too much bad news today,
canada loses jobs
greece
plan B

I saw this post on Yahoo message board yesterday. That my friend is called the wall of worry. Bull market loves to climb the wall of worry. The market almost doubled from where it was in March 2009 - one of the greatest stock market rally ever, yet most people out there are pessimistic and bearish. Occupy Wall Street is the biggest contrarian indicator out there. Trade the tape not the noise.

time to short groupon? too soon? lol

the way i see it, groupon is a service that requires companies to give at least 50% off their goods/services.
if that model is not profitable for those companies, no amount of money is going to make them more successful.
they have to change their business model in order to be profitable with different types of businesses.
i think salons and that sort of thing do pretty well with the 50% off coupons because people are likely to routinely return to these places if they like them.
restaurants..... not so much. most people like to eat different food regularly even if they know a good place.

google already does.

Meh...I would've taken Google's 6Bn offer if I was Groupon..

Started to build a position on these today:
TAP - 3+% div, boom or bust people will still drink beer
WM - 4% div, north america based, people still have trash if we're in a recession no?

Staying flexible and holding 50% cash. If the market crashes I'll just average down.

not if they can't buy things to trash

greece wins
Posted via RS Mobile

WM is mostly for commercial trash. good dividend though.
Microsoft is another good choice.


I think the best recession proof choice is Mcdonalds.

and by that, we all win!

lets get shit done, europe!

I bought FAZ again on Friday near the close, knowing that the situation in Greece is no where close to being resolved. Although the Greek PM won his confidence vote, he did so only because he promised the opposition that he would resign. Now, however, he is considering forming a coalition government, not with the main opposition but with the other minority parties. The main opposition wants snap elections, ignoring the consequences of the bailout not being implemented. Meanwhile, there is rioting in the streets of Athens. Italian bond yields are soaring past 6.4%, meaning that they are about to have huge problems too, making Greece's problems look like a rounding error. Then we have the overall EU officially entering a recession this quarter. Japan is already in a recession. The Thai floods are not helping anyone. China's growth is gradually slowing. The US has 15 trillion in debt, and are no where near bipartisan agreement for a new debt deal in time for November 23. The unemployment rate is still low, as it has been for quite some time. The US banks are facing a huge backlash, not to mention falling earnings. The European banks are facing large write offs from Greek bonds. Overall, there is not a sign of hope in any part of the world. Like the ECRI, I am sticking with my recession call, and hope that the markets plunge in the coming months, if not weeks.

I'm hoping FAZ isn't your main holding that is based on your view that markets plunge in the coming months, if not weeks. It is not an instrument meant to be hold longer than 2-3 days. There's inherent decay as well as if there are two 150+ green days, you'd be down like 15-20%. JMHO

if market corrects.. which it should based on fundamentals.. it will do so in time even if all euro issues are corrected.. which is impossible

unless the china man or sand niggas buy up and support the euro bailout fund/bond issue, then would the skies would be clear...

they are trying to save crisis by paying off debt with more debt

only the US had the power and scope cuz they can print money like mad, the US treasuries are still good, and they have a no limit ATM in the FED Reserve

a few of the financials will come out of this OK, but this isnt the bottom yet, good time to avg down with small buys over the next 18 months

the greek thing is to avoid a flash crash scenario

italy and others will be really painful if shit happens..

but hey look at the bright side... the young ones can buy their portfolios cheap when that happens and quadruple their money in 15 years in their RRSPs

^ agreed,
Greece government bickering again, Italy facing government problems
somethings going to fail soon......

bulls vs. bears - some ppl will think the world will implode, others think governments can & will do enough to ease the pain.

we'll probably end up somewhere in the middle... while there are many headwinds, there are also many positives around that one can find, but just know its not like everything's going to blow up and we'll all die - we survived the original lehman's brothers incident, hopefully we can prevent a 2nd one and continue to survive.

lehman was the blowup.. if there wasnt the TARP or rescue, the avg joe schmoe couldn't even buy a car or get a credit card

us small businesses woulda gone under and mid companies woulda not be able to pay bills or payroll since their revolving credit would freeze

greece was too iceland
portugual is too bear stearns
italy will be lehman

Of course I'm not holding FAZ longer than 2 days. FAZ is more like an online casino than it is investing. Everyone who plays with leveraged ETFs knows that, otherwise they wouldn't be called leveraged ETFs.

1:34pm: Turning attention away from Berlusconi temporarily and back to Greece - I'm afraid we must report that the talks on the formation of a coalition government have hit a snag -- the favourite candidate to replace George Papandreou isn't even in Greece.

Helena Smith, our Athens correspondent, tells me that Lucas Papademos, the front-runner for the job and former vice president of the European Central Bank, is now racing back to his homeland. This threatens to delay the vital process of choosing the new leader.

Helena reports that:

The 64-year-old Papademos was in the US when he was informed of the ground-breaking political developments in Greece and is now making his way back to Athens poste-haste.

Formally the governor of the Bank of Greece for almost eight years, from October 1994 to May 2004, Papademos is widely regarded as a "neutral figure," who is well respected in Europe and would be a safe pair of hands at the helm of government. But friends who know him well have told our correspondent that Papademos, who is also a well-respected academic, is unlikely to agree to the job without carefully weighing things up first.

"As things stand, the leaders of both political parties want to give him his cabinet, tell him what to do and let him go by the end of January. It's a recipe for disaster," said Stefanos Manos a former conservative finance minister.

"Lucas is a thoughtful person, an honest guy, a clever person but he's also very cautious ... he's going to want to lay down his terms and as they stand I very much doubt that he will accept. I don't think for a moment he is willing to be a puppet PM."

The confusion may well mean that nothing is decided before this evening, when markets in Europe have already closed and Wall Street could be getting edgy.

So in short -- Greece is far from getting a government that will guarantee political stability.


1.05pm: What a dramatic few hours in the European debt crisis. Here's a round-up of the key events so far:

• Silvio Berlusconi has denied planning to resign today. The embattled Italian PM insisted that he remains in charge -- apparently after talks with his children
• Italy's borrowing costs have spiked alarmingly, suggesting that the country could soon be dragged deeper into Europe's financial crisis. The yield on 10-year Italians debt hit 6.66% this morning - devilishly bad news for Berlusconi?
• Greece remains in political limbo, as talks continue over the creation of a unity government. George Papandreou, and his old rival and US college friend Antonis Samaras, are locked in negotiations
• France promises more austerity. Another €7bn of tax rises and spending cuts announced today

Play of the week?

Darn, sold Goldcorp too early...up to 55 now

back into Cisco today. earnings release on wednesday, wondering if i should sell right before or wait for results. analysts might be a little too optimistic that they'll have good earnings.

Sitting mostly in cash. Waiting for the next buying opportunity. There will still be plenty of volatitily as Greece and Italy play out.

YMI, in @ 1.75
ALXA @ 1.33

should rock hard in december

Bottom indicator

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business...t-in-15-years/

^ thats what everyone said about Bank Of America when he bought it and it went down to $5.30