REVscene - Vancouver Automotive Forum

SumAznGuy · 10-27-2022, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great68

I think this was that other real estate thread from earlier 2012

https://www.revscene.net/forums/6702...slowing-5.html

There should be at least 1 if not 2 threads pre 2012.
One would have been started in pre-2008 financial crisis. Speculation was the 2010 Olympics driving up housing prices.

But yeah, very interesting re-reading these threads and seeing what predictions was right and what prediction was wrong.

Great68 · 10-27-2022, 10:23 AM

This old thread from 2010 is a funny blast to the past, with hypa and taylor192 going at it. With an appearance from 4444:

https://www.revscene.net/forums/6039...vancouver.html

I remember the threads around 2008 but it looks like Revscene's database doesn't go back that far.

Badhobz · 10-27-2022, 11:25 AM

wtf happen to Hypa!? miss that dude.

Traum · 10-27-2022, 11:36 AM

I miss 4444. His insights on the housing market -- esp in relation to his work as a property manager -- were fantastic.

68style · 10-27-2022, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Badhobz

wtf happen to Hypa!? miss that dude.

I bought my EK Civic from him that I k-swapped... he was restoring a Beaumont at the time I think... he's still around, he's mostly focused on his family and skiing stuff. Great guy.

SumAznGuy · 10-27-2022, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Traum

I miss 4444. His insights on the housing market -- esp in relation to his work as a property manager -- were fantastic.

No, I think you are thinking of Gridlock and Dinosaur.
4444 was a finance guy. Re-reading some of his comments, he wasn't wrong per se about fundamentals, but the world has really changed.

westopher · 10-27-2022, 12:38 PM

That’s the thing about 4444. Objectively, he should have been right. The housing market being Wall Street made him wrong. In modern capitalism money isn’t actually functioning as it should based on the actual goal of capitalism. As long as massive corporations get tax funded bailouts it’s capitalism for the poor and communism for the rich.

Gerbs · 10-27-2022, 12:39 PM

Dinosaur is active on reddit now lol

sonick · 10-27-2022, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SumAznGuy

No, I think you are thinking of Gridlock and Dinosaur.
4444 was a finance guy. Re-reading some of his comments, he wasn't wrong per se about fundamentals, but the world has really changed.

The key fundamental that changed from 10 years ago was rent prices relative to housing prices was much lower back then. That in conjunction with a possible drop in the housing market did make sense back then.

However over the years rent prices went way up and housing never really dropped significantly, which made rent+invest a less effective strategy than putting it into a down payment and paying a mortgage.

Would be interesting to do a historical calculation of rent + invest in sp500 vs Vancouver housing prices and see which ends up on top.

SumAznGuy · 10-27-2022, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sonick

The key fundamental that changed from 10 years ago was rent prices relative to housing prices was much lower back then. That in conjunction with a possible drop in the housing market did make sense back then.

However over the years rent prices went way up and housing never really dropped significantly, which made rent+invest a less effective strategy than putting it into a down payment and paying a mortgage.

There's 2 ppl that posted comments that struck a cord with me.
One person, who is still active on RS talked about how great it was to rent etc... ended buying a house.

Second person was 4444 and the comment about what LL doesn't want a business professional who gives them 12 post-dated cheques in advance.

Curious if he is still paying 2012 rental prices (+2% year rent increases of course) or did he change his tune and buy a place in VAN.

SumAznGuy · 10-27-2022, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by westopher

That’s the thing about 4444. Objectively, he should have been right. The housing market being Wall Street made him wrong. In modern capitalism money isn’t actually functioning as it should based on the actual goal of capitalism. As long as massive corporations get tax funded bailouts it’s capitalism for the poor and communism for the rich.

There's him and Taylor192 IIRC. Both had similar views on the housing market.

I went as far back as RS would let me and took a quick look at some of the threads from RS Off Topic chat 2009 and there were some interesting threads.

It's like history likes to repeat it self.

Wormiez · 10-27-2022, 01:14 PM

Capitalism to the max with Blackrock, Ontario Teachers Association, and many other large investment groups currently buying up many of the detached houses in Vancouver...

supafamous · 10-27-2022, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SumAznGuy

4444 was a finance guy. Re-reading some of his comments, he wasn't wrong per se about fundamentals, but the world has really changed.

Can anyone offer a tl;dr of his argument from 10 years ago about the state of real estate? At the time I remember lots of talk around how the fundamentals will eventually turn the tide and that's what I went along with but today it seems we grossly underestimated how deep the supply challenges (and they are huge) and how our language should be around affordability rather than the price itself. It seemed that back then no one talked about the crisis in supply at all.

