i still favor a recession

US did bailouts and now Euro

bailouts are to save the financial mkts, not the economy
FED and central bankers still control which way the working families are headed
US govt is fucked because they cant spend their way into accelerating the economy

after the US and Timmy/Gentle Ben did all their money printing/bailouts, the US went into a dip

does it all mean a big dip in the DOW and indexes? probably not since elections are coming up and if Republicans are seemingly favored this time...


well you know the rest

keep your eyes on POP.V and GSR.V on the TSE......

They are about to announce some good news.

Technically, US govt can spend their way or print their money as much as they want. The Fed has all the power to do so. It's like the big drop in USD back in Aug because of the debt ceiling / downgrade of US debt. Then when the European crisis hit, everyone ran back to the USD. US is like your deadbeat dad. You hate him for being poor but he's still the leader of the family. IMO USD is currently irreplaceable. No asset in the world can take the place of USD. As much as ppl want to argue RMB (not a internationally traded curreny), gold (not enough to be significant in using as foreign reserves(, CAD, AUD, YEN, etc. The Euro was going to be the next big thing but look what happened.

Back to the question.
I don't predict recession but a very slow growth in the US instead. Stock market - probably same type of volatility and trading we had this year. Fund are going to be underweight in stocks and we will see them buying back into them and we'll see a bull run. Then any negative economic news created by politicians will kill that bull run.

Commodities - I don't see any pull back of any commodities prices. Demand is still there plus supply is still constraint. Maybe 4444 can add since he's in CAT.

China - This is my unsure prediction. China either continues to chug along or a soft landing. I think there will be a soft landing. I think China's is going to have new leadership next year? This means old management retires rich and happy. New management is in and time to make money. They are going to place their bets and stimulate their economy.

My personal opinion (no research to back this up) is that markets are just jittery over the Euro debt deal. Once they finally hammer out the details, the markets will recover partially. I don't think there will be another recession either, but we'll see!

I disagree. Being based in London, I have been to most of the affected eurozone countries in the past 6-12 months. We are definitely heading into a recession. Unemployment is not only stubbornly high, it has remained high for a persistent period. Both Europe and the US are now the largest debtor entities not just in the world, but in the history of the world. Most companies are not retreating from Europe and guarding against another slowdown. According to the ECRI, which stands out as being the only research institute that has predicted the last two recessions (2000, 2008) without a single case of crying wolf, has just issued a recession forecast warning to their clients at the end of Sept. Interestingly, both times in the past that the ECRI has issued a recession warning, the S&P rose for nearly a month before crashing below 800-900. The ECRI warning was around 30 Sept, we just saw a dead cat bounce rally in October, and from now until 2012 2Q we'll probably see the S&P decline. Having been following the eurozone problems over the past 4-5 years, as well as those in the US, I have no doubt that we're entering into (or are already in) a recession. For those who got excited about the 2.5% GDP growth that was just reported, well, the quarter before the 2008 recession there was a similar spike in GDP. We all know what happened next.....

^^ thank you
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ECRI Leading Index: Yes, It's Still Falling - MarketBeat - WSJ



ECRI Leading Index: Yes, It’s Still Falling
By Mark Gongloff


ECRI
ECRI weekly leading index rolling growth rate. Click for big image.
You wouldn’t know it from the rally in risk assets today — even copper is jumping — but there are still reasons to worry about future economic growth.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly leading index continues to fall, for one thing. This week its rolling growth rate fell to -10.1%, the lowest level since July 2010. Here’s a look at its longer history.

You’ll recall that no recession started following the decline in this index last year — at least no recession that shows up in GDP numbers yet, although we came awfully close — but the ECRI has gone ahead and declared that a recession is inevitable this time.

The ECRI cites other, longer-leading indicators it keeps cloistered away and only reveals to paying clients. That has raised some to wonder whether the ECRI might be wrong about its call this time.

John Markman, writing yesterday at MarketWatch, said he was inclined to go ahead and believe the ECRI on this one, rather than the stock market, which is clearly not anxious about a recession at all any more:

My expectation is that ECRI will be proven right again, and that the stock rally we’re seeing now is a gift — and entirely in line with [ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan's] forecast — ahead of a renewed collapse.

Consider that the last two times Achuthan leveraged his cycle research to make an out-of-consensus recession call were March 2001 and March 2008. After the first, the S&P 500 rose 14% to its 10-month average in May before falling 32% over the next 16 months. After the second, the S&P 500 rose 9.8% to its 10-month average in May before collapsing by 42% over the next nine months.

The reason for the lag is that ECRI’s calls come early. That’s why they are called “forecasts” rather than “observations.” If the past two examples provide any guidance, the current rally has a shot at rising to the 1,230 to 1,280 level of the S&P 500 before turning tail.

Debt crisis: live - Telegraph

Greek PM calls for referendum on the EU bailout. It looks like the majority of Greece does not want to be bailed out. I think the markets will go down further tomorrow, because this is vote is happening at a crucial time of the G20 meeting and because it effectively makes the EU debt deal worthless.

Good info, thanks dohcvtec
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eh. conspirarcy mkts


enuff said

bear mkt rally suckas
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BBC News - Greece debt crisis: referendum promised on EU deal

It's not looking good. If Greece is allowed to vote on the bailout, most analysts believe they will choose not to implement the 50% haircut and the rest of the bailout plans. That's after months of negotiations. This vote is in effect a vote on whether Greece wants to remain a part of the EU. Merkel and Sarkozy must be livid right now, thinking they have saved the world from the impending doom of a sovereign default.

fuck. wouldnt u default if u owe 150% of what u make every year for te next 10 years plus?
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lime56: Did you get in FAZ on the dip? It's my first time buying levered ETFs and I got in yesterday, so far so good. I didn't buy too much, only 400 shares. Do you flip between FAZ and FAS?

