bond yield side. Nothing good lasts forever, as real 20 and 50 year rates globally is more like 5.7 and 7.2%, respectively.

Adding a 3%+ spread to this, imagine what 8% or even 10% mortgage rates (think 90's) will do to leveraged home prices here.

Long story short - anything below 3% fixed you're in for a great ride. Variable for the last 10 years though, has generally been amazing. It may not be for the next five.

[Infiniti]

New York parents sue 30-year-old son who refuses to move out - BBC News

Not directly related to Vancouver housing, but certainly relates to those of you who have posted in this thread on being a landlord/dealing with shitty tenants.

[originalhypa]

I thought this was funny and had to share.

[JDMStyo]

Summer times are a bit slower on markets with vacations and better weather, but presales still generally strong.

Vancouver West
OSLER 8888 - few hot $500's 1BR - Marine Drive & Cambie area. Not a bad investment IMO. Great rental returns, lowrise + AC concrete. Smaller Asian developer, TRIA. $1000/ft. Only 60 or so units, won't last about 1/2 allocated.
Nothing fancy but gym _ sky garden. About 15 minutes to Cambie skytrain, good school catchment to Van West schools.



Concord W1 Marine Drive & Cambie
Finishing end of 2018 should be a luxury $1300/ft building easily, personally and know a lot of realtors with units here, did well last 3 years. Though rumours had it Concord under review by CRA lately and NO assignments allowed. Got some China clients freaked out...

ONNI Garden
Huge 10-15 development on Cambie Corridor.
$1600/ft, $870K for 1BR + parking.
This is the Langara Gardens area, new Skytrain station being added on 59th + Cambie.
Cambie Gardens (ONNI)



Chinatown / Downtown E Vancouver
Sparrow Bit contested Keefer address, but they managed to get zoning through. Only 25 units, 9 parking spots. $590K to start 520ft studio. Not bad for rental, gentrification clearly coming in. Showing clients and got accosted by a few stragglers and literally shopping cart pushing senile people, LOL!
Pricing comes to about $1300/ft, not cheap.
Concrete 6 story - developer keeping top floors. NO AC though, thought that was stingy.

BRENTWOOD Burnaby
Gilmore Place
Tower 1 nearly all allocated not sold or written on yet. coming late June. Should be hot given SOLO sales pace.

Concord Brenwood
Tower 3 pretty much done, Tower 4 has some remaining. $700K 1BR, $40K parking (not included). $1200/ft, huge heated balcony on Tower 3 + 4. Pretty cool.

Bordeaux
Personally I like this one for Brentwood - JUNEAU & Willingdon, they build fast and did Dawson the street across. $1000/ft a bit nothing crazy amenities wise but pretty sure investors can get 20-30% in 2 years on this unit.

Surrey
AVANI Center
This one should go REALLY fast...
By the well known real estate Indian family Virani (downtown realty office), $299K starting price is appealing...until you see it's for 350ft. Yikes!
Hilton first 10 floors or so - should be a nice venue, King George hub is now basically $800-850/ft. Those who got in King George Hub last year should be laughing!
Avani Center Surrey


LINEA
Rize, a boutique Vancouver based developer is at King George with a beautifully shaped highrise. Supposed to be in $700/ft but if that's lower than AVANI I can't even imagine the demand. Also did Independence and Goldhouse recently, Rize is a hot developer who always do up interesting buildings. I'd get one.


Maverick
Tiansher small low 4 story lowrise building.
Sold out in a weekend. 120 units.
$299 1BR and $399K + 2Br

Fraser Landmark
110 units in total , 5 left or so.
$450K 2BR 850ft. Lowrise AC'd woodframe building.

Squamish
These ones did really well for our clients who bought in $300k 1BR.
Onni / BOSA will have projects coming up soon, rental and returns far out pace Vancouver, and you have the international money coming in for Whistler.
AMAJI
$550K get you nearly 900ft 5 story lowrise.
Website is sold out but developer kept some themselves. PM. Pricing likely going past $750/ft when majors come in later this year.

