Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Carl Johnson]

Originally Posted by FARMER

^

I don't think QE is ending anytime soon (actually, I think it's impossible. The US has far gone past the Minsky Moment. The Fed is the single largest buyer of Treasury's and with the Fed running $1+ trillion deficits/year [and that's not counting the $16+ trillion on-balance-sheet debt and $70-100 trillion in unfunded liabilities] there is no way for the Fed to end QE. Bernanke et al. have been bluffing that they "may taper" ever since they started QE).

Anyways, I think in time even with the continuation (and expansion) of massive money printing ie. "Quantitate Easing", interest rates will rise because the US budget deficit will continue to grow, total funded and unfunded liabilities will grow and investors will start to move out of US debt. The largest foreign buyers (ie. China) have already begun to diversify their portfolios (into gold, Euro bonds, etc.).

And as for the US "recovering," record numbers of people on food stamps (est. 50 million) doesn't sound like much of a recovery to me.

4 years of bull market in stock since March 2009 tells me it is a economic recovery. People have been talking down the U.S economy forever and you know what they lost so much money either by shorting or missed the huge rally. I don't give a damn about people crying on 60 minutes about losing their houses. I am sorry if that sounds cold but stock market and U.S. housing market tell me it is a full blown recovery. Bernanke is doing the right thing by ending QE so we don't end up with run-away inflation.

[4444]

Originally Posted by FARMER

^

I don't think QE is ending anytime soon (actually, I think it's impossible. The US has far gone past the Minsky Moment. The Fed is the single largest buyer of Treasury's and with the Fed running $1+ trillion deficits/year [and that's not counting the $16+ trillion on-balance-sheet debt and $70-100 trillion in unfunded liabilities] there is no way for the Fed to end QE. Bernanke et al. have been bluffing that they "may taper" ever since they started QE).

Anyways, I think in time even with the continuation (and expansion) of massive money printing ie. "Quantitate Easing", interest rates will rise because the US budget deficit will continue to grow, total funded and unfunded liabilities will grow and investors will start to move out of US debt. The largest foreign buyers (ie. China) have already begun to diversify their portfolios (into gold, Euro bonds, etc.).

And as for the US "recovering," record numbers of people on food stamps (est. 50 million) doesn't sound like much of a recovery to me.

Can't disagree more on the end of qe and the recovery, the first point is just a difference of opinion, so we can agree to disagree, as for the latter, yes more ppl today than before are on food stamps, that is true, so what? Corporations are more efficient than ever, and with offshoring of more and more jobs, uneducated people will continue to struggle - that sucks for them, I'm sorry for them, how this effects us all is that Obama is making America weak through more socialism, hence more ppl on food stamps - it's messed up, and really sad - the American dream is dying because of greedy large corps and lazy peons who can suckle off the teat of the government

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by 4444

the American dream is dying because of greedy large corps and lazy peons who can suckle off the teat of the government

This.

1. Corporations lobbying congress, engage in monopolistic behaviours and preventing competition and fcking over the citizens by off shoring jobs and taxes just to reduce costs and increase profits.

2. People being lazy/entitled sucking up government tax dollars.

and also add, government being inefficient wasting tax dollars.

[LiquidTurbo]

Vancouver Sun: Forget the gloom and doom — Vancouver’s house prices won’t tank

http://tinyurl.com/m6m5xfq

[westopher]

Funny, I started looking in a specific building 4 months ago. There were 2 units @314k and 324k. Now there are 8 units for sale, the lowest being 259k. All are between 620-650 square feet. All have large balconies. 3 of them have in suite laundry, one of those being the cheapest offered, and they all have been renovated to a similar 3/4 assed quality. Thats not a tank to me, but thats a pretty serious sign of aggressive seller competition. You want to see what the market is doing? Close the propaganda magazines and start looking at places.

[4444]

Originally Posted by LiquidTurbo

Vancouver Sun: Forget the gloom and doom — Vancouver’s house prices won’t tank

Don Cayo: Forget the gloom and doom ? Vancouver?s house prices won?t tank

haha, thanks vancouver sun for that insightful one sided story, nay, opinion piece from someone who likely has a vested interest in stopping ppl think prices are going down.

as rates rise - prices will come down, it will be slow, drawn out, and boring - publish that vancouver sun, you arse faces!

