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Killing the x and s to focus on there shitty Optimus bot. Hyundai who owns Boston dynamics is going to have there robots in US factories this year. Tesla is also investing 2 billion in Xai. They should kill the cybertruck but musk to embarrassed to do so.
I think the writing was on the wall when the last update to Model S/X didn't really change anything other than adding lights inside and some other minor tweaks. It accounts 3% of total Tesla deliveries which is merely a rounding error when you compare it to 3/Y volume.
Boston Dynamic's bot is shit. A buddy's work owns one of their robot dogs to do some field job too dangerous/costly for human to go, but programming that shit took a year and half and even now it only kinda works by having a remote operator.
Think BD bots vs. Tesla bots as PDA phones vs. iPhone. What exactly did iPhone bring into the market that totally changed the way we use phone? It wasn't the most powerful phone when it launched. It wasn't the best equipped phone either.
It was because it's so simple to use that even my parents who never really got around using a PC despite my best effort, were able to use iPhone/iPads without taking any classes or lessons at all. They were so intuitive. One didn't need to read a user manual. You just swipe and worst case, press the home button to get out.
It's never about the best bot, nor most powerful, and nor the most agile. Every bot-making companies on Earth now face the same problem. How to make it work for regular folk? I'd love to see how Tesla is solving it. But if they can make a bot that even my folks can use, sky is the limit on where Tesla will go. S/X production line is a small price to pay.
Think about being able to own an army of robots that replace "you" on any chores. I would buy 10 of them for not even the 20-30k/pop figure that Musk is suggesting. Bill me 100k each and I will still take 10 of them. Things I can do with 10 ppl that works nearly 24/7 without pay without food without ever complaining? Making 1M back is nothing.
Is the Tesla bot really at that level though? I haven't followed the whole bot thing so I can't comment how viable Tesla's version actually is.
I agree for cutting edge technology, first to market isn't going to guarantee you a win, if anything you are showing people where the improvements need to be and when they roll out their own version it'll have overcome some of the challenges the first-to-market faced. I'm not sure honestly if this is the way forward yet, especially in manufacturer where purpose built robots I think are way better suited for those jobs. Bots would be for open ended tasks which frankly I don't think we are quite there yet.
Yea I wonder if the tech or ai is that good. What's stopping someone from using the bots to do something illegal? Go shoot ice, defend the house beat up the crack head
When the optimus bots were revealed, it was remote controlled by humans. I dont think they have advanced the tech enough to 1. close assembly for model S/X (though it was time to kill it - poor sales) and 2. fulfill hehes vision.
If they killed the cybertruck and released a new model x that's a fullsize SUV/minivan without that stupid door it'll sell better.
Obvious but did they kill the Cybertruck? Cuz they should.
They “sold” a ton of them to space x… some creative accounting going on.
Tesla is an EV company
Tesla is a software company
Tesla is a robotics company
Tesla is an AI company
Tesla is a space company
Is the Tesla bot really at that level though? I haven't followed the whole bot thing so I can't comment how viable Tesla's version actually is.
I agree for cutting edge technology, first to market isn't going to guarantee you a win, if anything you are showing people where the improvements need to be and when they roll out their own version it'll have overcome some of the challenges the first-to-market faced. I'm not sure honestly if this is the way forward yet, especially in manufacturer where purpose built robots I think are way better suited for those jobs. Bots would be for open ended tasks which frankly I don't think we are quite there yet.
No one not under NDA knows exactly how far Tesla has gone with its bots.
But from tidbits of Elon and ppl who had been demo'd Optimus V3 (the one that is going into production. Anything you can find online now is only up to V2) is the follow:
It has human-like hands capable of carrying out actions that require fine hand manipulation (which is a lot... we as human don't think of it, but it's super hard for bots)
Other physical capability is limited similar to an average person (lifting load, running speed... etc), or maybe slightly under. This is purposely done to ensure safety where Tesla Bots won't suddenly become terminators and an average person can overpower it in the worst case scenario.
Now the learning: with its FSD-derived AI, it can recognize our surroundings (enviro, things and person) as well as to reason any particular in that surrounding. Elon has stated that Optimus V3 learns by either copying what you do (you do a demo, it thinks about what's behind it and repeats the same), you tell it what to do (and its NN/LLM would reason the given action and parameters) or you tell it to learn how to do something online and replicate it at home (think Matrix-style skill loading).
Ultimately, no need to go into programming say how much power to deliver in any of its motors/actuators (that's what you need to do with BD dog for specific tasks). For example, you want it to take clean dishes out of dishwasher. It'd reason that it's to take them out. The materials can be either metal, glass, plastic or ceramics. Thus it'd decide by itself the necessary torque to apply in any portion of its body and put where they belong as one'd usually organize things in cabinet in a particular pattern.
From ppl who have seen V3 demos, they all say it's incredible and no one would remember Tesla was even a carmaker in the future because it'd be known for its robots.
World models (AI that understands how physical things happen and the physical environment) will show up in 3-4 years, starting to show up now with super early research previews.
This matters because robots like Optimus are waiting for them.
That said, a hand is not necessarily the best tool for task execution and confirmation. I agree that humanoid++ is probably a pretty good way to move around, but disagree on hands.
I think we will se robots with more like 4 hands/arms.
World models (AI that understands how physical things happen and the physical environment) will show up in 3-4 years, starting to show up now with super early research previews.
This matters because robots like Optimus are waiting for them.
That said, a hand is not necessarily the best tool for task execution and confirmation. I agree that humanoid++ is probably a pretty good way to move around, but disagree on hands.
I think we will se robots with more like 4 hands/arms.
