The Official 2019/2020 Canucks & NHL Thread

[Jmac]

Originally Posted by whitev70r

Could someone run the analytics on Canucks win % without Markstrom this season, project that for the time he is expected to be out, and then add projected number of win when he returns for the rest of the season? What is point total and is it good enough to be in? Thanks.

My intuition says, it will be a nail biter.

Markstrom is 23-16-4 in 43 starts (0.581 P%), other goalies 11-9-2 in 22 starts (0.545 P%).

Markstrom is expected to be out 4-6 weeks, or basically most of the rest of the season.

Assuming Markstrom misses March and those percentages continue, that’s 19 points to finish with 93 points. Of course, those percentages don’t tell the whole story as Markstrom has clearly stolen a lot of games while Demko, not so much.

Projected cut is currently 90 points.

[Expresso]

Originally Posted by spoon.ek9

It wasn't even a goaltending issue today I'd say. If anything, Domingue was more solid and confident than Demko has been the last few games. The team is just playing like shit as soon as they hit some adversity.

I don't know I feel like lately our defense has been garbage outside of the Hughes pairing. Markstrom just has that ability cover that and steal games from time to time.

[spoon.ek9]

Originally Posted by Expresso

I don't know I feel like lately our defense has been garbage outside of the Hughes pairing. Markstrom just has that ability cover that and steal games from time to time.

That's what my post was alluding to lol. Defense has been bad, goaltending was not the primary concern last night. If this team can't get their team defense to improve it won't matter if we make the playoffs. They ain't going far.

[whitev70r]

Originally Posted by Jmac

Projected cut is currently 90 points.

Thanks for the simple projection ... I thought in order to be safe for 8th spot, usually 94-96 range is usual bare minimum. Last year was a bit of an anomoly with Colorado getting in with 90 pts. Regardless, I think it might be real close, down to last couple of games possibly.

[Jmac]

Well the other issue is that we have bled shots like crazy all season primarily because we’re a run-and-gun offense rather than a puck possession offense plus we rely on our powerplay (which has been really good) moreso than most teams (1st in PP goals at the end of last game). If you look at our 5-on-5 numbers, they’re not very good (outscored 134-131, outshot like crazy (at work, don’t remember exact numbers)).

[Jmac]

Originally Posted by whitev70r

Thanks for the simple projection ... I thought in order to be safe for 8th spot, usually 94-96 range is usual bare minimum. Last year was a bit of an anomoly with Colorado getting in with 90 pts. Regardless, I think it might be real close, down to last couple of games possibly.

The number will likely change by the end of the season.

[bobbinka]

YouTube

[68style]

I've been concerned all season about the optics of our play, giving up high quality scoring changes and 40+ shot games is not sustainable IMHO...

However, I'm less concerned about the CBJ collapse... I mean... we had an even worse collapse against Pittsburgh.......... and a pretty big one against Washington... these things do happen now and then during the season. It's not the end of the world...

See how they bounce back on this homestand. I'm way more concerned with the season long issue of shots/chances against.

[Infiniti]

Originally Posted by 68style

I've been concerned all season about the optics of our play, giving up high quality scoring changes and 40+ shot games is not sustainable IMHO...

However, I'm less concerned about the CBJ collapse... I mean... we had an even worse collapse against Pittsburgh.......... and a pretty big one against Washington... these things do happen now and then during the season. It's not the end of the world...

See how they bounce back on this homestand. I'm way more concerned with the season long issue of shots/chances against.

What is alarming about the CBJ collapse is the fact that they shat the bed during the "meaningful" part of the season when competition levels have ratcheted up. Its one thing to do this in December, but to do this in March when literally every point counts really is an indictment of the team itself.

[Jmac]

If the Canucks go 0.500 down the stretch (say 7-7-3 with 5 regulation wins), that puts them at 91 points and 31 RW.

