Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[twitchyzero]

Originally Posted by mikemhg

if you posed that concept back in the 80's, that idea would be completely laughable. Heck, that concept would be laughable in the 2000's.

It's frankly shocking how much has changed in this city in such a short span of time

huh the 80s was 40 years ago

anything east of oak st was probably considered a dump back then

quite literally..just up the hill from river district was the city dump

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Traum

Just so we get the facts straight -- dynamically, the regular 911 is a downgrade from the regular Cayman.

If my wife feels she's "won" by downgrading me from a Carrera S to a GTS 4.0 I'll be ok with that.

[underscore]

^ always start negotiations higher than what you actually want.

Originally Posted by roastpuff

Depends on strata, but mine (400/mo for apartment) includes:

- Gas (stove)
- Heating/Cooling (in-suite radiator fan/heat pump unit thing)
- Water (hot/cold)
- Snow removal
- Trash/recycling
- Cleaning of common areas
- Concierge service (24 hours)
- Party room
- Gym
- Garden/rooftop area

I assume maintenance on all that stuff + the exterior is included in that too? ie roof, windows, landscaping, etc?

[roastpuff]

Originally Posted by underscore

^ always start negotiations higher than what you actually want.



I assume maintenance on all that stuff + the exterior is included in that too? ie roof, windows, landscaping, etc?

Whoops, yes, all that is included as well. Glass cleaning, fire equipment servicing, yard work etc.

[underscore]

Considering what house maintenance costs that seems pretty reasonable. A roof is $10k, windows and doors are $10k, furnace and AC is $8k, those all last about 30 years. Hot water is $2k every 10 years. Gas $720/yr, water $1,400/yr, lawn treatments $200/yr, the closest gym is $640/yr/person.

Just that stuff for 2 people is $400/mo and I have to clean my own windows, shovel my own snow, do my own yardwork, etc. If I pay someone for that too I'd probably be at $500/mo and I don't even get a concierge.

[Hondaracer]

Thing is, you’re not really obligated to do any of that though in a detached

[LancerBoy]

It's all a matter of perspective.

The combined total of monthly strata fees, property tax, and utilities tax for a condo/apt is around $5k-6k, which is the same amount in property tax for a house. What I'm saying is you never really "save" that money; it will never be yours to keep and it just goes elsewhere.

The way I see it, paying strata is basically paying for someone to mow your lawn, shovel your snow, and maintain everything. It's great for someone who doesnt want to DIY. If the condo/apt has a big courtyard or near a park, you dont need a backyard. If you dont do major car repairs, you dont need a garage.

I dont need a 5 bedroom house with 2 dining rooms/2 living rooms. It's a waste when only one of each is used daily and the other is for when friends come over 3 times a year and be fancy. The bigger the house, the more furniture you have to buy to fill the rooms, the more shit you accumulate, and the more cleaning you have to do.

It's all a matter of perspective. If people in asia (not just hk but japan) or Europe (london, france, germany) can live in a condo/apt comfortably, I dont see why people are in a rat race right now in van buying a 1.8 million+ home like it's a hot deal. Just because you can qualify for a 2 mill mortgage doesnt mean you should. It's going to take forever to pay it off probably not before your retirement. The mortgage interest on that is close to 1 mill depending on how big your downpayment is and rates. Whereas if you can find a 2bed/2 bath condo/apt with enough space to your satisfaction, you can pay it all off in 20 yrs if you are discipline enough.

It's stupid going 20-30% over asking in bidding wars when we know house prices are at the peak right now unlike buying in the 80s/90s; this means it is no longer an investment and it can only come down. Also, mortgage rates will definitely go up within the next 30yrs, guaranteed. Then good luck increasing the rent on all your shared tenants because city of van doesnt like rent increases, while trying to balance the books.

[twitchyzero]

Originally Posted by LancerBoy

It's all a matter of perspective. If people in asia (not just hk but japan) or Europe (london, france, germany) can live in a condo/apt comfortably

totally

but if we're just gonna be the next asia/europe it better come with the cheap cost of living, superior infrastructure, track days for 35 euros etc.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by LancerBoy

It's stupid going 20-30% over asking in bidding wars when we know house prices are at the peak right now unlike buying in the 80s/90s; this means it is no longer an investment and it can only come down. Also, mortgage rates will definitely go up within the next 30yrs, guaranteed. Then good luck increasing the rent on all your shared tenants because city of van doesnt like rent increases, while trying to balance the books.

