Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[nma]

The only way you're going to see a big change is if interest rates dramatically changed. Or if some disaster happens or money stops coming in but that's kinda common sense.

Bank of Canada won?t hike rates until Q2 2019: Macquarie | Financial Post

I think we are starting to see the prices level off a bit, however, desirable properties are still in HUGE demand. I see less desirable properties sitting a bit longer on the market as opposed to before. However, they are still eventually being sold, as some get fed up and just decide to compromise.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by Manic!

If you have a job and can pay your mortgage what would be the point of selling. If your from China what would you do with that money after selling the house?

This is actually not entirely true in Canada as we usually have 5yr terms on mortgage (as in US you can have 30yr at once, hence no renewal) and every time it comes to renewal, a calculation would be done.

In the example shown, or when one's downpayment gets wiped, lenders would ask one to come up with the difference to ensure their loan to value is still balanced and/or meeting CMHC requirement.

Let's say you buy 2M house, put down 400k, you have a LTV of 80%, which is a healthy number for residential mortgage. Now the house drops by 20% (1.6M asset value). Even if you have no problem on continuing the payment, at your renewal, your LTV becomes different. You now owes 1.36M after 5yrs of payment (calculated at 2.69% interest with 25yr, assuming that stays fixed) on an asset worth 1.6M, so the LTV becomes 85% (or 15% down) and it would trigger CMHC.

2 Options:
1 - pay CMHC insurance and live with the now 15% down and higher monthly payment

2 - pony up ~80k so that the LTV stays the same 80% as before.

Current generation CDN buyer have not experienced something like this as RE have been growing like mad for the last decade and more. But this is exactly what a bank would do (barring any gov't new policy/intervention) in a down market.

[kr4l]

Originally Posted by 68style

^ so why wait? Go buy something in Aberdeen, UK then... It suits your ideology perfectly.

because I know nothing about those places.. At least I know (I hope) Vancouver housing and an comfortable with the decisions I would make here

[Ferra]

Originally Posted by twdm

It doesn't work like that. The better hypothetical situation is. You bought a $3mil house. It dropped 15% in one year. Do you sell? No. OK it drops another 10% next year. Do you sell? No. It drops another 10% in 3 months. Do you sell? How many people could stomach this situation where they lost a few hundred thousand and wiped out all of their down payment and equity.

In addition, no one wants to buy in a down market. Would you buy a house that has been losing 15% year on year? That's what usually happens just like in a stock market crash. The people who can handle the swings ride it out, the majority gets slaughtered.

Actually...most people will hold until they can no longer afford it...human psychology.

and like going to a casino, you never know when prices will raise or drop the next day.

remember back in 2008-2009 after the financial crisis, the housing price in Vancouver only dipped slightly. Many people including a friend of mine were standing on the side line waiting for price to drop further (it only went down like 5-10%)
I was expecting a much steeper decline like in the US. (maybe not 30-40% like in the US, but 15%-20%)...well that didn't happen, and who would've thought prices would increase so drastically over the next few years...

[Gululu]

Originally Posted by Gululu

vancouver only #7. hong kong is negative
china cities takes top 5

nothing will change in vancouver.

I just wanna say this. Any attempts at tinkering with the housing on demands' side will end badly. Just look at what happened to Hong Kong. Now that Mainlanders don't wanna frequent HK anymore, housing in HK has collapsed and continue to downfall. Without Chinese central government's subsidy, Hk cannot compete. Now that Thailand tourism is no1, HK people is so sad.
Not to mention there will be a huge influx of filipino workers in the coming months ahead. Many hong kong's residents are making a return back to Vancouver as well.

Collapse of Hong Kong unfolding in our times

[Coren]

Originally Posted by Gululu

vancouver only #7. hong kong is negative
china cities takes top 5

nothing will change in vancouver.

Can you learn to read before posting? You say #3 Istanbul, TURKEY is part of China

[Hondaracer]

Istanbul, Stockholm, Budapest and Gothenberg are probably all as a result of North African/middle eastern refugees.

I'll take dem mainlanders as opposed to those situations.

[CivicBlues]

LOL I love how gululu's post was failed by "JoshuaWong"

Nice one RS.

[noclue]

I don't get the argument that if houses drop a bit people on the sidelines will buy in and cause the market to go up again.

Unless everyone has $1.5M in cash ready, if the market goes down banks will start being much more conservative in giving out mortgages or freeze lending altogether. You'll probably need at least 30-35% down.

[kr4l]

Originally Posted by noclue

I don't get the argument that if houses drop a bit people on the sidelines will buy in and cause the market to go up again.

Unless everyone has $1.5M in cash ready, if the market goes down banks will start being much more conservative in giving out mortgages or freeze lending altogether. You'll probably need at least 30-35% down.