Here’s what other teams need to do to clear that:
St. Louis 2-14-0
Colorado 2-16-0
Dallas 5-11-1
Vegas 5-9-1
Edmonton 7-9-1
Nashville 9-8-1
Calgary 8-6-1
Minnesota 10-7-0
Winnipeg 9-5-1
Arizona 9-5-1
Chicago 13-4-0
San Jose 15-1-1
Anaheim 16-1-0
Los Angeles N/A

If 5 Pacific or 8 total teams clear that, the Canucks miss the playoffs with that 0.500 record down the stretch.

[Mike Oxbig]

Im more concern about Myers

[Expresso]

Myers is a pylon but everyone knew that even before he was signed...GJ JB. He's our Loui Eriksson of defense. To think we will have to let Stetcher or Tanev go over him...

[bobbinka]

Myers and Hughes both missing from practice and are day to day...

[Mike Oxbig]

Originally Posted by Expresso

Myers is a pylon but everyone knew that even before he was signed...GJ JB. He's our Loui Eriksson of defense. To think we will have to let Stetcher or Tanev go over him...

Jets fans were laughing at us when we signed him for 6 mill over on reddit.

What is the reason he is paid 6 mill, i dont understand. (dont say hes 6'7)

[Blah_Teggie]

Originally Posted by Mike Oxbig

Jets fans were laughing at us when we signed him for 6 mill over on reddit.

What is the reason he is paid 6 mill, i dont understand. (dont say hes 6'7)

Cuz he's 6'8

[Jmac]

Because Myers is tied for the 23rd highest cap hit for dmen. Myers has never been a top pairing defenseman, so paying him as one was always going to be ridiculously overpriced.

[spoon.ek9]

the revolving door for defensemen has been absolute shit for the last 5 years. As bad as Myers can be at times, he's still an upgrade over the likes of Poulliot, Sbiza, Gudbranson, Hutton, etc. You have to give him sooooome credit. He has improved some things since the beginning of the season.

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by Mike Oxbig

Jets fans were laughing at us when we signed him for 6 mill over on reddit.

What is the reason he is paid 6 mill, i dont understand. (dont say hes 6'7)

And jets fans crying now and would probably gladly take the cap hit with their lack of dmen

[highfive]

Originally Posted by Jmac

Because Myers is tied for the 23rd highest cap hit for dmen. Myers has never been a top pairing defenseman, so paying him as one was always going to be ridiculously overpriced.

Not defending Myers but $6mil isn’t top pairing defenceman money.

Isn’t it closer to $7-8+ like doughy and Karlsson?

Keep in mind how many dman ends up getting to ufa each off season.

That’s why I’m surprised at the lack of dman drafting all these years. All we got to show for is Quinn, ollie and woo.

Should be like the preds. Always drafting d.

[6thGear.]

Originally Posted by Expresso

Myers is a pylon but everyone knew that even before he was signed...GJ JB. He's our Loui Eriksson of defense. To think we will have to let Stetcher or Tanev go over him...

We may have Rafferty, Brisbois, Tryamkin, Chatfield and possibly Juolevi to take those spots. If that's the case Stetch and Tanev will have to be traded off season before July 1st

Originally Posted by spoon.ek9

the revolving door for defensemen has been absolute shit for the last 5 years. As bad as Myers can be at times, he's still an upgrade over the likes of Poulliot, Sbiza, Gudbranson, Hutton, etc. You have to give him sooooome credit. He has improved some things since the beginning of the season.

What Myers has done is solidify the defense core. He doesn't need to be a top pair dman but as long as he's somewhat solid on 2nd pairing I have no problem with him. Even if he gets dropped to 3rd pairing he's more of an improvement over say Benn or Stetcher.

[whitev70r]

Bring back Tryamkin. Canucks would have the tallest pair of Dmen.

[Blah_Teggie]

I have no problems with the way Myers is playing. Like someone else said, he’s a huge improvement over the likes of Biega, Pouliot, Gudbranson, MDZ etc. Having said that, Myers did benefit from being on a super weak D free agent class of 2019. Off the top of my head, the other guys on there I can think of are Jake Gardiner, Anton Stralman, Ben Chariot, Ben Hutton and so on. Which of those 4 would you rather have? I’ll take Myers at 6 mil

[Jmac]

Originally Posted by highfive

Not defending Myers but $6mil isn’t top pairing defenceman money.