I agree that we’d see super bots with multi hands and whatever, but hands are extremely important if the purpose of such humanoids is to replace human. The way it has been done thus far is to do things within its limits. Human hands have 27 degrees of freedom, it allows us to do the things we carry out in day to day life and our tools are optimized to use those degree of freedom. Tesla v3 bots has 22 degrees of freedom. Not quite human yet, but the idea is that it could use many of the tools or stuff in our life that we use without thinking.
It sounds very simple. But how to coordinate all the actuators in place to perform just the right amount of movement is something every bot company faces.
We have long developed superhuman level of machineries to do specific job that’s optimized in shape, form and function. But for something to replace human hands on all the fine tasks we do day to day, the easiest way is just to get as close to human as possible. We have engineered our environment and tools for human to use. Anything that don’t replicate human might excel in some tasks, but completely suck in all other.
I wonder if it'd be something I can afford... (probably not )
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by westopher
The whole world has gone down a road no one can recover from, and it's nothing to do with governments, it's because so much of the general public is so fucking stupid.
I wonder if it'd be something I can afford... (probably not )
Realistically, I think you can. Badhobz wasn't joking about the lease rates in comparison to the competition for the M3. And if you follow RabidRat's math of using a CELOC, you'll come up top on the deal. Forget the haters.
Projected at $50K US = $75-80K Canadian. That's a LOT of money for an EV.
But frankly speaking, the shape looks like a VW Jetta ... not sure why from that pic you think it looks 'pretty good'. Not seeing what you're seeing.
Hmm... Cdn $75 - 80k, eh? That is pretty steep.
I think it looks good in the sense that it looks like a normal / traditional looking car, instead of some radical space age blob, or awkward looking pretender sedan that sits too high. I think exterior designs like the Kia EV4, TM3 / TMY are pretty ugly. Late models i4 would have looked good (like a normal vehicle) if it wasn't for their extra large nostrils.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by westopher
The whole world has gone down a road no one can recover from, and it's nothing to do with governments, it's because so much of the general public is so fucking stupid.
Projected at $50K US = $75-80K Canadian. That's a LOT of money for an EV.
I believe most cars aren't priced 1:1 with the US dollar - like the Civic Si and GTI are both way cheaper in Canada so I wouldn't expect this to be 75-80k, probably more like $65k.
Quote:
Originally Posted by whitev70r
But frankly speaking, the shape looks like a VW Jetta ... not sure why from that pic you think it looks 'pretty good'. Not seeing what you're seeing.
I think details matter a great deal as most cars now have the same profile for aero and safety reasons. The iX3 ended up reasonably close to the prototypes so I'd expect the sedan to be the same as well and the sedan prototype was pretty well liked.
As long as it doesn’t have a pig nose of any sort, I’d consider it a massive improvement!
__________________ Do Not Put Aftershave on Your Balls. -604CEFIRO Looks like I'm gonna have some hot sex again tonight...OOPS i got the 6 pack. that wont last me the night, I better go back and get the 24 pack! -Turbo E kinda off topic but obama is a dilf - miss_crayon Honest to fucking Christ the easiest way to get a married woman in the mood is clean the house and do the laundry.....I've been with the same girl almost 17 years, ask me how I know. - quasi
I think it looks good in the sense that it looks like a normal / traditional looking car, instead of some radical space age blob, or awkward looking pretender sedan that sits too high. I think exterior designs like the Kia EV4, TM3 / TMY are pretty ugly. Late models i4 would have looked good (like a normal vehicle) if it wasn't for their extra large nostrils.
I would expect it to be 90k out the door with some options.
What I'd suggest if you are seriously interested is look for a 2-3 yr old one, ideally with another year or so left on warranty. That 90k i3 50 would probably be around 55k and you'll be out the door around 65k. There are lots of low mileage lease returns as I've seen a fair few 6-10k mileage iX.
Granted, you aren't too picky about colour and options. It's going to be overwhelmingly black/black on vinyl seats, and mid option.
I would expect it to be 90k out the door with some options.
What I'd suggest if you are seriously interested is look for a 2-3 yr old one, ideally with another year or so left on warranty. That 90k i3 50 would probably be around 55k and you'll be out the door around 65k. There are lots of low mileage lease returns as I've seen a fair few 6-10k mileage iX.
Granted, you aren't too picky about colour and options. It's going to be overwhelmingly black/black on vinyl seats, and mid option.
Ask me how I know
My iX is vinyl and honestly it's pretty convincing to leather, thought I was gonna be a hater after the vinyl in the model Y. Mine also has that stupid crystal switches, please dont get it the sun reflection goes straight into the eyes.
My iX is vinyl and honestly it's pretty convincing to leather, thought I was gonna be a hater after the vinyl in the model Y. Mine also has that stupid crystal switches, please dont get it the sun reflection goes straight into the eyes.
My ass is made of velvet and I can actually feel a difference between their sensatec and leather, my wife rolls her eyes at me cause I complained about the vinyl when we test drove cars. The cars have been overwhelmingly vinyl, I might just give in as there's a mineral white X5 45e for sale that checks most of my boxes.
We had the glass controls in our old X5 and I'm not a fan of it, but in the iX, glass controls come packaged with the wood control panel which I do really like. If you don't have the wood panel then it's a slab of black plastic.
I use to be like hehe but now I don't believe anything musk says. Where are the semi trucks whats happening with the tunnels and when can I fly half way around the world in a couple of hours.
China has all the advantages when it comes to this. They can hire a lot more engineers and just built faster. There is no secret sauce elon has. He also does not have the first mover advantage like he did with EV cars.
__________________ Until the lions have their own historians, the history of the hunt will always glorify the hunter.
I find luxury brands still have a slight edge on ride quality and NVH for now in the Western market. The Chinese brands are quickly closing this gap, but I'm not seeing a similar change with VW / Kia / Toyota etc.
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beat up the crack head
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