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Old 03-15-2014, 03:19 AM   #551
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I'm starting to think more and more it went up North.
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Old 03-15-2014, 03:32 AM   #552
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^ Based on what we know I would agree.

Here's the route for the flight it could have shadowed to hide from primary radar across India, etc. (going north sounds more likely though, in which case another flight may have worked)

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Old 03-15-2014, 03:34 AM   #553
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What's the logic of stealing cargo and landing it in Iran, Israel and the US are dying to send drones and bomb the shit out of them, why risk it? The cargo can't be that valuable to their nuclear facility. They have all the equipment to enrich uranium, don't they?
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Old 03-15-2014, 03:46 AM   #554
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What's the logic of stealing cargo and landing it in Iran, Israel and the US are dying to send drones and bomb the shit out of them, why risk it? The cargo can't be that valuable to their nuclear facility. They have all the equipment to enrich uranium, don't they?
its just a crazy conspiracy notion someone thought up rather poorly

and if it actually panned out to be true Iran would be crazier than the world perceives the Kims of North Korea to be
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Old 03-15-2014, 03:50 AM   #555
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^ Based on what we know I would agree.

Here's the route for the flight it could have shadowed to hide from primary radar across India, etc. (going north sounds more likely though, in which case another flight may have worked)]
Thanks. But could you elaborate a little further for us noobs what it means/benefit by using another commercial flight to 'shadow' it?

1) Would radars not notice there is TWO, instead of 1 plane?
2) Would having two planes close to each other not even raise more alarm?
3) Would KLM 836 not notice another aircraft is following close behind and sneak for help / clarification?
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Old 03-15-2014, 03:55 AM   #556
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Large police presence at the pilots home. They've finally entered the home so let's see if there's any clues from there search.

And I found it a bit odd that the Russian ambassador attended the PM's press conference. Not sure what interest Russia has in all this. And I've heard the Chinese are pissed and want to send their own experts to search for the plane because they're not convinced with what the Malaysians are feeding the world.
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Old 03-15-2014, 04:02 AM   #557
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Thanks. But could you elaborate a little further for us noobs what it means/benefit by using another commercial flight to 'shadow' it?

1) Would radars not notice there is TWO, instead of 1 plane?
2) Would having two planes close to each other not even raise more alarm?
3) Would KLM 836 not notice another aircraft is following close behind and sneak for help / clarification?
Because you would be flying without been detected by radar. Remember the MH plane had no transponder and was probably flying under 30,000ft. If it shadowed the KLM flight than it would have looked like one plane on rader and keep in mind the KLM flight would have been at a cruise altitude which would be 35,000+ so there was plenty of space between the two aircraft's.

Drug runners are notorious for shadowing planes to get in and out of the US.
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Old 03-15-2014, 04:08 AM   #558
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edt: ^ someone mentioned that KLM 836 was at 30,000, I'm not sure if that's true or not but since MH370 was known to be at 29,500 that would be a pretty ideal gap for picking them up.

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What's the logic of stealing cargo and landing it in Iran, Israel and the US are dying to send drones and bomb the shit out of them, why risk it? The cargo can't be that valuable to their nuclear facility. They have all the equipment to enrich uranium, don't they?
No clue, I'm not familiar with the Iranians. If you want an even crazier theory someone could be setting up the Iranians to have Israel and the USA bomb the shit out of them.

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its just a crazy conspiracy notion someone thought up rather poorly
The guy it comes from seems to have some pretty solid sources and be pretty knowledgable. IIRC he's worked in plane security for 13+ years or something.

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Thanks. But could you elaborate a little further for us noobs what it means/benefit by using another commercial flight to 'shadow' it?

1) Would radars not notice there is TWO, instead of 1 plane?
2) Would having two planes close to each other not even raise more alarm?
3) Would KLM 836 not notice another aircraft is following close behind and sneak for help / clarification?
1) Radar isn't exact, by positioning MH370 near enough to the other plane (keeping the other commercial flight between MH370 and the ATC makes it even better) it's likely the ATC won't pick them up on radar.
2) Only if they get detected, which it sounds like there's a good chance they wouldn't be.
3) With the MH 370 transponder working, KLM 836 would see them and their collision warnings would likely sound. With the transponder off, they could see KLM 836, while remaining unseen themselves.
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Old 03-15-2014, 04:20 AM   #559
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Being briefed by Malaysia officials they believe most likely location for MH370 is on land somewhere near Chinese/Kyrgyz border.
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Old 03-15-2014, 04:23 AM   #560
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That really narrows down the search area though, that's a pretty short border. Explains why Russia is paying attention now, that's starting to get close to their turf.
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Old 03-15-2014, 04:47 AM   #561
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^ Based on what we know I would agree.

