STOCK MARKET Thread

[Hehe]

I think what WB is doing with HBO Max is going to be the end of cinema as we know it.

The same way WB put the final nail on the format war between Bluray and HDDVD.

If they are streaming their blockbusters, with so many people have like 65+ or 80+ inch TV, the appeal of going to cinema is really going downhill.

And the coronavirus basically accelerated the trend. Even with vaccines and all, when will people start feeling safe to go to movies again? Yes, maybe the majority doesn't care about covid restrictions, let's just say 30% will shift their behavior in respect to how to consume their movies, that'd mean 30% less movie ticket sales.

Movie distributors might be watching how WB does with their trial on HBO Max. If it goes well... Cineplex will go the same way as blockbuster.

[Hondaracer]

Especially when the massive production companies can start pushing their movies through streaming services and then have those streaming services bill for the movie. IE. Prime Video

Using a 3rd party service to charge for your new movie releases is genius. Who wants to pay WB or any other production company for a BR, or even through On-demand content, but when you see that movie sitting on Prime, Netflix, etc. and its a click away and billed to your account which is already active, it's a no brainer

[SpeedStars]

I think people tend to forget Cineplex is essentially a monopoly in regards to theaters in Canada so they don't really need to innovate. They only need to exist to screen new movies. If the movie production companies begin to do day 1 digital I could see it being over for cgx.

[Hondaracer]

Blockbuster was a monopoly as well comparatively.

[MelonBoy]

Originally Posted by Mr.Money

i have a real question for you guys on a money move.


Cineplex is crashing and burning right now,you take the big gamble and buy in while its allll nice and low and next years its all in the green?

I took a small position.. probably average down if it continues to drop.
Good thing is its a monopoly plus it has secured funding till end of 2021. So if it does flop it won't be flopping soon lol

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Blockbuster was a monopoly as well comparatively.

I would disagree. Blockbuster was done in by a better alternative in their "home video/movies market". Imo, cineplex is about the experience of the big screen/crowds/social gathering/dates. Which isn't replicable at home..

Also I don't think movie producers/actors/actresses would allow it for movies to go directly to streaming.. Would be/is a huge push back from the industry because of the loss of revenue from ticket sales

[bcedhk]

Originally Posted by MelonBoy

I took a small position.. probably average down if it continues to drop.
Good thing is its a monopoly plus it has secured funding till end of 2021. So if it does flop it won't be flopping soon lol





I would disagree. Blockbuster was done in by a better alternative in their "home video/movies market". Imo, cineplex is about the experience of the big screen/crowds/social gathering/dates. Which isn't replicable at home..

Also I don't think movie producers/actors/actresses would allow it for movies to go directly to streaming.. Would be/is a huge push back from the industry because of the loss of revenue from ticket sales

There's a lot of movies that have been on Netflix/Prime Video.

I'm sure with COVID and with more people looking to watch from the comfort of their own home, they will be willing to fork out $10-15 to stream a movie. The industry will need to innovate and find another stream of revenue (e.g. mini shows on youtube, ads, merch)

[whitev70r]

Going to the movies is an 'experience' that can't be quite replicated by streaming at home. Sometimes, it is a family going out together experience. Or, a teenage/young adult rite of passage experience. No matter how big of a subwoofer you have at home, those action packed movies is better in the theatre. The aging population that prefers to watch movies in their pajamas at home instead of the hassle of going to a theatre was there pre-Covid - this is just a stage of life. People are dying to get out of their house (which for many now, is their office) ... Cineplex should bring you some gains in 2021. Not retire early gains but good steady gains ... I think.

[eclipseman]

I get that the theatre experience is different than staying at home, but I'm guessing the large movie chains will be replaced by boutique experiences soon enough. The price point will be much higher as well. I just don't see them being able to innovate enough.

I personally wouldn't park any funds into Cineplex, AMC or Cinemark. If you're looking for a reversal, try Gamestop.

[Hehe]

Last 5min today at closing was epic for TSLA movements. That 63M shares buy order at 695 sealed the deal... pretty much last second too.

Not sure if there's anyone else holding TSLA here. But congrats to all TSLA holders. We are in the BIG BOY club now! Hello S&P500

[DGN23]

Theatres have an uphill battle ahead of them IMO. Disney is no doubt already at least considering using their streaming service to release all future films.

As for the people are eager to get out of the house arguments. Are people chomping at the bit to get out of the house? Yes. Are they chomping at the bit to get out of the house and go sit silently inside a theatre to watch a movie? Doubt it.

[see.lai]

Originally Posted by Hehe

Last 5min today at closing was epic for TSLA movements. That 63M shares buy order at 695 sealed the deal... pretty much last second too.

Not sure if there's anyone else holding TSLA here. But congrats to all TSLA holders. We are in the BIG BOY club now! Hello S&P500

Joined late to the TSLA gang after spectating this thread during this year. Averaged down to $417 post split. Feelsgoodman.

That last 5-10 minutes was definitely intense. Lots of juicy opportunities today, but whoever got in during that large dip at the end of the day, congrats.

