| stuff99 | 06-18-2009 10:36 PM |
The case for and against Sedin Twin super deals. Would you roll the dice?
By Botchford 06-18-2009 COMMENTS(9) The White Towel
At first glance, the identical 12-year, $63 million contracts the Sedins supposedly tabled this week will shock some, turn some heads, and drop some jaws.
Some in Vancouver were feeling high anxiety at the possibility of a six-year term for the pair. You can probably even put GM Mike Gillis in that group as he hasn't offered them anything more than five years.
You can understand why. No one knows exactly how these "super deals" will work out over the long run. They are a new beast.
But some consider the super deals a loophole in the CBA, and one which can be used to build a Stanley Cup contender without significant risk. You can can put Detroit GM Ken Holland in this group.
The genius of his Henrik Zetterberg and Johan Franzen deals are in the details.
Zetterberg's cap hit should be at least $7 million a year. But his 12-year, $73 million deal means Detroit gets him for a $6.08 million-a-year cap hit.
Some will balk at the idea of that cap hit when Zetterberg is in his late 30s.
But in terms of actual dollars, Zetterberg gets just $5.35 million total in the final three years of the deal ($3.35 million, $1 million, $1 million). There's not much chance he will play for that at age 37. So, the most likely scenario is he will retire and those three years, and his cap hit for those three years, will be wiped clean from the books.
Franzen's deal is structured similarly.
This brings us back to the twins and why their reported proposal should be intriguing for the Canucks if structured properly.
Let's say 7, 7, 7, 7, 6.5, 6.5, 6, 6, 5, 3, 1, 1
They can get the Sedins at a bargain cap hit of $5.25 million for eight or nine years. Maybe even lower if the Canucks add another year or negoitate a lower total. Imagine what that could look like if the cap increases in five years and the twins are still productive.
A deal like this would allow Gillis to add important pieces during the next few years, while also giving the team cap room to do things like sign Roberto Luongo and Ryan Kesler to extensions.
Meanwhile, the Canucks make the salary so low in the final three years, the twins aren't likely to play. Even if they wanted to, the team could set itself up with the option of putting them in the minors, to eliminate the cap hit.
Deals like this, however, are not without risk. And it's a big one. If either Sedin suffered a major injury, or a series of smaller ones, it would change everything.
Look how fast Brendan Morrison's game has deteriorated. Or Todd Bertuzzi. Or Jonathan Cheechoo.
Sometimes players see their production fall off even without injuries. See Dany Heatley, Olli Jokinen and Markus Naslund.
In 2002-03, Bertuzzi was the best power forward in the NHL. Naslund was arguably the best player. What would have happened if they signed twin,12-year deals? (Certainly, there would have been more incentive for Naslund to keep playing if he had a deal like that).
If the Sedins, either one, sees production fall off significantly twin super deals could cripple the Canucks.
It's a gamble all right. Are you willing to role the dice? | 