Quote:
Originally Posted by RFlush  Ulic, since you are into futures trading, what do you see as the impact of future contracts for Bitcoin? People are saying that big companies are buying lots of BTC right now to pump up the prices and then will short.
Does this happen often? your views? |
lol i can honestly say i dont know, i'm not a fundamentals guy. i just follow the chart.
but for sure it'll add liquidity. shorts will be able to short easily.
miners and other whales will be able to short bitcoin to hedge costs against fluctuations.
i honestly have NO clue what's gonna happen when futures launch.
some people think it'll add volatility. sure?
some people think it'll stabilize... sure?
i honestly don't care. as long as it can be traded, i will trade it... if i can afford the margins LOL.
i've met some new traders that started on bitcoin and have no moved away from it and toward forex because of the super high liquidity and virtually zero slippage (and super high leverage lol).
the only people that really love bitcoin are the maniacs and bag holders.
any trader that trades in and out, can easily trade any other market, they're all the fucking same as long as you have high volume and liquidity. i mean there must be some traders out there that take advantage of low volume, shitty ass spreads and have some weird strategy to take advantage of that. but those are prob pretty rare.
if it becomes popular amongst institutions and regular traders (people that trade on platforms that deal with fiat as base currency), then for sure volume will def increase by a lot. bitcoin market right now is actually still pretty tiny.
imagine volume tripling or... even x5 x7 x8... there's a buncha people out there that wish they could buy bitcoin but dealing with wallets and shady exchanges are too complicated... now they can buy.
there's a shit ton of people that doubt bitcoin and think they're just tulips... now they can short.
yeah sorry didnt answer your question.
i don't try to predict the market anymore (keyword try), i just follow it. that's the only way i've ever made money. every time i've tried to predict something, i usually end up losing money.
the goal for me isn't to be "right" about predictions and be Nostradamus. i only care about making money consistently. and so far, that has been best achieved by not predicting anything, and just managing risk and profit ratios.
i honestly, HONESTLY think u can show two traders the same graph, and they can go in opposite positions, and based on how they manage the position, they can both make money. or both lose money.
lol.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerbs Is there going to be a clearinghouse to ensure no one defaults on these futures? |
of course. CME is a clearing house... they do 1000 trillion dollars a year. lol i'm sure it'll be fine. i've never heard of anyone getting away with not paying up... like ever. they'll send their chicago gangsters down and fuckin "disappear" u in lake michigan.
plus the only people that are actually going to take delivery on the futures are miners and whales. who make up a tiny tiny tiny fraction of the number of btc traders out there.
i cant think of anyone that would buy btc futures to hedge... if anyone could fill me in here that'd be great. who is afraid of btc prices going up? like what kind of person/business/entity would be hurt by btc prices going up? like that's one fundamental problem i see with it, no one needs it. lol.
airlines hedge against crude oil prices going up by buying it.
crude oil producers hedge against oil prices going down by shorting it.
many examples can be made for gold, silver and other industrial products that are bought and sold and "needed" for their industry to survive.
but bitcoin? i duno. lol. I just know it'll return to mean at some point. it's going exponential now, and that is impossible to predict. could go to 20k, 50k, 100k. the graph looks all the same. just a straight line up. but it'll eventually return to the mean after the "crash". duno how long that'll take. could be by end of year, could be next year, could be in 5 years lol 10 years who knows.
the only losers will be the bag holders and maniacs that never sell out ever. and have kept buying and averaging up the whole way lol.
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