Here's the route for the flight it could have shadowed to hide from primary radar across India, etc. (going north sounds more likely though, in which case another flight may have worked)

you will have to be extremely close to the other aircraft in order to be able to "hide" under it's shadow, especially when you are a 300t aircraft - not a Cessna Baron or Citation that drug runners use

So close it would activate the TCAS (Traffic Collision Avoidance System) on the KLM Aircraft, in which the pilots would call the ground to ask about the other aircraft trailing them. (keep in mind too that the aircraft would show up as a blip on the KLM Aircraft's ND)
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Old 03-15-2014, 04:58 AM   #562
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The TCAS relies on the transponders, which we already know was shut off on the MH plane. I'm not familiar with what an ATC sees on their screens, but presumably the transponder info is the main thing. Even if they do get a hit on radar extremely close to the other plane, with no transponder data they may just pass it off as glitch or something. Especially if they have other planes taking off and landing, they might be inclined to not pay as much attention to a plane just passing through their airspace. This is just speculation though, I'm not familiar enough with what ATC systems show you or what their protocols might be.

Either way, it sounds like the plane went north-northwest, not northwest, assuming the latest info given to the media is correct.
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Old 03-15-2014, 05:59 AM   #563
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Not sure what interest Russia has in all this. And I've heard the Chinese are pissed and want to send their own experts to search for the plane because they're not convinced with what the Malaysians are feeding the world.
if you recall there were some terrorist bombings just before the olympics and that issue with the chechens has been going on for some time
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No clue, I'm not familiar with the Iranians. If you want an even crazier theory someone could be setting up the Iranians to have Israel and the USA bomb the shit out of them.
I could see that being less crazy than Iran doing it but even then i think Iran would notice an unidentified aircraft entering their airspace (hell they shot down us drones even a stealth one)


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The guy it comes from seems to have some pretty solid sources and be pretty knowledgable. IIRC he's worked in plane security for 13+ years or something.
that may be but flight/national security are still two different things.
Common sense would suggest Iran would have to have gone batshit crazy to green light an attack on them in such a way with how they've been tiptoeing so intensely already with their enrichment it would be for them to just throw that all out the door and do something so stupid

iran doesnt need any nuclear tech anymore they've got the capability to make a nuke, hell its rumored they may already have a nuke (according to some in the US military and israel) the only thing stopping them from doing it out in the open isn't the tech, its because they'll be bombed when they accelerate their enrichment

I'm not saying his idea is 100% impossible i'm just saying it seems to be pretty close to it
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Old 03-15-2014, 09:22 AM   #564
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Shadowing a flight seems really far fetched, but I suppose not impossible. I still think they were whale watching 100 feet off the deck on their way to their favourite island destination with a 7000' strip. Mind you this would kill their airspeed/efficiency and their range would not be nearly as far.

As for blips on the radar. Birds can show a return on a radar screen, so erroneous returns do happen.
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Old 03-15-2014, 10:28 AM   #565
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The full transcript of the Malaysian PM's statement if anyone is interested

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Old 03-15-2014, 10:45 AM   #566
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Can someone explain civilian radar? If they disappeared from civilian radar, did they use military radar to figure out the changes in altitudes?
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Old 03-15-2014, 10:59 AM   #567
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Public posts from the pilots FB page indicate that he was unhappy with the Barisan Nasional, who won the Malaysian elections last May (apparently they have been in power for quite a while). He also posted saying that it was going to be his last post on FB shortly before going to vote. The day before the plane was highjacked the main leader of the political opposition (supported by the pilot) in Malaysia was convicted on sodomy charges.

This provides potential motivation for the pilot to either act alone or to work with another group who have their own motivations, he could make the current government look bad by being unable to locate the missing plane, seeing as its not rocket science to know they would be leading the SAR effort.
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Old 03-15-2014, 11:45 AM   #568
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The fact that the Malaysians seem to be hiding something and if it indeed was hijacked, it could be possible that the Malaysians possibly overreacted when the systems began turning off and then the plane went off course. Could the Malaysians have possibly shot down the plane?
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Old 03-15-2014, 12:20 PM   #569
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The fact that the Malaysians seem to be hiding something and if it indeed was hijacked, it could be possible that the Malaysians possibly overreacted when the systems began turning off and then the plane went off course. Could the Malaysians have possibly shot down the plane?
If the Malaysian gov did it to prevent terrorist attacks they would have said it by now. And the fact that now terrorist organization have take responsibility yet that's unlikely.

