Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by Badhobz

w year shit up in my house, thanks HK wife.

p.s. i wonder if i were to buy this house, and kept yelling PSYC !!!!!!!!!!!!! in the backyard every time somebody T's off, then maybe the golfcourse will pay me $$$ to leave?

The tips (Last tee's for pros) are even closer than where you circled, I could probably look over your fence or you can see my head from where I am standing. I guess that's why there's a bush there for privacy but I'd like to watch from the window haha.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

It’s probably not going to go to “extreme lows” but over the next 5 years from this point I’d say you could be back around 3% or under on variable

Same it'll be back at mid 3%'s. We made news when it hit 3% the first time in 2014ish - 2015? Or also stabilize at low 4's that's also okay with me. No more $2,600 mortgage in 2024, just $2,300 now

[Harvey Specter]

I can't see the gov't wanting another bull run in the RE market anytime soon and this is the only time in a decade or so they're now in control of the RE market. Rates might come down but they'll likely move forward with more restricted lending.

The days of buying a property and flipping it 6 months later for a $100,000+ profit are most likely behind us.

[Great68]

The government doesn't control rates, the Bank of Canada does. Their primary concerns are inflation and economic outlook, what real estate does isn't really a factor.


I think if current rates stall and recede inflation, with low impact to the economy we'll see the current rates continue for a while, this could be the new "normal rate". I only think we'll see rates reduce if the economy takes a big slump which so far hasn't materializing with the rate increases.

[Gerbs]

BoC operates on its own as a crown corp but owned by the government. I'm sure there's influence behind closed doors.

[Great68]

The BOC is set up the way it is specifically so that it is not influenced by partisan political interests. Any "closed door influence" would pretty ripe to be whistleblown and would kind of shatter confidence in the BOC in pretty short order.

[Hondaracer]

Lol how can anyone say the govt. doesn’t have direct influence in the BoC

Let rampant speculation for decades make housing a commodity and then have the BoC tell everyone to their faces rate increases aren’t coming as detached shacks are crossing the 2 million dollar mark? Come on.

Call that direct or indirect, whatever you want. Govt. Policy influences their decisions

[Harvey Specter]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Lol how can anyone say the govt. doesn’t have direct influence in the BoC

Let rampant speculation for decades make housing a commodity and then have the BoC tell everyone to their faces rate increases aren’t coming as detached shacks are crossing the 2 million dollar mark? Come on.

Call that direct or indirect, whatever you want. Govt. Policy influences their decisions

Exactly.

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Gerbs

Same it'll be back at mid 3%'s. We made news when it hit 3% the first time in 2014ish - 2015? Or also stabilize at low 4's that's also okay with me. No more $2,600 mortgage in 2024, just $2,300 now

I can get out of my fixed mortgage in 26 months and if I can get back down to a 3% rate that'd be great - it'd knock nearly $2k off my payments (from $9k), that's basically the payments for a BGTS 4.0.

My guess is that there's one more increase this Spring and then the BOC holds it till end of year and then we start seeing rates come back down bit by bit next Spring 2024. Not sure a 3% rate will be on the menu by Spring 2025 if that's the case but I'll take whatever is on offer by then.

As for taking a 5 year fixed - I'd take a 3 year at this point and see where it goes but I think 3 year fixed is a bit higher than 5 years. Do the math on what you'd save if the 4th and 5th year are at 3% to see if it works out.

[hypediss]

the govt appoints the BoC governor, so no matter how you see it - there is a degree of control from the controlling party over what BoC does


also, our country is so tied to banking and by extension, commercial and residential real estate as part of our economy that the BoC does care about how well they do because if those two sectors go tits up, we're all fucked

[lowside67]

Originally Posted by Great68

The government doesn't control rates, the Bank of Canada does. Their primary concerns are inflation and economic outlook, what real estate does isn't really a factor.

Real estate appreciation is a significant component of what has driven this round of inflation; what is happening in the housing market definitely is considered by the Bank of Canada in making their decisions.

-Mark

[Great68]

2016 had a bigger proportional jump in housing prices, no action from BOC then. Why all of a sudden now the government is "influencing the bank" over real estate.

Sorry, I don't buy it.

[Hondaracer]

Because consumer debt was never higher?

The “now or never” thought in terms of owning a house was far greater than 2016

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by Great68

2016 had a bigger proportional jump in housing prices, no action from BOC then. Why all of a sudden now the government is "influencing the bank" over real estate.

Sorry, I don't buy it.

We're talking jumps of

$300 -> $400K 1BR in 2016
$350 - > $550K 2BR in 2016
$1M - > $1.5M shacks in 2016

vs

$400K - > $650K 1BR in 2023
$550k - > $900K 2 BR in 2023
$1.5M - > $2.2M shacks in 2023

It's insane how broke you are because you haven't bought in at 2016 prices. $300K household barely clears a 2-3BR. I was looking at the new cencus Canada stats and there's only 1,710 guys in B.C. that clear over $250K between 25 - 34 lol.

[westopher]

Exactly. Even if the growth percentages are similar, we are talking exponential growth percentages of household income required to purchase.
It's a way more substantial problem based on affordability than just growth.

[68style]

Originally Posted by Gerbs

It's insane how broke you are because you haven't bought in at 2016 prices. $300K household barely clears a 2-3BR. I was looking at the new cencus Canada stats and there's only 1,710 guys in B.C. that clear over $250K between 25 - 34 lol.

Weird how like half of them are on RS

[JDMDreams]

Inflation, house prices aren't gonna stay flat. It will at least keep up with inflation. If land price, your labour, materials, cost of borrowing, and don't forget all the taxes the gov gets every time you buy and sell, permits goes up, house prices won't stay flat. Even the city jacks up the property tax by like what 5-7% a year? Home owners aren't charity's.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by 68style

Weird how like half of them are on RS

I met so many of them in the last year, mostly car guys.

Our hobby requires so much $$$ to play, the average person no longer can afford a $10 - 20K beater in todays high cost of living. It's a battle for food, shelter, social life, and paying off student loans.

Odds of owning a $40 - 120K+ sports car like many of RS peeps have means you're very likely part of that 1 of 1,710 or at least the $100 - 150K+ crowd. You really can't make it otherwise because rent is closing in to $2,300 - 2,500 on a 1BR or $1,500 - 1,800 rooming with someone. Mentality for the young folks is that you have to make it to survive here otherwise you going to have to move to Alberta or go homeless.

[Badhobz]

You’re not truly Vancouver rich until you own a 15 million dollar house while being a student / homemaker and drive Ferraris to T&T

If you have declared income you’re just a working class slob

[donk.]

Originally Posted by Badhobz

If you have declared income you’re just a working class slob

[Badhobz]

Originally Posted by donk.

[supafamous]

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2751293/1...-Vancouver-BC/

Guys. Two double garages with driveways on each for only $2.1m in East Van. 4 living units.

[EvoFire]

Originally Posted by supafamous

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2751293/1...-Vancouver-BC/

Guys. Two double garages with driveways on each for only $2.1m in East Van. 4 living units.

That's a short garage, only 18'9"

[JDMDreams]

That's not bad for 2m, rent one side out and basement, then you can do used car business ??? Profit, but it looks like you're next to some Canada post lot.

[Gerbs]

Looks like value!!!