Looking at what rates are now makes me depressed that I locked in two years ago at 5.29%... but I guess on the same token var would have been 7-8%..

Anyone used Pine for their mortgage? They're partnering with Wealthsimple and they are offering 4.19% for 5 year fixed and 4.25% for variable. You get a rebate as well of up to $5k if you use Wealthsimple too.

4.25% for variable is the lowest I've seen though it's still not low enough for me to choose it but if there's another 75bps of cuts then let's play ball.

4.25% var is so cheap

Why is 4.25 var not low enough? Considering the downward trajectory of the rates and we don't see fixed rates being much lower, seems like a win if you can get var @ 4.25.

Yea, 4.25% var means 3.25% if not lower by the end of the year, depending on how well pp can bring home the bring homes and how much axeing he acts on the taxes. that's back to pre corona rates.

4.25% variable I would've taken, I was offered -0.8 on 5.45%, was crap

I'm not sure rates will drop that much more this year - the estimates are anywhere from 25bps to 125bps so that's a 3-4% range for end of year. I like to see a diff of at least 50bps, if not 75bps between variable and fixed before I go with variable. That buffer leaves room for any increases that happen during the 5 years (this did not work out at ALL for me last time though).

If I felt confident that we'd see another 75bps in rate cuts then variable is a winner for me - that's not clear right now though and it even seems like it's on the higher end of where the cuts might land.

That's a fair assessment. I thinking purely on the financial side of things where my projections have a 4.25% var landing at 3.75% at the end of the year. I don't see it dropping much more than that though. Your posting of the link to Steve Saretsky resonates with me.

I'm on the same boat as you where I don't foresee the rates dropping more than 50bps in the next two years. If a 4.25% var was offered I would take it as I am being offered a 4.2% 3yr fixed. The gamble of it dropping 50bps next year is a no brainer though imo.

With Trump coming in it's thrown a wrench into things. On one hand he's going to drive inflation in the US which means they won't drop rates much more and we can't diverge too far from them.
At the same time we aren't doing too hot which would mean rate cuts.

It would have been easier if it was Harris as they continue with the status quo and likely project a 75bps cut this year.

My gap was almost 0.60bps, so why risk waiting for a 0.60gap + pay a premium until it comes

Fixed rates are going up

My window to renew doesn't open till April (I have to renew by end of Oct) so unless I get lucky like EvoFire (and I don't use a broker) I'm only window shopping till April and even then I'm stuck with TD till Oct.

I've already maxed out my lump sum for the year so now I'm doing the math to figure out how much more of a lump sum to do (and when to sell my investments) when I renew - if TD gives me a good rate in Apr I may want to start selling off now so I have the money in hand. Or I can just jack my monthly up (to a max of $18k) and ride it out till October.

PMing you

oh shit it's 4.3-4.5% now

Going to make variable interesting if fixed goes up a bit more.

The scheduled dates for the interest rate announcements for 2025 are as follows:

Wednesday, January 29
Wednesday, March 12
Wednesday, April 16
Wednesday, June 4
Wednesday, July 30
Wednesday, September 17
Wednesday, October 29
Wednesday, December 10

I've got 6 announcements left to see where things land. I expect no change for the announcement this month but maybe we'll see one in March.

My guess is they're going to slow the rate cuts this year.

If the orange goblin down south starts a trade war, you would figure inflation to spike again causing rates to spike

Source: some guy on RS :drunk:

We're doing so shit that we don't even have to anticipate for another 2 weeks.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rate...ct-2025-01-16/

We're close, mines up July 22nd so 5 announcements. I'm a fixed guy myself so if we can get into the 3's I'll be happy.

^ I don't think we're gonna get into the 3s on fixed

low 4s will still be good, imma stuck at 4.7% till 2027 Oct~~

Why would you ever liquidate investments to pay out a mortgage? The worst rate in the world these days is still sub 5%, and if you arent getting 5% in your investment portfolio, then...?

-Mark

1. I'm buying peace of mind now.
2. My portfolio had a very good year and I'm taking some of the gains off the table to get the mortgage down to a "don't have to care about it anymore" level.
3. I'm figuring the market will not be anywhere as hot this year (and may possibly correct) and I have enough in the market anyways.
4. I'm not sure when I'll be working again (I may take the whole year off) so reducing my fixed costs is worthwhile.

You do raise a fair point - I'm not sure yet how much peace of mind I want to buy (or how much risk minimisation I want). I don't have to decide right now though.

Is this what it feels like when girls menstrual cycle line up cuz I'm due for renewal end of year too.

for the topic of pull investments (or invest said money) vs pay down mortgage.

Let's assume we're in the highest tax bracket or close to. Let's assume it's not in a TFSA but a regular taxed account.

If I have $20K to invest and I'm getting 10% return, I'm going to lose %50? of the to the tax man? so let's say it comes to approx 5% gains?

Assume mortgage is in the 4.5% range, it would be slightly less gain putting that money direct on the mortgage?

Please correct my numbers and logic if I'm missing something

What’s a “taxed account”? I guess accounts not in TFSA or RRSP?

You’re not getting taxed until you realize your gains or withdraw RRSP ?

Year over year for the last handful of years both my personally managed investments and my professionally managed ones have been 12-16% returns. Pales in comparison to the top mortgage rate I was paying which I think was 5.6?

Since December 12th we’ve been sitting at 4.29 now. Even if the market takes a shit I’ll be coming out well ahead at this point. My wife has always been one to want to pay down the mortgage but when we renewed on variable I convinced her to keep pumping more and more into investments VS make lump sum payments on the mortgage and luckily it’s paid off very well