Bitcoins anyone?

[r4square]

ASIC scrypt miners are available for preorder. Group buys have delivery after Chinese New Year. Big changes ahead for LTC miners this year.

[Nssan]

Originally Posted by r4square

ASIC scrypt miners are available for preorder. Group buys have delivery after Chinese New Year. Big changes ahead for LTC miners this year.

Are you talking about Gridseed products?

[Fafine]

Anyone selling bitcoin or litecoins?
Posted via RS Mobile

[SkinnyPupp]

MtGox is finally dying, which is causing a huge drop in price. If you wanted to get in on BTC, now (or soon) is the time. You got another chance!

[Nssan]

hear ya , i am not selling right now, just hold for volatility to clam down a bit

[G]

Noob her: Can anyone explain whats happening to MtGox? Was looking at Virtex and they had BTC buyers putting prices of 700 and MtGox had BTC selling at 500~ USD... Arbitrage opportunity?



Edit: Nvm, read up a little more, turns out you can't take the BTC out of your wallet from MtGox right now. Talk about volatile...

[shawnly1000]

Silk Road 2 Hacked, 88,000 Bitcoin Allegedly Stolen | TechCrunch

[Ulic Qel-Droma]

I'll just leave this here... again

Originally Posted by Ulic Qel-Droma

i'll just leave this here.

market psychology



see a familiar pattern?

when the masses "adopt", it's usually a bad sign.

of course i could be wrong. if the pattern breaks then i'm wrong. but it's following pretty closely so far.

disclaimer: patterns don't follow 100%, give it some flex room. bitcoins are more volatile so expect the patterns to be more exaggerated.

technicals my friends.

technicals tells you the future as it happens.

fundamentals tells you the past after it happens.

[SkinnyPupp]

Originally Posted by Ulic Qel-Droma

I'll just leave this here... again





technicals my friends.

technicals tells you the future as it happens.

fundamentals tells you the past after it happens.

Ulic I appreciate you contributing your knowledge in investment, but what you are showing off here is pure fluke.

The reason for the current drop is an acute reaction to a pretty big issue many exchanges are having, and a flood of 70K bitcoin or so stolen from silk road 2 onto the market

Basically, there is a known issue in the way bitcoin works, in that unconfirmed transactions can be use to 'trick' certain wallets into thinking they are new transactions. This isn't an issue for most wallets, unless the programmers are (wrongly) using unconfirmed transactions without any extra checking. This is called transaction malleability (or something like that)

So Mt Gox, the trainwreck I have been warning everyone about since the beginning, of course uses shitty code, and was being exploited by people using this method. They shut down withdrawals completely, and the market reacted. A few other wallet apps and exchanges had to do the same thing, and the market reacted again.

Sorry but if it wasn't for this issue, your charts wouldn't match up at all. It would still be humming along at around $750-800. Nothing about this price drop corresponds to what you are saying at all. Enjoy your "thanks" from the usual bitcoin haters though

[Razor Ramon HG]

Going to the ATM tmrw, this will be the lowest we will see in a while.
Posted via RS Mobile

[subordinate]

Originally Posted by Razor Ramon HG

Going to the ATM tmrw, this will be the lowest we will see in a while.
Posted via RS Mobile

Nvm.... no one knows, could go down lower.

[SkinnyPupp]

Yup I think I'll sell my GPUs now that LTC mining is a bit beyond their capabilities, and just buy BTC with the income

[SkinnyPupp]

Originally Posted by subordinate

Whats with the differing prices? Mtgox shows 401, but Bitcoinity is showing 598.

GOX is low because you can't actually withdraw funds.. So you can buy it cheap but it is stuck there in the exchange

[Razor Ramon HG]

Originally Posted by subordinate

Nvm.... no one knows, could go down lower.

That's a risk you take whenever you do any trading.
Posted via RS Mobile

[Ulic Qel-Droma]

Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp

Ulic I appreciate you contributing your knowledge in investment, but what you are showing off here is pure fluke.

The reason for the current drop is an acute reaction to a pretty big issue many exchanges are having, and a flood of 70K bitcoin or so stolen from silk road 2 onto the market

Basically, there is a known issue in the way bitcoin works, in that unconfirmed transactions can be use to 'trick' certain wallets into thinking they are new transactions. This isn't an issue for most wallets, unless the programmers are (wrongly) using unconfirmed transactions without any extra checking. This is called transaction malleability (or something like that)

So Mt Gox, the trainwreck I have been warning everyone about since the beginning, of course uses shitty code, and was being exploited by people using this method. They shut down withdrawals completely, and the market reacted. A few other wallet apps and exchanges had to do the same thing, and the market reacted again.