Isn’t it closer to $7-8+ like doughy and Karlsson?

Keep in mind how many dman ends up getting to ufa each off season.

That’s why I’m surprised at the lack of dman drafting all these years. All we got to show for is Quinn, ollie and woo.

Should be like the preds. Always drafting d.

23rd highest cap hit in a 31-team league isn't top pairing money?

Even if you look at cap hit % at the time of signing and assume that those who signed deals at RFAs get less money, he's still 39th with 16 dmen who signed their current contracts as RFAs within 1% of his cap hit % ($5.2M in today's money), which is still top-62 (top pairing money).

Doughty and Karlsson are getting $11M+, they're the two highest paid dmen in the league, and they have the two highest cap hit % at the times of signing.

From Capfriendly

PLAYER AGE SIGNING AGE CLAUSE CAP HIT CAP HIT %
1. Erik Karlsson 29 29 NMC $11,500,000 14.5%
2. Drew Doughty 29 29 NMC $11,000,000 13.8%
3. Shea Weber 33 26 $7,857,143 13.1%
4. P.K. Subban 30 25 $9,000,000 13.0%
5. Ryan Suter 34 27 NMC $7,538,461 12.6%
6. Kris Letang 32 27 M-NTC, NMC $7,250,000 11.3%
7. Brent Burns 34 32 M-NTC $8,000,000 11.0%
8. Victor Hedman 28 25 NMC $7,875,000 10.8%
9. Dustin Byfuglien 34 30 M-NTC $7,600,000 10.4%
10. Oliver Ekman-Larsson 27 27 NMC $8,250,000 10.4%
11. Aaron Ekblad 23 20 $7,500,000 10.3%
12. Alex Pietrangelo 29 23 NTC $6,500,000 10.1%
13. John Carlson 29 28 M-NTC $8,000,000 10.1%
14. Jacob Trouba 25 25 $8,000,000 9.8%
15. Duncan Keith 35 26 NMC $5,538,462 9.8%
16. Brent Seabrook 34 31 NMC $6,875,000 9.6%
17. Marc-Édouard Vlasic 32 31 NMC $7,000,000 9.3%
18. Mark Giordano 35 31 NTC $6,750,000 9.2%
19. Keith Yandle 32 29 NMC $6,350,000 8.7%
20. Cam Fowler 27 26 M-NTC $6,500,000 8.7%
21. Ryan McDonagh 30 30 NTC $6,750,000 8.5%
22. Matt Niskanen 32 27 M-NTC $5,750,000 8.3%
23. Ivan Provorov 22 22 $6,750,000 8.3%
24. Marc Staal 32 28 NMC $5,700,000 8.3%
25. Erik Johnson 31 27 M-NTC, NMC $6,000,000 8.2%
26. Johnny Boychuk 35 31 M-NTC $6,000,000 8.2%
27. Dougie Hamilton 26 22 $5,750,000 8.1%
28. Jeff Petry 31 27 M-NTC, NMC $5,500,000 8.0%
29. Nick Leddy 28 23 $5,500,000 8.0%
30. Ryan Ellis 28 28 $6,250,000 7.9%
31. Matt Dumba 24 23 $6,000,000 7.5%
32. Alexander Edler 33 33 NMC $6,000,000 7.5%
33. Tyson Barrie 27 24 $5,500,000 7.5%
34. Justin Faulk 27 22 NTC $4,833,333 7.5%
35. Alex Goligoski 33 30 M-NTC $5,475,000 7.5%
36. Nate Schmidt 27 27 M-NTC $5,950,000 7.5%