I agree with everything you said except for the bolded part. If the last 20 years of Vancouver real estate has taught us anything, it is that this market is insane and unlike anything else in the rest of Canada. Also, given the global COVID debts and how governments around the world have fallen in love with printing money to get themselves out of trouble, I'd say inflation is a real and serious risk that could further artificially inflate that RE transaction price.

I'm not saying price will stay elevated forever. But in the immediate future, it isn't going to happen, and nobody knows when it is going to happen.

[Teriyaki]

There's been calls that we're at the "Peak" every year, and yet the market has defied it year after year. Just like, we're long overdue for a big quake, but it hasn't come. In an odd way, they could both happen at the same time now I realize. Actually a very scary thought.

[Alpine]

Originally Posted by Traum

I agree with everything you said except for the bolded part. If the last 20 years of Vancouver real estate has taught us anything, it is that this market is insane and unlike anything else in the rest of Canada. Also, given the global COVID debts and how governments around the world have fallen in love with printing money to get themselves out of trouble, I'd say inflation is a real and serious risk that could further artificially inflate that RE transaction price.

I'm not saying price will stay elevated forever. But in the immediate future, it isn't going to happen, and nobody knows when it is going to happen.

Hold onto your hats as we are looking at 2016 again, but concentrated on "affordable" properties. Unless rates dramatically increase or the government introduces measures to slow down the acceleration in prices, I expect detached to be up another 15% this year. TH & condos will follow. The detached market has already been on a 1.5 year long bull run, but condos are just getting started (they are 4 months into a bull run).

[twitchyzero]

govt did not hesitate to put in new policies almost overnight for the few years before pandemic

once vaccine and restrictions are out of the spotlight, my guess is they'll refocus on housing if the double digits continue

icbc rates coming down was a decent outlook on affordability

[sdubfid]

Something I never see talked about with relation to housing prices. Population growth is exponential and housing construction is not. Further skewing supply and demand.

[JDMDreams]

Now I'm not sure exactly how the gov will do this but with all the quantitative easing that the government's are doing world wide, $1.9 trillion just approved in the us. I think there will be inflation. It's also what the gov is looking for which means prices of equities and hard assets will go up. So I also believe house prices will continue to go up. #low rates #cash is trash

[westopher]

Originally Posted by sdubfid

Something I never see talked about with relation to housing prices. Population growth is exponential and housing construction is not. Further skewing supply and demand.

Since 2005 the population of the GVRD has increased to 2.5million from 2.1 million.
I’d be curious to see the percentage of increase of dwellings in the same period of time.

[twitchyzero]

i sure see a lot more high rises going up the last 8-10 years

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by westopher

Since 2005 the population of the GVRD has increased to 2.5million from 2.1 million.
I’d be curious to see the percentage of increase of dwellings in the same period of time.

Does that figure include international students, temporary workers, and other non-permanent residents? If it doesn't, these groups have been significant in terms of driving the market among investor-owners for condos.

I think the predictions that boomers would downsize have not come to fruition. Retirees and boomers are not selling their detached homes by choice and there's simply not enough of them to prevent significant price escalation.

[Hondaracer]

Boomers don’t want to move to condos. How many middle aged, 50+ people do you see moving into these new condo builds? Zero? Lol

I think they are also realizing downsizing into a townhome etc. Is not an option because townhomes are nothing but stairs. Even places like the row homes in Panorama in Surrey etc are nothing but stairs. You’ve got your kitchen and living room MAYBE a den on the main floor but the rest of your bedrooms, bathrooms, etc are all up and down stairs.

Add to that, I think many boomers have children who now have young children and in turn, maybe those boomers children are living in multi family situations, therefor I find that boomers are holding onto their single family detached as almost the typical “grandparents” house where the grandkids can come over and have a hard and a house to play in.

My parents are only in their early 60’s and have a big house, big property, way too much for 2 people. However, my sister now has 2 kids and the kids love coming over to a big house and run around, go out in the backyard etc.

If there isn’t financial pressures to move, I think people are far more comfortable in staying where they are than “cashing out” and moving to a high rise etc. Where they don’t feel comfortable

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Traum

I agree with everything you said except for the bolded part. If the last 20 years of Vancouver real estate has taught us anything, it is that this market is insane and unlike anything else in the rest of Canada. Also, given the global COVID debts and how governments around the world have fallen in love with printing money to get themselves out of trouble, I'd say inflation is a real and serious risk that could further artificially inflate that RE transaction price.

I'm not saying price will stay elevated forever. But in the immediate future, it isn't going to happen, and nobody knows when it is going to happen.

