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Old 12-12-2014, 06:36 AM   #1
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Oil price is crashing!



I feel bad for Albertans. The whole province is dependent on oil profits. If this continues there's going to be mass layoffs in the oil sector.
This is also going to suck for the Canadian economy. Can already see it with the value of the Canadian loonie dropping substantially.
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Old 12-12-2014, 06:43 AM   #2
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yeah the saudis aren't cutting production

the US et al. realizes their sanctions on Russia aren't doing any damage so they're hitting them where it hurts
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Old 12-12-2014, 08:20 AM   #3
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Why feel bad for the Albertans? They don't have PST and they make tons of money... This was bound to happen sooner then later but the thing I'm more worried about is the government won't be making as much money from the fuel tax they rape us with so hopefully they don't try to raise our PST on top of the .5% they want to raise for the transit tax they have been speaking about.
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Old 12-12-2014, 09:09 AM   #4
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Lol don't know why you are feeling bad too. This is nothing new and commodities are cyclical in nature.
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Old 12-12-2014, 09:14 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by murd0c View Post
Why feel bad for the Albertans? They don't have PST and they make tons of money... This was bound to happen sooner then later but the thing I'm more worried about is the government won't be making as much money from the fuel tax they rape us with so hopefully they don't try to raise our PST on top of the .5% they want to raise for the transit tax they have been speaking about.
Your missing a big part of the point here.

If the price of oil crashes to a certain point (and it almost already has) its not feasible to operate the sands any longer. If they shut down the sands, this entire country will feel the pain. Not just Alberta, or the workers who were up there.

The oil sands currently employ 121,500 people DIRECTLY. Even more people are indirectly employed across the country. Whats going to happen when half of these jobs disappear before the 2015 construction season opens?

Those guys move back home unemployed, guess what, their going to take away work from local construction workforces all over the country.
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Old 12-12-2014, 09:21 AM   #6
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Your missing a big part of the point here.

If the price of oil crashes to a certain point (and it almost already has) its not feasible to operate the sands any longer. If they shut down the sands, this entire country will feel the pain. Not just Alberta, or the workers who were up there.

The oil sands currently employ 121,500 people DIRECTLY. Even more people are indirectly employed across the country. Whats going to happen when half of these jobs disappear before the 2015 construction season opens?

Those guys move back home unemployed, guess what, their going to take away work from local construction workforces all over the country.
Tradesmen are stupid hard to come by in Saskatchewan and Alberta it could be a blessing in disguise for those Provinces. The company I work for built a new Police Station in Saskatoon, we had to fly 95% of our labour in from other places and lodge them, needless to say that job didn't go to well for us. We've had the same issues in Calgary and Edmonton. I'm not saying it's all good as it tends to drive prices down but right now you can't hire anyone worth a salt in either of those provinces. The wages they are demanding are also pretty ridiculous, piece work rates are almost double what you'd get here and I'm not talking about working in little towns, in cities like Calgary.

Saying all that it's not great for places like the lower mainland as construction prices are already in the shitter, introducing more labour only drops them more. The other catch 22 is construction in Alberta and Sask is booming because of Oil and Gas.....LOL not sure where I stand on this.
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Old 12-12-2014, 09:26 AM   #7
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pretty sure Alberta will be alright for a while ... lol.
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I believe cars are meant to be driven. I see zero point in having a beautiful car and never driving it. Might as well have Miranda Kerr in your bed and sleeping on the ground cause you don't want to fudge her mascara...

We go through our entire lives being told what to do every step of the way. The garage was always the one place where you could indulge in your own passion, with not a care for the outside world.
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Old 12-12-2014, 09:34 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by meme405 View Post
Your missing a big part of the point here.

If the price of oil crashes to a certain point (and it almost already has) its not feasible to operate the sands any longer. If they shut down the sands, this entire country will feel the pain. Not just Alberta, or the workers who were up there.

The oil sands currently employ 121,500 people DIRECTLY. Even more people are indirectly employed across the country. Whats going to happen when half of these jobs disappear before the 2015 construction season opens?

Those guys move back home unemployed, guess what, their going to take away work from local construction workforces all over the country.
It's at a 5 year low and the oil sands were around back then and they will be around if the prices drop more... I work in the oil gas industry and not a single person is worried since the major oils make billions of billions of dollars of profit a year and will still keep on making profit because if they start losing the gas prices will rise again which happens all the time.
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Old 12-12-2014, 09:39 AM   #9
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I feel like the only one excited that gas prices are dropping
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I believe cars are meant to be driven. I see zero point in having a beautiful car and never driving it. Might as well have Miranda Kerr in your bed and sleeping on the ground cause you don't want to fudge her mascara...

