The Vancouver Canucks aren’t hedging their bet on Thatcher Demko. They’re going all in.

The Canucks have reportedly signed the 25-year-old goaltender to a five-year, $25 million contract, as first reported by TSN’s Frank Seravalli. The $5 million cap hit would tie Demko with Robin Lehner and Semyon Varlamov as the NHL’s 12th-highest-paid goalie by AAV.

Anytime a contract is signed there’s a tendency to immediately rate the deal either as a steal or as a huge overpayment. However, this extension feels like it slots as a fair deal for both sides — it’s a big bet that clocks in at a reasonable valuation.

From the Canucks’ perspective, they’re able to lock in their No. 1 goalie through his age 26 to 30 campaigns, the prime of his career. The cap hit sets a high bar — Demko is being paid as a high-end starter now — the potential upside comes from the fact that the club’s bought three UFA years at a manageable rate. Had Demko instead signed a two- or three-year bridge deal, it would have walked him directly to unrestricted free agency. Therefore, if Demko maintained his stellar form through a hypothetical bridge deal, it would have cost the Canucks a higher cap hit and forced them to sign him deeper into his early 30s on his next contract.

The front office is making a calculated gamble that he’s the real deal as a consistent, high-end starter. They’re betting on him now rather than kicking the can down the road where he could be more expensive if he retains his elite form from this season.

Meanwhile, Demko’s camp locks in long-term security. The 2014 second-round pick has just 62 career NHL games under his belt, and while he unquestionably has the talent and ability level to be a top netminder in this league, it’s an incredibly volatile position. There have certainly been a few promising goalies, like Carter Hart (not to write him off, he’s still young), Matt Murray, Jordan Binnington and Tristan Jarry, who have tapered off after performing at an elite level in small samples. On that basis, it makes a lot of sense for Demko to sign a contract like this that will set him up financially for life.

This extension does carry fascinating implications for the Canucks’ cap situation. By going long rather than bridging, they’re essentially paying an elevated rate for next season where they were already strapped for space in exchange for the benefit of long-term flexibility. In other words, they were willing to pay a premium for long-term gain even though it makes the forecast for next season more challenging.

This would suggest that the organization may not view 2021-22 as an all-in year — the way they handled this negotiation suggests they believe their window opens in two years rather than next season. That tracks with Jim Benning’s comments last month where he stated that it could take two years for the team to be truly competitive. When considering that 2022-23 is the big year where inefficient contracts peel off the books, this view on the window makes sense even if might not align with their previous contract work like bridging Brock Boeser rather than going long with him.

There’s no question that the extension makes this offseason’s cap dance all the more interesting.

With Demko’s new deal factored in, the Canucks will enter the offseason with 14 players signed at $58.4 million, per CapFriendly, leaving just north of $23 million in space.



(CapFriendly)

That may sound like a decent chunk, but the flexibility disappears very rapidly. For starters, $1.7 million could get chopped off the top from performance bonuses for Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes’ entry-level contracts. After that, the Canucks will need to re-sign those two franchise players.

Let’s walk through a hypothetical exercise to illustrate what the situation could look like. The goal here isn’t to be precise about exact numbers since we’re making projections about RFAs that haven’t signed yet — so don’t get caught up over how Player X or Y should be cheaper or more expensive than illustrated here — the idea is simply to get a general snapshot.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman posited that the Canucks have budgeted roughly $15 million total for Pettersson and Hughes on bridge deals. If we presume that in conjunction with modest show-me deals for Adam Gaudette and Olli Juolevi, plus Vasili Podkolzin coming over on his ELC, the club runs into a very tight jam. Vancouver would have roughly $3.52 million in space with 19 players signed after these RFA projections and the potential performance bonus overage. That still doesn’t sound too bad; the problem is the number of holes that would remain on this roster:



(CapFriendly)

In this scenario, the Canucks would still need to add a top-four defender to replace Alex Edler. That alone would take up the majority of the club’s remaining cap space. Given how tight it gets, you have to wonder if the Canucks are really just better off letting Tanner Pearson, who’s not currently factored into this projection, walk to free agency, especially since this roster doesn’t look contention-ready.

Now there are obviously ways for the Canucks to clear additional space. If the Canucks can’t shed Jake Virtanen’s salary on the trade market, for instance, a buyout would wipe out $2.5 million of his $2.55 million cap hit. There’s also the possibility of demoting Loui Eriksson to the AHL for the maximum buriable relief (projected to be $1.125 million) and the fact that the club will lose someone to Seattle in the expansion draft.

Again, this is why we’re only presenting this as a general snapshot rather than a precise calculation of their exact situation. There are moving parts, the situation is fluid.

That said, the general snapshot is clear: It’s unlikely the Canucks will have the flexibility this offseason to make substantial upgrades after re-signing their RFAs.

Their hands will very likely be tied again this summer — the team may not be ready to take a significant step forward next year. The Canucks appear to recognize that because the Demko extension works to bolster the club’s long-term cap situation at the expense of their short-term flexibility.