Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[R. Mutt]

I remember the realtor at WCCP told us he majority of unit were investment properties just sitting. When we bought I couldn’t help but notice every once in a while a person would hop on the elevator and go from one floor to another. As in a person changing floors to go to another unit. Crazy stuff...I still see it every now and again in the north tower. I’d see nice rides parked in the garage for months...m4, 2018 gtr...some collecting dust and then disappear all of a sudden.

[Mr.HappySilp]

I guess I am trying to say is pre sale nowadays will be worth double than a few years back. Tons of pre sale back in the 2013 to 2014 is more than double now. One bedroom back then was barely 300k 2 bedroom around 400k. Now they are all worth double at least. I don't think a 600k 1 bedroom will be 1.2m in a few years time. If that happen there will be riot lol.

[franko]

Originally Posted by Harvey Specter

Danger will pre-sales is you're still buying high and who knows how high rates will go, what mortgage rules will change and what NDP foreign buyer tactics will pop up next year. Also biggest concern for me is what happens to all the people who bought pre-sales and can't qualify for a mortgage who will flood the market with assignments. This will put further downward pressure on prices.

Personally I'm sitting on the sidelines and waiting until next Spring to see where the RE market is heading. Right now a lot of people haven't received the memo and prices don't reflect the current state of the market. It'll take a few months for reality to set in.

Mortgage qualification rules are grandfathered to those in effect on the date when you signed the contract. IE: If you have a new build purchase contract from prior to the fall 2016 changes that still hasn't completed, you can do 30 year AM conventional insurable qualifying on contract rate for a 5 year fixed.

[G]

WCCP was a great by for me. I managed to get it as an assignment after moving back to town, and gained back around 75-80% profit. I'll be honest, without that lift, I don't think I would be able to even look at 2 bedrooms given the current stress test and mortgage rules.

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by R. Mutt

I remember the realtor at WCCP told us he majority of unit were investment properties just sitting. When we bought I couldn’t help but notice every once in a while a person would hop on the elevator and go from one floor to another. As in a person changing floors to go to another unit. Crazy stuff...I still see it every now and again in the north tower. I’d see nice rides parked in the garage for months...m4, 2018 gtr...some collecting dust and then disappear all of a sudden.

Most likely is the developer hiring a caretaker for all these investment property. At least that's my guest.

As for the fancy car I seen a few ferrari parking in the underground parking. One would always park at the handicapped visitor spot (it was like a CRV). Must be a c-lai driving it given how poor the car was parked. But I don't see it anymore in the visitor or maybe it was given enough warning/tow the owner knows better now?

Originally Posted by G

WCCP was a great by for me. I managed to get it as an assignment after moving back to town, and gained back around 75-80% profit. I'll be honest, without that lift, I don't think I would be able to even look at 2 bedrooms given the current stress test and mortgage rules.

Is the current stress test and mortgage really that strict? I was lucky enough I made enough from selling my one bedroom and got a two bedroom in coquitlam so I only have to pay around 10 to 15k out of my pocket (lawyer fees, reno, tax, etc etc all added up)

[Eff-1]

What I have noticed with pre-sales is developers are starting to offer more purchase incentives to help sell off any remaining units. This is something unheard of up until this spring.

Pre-sales with attractive starting prices in the surrey central area will continue to sell quickly.

Units in Langley will be harder to move unless prices come down a bit.

Units in Burnaby/Metrotown/Lougheed will be the ones to offer the most "purchase incentives" because there is a lot of upcoming supply soon and competition between developers.

Units in more desirable areas where supply is limited (Cambie Corridor) will continue to stay high at $1400 psf or more, and the developers are least likely to budge on price waiting for a market recovery.

Toronto's market crashed hard in 2017 after government rules were introduced. 9 - 12 months later it is rebounding. I think we'll see that same path here, we are just about a year behind the GTA.

[Nabatron]

yeah buying pre sales right now would be a gamble for sure. Like others said you don't know where the mortgage rates will be in the future but as my realtor friends say the government puts rules in place so that the 2008 disaster wouldn't happen again. I mean say for instance you have all these condos/townhomes being built and all of a sudden government said they will increase mortgage rates to 10% obviously hypothetically speaking. With prices of housing people cant even get a place with rates right now imagine interest rates at 10%. Sellers/developers would have to drop their prices on their places just to try and get rid of them. So as for the market crashing I couldn't see if happening. I could just see the rates go up abit more to try and correct the housing prices to a certain extent.