Sorry but if it wasn't for this issue, your charts wouldn't match up at all. It would still be humming along at around $750-800. Nothing about this price drop corresponds to what you are saying at all. Enjoy your "thanks" from the usual bitcoin haters though

it's no fluke dude.

ask any technical trader.

when the charts match up, and then all that it's waiting for is a fundamental reason for it to force the pattern through.

I can pull up any chart whether it be grains, financials, or metals or whatever.

you can trade on patterns, and you can zoom in to the day which the pattern is established, and when the pattern follows through, u can bet on that day, some news came out to enforce the pattern and force the pattern through.

solid examples are charts of grains starting to rise and follow rising patterns, FAR before the news of droughts come out. and then when the news comes out that there is a drought scare, the pattern follows through.

u can think of the charts and patterns as human behaviour, and then when they follow through, it's the behaviour being enhanced by news that favours the direction of the charts and also favours the people that follow patterns. in some ways it's a self fulfilling prophecy.

but in no way is it a fluke.

or on the flip side you can say everything is a fluke, because the market only goes up down or sideways. i mean 1/3 chances aint bad. so if i flip a 3 sided die and it tells me to buy... u can buy anywhere and if it goes up, you can say it's a fluke, you can say it's because of some fundamental news, or u can say it's a chart pattern.

but charts don't lie. they tell u live news in the visual form. it doesn't matter WHAT the news is, you can just see the direction and strength, which is all that matters.

for example if you were trading based on the pattern i posted up, you woulda shorted the day i originally posted this, and if the pattern breaks, and it kept going up, you would get out immediately as soon as the pattern doesn't match. but it kept matching, day in and day out, for weeks. and it still is matching.

technical, fundamental, or fluke.... all that matters is it works consistently more so than not... the reasons behind it don't matter (and not knowable, because of the chaotic nature of human behaviour and information)... the only reason that matters is if you make money.


another thing to think about, see those 2 small red days before this big drop? you don't think those two days all the people that had insider news on exhanges going to shits sold their btc??? thats why they were red days. BUT YOU don't know that news till its out. but those people did. when they sold, they move the market down.

as a technical trader, i see the market go down, i don't know why, and i dont care why. i just know its going down and there's probably news that i don't know about. but if i believe the charts, then i KNOW someone KNOWS something and is pushing it down. where as you won't know or believe till news hits mainstream, which is way after and when the market has already tanked.

all the insiders and secondary and third "insiders" know before you know. they're the ones that are moving the markets first. you cant possibly get that news unless you are an insider too.. but most of us if not all of us, are NOT insiders, so the charts are the only thing we have. and yeah... self fulfilling prophecy. if enough people believe what they see, and sell into it, it will go down. thats all that charts are man.

it's never a "fluke". the charts told you before the news told you. the charts are a form of news. just the details aren't there, only the strength and the direction.




because bitcoin's volume is low and most of the traders are newbs, patterns and news are usually very accurate in moving the markets.

but if you look at a more complex market like forex, or some other internationally traded instrument, with exponentially more unknowable chaotic factors... you would know that news usually makes the markets move opposite. like why would if a country misses its GDP projection on the down side, why would the market spike up?
why does the market spike down whenever apple announces their new shit? because of insiders. they have already bought in, or sold out, of whatever news is coming out and a lot of the pricing is ALREADY factored into the market. but its chaotic you see, just because most of is factored in doesn't mean 100% it will move the opposite way. what if tons of newbs decide to buy in or sell out cuz they're scared? what if a billion dollar saudi prince that has no idea what he's doing throws in a couple hundred mill for fun?

in some ways yes, you're right, it's a fluke, because it's all chaotic. so all you have are patterns that have repeated and all you're doing is risk managing based on the best info you have... and charts is one of the best if not the best... because it accounts for all chaotic factors LIVE as you look at it. where as the news you base your knowledge on is just a small spec of ALL the news affecting the market (and only looking back too).... hindsight is 20/20. it always looks logical and all the news always makes sense when u look backwards.

but we aren't playing the backwards game... we're playing the forwards game.

[SkinnyPupp]

I think on the other page I showed a chart of gold that matched it up.. you could also put a chart of the weather trends over the last 5 years, or a chart of the readership of rage comics, or any shit you want.

The two "red days" aren't due to insiders, it was just the initial reaction to transaction maelability. The second big drop was someone emptying silk road 2's account, and CLAIMING it was due to this issue (it's almost impossible to do it this way btw so there is definitely going to be more news coming in)

All your charts show is that prices go up, then they go down, then they go up again. Etc. Big deal

[Ulic Qel-Droma]

Originally Posted by Razor Ramon HG

Going to the ATM tmrw, this will be the lowest we will see in a while.
Posted via RS Mobile

don't try to catch a falling knife man. why don't you wait till a green day to confirm a slow down in the fall?

with CURRENT info, i would predict it to go down to 245-265 before it consolidates, and decides what to do next.