SumAznGuy · 10-27-2022, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by supafamous

Can anyone offer a tl;dr of his argument from 10 years ago about the state of real estate? At the time I remember lots of talk around how the fundamentals will eventually turn the tide and that's what I went along with but today it seems we grossly underestimated how deep the supply challenges (and they are huge) and how our language should be around affordability rather than the price itself. It seemed that back then no one talked about the crisis in supply at all.

Don't quote me as I am old and my memory isn't quite there.

4444 talked about the fundamentals. Don't let the mountains, green grass and clean air fool you about how desirable VAN.
Financial fundamentals is the key. Local economy etc is what drives housing prices.

He rented locally but with his work, had access to cheap money to buy in the US to be a LL.

I know there is more but that's the jist of it.

westopher · 10-27-2022, 01:54 PM

The main thing he used to say, which I’m dumbing down, is that for housing to cost x amount, y people need to live there on z wages. That was also before anyone who had money didn’t actually work like the world is today. People who were doctors, lawyers, etc were still rich whether they were given money by their factory owner parents or not.

TypeRNammer · 10-27-2022, 02:33 PM

Anyone here familiar with water utility bills for City of Vancouver?

We are in the middle of the process of getting a laneway home built. Building permit was recently issued.

But prior to that, some time in the middle of the year, CoV installed a water meter in relation to the laneway house. Now the primary home is getting billed with water, but haven't broken ground yet for the laneway house.

I thought water utility commences when a new build is complete?

Acura604 · 10-28-2022, 11:57 AM

westopher · 10-28-2022, 12:22 PM

Hmm 2008 rates for an inflated real estate market. What happened again in 2008? Oh yeah the income inequality gap widened and has never gonna back to previous levels. Maybe this time it will all work.

snowball · 10-28-2022, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Buying a SFH when this thread started would have been the best investment you ever made

Too bad the majority of RS was still in highschool or post-secondary at the time. Or a bunch of graduating students with no jobs due to the 08 recession. Damn we all old now.

Great68 · 10-28-2022, 02:32 PM

I thought most of us here are pushing our 40's by now...

PeanutButter · 10-28-2022, 03:04 PM

Is income inequality just a function of time, so the more time passes, the bigger the gap gets? Is that just due to lack of financial education/awareness?

For example, I grew up thinking everyone owned their own home. It wasn't until like college I came to understand that some of my friends parents were renting? That blew my mind. Imagine being in the 80's and renting and not buying a house... That one mistake has set back their childs financial level forever.

Imagine not inheriting a house from your parents. How would your children or their children ever afford to live in this city?

I was talking to this girl today who said she was third generation Canadian and she and her family were renting. It really makes me question why they don't have at least two or three properties. I would think that every generation is just passing down wealth and all you have to do is maintain it. Which makes me realize how important it is to educate my kids about personal finance and wealth.

donk. · 10-28-2022, 03:17 PM

Most people don't want to own a home. They would rather spend 60$ three times a week going out with their friends for dinner, buying smokes, and shit off amazon they don't need.

Then when they hit 40, and they go to a birthday party, everyone around them has some form of investment. They either bitch and whine that you got lucky, or that they are happy renting.

If you want to own a property, you can, even on 50k/year salary. You just need to make some massive sacrifices for 5-10 years, and buy a dump for 300k in Abbotsford to start

Traum · 10-28-2022, 03:24 PM

Based on my own observations, building up and passing down that generational wealth is definitely not a universal concept. It is more prevalent in certain cultures -- Chinese culture certainly encourages it, as is Italian and Greek cultures.

And then there is affordability itself. For parents raising families in the 70's and 80's, cost of living and housing affordability were not major issues. In fact, with the high interest rates in the 80's, it might have been a more prudent thing to rent instead of buy.

Of course, wealthy families -- and I'm talking about the 1 and 2-percenters here -- they have always known the importance of intergenerational wealth.

Quote:

Originally Posted by PeanutButter

I was talking to this girl today who said she was third generation Canadian and she and her family were renting. It really makes me question why they don't have at least two or three properties. I would think that every generation is just passing down wealth and all you have to do is maintain it. Which makes me realize how important it is to educate my kids about personal finance and wealth.

MarkyMark · 10-28-2022, 03:26 PM

lol who's buying anything with a 50k salary? How are you saving for the down payment while paying rent and other expenses?

PeanutButter · 10-28-2022, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

lol who's buying anything with a 50k salary? How are you saving for the down payment while paying rent and other expenses?

he said $300k condo in abbotsford...

So 5% down ~$15k down payment and $2k monthly payment for mortgage/insurnace/maintenance

Doable.