[yray]

developer backed mortgages by christmas



China credit bubbles pop

buy buy buy guys

[!LittleDragon]

Originally Posted by Nabatron

yeah buying pre sales right now would be a gamble for sure. Like others said you don't know where the mortgage rates will be in the future but as my realtor friends say the government puts rules in place so that the 2008 disaster wouldn't happen again. I mean say for instance you have all these condos/townhomes being built and all of a sudden government said they will increase mortgage rates to 10% obviously hypothetically speaking. With prices of housing people cant even get a place with rates right now imagine interest rates at 10%. Sellers/developers would have to drop their prices on their places just to try and get rid of them. So as for the market crashing I couldn't see if happening. I could just see the rates go up abit more to try and correct the housing prices to a certain extent.

There won't be a crash, that's like a 10% drop over a few days. However, we could be looking at a decade of declines. Dunno what's worse, quickly ripping off the bandaid or slowly peeling it off...

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by !LittleDragon

There won't be a crash, that's like a 10% drop over a few days. However, we could be looking at a decade of declines. Dunno what's worse, quickly ripping off the bandaid or slowly peeling it off...

Or vote NDP out lol.

[Nabatron]

^vote NDP out and housing prices go up again?

[!LittleDragon]

Sure but NDP doesn't control rates. They may be making it worse right now but the trend is still downward.

[twitchyzero]

interest goes up but prices come down
does it really matter if your monthlys are still insanely high?
I haven't worked out the math but wouldn't you be paying off interest much longer until you even get to start paying off your property?
you've shifted to from powering the developers to powering the lenders

[!LittleDragon]

I did some basic calculations a while back when rates where in the mid 2% range. Even at such a low rate, you'll end up paying about double what you borrowed over 25 years.

Borrow $600k for a condo, the place needs to be 1.2 million by the time you pay it off to break even. Even at 1.2 million, I haven't taken into account 25 years of inflation, upkeep costs, property taxes, etc.

I'd rather have higher rates and lower prices. It's a hell of a lot easier to pay back $300k at 8-10% than $600k at 3%.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by Harvey Specter

Hopefully the people who made money flipping WCCP paid taxes because the CRA announced last week they're probing WCCP, Trump Tower and the Tempo project in Richmond. This is another reason the presale market will cool down.

I doubt people reported their taxable capital gains. Isn't the penalty only up to 100% of the taxes avoided.

[Acurapinoy]

Originally Posted by !LittleDragon

I did some basic calculations a while back when rates where in the mid 2% range. Even at such a low rate, you'll end up paying about double what you borrowed over 25 years.

Borrow $600k for a condo, the place needs to be 1.2 million by the time you pay it off to break even. Even at 1.2 million, I haven't taken into account 25 years of inflation, upkeep costs, property taxes, etc.

I'd rather have higher rates and lower prices. It's a hell of a lot easier to pay back $300k at 8-10% than $600k at 3%.

But do we really expect the prices to drop back down to 300k? What if the prices are at 500ish but with 10% rate

[Nabatron]

I cant see homes just completely dropping to the point where it would be accessible to the average person who is working at starbucks lol

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by Nabatron

I cant see homes just completely dropping to the point where it would be accessible to the average person who is working at starbucks lol

As I’ve always said, Sacramento has 2 bedroom ranchers for 700k USD. Where would you rather live?

[Nabatron]

^Okanagan lol

[Hondaracer]

Fair enough, just saying the lower mainland looks pretty good even at these prices compared to a lot of places in the states.

From all the economists I’ve been listening to on podcasts etc though the next recession is right around the corner! Buy gold!

[Nabatron]

another recession u say? well thats not good at all! why do u say buy gold?

[yray]

Originally Posted by Nabatron

another recession u say? well thats not good at all! why do u say buy gold?

gold is quite low

or you can buy mac coins?

Originally Posted by Acurapinoy

But do we really expect the prices to drop back down to 300k? What if the prices are at 500ish but with 10% rate

Also, 500k+50k versus 700k+35k

[Hondaracer]

Gold is always the standard when a crash happens, somthing tangible

Gold mining companies etc. as well apparently

most of these economists though just like to try and predict somthing so when it eventually does happen they can say they told you so

[zyzzjr]

Buy bitcoin. 100k coming

[westopher]

Originally Posted by yray

Also, 500k+50k versus 700k+35k

You know thats not how interest works right?
10% interest on a 500k loan is like 700k INTEREST over 25 years.