[Ulic Qel-Droma]

Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp

I think on the other page I showed a chart of gold that matched it up.. you could also put a chart of the weather trends over the last 5 years, or a chart of the readership of rage comics, or any shit you want.

The two "red days" aren't due to insiders, it was just the initial reaction to transaction maelability. The second big drop was someone emptying silk road 2's account, and CLAIMING it was due to this issue (it's almost impossible to do it this way btw so there is definitely going to be more news coming in)

All your charts show is that prices go up, then they go down, then they go up again. Etc. Big deal

yeah and like i said, charts are fractal, you can find patterns within patterns within patterns. ..

yes you can pull up rage comics or gold or anything. and if the pattern matches, it has a LIKELIHOOD of following through the pattern... you just have to believe the pattern is telling you news which you don't have.... and follow it.

it's all risk management dude.... as soon as you realise you misperceived the pattern, and you were wrong, you fucking cut your losses short and get the fuck out.

risk management is all it is dude.

yes, all the charts go up and down and up and down cuz they're cyclical in some way and follow patterns...

if you were trading real instruments and hundreds of thousands of dollars or millions of dollars were on the line or u had investors or CEOs barking down your neck... you would know the ups and downs are very important.

you cant hold through downs if you have to meet targets and predict markets precisely.

especially if you're leveraged/trading on a margin account.

if you just close your eyes and let it slide, you'll lose the shirt off your back, literally.

the charts tell you where to get in and where to get out man. it's important.

not to knock on your mentality, because everyone, even the pros go through that phase. when you stare at these charts day in and day out for years, trading, you realise fundamentals are just a small part of the whole picture.

and when you meet traders that have successfully consistently made millions upon millions just following chart patterns... i duno how one could still call it a fluke.

and like you said, those red days something happened, but you DONT know that happened till AFTER it happened.

anyway, someone that followed that pattern would have made a lot of money vs someone that didn't... that's all that matters. whoever makes money is "right".


i've worked at the biggest firm in asia trading and also one of the few firms in vancouver for the past 6 years. i've learnt a lot and all my preconceptions of the markets have been knocked to the ground.

at first i was like there's no fucking way all there is to it is looking at some fucking lines on a screen. what about economics? what about getting your CFA? what about knowing math and how to calculate or project those crazy numbers i hear on the news all the time?

but really, that's pretty much all there is to it.

99% of people that invest money into any market lose money overall. i've walked through warehouses full of client files over the past 30 years, all of them dead accounts.

there's one consistent thing about the losers, they don't listen and believe what the market is telling them. they believe they know something other people don't. or theyre so certain that some fact they know is GOING to move the market in their favor.

when you realise it's all chaotic, and that the only real thing u have going for you is the reoccurring patterns that happen in chaotic instruments... then all that's left is risk management.

the markets is a random moving entity... that's the video game.
money is your life.

all you're doing is managing that money when you enter.

think of it like diablo hardcore mode. you got your life and 1 chance. if you hit 0 you're dead. when you encounter monsters... you see familiar patterns from your encounters in the past, and you match those patterns up with whether or not you were successful.
if you encounter some pattern where you were not successful, you probably won't be again. so you avoid that fight. you don't engage (trade).
when you see a pattern of familiarity, and you were highly successful before, you fucking go all in. but at the first sign where you realise you're wrong, you fucking pull out and take your small losses.

that's all it is man. patterns.

i know it seems like hocuspocus. but you gotta realise, most people think there's some magic formula or logic behind the markets... there isn't. it's chaotic.

it's like playing poker. playing on probabilities from patterns you see. when you don't like what you see, you fold, you take the small loss and wait till when the pattern is in your favor. cuz you can never predict what will happen next, but you can guestimate your odds based on historical experience/patterns.

the poker example was better than diablo. LOL.

[SkinnyPupp]

I was going to bring it up in the thread where folks were fascinated with fractals... People love to talk about how everyhing in the universe has this predetermined pattern... It's an interesting topic, and I remember talking about the exact same thing when I did LSD.

But to me it just seems like if you look at LITERALLY ANYTHING on a macro enough level, there is going to be a pattern. Does that "mean" anything? I don't think so...

[Ulic Qel-Droma]

lol it does mean something...

it's not predetermined, it's chaotic... but chaotic patterns... have.. well, patterns within themselves.

if you look at it from a macro perspective and see a pattern then you can have a better chance of guessing what it's gonna do next!!!!

that's all that it is man!!!

as long as there's a pattern, you can predict better than if there were no pattern.

and like i said, if enough people believe the pattern and act on it, then it's a self fulfilling prophecy.

a simple example is, human pattern of behaviour. if someone in a crowded area shouts fire, or bomb. you can graph it out or pattern it out... and there's a high chance that the pattern is the same almost every time.

so the NEXT time someone shouts fire, you'll likely be right in betting "most people are gonna run".

same goes for anything. whether it be combat amidst a battlefield. the market. physics. or "fractals" (although all the things i mentioned are fractals themselves).

the meaning is self fulfilled.