I agree on this as well - we may see a slight cooling here or there like we did after 2016 but the trend line is going to be up and to the right. You can find stories tracing back to the 70s' where people complain about housing prices in the GVRD and you can just replace the dates and it's the same story today.

The ship has sailed on housing prices as it powers too much of the economy and governments won't be able to make the brutal choices that drive it back down (and frankly, they can't as WAY too much wealth would be lost and it'd be on the backs of the middle class).

New housing, particularly the type for new families, is just not happening enough - it's either a detached multimillion dollar house or it's a condo. The missing middle of duplexes and townhouses has a massive shortage of supply and our civic leaders are too cowardly to tackle that problem by up zoning the entire city. They do spot rezones that only drive up prices further.

[Great68]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Boomers don’t want to move to condos. How many middle aged, 50+ people do you see moving into these new condo builds? Zero? Lol

I think they are also realizing downsizing into a townhome etc. Is not an option because townhomes are nothing but stairs. Even places like the row homes in Panorama in Surrey etc are nothing but stairs. You’ve got your kitchen and living room MAYBE a den on the main floor but the rest of your bedrooms, bathrooms, etc are all up and down stairs.

Add to that, I think many boomers have children who now have young children and in turn, maybe those boomers children are living in multi family situations, therefor I find that boomers are holding onto their single family detached as almost the typical “grandparents” house where the grandkids can come over and have a hard and a house to play in.

My parents are only in their early 60’s and have a big house, big property, way too much for 2 people. However, my sister now has 2 kids and the kids love coming over to a big house and run around, go out in the backyard etc.

If there isn’t financial pressures to move, I think people are far more comfortable in staying where they are than “cashing out” and moving to a high rise etc. Where they don’t feel comfortable

I agree. I know for my parents downsizing to a condo was never going to even be considered. I'd never fathom them as condo dwellers, I think my dad would go stir crazy. They like their house & neighbourhood, the house is paid off, their pensions and savings cover their living expenses so they have absolutely no reason to move.

[westopher]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Does that figure include international students, temporary workers, and other non-permanent residents? If it doesn't, these groups have been significant in terms of driving the market among investor-owners for condos.

I think the predictions that boomers would downsize have not come to fruition. Retirees and boomers are not selling their detached homes by choice and there's simply not enough of them to prevent significant price escalation.

I don’t know. It’s just what the google machine tells me.
I assume population would include them, but if not, there’s really no way to get the data to give a meaningful explanation.

[CivicBlues]

Here I am reading the last few pages of this thread wondering what the hell I'm doing with my life trying to automate the shitty parts of my life and live as simply as possible so I can leave the rat race as soon as possible.

People here talking about taking on 2 million dollar mortgages and taking on 4 different tenants to help support this.

Whole thing just reminds me of that market in Hong Kong where you see turtles climbing over each other trying to get out. Just ONE MORE INCH GUYS I'LL BE FREE!

[underscore]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Thing is, you’re not really obligated to do any of that though in a detached

How are you not? Aside from going to the gym, that's all wear items you need to take care of as they come up if you want the place to actually be livable and worth something.

[Gumby]

Originally Posted by Great68

I agree. I know for my parents downsizing to a condo was never going to even be considered. I'd never fathom them as condo dwellers, I think my dad would go stir crazy. They like their house & neighbourhood, the house is paid off, their pensions and savings cover their living expenses so they have absolutely no reason to move.

My parents were in the same situation, but sold their huge house in Richmond a few years ago and moved into a condo in central Vancouver to be closer to my sister and I. With the extra cash, they could’ve helped my sister and I get set up, but luckily we’re already set up (except my sister’s family is moving back to a bigger place in Richmond, lol). Instead, they went on multiple vacations per year (pre-pandemic), and bought me a new car.

Something for your parents to consider...

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by underscore

How are you not? Aside from going to the gym, that's all wear items you need to take care of as they come up if you want the place to actually be livable and worth something.

Well to start no ones replacing a roof or windows in a 10/20 year timeframe

As well, if you don’t have a chimney or areas of water ingress a poorly maintained roof can last 20+ years. So some of those replacement timelines are a bit much

Appliances, depending on what you buy can be very cheap, albeit more likely to fail, etc.

Depending on the house, you could do zero maintenance and still be fine, and the way prices have been the last 10-15 years, a poorly maintained house isn’t really a deterrent for purchase. Whereas a building that has poor management, no contingency, and issues with envelope etc. Are massive red flags to potential buyers even in this climate