Fast cars and loose fiscal morals: there are more Porsches in Greece than taxpayers declaring 50,000 euro incomes – Telegraph Blogs

Fast cars and loose fiscal morals: there are more Porsches in Greece than taxpayers declaring 50,000 euro incomes
By Ian Cowie Your Money Last updated: October 31st, 2011
115 Comments Comment on this article

The Porsche Cayenne: more common in Greece than people who admit earning €50,000
Jubilation about the German deal to save the euro could prove short-lived if fresh news of Greek tax evasion gains wider currency. There are more Porsche Cayennes registered in Greece than taxpayers declaring an income of 50,000 euros (£43,800) or more, according to research by Professor Herakles Polemarchakis, former head of the Greek prime minister’s economic department.
While German car workers may take pride in this evidence of their export success, German taxpayers may be less keen to bail out a nation whose population appears to take such a cavalier approach to paying its fiscal dues. Never mind all that macroeconomic talk about deficit distress, many Greeks are still plainly riding high on the hog.
Something can’t be right when the modest city of Larisa, capital of the agricultural region of Thessaly with 250,000 inhabitants, has more Porsches per head of the population than New York or London.
Perhaps the penny – or the euro – is already dropping, because Professor Polemarchakis writes that Larissa “is the talk of the town in Stuttgart, the cradle of the German automobile industry, and, particularly, in the Porsche headquarters there”, since it “tops the list, world-wide, for the per-capita ownership of Porsche Cayennes”.
“The proliferation of Cayennes is a curiosity, given that farming is not a flourishing sector in Greece, where agricultural output generates a mere 3.2pc of Gross National Product (GNP) in 2009 – down from 6.65pc in 2000 – and transfers and subsidies from the European Commission provide roughly half of the nation’s agricultural income.
“A couple of years ago, there were more Cayennes circulating in Greece than individuals who declared and paid taxes on an annual income of more than 50,000 euros.”
Hard to believe? Don’t take my word for it. The report in Athens News will add to fears, expressed by leading economist George Soros and others, that last week’s deal to save the euro can only buy a little time – not a permanent solution. China may also question why it should support economies that pay their unemployed more than most of its workers earn.
Binding such widely differing cultures as Greece and Germany together was always going to be a problem; not least because of diverging attitudes to such financial fundamentals as work and tax. Now, ahead of this week’s G20 Summit in Cannes, some euro-enthusiast must be sent to the cradle of culture to explain that deficits will balloon unless all taxpayers pay their fiscal dues. I nominate Vince Cable.

Bought FAZ on Friday at 37.00 and sold this morning up 6%. Looks like I should have held them longer.

Personally, I don't filp back to FAS because I have long positions in place for the next bull market.

no. i shorted aapl at 830am today. hope it holds
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All the asian futures are pointing down. The US markets turned down sharply in the last hour or so of trading, probably as a result of the news coming out of Greece that the debt deal might collapse. Fed meeting is tomorrow, not sure what to make of it. The perverse thing about the recently release GDP figures, which were fairly good, is that Bernake might be less inclined to do QE3. We'll just have to see. I haven't sold my FAZ yet, bought at $36.4, but I might sell first thing tomorrow if there's a gap up.

should go buy a jan put on the spy. breaks 1100 i say
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on another note. this mf global bk is the real story short term

some traders stuck and will be woodshed this week for them
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if greece decides to veto this bail out and attempts to leave the Eurozone, they can basically kiss their economy good bye

who will provide them liquidity in the future? with the euro nations in support, they will be able to get future lending, go on your own after a history of f'ing up majorly and huge revenue generation problems (at the bank level), they're f'd

don't f this one up greece, please - take your pill today, right your wrongs, and we can all go on happy

short esz1 @ 1276 & 1264, locked in profit, ill just close my eyes and let it run its course.

their economy is good bye... it has left the building!!!!

its like a mini US

cant wait for shit to blow up stateside:pokerface:


actually on the vote .... say it happened here in Canada

govt job cut backs.... lose out on bondholder (ie pension funds)
if i was a citizen and not informed about the macro economics, why would i vote in favour of meeting all these financial/austerity measuers


remember the TARP bailout? close vote by the congress or whatever

if US people voted for that.. im sure it would be a 95% oppose initially..
man wouldnt that fuck it up...

Greece.... you're fucked either way...

i have no idea how to read what you just said :)

but, a default is needed, i'm just concerned that without the backing of the Eurozone, Greece won't ever recover. It needs to start over, with Eurozone support, it'll be tough, without, it'll be near impossible

most likely, politicaly posturing is teh cause for this BS - i hate politics & all politicians!

short rant. lol sorry for bad post

just saying that bailout doesnt do shit

but they (the whole euro) needs it for now

leaving the citizens to vote for it is 95% epic fail waiting to happen


would u vote for a bailout needed for vancouver cuz the govt spent to much in BC place and the green initiative (robertson bullshit)???
their own citizens will fuck themselves over and vote no

best case is greece get out. italy and spain is supported. and let the mkts feed the financial world the medicine it deserves
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Think i might load up on some FAZ tomorrow morning