Tsawwassen
SEASIDE Mosaic
Interesting take near the Mills and near the waters, SEASIDE by MOSAIC is 2-3 bedroom townhomes in the $500ks by well known lowrise builder MOSAIC. 99 year lease land is a barrier for some clients.
Should do well with better infrastructure (read: Massey Tunnel).

___

Taking some time for family and outdoors - less updates but always PM or inquiries through website - as always our advice is FREE

[dapperfied]

Keep it coming, JDMStyo!

[Mr.HappySilp]

Thinking of selling my apartment and moving to Coquitlam to buy a bigger place.

Can't believe someone on the same floor 535sq ft 1bedroom sold for more than 610k.... Like wtf...... I could most likely sell mine for 590k then since is a bit smaller 505sq ft. Just feel 1bed is too small and parking is a nightmare. I mean is fine if I have a friend come to visit but if I have more, they are looking to park a few blocks away....... I rather pay 650k for a bigger place that's more quiet.

[CivicBlues]

^where you are you living right now?

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

^where you are you living right now?

On Nelson right across from Bonsor and Metrotown.

[CivicBlues]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

On Nelson right across from Bonsor and Metrotown.

Hope the place in Coq. you have in mind has as good transit connectivity as where you are right now.

I'm thinking the same constantly about my DT condo. But then moving anywhere significantly bigger would entail moving out of DT, no doubt.

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

Hope the place in Coq. you have in mind has as good transit connectivity as where you are right now.

I'm thinking the same constantly about my DT condo. But then moving anywhere significantly bigger would entail moving out of DT, no doubt.

Transit should be the same.. Take west coast express from Coq center to water front is about 40 to 45min. And honestly even Coq, They have Wal-mart, Costco, That Chinese super market so is decent. Food wise I don't go out much for food even then Coq have have enough place to try.

Right now I only go to Metro to so I can get to T&T, PriceSmart and Crystal mall. I hardly ever step mall in the food especially during weekends. Is too crowded and stuff in there in if you go after 12:30pm I am busy enough as it is with family and my gf. Rather move to a bigger place and be with my gf at this point.

Another reason to move to Coq is because gf have a house in westwood plateau that she rents part of it out and her parents live there. My parents live around Holdom Station so is easy enough for me to visit my parents, her parents and get to work without much hassle. I mean with 660k I could purchase a 2 bedroom apartment in a decent location so why not. At most I only need to pay an extra 100k out of my pocket.

[Traum]

Don't forget that WCE runs only during some very specific hours, whereas Skytrain basically runs from early morning til late at night everyday. Evergreen line is also nowhere nearly as extensive as Expo / Millenium lines, but for the places to goes through, it is decent.

[Liquid_o2]

Avani isn't technically a Hilton, it will be a Hampton Inn.

And I don't think the station will be built at 57th and Cambie for the Onni project. Unless there is recent news I did not hear about the station.

[Liquid_o2]

And as an aside... maybe someone can explain why people are willing to spend upwards of $1000 to $1200 / SF for a presale at Metrotown, Edmonds or New West... when they can purchase a re-sale (3 to 10 year old building) in a much better location of Vancouver at $800 to $1000?

Is it purely investment?

[melloman]

Originally Posted by Liquid_o2

And as an aside... maybe someone can explain why people are willing to spend upwards of $1000 to $1200 / SF for a presale at Metrotown, Edmonds or New West... when they can purchase a re-sale (3 to 10 year old building) in a much better location of Vancouver at $800 to $1000?

Is it purely investment?

No. It is purely that they want BRAND NEW.
I have friends that, unfortunately, that have this retarded mentality that they don't want to live in something old. They want brand new, with all the bells and whistles. Yet of course they only want to pay 50% market value.

[Hondaracer]

Dem bells and whistles aka contractor grade appliances and smaller square footage lol

[Gerbs]

For those who are looking at it from an investment point of view. What cap rates do people look towards in Vancouver? Doesn't seem too attractive unless you are getting massive capital gains