We go through our entire lives being told what to do every step of the way. The garage was always the one place where you could indulge in your own passion, with not a care for the outside world.
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Old 12-12-2014, 09:40 AM   #10
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From an investor standpoint, you can make a tonne of money on the stock market by buying exchange traded funds (ETFs) that are pegged to the price of oil, or short sell oil stocks. People have been short selling oil stocks since the summer.

If the price of oil keeps going down, consider getting into the market quickly on ETFs.

e.g. Horizons Meta Pro Bear (Bear as in falling price of oil) (T.HOD). This ETF's returns are based on oil futures contracts.
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Old 12-12-2014, 10:09 AM   #11
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I feel like the only one excited that gas prices are dropping
people will buy gas regardless, if I was an investor, I'd be hesitant to drop the price
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Old 12-12-2014, 10:12 AM   #12
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people will buy gas regardless, if I was an investor, I'd be hesitant to drop the price
it's inevitable gas prices will drop, they were down to 87 cents/litre in Edmonton last week. That's highschool day prices
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I believe cars are meant to be driven. I see zero point in having a beautiful car and never driving it. Might as well have Miranda Kerr in your bed and sleeping on the ground cause you don't want to fudge her mascara...

We go through our entire lives being told what to do every step of the way. The garage was always the one place where you could indulge in your own passion, with not a care for the outside world.
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Old 12-12-2014, 10:13 AM   #13
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From an investor standpoint, you can make a tonne of money on the stock market by buying exchange traded funds (ETFs) that are pegged to the price of oil, or short sell oil stocks. People have been short selling oil stocks since the summer.

If the price of oil keeps going down, consider getting into the market quickly on ETFs.

e.g. Horizons Meta Pro Bear (Bear as in falling price of oil) (T.HOD). This ETF's returns are based on oil futures contracts.
Disclosure: No positions at time of writing?

Shorting is irresponsible and opens you to unlimited risk.
Generally, inverse ETFs and options are much better.
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Old 12-12-2014, 10:16 AM   #14
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people going crazy overanalyzing this and i'm just happy gas prices are cheap as fuck

it'll be back up soon enough. be happy with it while its still around.


Feel bad for Alberta?
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Old 12-12-2014, 10:19 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by murd0c View Post
It's at a 5 year low and the oil sands were around back then and they will be around if the prices drop more... I work in the oil gas industry and not a single person is worried since the major oils make billions of billions of dollars of profit a year and will still keep on making profit because if they start losing the gas prices will rise again which happens all the time.
No offense but the people who work in oil and gas who "aren't concrened" are just the ignorant grunts who peice pipe together.

That's how all my buddies who work in Alberta think "lol they make so much money they'll never stop"

No company, regardless of profit, can operate at a third of their overall income.

If a construction company that builds houses had a cut of 2/3 their income they would be bankrupt over night. Same for the vast majority of companies in all industries. The oil and gas sector is far from immune.

Massive companies like Suncor etc can obviously operate at a loss for a while but there comes a breaking point.

Apples and oranges I know, but my brother is an engineer with Taseko at their copper mine in williams lake, the surplus of processable materials they run at is only 1.5-2 days. If copper prices were to drop below a manageable level, they would shut down immediately and only retain a force for maintenance.

The ignorance in Alberta, especially people working in the industry is astounding. Obviously it attracts a certain crowd to begin with but when Somone who's worked in oil sands for multiple years can't tell you the basics of the industry, eventually it's in for major correction.
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Old 12-12-2014, 10:42 AM   #16
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Your missing a big part of the point here.

If the price of oil crashes to a certain point (and it almost already has) its not feasible to operate the sands any longer. If they shut down the sands, this entire country will feel the pain. Not just Alberta, or the workers who were up there.

The oil sands currently employ 121,500 people DIRECTLY. Even more people are indirectly employed across the country. Whats going to happen when half of these jobs disappear before the 2015 construction season opens?

Those guys move back home unemployed, guess what, their going to take away work from local construction workforces all over the country.
market forces will shift these workers to other industries that requires labour. I read an article that the forestry industry in BC and AB were heavily underutilized because all the workers were going to oil because they can make more money.

Plus what about all those mining companies that "needed" temp foreign workers? Well, now they can recruit the oil workers that have been laid off.

Yes it will hurt our economy, but people will adapt. Plus the low dollar means manufacturing and producers will have it easier - so provinces like ontario will gain.