[iEatClams]

5 year mortgage is now 3.49%. this is a 50 basis points increase from the 2.99 we have been seeing for some time now.

I really think this will lead to further slowdowns as people wont be able to qualify for higher amounts, plus will also lead to monthly payment increases.

I talked to some notaries and they have said that their RE related business has slowed down. Less property transactions means less business for lawyers that focus on RE.

Also less property transfer tax for the government as well. You can see why there is a vested interest for many groups to make sure housing doesn't tank.

[Great68]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

5 year mortgage is now 3.49%. this is a 50 basis points increase from the 2.99 we have been seeing for some time now.

I really think this will lead to further slowdowns as people wont be able to qualify for higher amounts, plus will also lead to monthly payment increases.

I just got 2.79 for 5...

[4444]

Originally Posted by Great68

I just got 2.79 for 5...

That's not the point, very shortly u won't be able to

Credit unions still offer 100% loans with cash back at low rates, but it's all changing.

Also, depending on when u applied, u were probably one if the last few to get in at that rate

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by Great68

I just got 2.79 for 5...

did you get a 120 day rate lock? was this a mtg renewal? was this at the big 5 or like a lender like TrueNorth. how long ago was this?

Otherwise I would call BS to that claim.

my friend got 2.79 but that was way over a month ago and he did a rate hold for 120 days.
My broker friend says that mortgage rates basically went from 2.99% - to 3.49% in a matter of weeks. And the banks are hinting that it's going to go up even from there.

and this is confirmed with whats happening with 5 yr bond rates:

Canada 5-Year | Canada 5-Year Bond Yield

click on the monthly chart and see how it went from a low of 1.17 to 1.87 in a matter of a couple months.

[Great68]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

did you get a 120 day rate lock? was this a mtg renewal? was this at the big 5 or like a lender like TrueNorth. how long ago was this?

Otherwise I would call BS to that claim.

May 24

RBC

Call BS all you want I get my keys Thursday.

[Carl Johnson]

my dad got the same rate. banker at RBC told us we have until September to buy a house. I told my dad let's just wait and see what happens in the next few months as we rather buy a cheaper house than the low interest rate.

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by Great68

May 24

RBC

Call BS all you want I get my keys Thursday.

You got your keys thursday, but you probably applied when? may 24 was a month ago, so your broker was able to that rate because rates were lower at that time, and bond rates didnt go up as much. I'm sorry if I sound like I'm trying to discredit you or anything like that, that's not my intention.

What I'm saying is if you were to go to that same guy and ask him, what's the rate he can give you now if you were to apply today for a mortgage and the rate would be north of 3%, probably 3.29% is the best he could have given you. Most of the rate increases happened within the last two weeks.

[Great68]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

You got your keys thursday, but you probably applied when? may 24 was a month ago, so your broker was able to that rate because rates were lower at that time, and bond rates didnt go up as much.

What I'm saying is if you were to go to that same guy and ask him, what's the rate he can give you now if you were to apply today for a mortgage and the rate would be north of 3%, probably 3.29% is the best he could have given you. Most of the rate increases happened within the last two weeks.

I see what you're saying. Yeah it was about a month ago, subject completion that same week. I was offered a higher rate at first, but when I mentioned another bank matched they immediately offered the better rate, no hesitation.
I guess I was just spot on with my timing.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Great68

May 24

RBC

Call BS all you want I get my keys Thursday.

Exactly, this is exactly what everyone else got in may, if u were applying for a mortgage it would be 3.29% plus, therefore everyone who is going to start looking now can all of a sudden afford a lot less...
The beginning of the end

[quasi]

I was locked in at around 6% on my first place for 5 years so 3.29 seems like a screaming to me.

I actually paid the penalty about 6 months back to get out of my last mortgage, switched banks and locked in at 2.99 I think which at the time was a good deal.

[dinosaur]

boo....i don't renew until Sept 2014. currently i am at 3.74%.

[quasi]

Originally Posted by dinosaur

boo....i don't renew until Sept 2014. currently i am at 3.74%.

You might want to call and find out what your penalty is today. Try and find the best rate you can get and do a cost analysis. It might be worth it in the long run, especially if you believe rates will continue to rise.