37. Rasmus Ristolainen 24 21 $5,400,000 7.4%
38. Seth Jones 24 21 $5,400,000 7.4%
39. Tyler Myers 29 29 NMC $6,000,000 7.4%
40. Colton Parayko 26 24 $5,500,000 7.3%
41. Justin Schultz 28 26 M-NTC $5,500,000 7.3%
42. Esa Lindell 25 25 $5,800,000 7.3%
43. Jared Spurgeon 29 26 NMC $5,187,500 7.3%
44. Andy Greene 36 31 NTC $5,000,000 7.2%
45. Torey Krug 28 25 M-NTC $5,250,000 7.2%
46. Hampus Lindholm 25 22 $5,205,556 7.2%
47. Jaccob Slavin 25 24 $5,300,000 7.1%
48. Morgan Rielly 25 22 $5,000,000 7.0%
49. Danny DeKeyser 29 26 NTC $5,000,000 6.8%
50. Sami Vatanen 28 25 $4,875,000 6.8%
51. Dmitry Orlov 27 25 M-NTC $5,100,000 6.8%
52. Mike Green 33 32 M-NTC $5,375,000 6.8%
53. Anton Strålman 32 32 M-NTC $5,500,000 6.7%
54. TJ Brodie 29 25 M-NTC $4,650,400 6.7%
55. Jonathan Ericsson 35 30 M-NTC $4,250,000 6.6%
56. Brady Skjei 25 24 $5,250,000 6.6%
57. Shea Theodore 23 22 $5,200,000 6.5%
58. Michael Matheson 25 24 $4,875,000 6.5%
59. Christopher Tanev 29 25 M-NTC $4,450,000 6.4%
60. Niklas Hjalmarsson 32 32 NMC $5,000,000 6.3%
61. Noah Hanifin 22 21 $4,950,000 6.2%
62. Roman Josi 29 23 $4,000,000 6.2%
63. Karl Alzner 30 28 M-NTC $4,625,000 6.2%
64. Jason Demers 31 28 M-NTC $4,500,000 6.2%
65. Nikita Zaitsev 27 25 M-NTC $4,500,000 6.2%
66. Shayne Gostisbehere 26 24 $4,500,000 6.2%
67. John Klingberg 26 22 $4,250,000 6.2%
68. Zachary Werenski 21 21 $5,000,000 6.1%
69. Jonas Brodin 25 21 $4,166,667 6.0%
70. Charlie McAvoy 21 21 $4,900,000 6.0%
71. Travis Hamonic 28 22 $3,857,143 6.0%
72. David Savard 28 24 $4,250,000 6.0%
73. Adam Larsson 26 22 $4,166,666 5.8%
74. Brendan Smith 30 28 M-NTC $4,350,000 5.8%
75. Alec Martinez 31 27 $4,000,000 5.8%
76. Jake Muzzin 30 25 $4,000,000 5.8%
77. Marco Scandella 29 24 $4,000,000 5.8%
78. Jakob Chychrun 21 21 $4,600,000 5.8%
79. Dmitry Kulikov 28 26 M-NTC $4,333,333 5.8%
80. Calvin De Haan 28 27 $4,550,000 5.7%
81. Olli Määttä 24 21 $4,083,333 5.7%
82. Oscar Klefbom 25 22 $4,167,000 5.7%
83. Ryan Murray 25 25 $4,600,000 5.6%
84. Damon Severson 24 22 $4,166,666 5.6%
85. Cody Ceci 25 25 $4,500,000 5.5%
86. Justin Braun 32 27 $3,800,000 5.5%
87. Josh Manson 27 26 M-NTC $4,100,000 5.5%
88. Brian Dumoulin 27 25 $4,100,000 5.5%
89. Brett Pesce 24 22 $4,025,000 5.4%
90. Ian Cole 30 29 $4,250,000 5.3%
91. Erik Gudbranson 27 26 $4,000,000 5.3%
92. Kris Russell 32 30 M-NTC, NMC $4,000,000 5.3%
93. Connor Murphy 26 23 $3,850,000 5.3%
94. Mattias Ekholm 29 25 $3,750,000 5.3%
95. Jake Gardiner 28 28 M-NTC $4,050,000 5.0%