Last thing, with gas prices this low, i know im saving $800 a year on gas. 40-45 cents a litre drop (from $1.50/1.55 to $1.10) will save the average person quite a bit of money.
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Old 12-12-2014, 10:50 AM   #17
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Plus those ignorant grunts are usually the ones up to their eyeballs in debt for a new F350 dual wheel turbodiesel and booze/drugs/girls etc.

Already I've been reading layoffs in Grande Prairie, Cold lake. I foresee a lot of repo's next year.
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Old 12-12-2014, 10:53 AM   #18
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It's at a 5 year low and the oil sands were around back then and they will be around if the prices drop more... I work in the oil gas industry and not a single person is worried since the major oils make billions of billions of dollars of profit a year and will still keep on making profit because if they start losing the gas prices will rise again which happens all the time.
It is all about feasibility. Major oils do not make billions on billions.. especially not oil sands. They aren't indestructible. There have been companies who invested millions of dollars into a project and then went bankrupt or shutdown do to commodity prices and the cost of operating.

I wouldn't be surprised if a company who invested billions (major oils) could shut down either. There have been many changes this year due the price of oil dropping (getting rid of benefits, lay-offs, etc) to save as much as they can to survive.

Last edited by Mining; 12-12-2014 at 11:19 AM.
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Old 12-12-2014, 11:00 AM   #19
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You guys are living in this dream world.

Any industry, I don't care if its banking, car sales, or even BC Hydro. If I slash the price a customer pays for the same service by 1/2, and everything else remains the same, that company is going to be royally FUCKED.

If you think that anyone operates at a 50%+ margin, you are completely out of touch with reality. If the price of oil continues to decline or doesn't go up, I know for a fact that there are countless construction and operations jobs which will be up in the air come the new year.

Like I said some of you are being pretty short sighted with your views on this. The price of gas coming down is one thing, and there are those industries which benefit from that.

But it comes at the price of trades peoples losing their jobs, or taking jobs away from others. What happens when that trades person who was making 300k a year now makes $15 an hour working as a labourer in town?

Not only is he taking away that job from that kid in town, but guess what he's probably no longer going to go buy that $85K truck, and drop $2k at the bar every night on his turnarounds.

Many of "you guys" (the royal you), have been reaping the benefits of the input of our money into the system for a long time.

Our money was your money, so when our money dries up, so does yours. The difference? You lived off that money, we just had fun with it.
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Old 12-12-2014, 11:22 AM   #20
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The economy is going to take a hit but right now...

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Old 12-12-2014, 11:27 AM   #21
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If an industry group struggles, the people with it wil be forced to move. E.g. Tech Bubble Burst of the early 2000. Tons of professionals in IT never got back. There were not enough jobs anymore and they switched industries.

As for this crude oil price dropping, I will be benefitting from this. Most of my clients are US based utility and telco corporations. They serve the massess in the US. Gas prices being lower is like a tax cut for the masses (not just the upper class). So the US economy will slowly improve if crude oil supply is high and gas prices are low. When my clients have money, this money trickles down to me.

Keep in mind, a lot of RS isn't in this industry group. We are also Doctors, Lawyers, Dentists, Engineers, Entrepreneurs , Small Business Owners, Corporate Directors/Managers or even Executives, or even just at the technical core level of the corporate ladder. Regardless, a lot of us do benefit from this because this is like a tax cut for us as well.

Edit:

I'm surprised no one posted a thread about this much earlier (e.g. when crude hit $80).
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Old 12-12-2014, 11:32 AM   #22
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From an investor standpoint, you can make a tonne of money on the stock market by buying exchange traded funds (ETFs) that are pegged to the price of oil, or short sell oil stocks. People have been short selling oil stocks since the summer.

If the price of oil keeps going down, consider getting into the market quickly on ETFs.

e.g. Horizons Meta Pro Bear (Bear as in falling price of oil) (T.HOD). This ETF's returns are based on oil futures contracts.
Options young fella. Get some Put strategies in place.
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Old 12-12-2014, 11:52 AM   #23
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dollar is shit, oil prices are tanking. fuck... i might get laid off in 2015.
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Old 12-12-2014, 12:02 PM   #24
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If things start to get tight in the sands it might force some of these companies to stop wasting so much fucking money on dumb shit, although I doubt it. I've still got piles of work and I haven't heard of much being cancelled or postponed beyond the norm so from where I'm sitting it doesn't look like a lot of the big producers in the sands are terribly concerned.
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Old 12-12-2014, 12:08 PM   #25
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Perfect! Air care is expiring and gas prices are low again!


STRAIGHT PIPE ALL THE CARS AND USE BEST GAS
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