I actually saved money over the next 5 years paying my penalty. For me it was more a matter of my bank I had been with forever trying to screw me because I had my mortgage split it two, half was locked and half was open. The open portion came due and they were offering me a worse rate then I could get anywhere else and would not negotiate with me. I paid the penalty, moved my mortgage, all my banking, my wife's banking, all our RRSPs, sons RESPS everything.

I told them exactly what was going to happen if they didn't match, I even provided them a spreadsheet showing the math and how I was going to save over the next 5 years paying a penalty and leaving rather then accepting there best* rate. Totally worth them sticking to there guns and losing a 20+ year customer and all current/future investments from not just me but my wife and my kids....well played haha.

[Gumby]

Originally Posted by quasi

I told them exactly what was going to happen if they didn't match, I even provided them a spreadsheet showing the math and how I was going to save over the next 5 years paying a penalty and leaving rather then accepting there best* rate. Totally worth them sticking to there guns and losing a 20+ year customer and all current/future investments from not just me but my wife and my kids....well played haha.

Well done!

If they're gonna be that stupid about it, then your old bank deserves it.

[quasi]

Originally Posted by Gumby

Well done!

If they're gonna be that stupid about it, then your old bank deserves it.

I can be pretty blunt, I think this is what threw the lady I as dealing with off. When I went into our meeting I knew what other banks were offering and basically said this is what you're going to give me. She said she can't do that, I came right out and said you can but you don't want to because you know a portion of my mortgage is locked and you think I'm stuck here. She got her back up and got all pissy with me, I got pissy with her and away we went.

I came back one more time and provided all the information about why it's in there interest to match, I even brought in the email that showed the rate I was getting from there major competitor along with my spreadsheet showing the penalty, how much it would cost me to over the next 5 years to stay, how much it would cost to move all broken down month by month. I thought there was no way they couldn't match, I was wrong.

I don't know if they didn't believe me or didn't care but that was the last straw next day started moving everything. It was a bit of a pain in the ass, took a while to get everything moved but I don't regret leaving at all.

I had banked there since I was 15 years old, I'll never go back there, not ever. A month after leaving they called and asked if there was anything they could do to get our business back...........

[Traum]

^^ Love it when people play hard ball with the banks.

[GLOW]

Originally Posted by quasi

I thought there was no way they couldn't match, I was wrong.

a coworker's friend in the banking industry said they don't care b/c over half their mortgage business are people just walking in through the front door, you leave, np, someone else will walk through the door ready to deal with them for a mortgage so they don't bother negotiating.

Originally Posted by quasi

I had banked there since I was 15 years old, I'll never go back there, not ever. A month after leaving they called and asked if there was anything they could do to get our business back...........

did you tell them "yes, but it would require a time machine"

[will068]

Originally Posted by quasi

I can be pretty blunt, I think this is what threw the lady I as dealing with off. When I went into our meeting I knew what other banks were offering and basically said this is what you're going to give me. She said she can't do that, I came right out and said you can but you don't want to because you know a portion of my mortgage is locked and you think I'm stuck here. She got her back up and got all pissy with me, I got pissy with her and away we went.

I came back one more time and provided all the information about why it's in there interest to match, I even brought in the email that showed the rate I was getting from there major competitor along with my spreadsheet showing the penalty, how much it would cost me to over the next 5 years to stay, how much it would cost to move all broken down month by month. I thought there was no way they couldn't match, I was wrong.

I don't know if they didn't believe me or didn't care but that was the last straw next day started moving everything. It was a bit of a pain in the ass, took a while to get everything moved but I don't regret leaving at all.

I had banked there since I was 15 years old, I'll never go back there, not ever. A month after leaving they called and asked if there was anything they could do to get our business back...........

Which bank is this ? Escalate to management. That's the corporate way.

[will068]

Originally Posted by Traum

^^ Love it when people play hard ball with the banks.

it's not even hardball. It's simple negotiation. You present the facts, you request for the bank to at least match it.

The associate dealing with quasi is too sensitive. If I was her manager, I would fire her for losing customers.

[Gridlock]

I had a guy call from my bank when I was having problems with my business account. He was, I think, expecting a quick little call about whats happening and such.

I asked him, do you want an honest answer?

"yes sir"

"Well in that case, let me sum up my experience with the Bank of Montreal right now. My opinion of BMO is so low, you'd have to work very hard to just disappoint me. Did you have any other questions?"

Haven't had a call since