Originally Posted by Lomac (Post 8808823)

Yes, actually. A buyer/category specialist isn't going to watch the weather for every city around the country. They look at sales records for past years, particularly for seasonal items. If stores in a certain district only moved an average of 500 units between them all in Period 11 over the past two years, they're going to make sure their on hands will match that for the current year. No point in ordering excess stock and have it sit around in the warehouse collecting dust if previous sales don't support it.

Now, long range forecasts are notoriously incorrect, especially in the GVRD. If a store manager of a particular store wanted extra stock just in case, then Home Office can redirect a portion of their backup stock in a local distribution warehouse to said store. Now, if all the stores started clamoring for extra stock, then it would likely have to come from a warehouse not local to the area (remember, no point stocking excess product that historically doesn't sell well in the area.) This means pulling from somewhere Eastwards of the Rocky Mountains. That means you're looking at extra shipping days, not including the time needed to pull the stock, tack them onto each store's regular shipments (or, more likely, create an emergency shipment order and incur the unexpected shipping fees), and then send out the trailers. Oh, and hope that there are no road closures or rail delays (which, being that time of year, is an absolute guarantee... Roger's Pass? Crow's Nest? Coquihalla Summit? Helmer's Lake? Yeah, they all have accidents this time of year, which delays truck shipments.) Sure, you can ship it all air, but that costs a fucking fortune for bulk items.

Remember, this all has to be done days in advance while working solely off of a long range forecast for Vancouver. What happens if two days before the alleged snowfall happens, the forecast changes to +2* and rain? Then all of that extra work, costs, and stock would have been for naught.

See what I'm saying? Yes, I've done this shit before.




If your prep work was done solely by putting on winter tires, then why are you bitching about snow shovels being sold out of local stores?

My prep work for winter is putting on my snow tires, making sure my snow shovels are still in good condition, bulking up on ice melt and sand, and ensuring my emergency bag in the trunk is up to date and modified with winter gear.

Just sayin'.

Originally Posted by Jmac (Post 8808838)

To play devil's advocate here, the last 2 years were strong el nino years, which means typically well above seasonal average temperatures (little chance of snow) for the Vancouver region (which is exactly what happened). This year being a la nina year, with below seasonal average temperatures, has a significantly higher chance of snow and ice compared to average, let alone the past 2 years.

Should companies not take things like this into account, considering this is predicted months in advance and is generally accurate (for the season as a whole, not on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis)?

The last la nina winters we had were: '11-'12, '10-'11, and '07-'08. You'd hope they'd compare demand from those years mixed in with some ENSO neutral years to determine stock levels in the region rather than a flat average or just looking at the past 2 (extremely unseasonably warm) years.

Originally Posted by Lowered_Klass (Post 8808846)

Oh and all this talk about snow shovels, etc, concider this lesson learned. Next year when you see that Costco has the nice snow shovels for $10, don't be a cheap fuck, and put one in your cart. Same with rock salt. Grab a bag when you don't need it, and put it away for when you do. You'll thank yourself a thousand times over when the time comes to use both.

Originally Posted by Lomac (Post 8808843)

In theory, yes. I'm sure there are calculating models for purchasing out there that can accommodate for fluctuations in years past. But putting it to actual practice is a different matter. The biggest issue is how far back systems go when it comes to inventory stock levels. At my work, even with Home Office level access, I can only see back a maximum of three years. Other companies may have different systems that can catalogue further back, but mine doesn't.

Originally Posted by flagella (Post 8808854)

So to summarize what you've said in your previous post and this post, the system is backward looking with no forecasting models built into it other than looking at the weather forecast. Even then it's useless because hey, weather forecast can be inaccurate, so why bother factor it into the inventory level. This is such a pathetic model compared to the models energy trading industry uses. How about taking into account of the sheer number of houses that have been sold just in the past year? Not just the existing houses but all the new development? The answer people inevitably get is always "this is how we have done it in the past." Retail industry is so behind in these types of analysis that no wonder it's been shrinking in the past. Just a matter of time before it is pretty much eliminated.

Originally Posted by NKC ONE (Post 8808783)

Sorry if it's been covered before but is M+S ok for sea to sky? Got a Whistler trip on monday and I just got back from a 2 week Asia trip. Kinda hard to get legit snow tires lately.

Originally Posted by Lomac (Post 8808858)

Meh. My company doesn't need much in the way of forecasting because we typically don't have seasonal sales, so sales history from a decade ago isn't necessary. I'm sure places like Canadian Tire and Home Depot have a different purchasing system than ours because their sales model is different.

Either way, you asked and I gave you an answer. They've been talking about La Nina for months now. Should have purchased that snow shovel long before this weekend. ;)

Originally Posted by flagella (Post 8808868)

Not sure why you keep telling me that I should've bought a shovel when right off the bat I already mentioned that there was no need for me to buy one. I get out of my driveway fine without any issue with snow tires. I'd rather have some coffee at home and watch a movie than shoveling outside unless there is a sidewalk outside my home requires me to do so.

Originally Posted by flagella (Post 8808803)

Geez... every place is out of snow shovel. I get that there is immediate demand but it was forecasted a week ahead and you'd think these shops would stock them up to drive some sales. What a fucking joke.

Anybody knows any other places to get snow shovels in Coq area? As of last night CT, home depot, superstore, walmart are all out.

Originally Posted by flagella (Post 8808868)

I'm bitching at how pathetic the local stores are in forecasting the demand, and how behind the industry you are in in terms of technology. I suppose that pushed your button? By your logic Lomac, if everyone had prepared a week in advance, the demand would still have not been accommodated because the shovels would've run out a week ago. You might as well be bitching and saying well then people should've bought snow shovels in summer in anticipation of the winter so that the demand would've not spiked so much. The truth is, I don't think you realize that there are way more things out there that are much harder to forecast, and there are models built to do a fine job at it. Now, how your company has operated is none of my business. A company can continue to do stupid things and remain status quo if there is a lack of competition. But it makes complete financial sense to be able to accurately predict demand spike, particularly in seasonal items.

Originally Posted by MG1 (Post 8808848)

I'm at Princess Auto looking for a 240 volt heater for the garage. Took the Smart for Two Electric Drive. I have Conti Contact winter tires on it and it is very good on snow, slush and ice. RWD, btw.

Originally Posted by flagella (Post 8808871)

Appreciate the answer though. Just further confirmed how behind it is and I sure hope it's your temporary job. It did surprise me, however, how you managed to spew that it makes no financial sense to do it. I hope you don't carry that sort of backward thinking into your future jobs, whatever they may be. Local shops don't bother doing it because they will survive without doing so. It isn't because it makes no financial sense to do it :rofl:

Originally Posted by inv4zn (Post 8808745)

All season - hamburger
All season M+S - cheeseburger
Winter - Quarter pounder w/ cheese

I drove through Monday's storm on M+S all seasons, and they did rather well. Little to no slipping, went up hills fine, stopped fine. Much better than I expected (tires are for sale btw :P).

Then Wednesday I got X-ice3s and the difference is very noticeable.

TL;DR - they're better than regular All Seasons, but Winters are in a different league.

Originally Posted by SoNaRWaVe (Post 8808888)

i would just assume that stores have an actual number based on previous year or 2 of sales of a particular item and based on that, have a projection number that it will sell and keep that amount in the store.

to add in watching the weather, keep an eye on forecasting, make sure if its nino or nina and all that stuff was said, i doubt stores have that type of complexity or willing to pay that kind of dough out. i mean if the store manager was really keen, then maybe they might order extras. other than that, its just another paycheque.