The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind: Gustave Le Bon: 9780486419565: Amazon.com: Books

that's a book you should read.

when you look at charts, all it is doing is charting out human behaviour. humans behave in very obvious patterns. it's only obvious when you take yourself out of the equation and remove ego and emotion.

the meaning behind fractals may be "unknown" or not knowable.
but the prediction behind the next wave of pattern WITHIN the pattern is knowable.

meaning and reasons, do not matter... at least in predicting the markets.


a good example are those IQ tests where you look at shapes. you're just looking for patterns your brain is able to pick up and trying to predict the next pattern by eliminating the others that don't follow the perceived pattern.

there's another example where scientists did a study. they got a buncha successful technical traders, to analyze some charts. all these traders analyzed the charts with their own methods. and they all had different things to say. most of the made money.
now here's the funny part, the charts were generated completely randomly. they weren't real. they were "random". if they were random, how were all these technical traders able to analyze something that is just BS?
it's because they are not analysing the MEANING behind the chaotic charts. they were just looking for patterns which have repeated and managing risk based on known patterns of behaviour.

[SkinnyPupp]

Originally Posted by Ulic Qel-Droma

don't try to catch a falling knife man. why don't you wait till a green day to confirm a slow down in the fall?

with CURRENT info, i would predict it to go down to 245-265 before it consolidates, and decides what to do next.

BTW you said the exact same thing last time there was a dip, but it didn't go under $650 and went back to $800 until now

[Gerbs]

Lets talk about doge coins.

[Hondaracer]

So the next time it cracks $1000 that chart is irrelevant?
Posted via RS Mobile

[Ulic Qel-Droma]

Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp

BTW you said the exact same thing last time there was a dip, but it didn't go under $650 and went back to $800 until now

it went below 500 dude... and then it went back up to 1000, and now it has a new low of 302 or whatever.

you think if someone bought at the 500 low, they woulda really sold at 1000?

or do u think they're still holding on... buying more cuz "it cant go lower" or "it's low, its a good time to buy".

you have to factor in human elements.

like for yourself... have u sold?

has anyone on this thread sold high? and bought back lower?

someone highly disciplined woulda bought after the knife down, on the first green bar, and sold at the first red, doubling their money. but how many people actually followed through with that?

and others like you, have the same mentality, they will not believe the charts, they think all these falls are just "opportunities to buy" at a "good price" cuz its "lower".

but their mindset is completely biased to one direction. everything they see is "good to buy"

if its low it's "good to buy cuz its low price"

if its high it's "good to hold cuz it's gonna go higher"

when is it ever a good time to sell then?

greed of hoping there could be more takes over. and you don't sell.
when it keeps tanking, fear, of it tanking more takes over, and you sell when you shouldnt.

if you talk to most people that have invested and gave up, it's because they do exactly what i just mentioned above. they think it's all gambling and bullshit. because they didnt have good risk management.

whereas someone that just followed the pattern and bought and sold where they shoulda according to the charts (NOT according to how they feel), woulda made money.

http://www.amazon.ca/Market-Wizards-...market+wizards

here's another book.

they interview the top traders of our times. interestingly enough they ALL have very different strategies and different things to say about the same topic. but yet they all make money. why?
they all have ONE thing in common... very very very good risk management.

i can probably say the best poker players also have the same attributes.

sure i said don't catch a falling knife, but me not buying on those falls, means i had 0 chance of losing money. where as people who bought... if they made money (if they even sold when it was profitable), most probably lost money and are still in a loss.

so who's right?

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

So the next time it cracks $1000 that chart is irrelevant?
Posted via RS Mobile

you cannot look at charts rigidly. if u see a matching pattern, it probably is a matching pattern. if you stare at it too long and try to force yourself to see something, it's probably not there.

if the charts over the next 2-3 weeks suddenly spike up and go through 1000, then the pattern ended early. and yes, the pattern would be over. and you would look for a different pattern.

the pattern i posted is a typical long term "bubble/hype" market pattern. whenever a chart is reaching an over extended point in its life and needs a huge correction (downfall), that pattern USUALLY appears.
the biggest thing to look for is an exponential rise, and a super high made, then a secondary high that's not as high. that's the "main" pattern.

remember patterns don't definitively begin anywhere and end anywhere. you have to just try to match patterns you see in the time frame you're comfortable looking/trading at.

i would say over the next few days there is a high chance that the market will return to 450-550, before continuing down to ~260. that is if the pattern continues.

[subordinate]

In all seriousness, Ulic is 100%, there are Chart traders who make a daily living playing charts. Getting in and out, staying long/short. It's not 100%, like anything in life, but it does work out more often than not for these traders. Or investing in general.