96. Colin Miller 26 25 $3,875,000 4.9%
97. Radko Gudas 29 26 $3,350,000 4.6%
98. Will Butcher 24 24 $3,733,333 4.6%
99. Brenden Dillon 28 24 $3,270,000 4.6%
100. Ben Chiarot 28 28 M-NTC $3,500,000 4.3%
101. Ron Hainsey 38 38 M-NTC $3,500,000 4.3%
102. Brandon Montour 25 24 $3,387,500 4.3%
103. Trevor Daley 35 33 M-NTC $3,166,666 4.2%
104. Jack Johnson 32 31 $3,250,000 4.1%
105. Jay Bouwmeester 35 35 NTC $3,250,000 4.1%
106. Darnell Nurse 24 23 $3,200,000 4.0%
107. Travis Sanheim 23 23 $3,250,000 4.0%
108. Joshua Morrissey 24 23 $3,150,000 4.0%
109. Nikita Zadorov 24 24 $3,200,000 3.9%
110. Joel Edmundson 26 26 $3,100,000 3.8%
111. Neal Pionk 23 23 $3,000,000 3.7%
112. Patrik Nemeth 27 27 $3,000,000 3.7%
113. Mark Pysyk 27 25 $2,733,333 3.6%
114. Markus Nutivaara 25 24 $2,700,000 3.6%
115. Kevan Miller 31 28 $2,500,000 3.5%
116. Brandon Carlo 22 22 $2,850,000 3.5%
117. Jake McCabe 25 25 $2,850,000 3.5%
118. John Moore 28 27 $2,750,000 3.5%
119. Derek Forbort 27 26 $2,525,000 3.4%
120. Brayden McNabb 28 27 $2,500,000 3.3%
121. Nick Jensen 28 28 $2,500,000 3.1%
122. Thomas Hickey 30 29 $2,500,000 3.1%
123. Michal Kempný 28 27 $2,500,000 3.1%
124. Matt Hunwick 34 32 $2,250,000 3.0%
125. Stephen Johns 27 26 $2,350,000 3.0%
126. Troy Stecher 25 24 $2,325,000 2.9%
127. Trevor van Riemsdyk 27 26 $2,300,000 2.9%
128. Greg Pateryn 29 28 $2,250,000 2.8%
129. Brandon Manning 29 28 $2,250,000 2.8%
130. Nick Holden 32 31 $2,200,000 2.8%
131. Jamie Oleksiak 26 25 $2,137,500 2.7%
132. Matthew Benning 25 24 $1,900,000 2.5%
133. Ryan Pulock 24 23 $2,000,000 2.5%
134. Zdeno Chara 42 42 NMC $2,000,000 2.5%
135. Jordie Benn 31 31 $2,000,000 2.5%
136. Brett Kulak 25 25 $1,850,000 2.3%
137. Roman Polák 33 33 $1,750,000 2.2%
138. Kevin Shattenkirk 30 30 NTC $1,750,000 2.1%
139. Carl Gunnarsson 32 32 M-NTC $1,750,000 2.1%
140. Braydon Coburn 34 34 NTC $1,700,000 2.1%
141. Adam Pelech 24 22 $1,600,000 2.1%
142. Scott Harrington 26 26 $1,633,333 2.0%
143. MacKenzie Weegar 25 25 $1,600,000 2.0%
144. Mark Barberio 29 28 $1,450,000 1.9%
145. Scott Mayfield 26 25 $1,450,000 1.9%
146. Matt Grzelcyk 25 24 $1,400,000 1.9%
147. Connor Carrick 25 25 $1,500,000 1.8%
148. Mike Reilly 25 25 $1,500,000 1.8%
149. Andrej Sekera 33 33 $1,500,000 1.8%
150. Ben Hutton 26 26 $1,500,000 1.8%

[Mike Oxbig]

lets hope this signing allow seattle to take Myers or trade for Dumba

[bobbinka]

Myers has NMC, so we have to protect him