The people complaining won't have it. The overseas investors will buy 10 at a time. Cash

On another note, i visited my neighbors place across the street. He does those cheap $30-$50 room rentals to mostly Chinese people visiting from out of province etc etc. The place was crazy. Each area you can think of was turned into a 'bedroom'. Basically you walk in and there's a bunch of locks on all the doors (I believe 9 total) and a kitchen common area. Supposedly pulls in $15k cash per month. Crazy

[Gululu]

Originally Posted by kr4l

The people complaining won't have it. The overseas investors will buy 10 at a time. Cash

On another note, i visited my neighbors place across the street. He does those cheap $30-$50 room rentals to mostly Chinese people visiting from out of province etc etc. The place was crazy. Each area you can think of was turned into a 'bedroom'. Basically you walk in and there's a bunch of locks on all the doors (I believe 9 total) and a kitchen common area. Supposedly pulls in $15k cash per month. Crazy

could also be a birth house

[Spoon]

Originally Posted by kr4l

The people complaining won't have it. The overseas investors will buy 10 at a time. Cash

On another note, i visited my neighbors place across the street. He does those cheap $30-$50 room rentals to mostly Chinese people visiting from out of province etc etc. The place was crazy. Each area you can think of was turned into a 'bedroom'. Basically you walk in and there's a bunch of locks on all the doors (I believe 9 total) and a kitchen common area. Supposedly pulls in $15k cash per month. Crazy

I believe they're called brothels

[dat_steve]

that sounds shady as fuck

[Hondaracer]

lolol

[kr4l]

i should mention the place is super clean. It's just Airbnb on a more 'ghetto' scale. You guys can think or say whatever you want, but buddy is supposedly pulling in $150k tax free a year so..

[GLOW]

Originally Posted by dat_steve

that sounds shady as fuck

or where you go for a shady fuck

[MarkyMark]

Originally Posted by kr4l

The people complaining won't have it. The overseas investors will buy 10 at a time. Cash

Yup people who are smart with their money buy 10+ houses at a time in a crashing market. It'll go up sometime right?

[kr4l]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

Yup people who are smart with their money buy 10+ houses at a time in a crashing market. It'll go up sometime right?

IF you did that during the downtime in 2008 or whenever it was, you'd be a mulitmillionaire.. So yes?

[MarkyMark]

Originally Posted by kr4l

IF you did that during the downtime in 2008 or whenever it was, you'd be a mulitmillionaire.. So yes?

They are looking for a safe place to hold their money in another country not lose on a depreciating asset that may regain the glory days in 10 years.

[kr4l]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

They are looking for a safe place to hold their money in another country not lose on a depreciating asset that may regain the glory days in 10 years.

Maybe yes. Maybe no. Unless you're someone that actually did that. I don't know the reasons behind it. All I see is the amount of money that was made and I'd like a small piece of that pie. Obviously I'm not going to jump in head first

[Nlkko]

Dude, enough with the crazy speculations and claims. Please educate yourself on investment. Human psychology doesn't work the way you describe: i.e. "market drop 50% and there's a line up out of the door". No such thing ever.

Second, you are discounting all other dots in the economy connecting to RE. A 50% haircut in RE will create a fucking tsunami in the local economy and the whole world. Remember Thailand 1997. That event wiped out the whole world economy, including the most successful hedge fund at the time LCTM. Feel free to read up. You will have a tons of seller with very few buyers. Guaranteed. Market is all about discounting the future, if people think future will be bleak, they are not gonna buy, Chinese or not. This is called fear.

Third, you are claiming crazy things like if we buy US RE in 2008, we would be billionaire. Just no. Calling bottom is a gambling business. A solid investor will not buy at the bottom, he will buy when price recovered somewhat. Ever watch or read "The Big Short", the guys that predicted the 2007-2008 event, was deep in shit buying credit default swaps before the events happen. It takes knowledge, a lot of money reserve and brass balls to hold out when your P&L are deep in the red. 99.99% of the population will not be able to do that.

Like seriously go educate yourself in investing. It's a very valuable thing to know, even just the basic.

[kr4l]

Ok you guys are right and I'm wrong.

[heleu]

Any property owners here use a HELOC on their mortgage for further investing? Given the huge jump in assessed values, you must be able to borrow quite a bit if you bought a detached house in the last 5 years.

[Tapioca]

^ I'm surprised that the Smith Maneuver doesn't get discussed more here. People always say that the market is only gains on paper, but for those who are risk-tolerant, the rising market has also increased the opportunities for investing. However, people will say that borrowing on the house is no different than borrowing on margin. The difference is that rising housing values, in particular rising detached values, have given people access to far more equity than borrowing on margin ever could.

Using HELOC for investing, whether it's in real estate or equities, is pretty par for the course for many baby boomers. Heck, it's how some first-timers are able to get into the market today - HELOC loans from baby boomer parents.

[westopher]

Originally Posted by heleu

Any property owners here use a HELOC on their mortgage for further investing? Given the huge jump in assessed values, you must be able to borrow quite a bit if you bought a detached house in the last 5 years.

Looking into using mine to invest in a 997 gt3 lol.
Sort of joking......
On an actual real estate note, we had our walk through today to check out our place. Everything I hoped for and then some. 17 more days to move in. Exactly one year from our deposit date.