[Mr.Money]

its insane to me the few people automatically assume every studio is gonna go digital.



mean while these banger movies like ghost busters is holding out for 2021.

[Hondaracer]

Those that don’t go digital will be left behind and forced to eventually

[underscore]

There will be at least some market for movie theatres so long as teenagers need a dark place to make out for 2 hours.

[Hehe]

I don't think cinema will disappear completely. But just think about it... if there's a movie you want to watch, instead of checking for schedule, making sure you get in time, line-up (for blockbusters), expensive drinks and popcorns... etc

vs.

comfort at home, no people bothering, and can bang the chick if so wanted, start whenever I want. Pause if I need to take a leak... etc

It's just not even on the same level of comfort. Yes the cinema has some crazy laser projectors with Dolby Atmos with a gazillion speakers, but at the end of the day, convenience almost always win.

It's like going to the arcade vs. playing games at home... kids today don't even really know what an arcade is anymore. Their knowledge of "arcade" probably came from Wreck It Ralph.

Up until now, we go to the movies because that's the ONLY option if you want to see the latest blockbusters. If now given the options... I know I'd be the first to sign up because that means I don't have to work around the schedule, I don't have to find a babysitter, and I don't have to check my wife or whoever I go movie with schedule. Just hit "play" and go. And I'm just an average Joe... my life's limitations are those of thousands in the city.

[whitev70r]

Cineplex was ~$34 preCovid. It's at $9 now ... do you think you could double your investment in a year? It doesn't need to get back to $34 for you to get some gains, all it has to do is get to $20.

As with NCLH ... it was ~$60US before Covid, it is now $25US. All it needs to do is get back to like $40US in the next year or so for some decent gains.

Not retire early gains but still ... the potential or possibility is there.

Same with AC if you got in at $16 when it hit rock bottom, it is already at $23. At one point, I think it went up to $26.

[unit]

personally i think cineplex has potential to recover some of it's losses, enough that if you time it properly you can make some money, but who can say with the changing market, anything is possible.

AC and airlines on the other hand, they will almost certainly recover eventually.

cruiselines will recover but not as easily as airlines imo. i think the industry is damaged.

anyway just my 2c. not currently holding any of these.

[Hehe]

IMO, if anyone wants to make some play on travel industry as a whole, be it cruise liners or airlines, you should be ready to be in it for the long term. Say 2+ years for some significant return.

However, that timeline is not for the faint of heart because there might be some shocks in between. I'd probably load up some long term OTM calls spread out different dates for cheap and be done with rather than buying stocks since there's too much volatility ahead.

[Hondaracer]

I’m back on NCLH.

Got tired of watching the small swings every day, took advantage of the dip today and back in it for the long term.

[Mr.Money]

i'd bet on rich old retirees too, this is long term though if you cannot afford to have anything tied up too long i wouldn't have done it.



some strange reason you always hear old people hype up cruises and you'd never catch me on one knowing with 20 grand i can do a lot more.

[Hondaracer]

Yea cruises have zero appeal to me but the thirst for them seems unquenchable lol

[blkgsr]

Originally Posted by whitev70r

Cineplex was ~$34 preCovid. It's at $9 now ... do you think you could double your investment in a year? It doesn't need to get back to $34 for you to get some gains, all it has to do is get to $20.

As with NCLH ... it was ~$60US before Covid, it is now $25US. All it needs to do is get back to like $40US in the next year or so for some decent gains.

Not retire early gains but still ... the potential or possibility is there.

Same with AC if you got in at $16 when it hit rock bottom, it is already at $23. At one point, I think it went up to $26.

i agree....i got AC at like 13.45

[bcedhk]

Originally Posted by unit

personally i think cineplex has potential to recover some of it's losses, enough that if you time it properly you can make some money, but who can say with the changing market, anything is possible.

AC and airlines on the other hand, they will almost certainly recover eventually.

cruiselines will recover but not as easily as airlines imo. i think the industry is damaged.

anyway just my 2c. not currently holding any of these.

Do you think Netflix, Sony or heck even Amazon swallowing up Cinaplex?

[whitev70r]

Originally Posted by bcedhk

Do you think Netflix, Sony or heck even Amazon swallowing up Cinaplex?

If that's the case, then CGX would make some gains ... win win.

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by Razor Ramon HG

I myself got into BTWN earlier today on the dip.

It's a SPAC backed by Richard Li and Peter Thiel. Rumored to take Tokopedia, a leading Indonesian ecommerce platform public. Was all over Bloomberg yesterday.

Definitely a gamble since Tokopedia is also mulling over just doing an IPO with Morgan Stanley and Citi as advisors.. but I read they've been talking about going public for years now. Seeing as a SPAC can bring them public in a matter of months, perhaps SoftBank can push them in this direction.

With that said, I had never heard of Tokopedia prior to doing my research yesterday. If I can't get Tokopedia through a SPAC, I'll probably buy some when they IPO.. Shopee is another big ecommerce platform in Indonesia (and many other countries in SEA) and Sea Limited (which owns Shopee) has been a good investment for me.

So what’s the plan with BTWN? Lol

I got in around same time as you here and it’s seen like a 15-18% gain so far