Maybe hijacked by the ploit?
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Old 03-15-2014, 01:39 PM   #570
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Large police presence at the pilots home. They've finally entered the home so let's see if there's any clues from there search.

And I found it a bit odd that the Russian ambassador attended the PM's press conference. Not sure what interest Russia has in all this. And I've heard the Chinese are pissed and want to send their own experts to search for the plane because they're not convinced with what the Malaysians are feeding the world.
And what interest do the Americans have in the search...?

I'm starting to think that maybe the plane flew South West into the middle of the Indian Ocean and crashed. I just don't see any other explanation how a plane and 200+ people just vanish in today's Global information network. I don't exactly know how far the South West the search effort has gone, but I think if the plane had enough fuel to go North West all the way to Iran, it could have just as easily gone South West into the middle of the ocean.
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Old 03-15-2014, 01:43 PM   #571
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Reading on other forums I find it interesting how people continue to think the plane flying over India is impossible, that the plane being landed is impossible, the plane not being seen is impossible, that the pilot highjacking it is impossible, when things initially thought to be very unlikely are now most likely true (like crossing Malaysia unnoticed). Hell, prior to 9/11 most people would have said that highjacking multiple planes to slam them into buildings is impossible.

At this point, I would say it's foolish to discount anything within the physical and technological capabilities of the plane and only the plane.

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Maybe hijacked by the ploit?
To date, excluding 9/11, apparently 30% of the hijackings at cruise have been done the pilot or first officer. With the timing of the disappearance, the way in which the systems were disabled, and the route it looks like was taken, it's looking pretty likely to have been one of those two.
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Old 03-15-2014, 01:50 PM   #572
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And what interest do the Americans have in the search...?

I'm starting to think that maybe the plane flew South West into the middle of the Indian Ocean and crashed. I just don't see any other explanation how a plane and 200+ people just vanish in today's Global information network. I don't exactly know how far the South West the search effort has gone, but I think if the plane had enough fuel to go North West all the way to Iran, it could have just as easily gone South West into the middle of the ocean.
Why couldn't it vanish? The areas that the satellite has narrowed it down to are hardly high tech, there's a whole pile of sweet crap all in most of that region. Do you think some rural farmer is gonna go contact the authorities just because he saw a plane fly by early in the morning? It wouldn't say it would be terribly difficult to hide 240 people in the desert in the middle of nowhere. It's not like they're saying it flew over New York and landed somewhere in central park.
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Old 03-15-2014, 01:55 PM   #573
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Why couldn't it vanish? The areas that the satellite has narrowed it down to are hardly high tech, there's a whole pile of sweet crap all in most of that region. Do you think some rural farmer is gonna go contact the authorities just because he saw a plane fly by early in the morning? It wouldn't say it would be terribly difficult to hide 240 people in the desert in the middle of nowhere. It's not like they're saying it flew over New York and landed somewhere in central park.
I wasn't talking about someone seeing a plane fly by. I'm talking about landing the plane in Iran or wherever and hiding it there. Do they execute 200+ people and then just hang onto the plane for future use? It sounds like pulling off something like this would take quite a bit of planning and everything would have to go right. What's the reward? A Boeing 777?
You'd think if someone is willing to do all that work they would do it for something a little bit more valuable. I don't know how much a plane costs nowadays... price list from Boeing suggests they are $300mil? What's it worth on the black market... $50mil?
I mean $50mil is a ton of money, but in the grand scheme of things, highjacking a plane and killing 200+ people over it doesn't sound plausible.

http://www.boeing.com/boeing/commercial/prices/
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Old 03-15-2014, 01:58 PM   #574
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I'd agree with the above, i'm going along with the theory of pilot interception. The fact the radio transmissions were clear and calm before hand. Then right at transfer of control from one controller to another, all communications stop. That is huge in my mind. Then the plane disappears. They knew what they were doing.
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Old 03-15-2014, 02:11 PM   #575
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man this story is going to make for a good fucking movie in the near future.
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